Trump lost the midterms. Did Iran win?
Negar Mojtahedi
Iran International
Democrats' sweeping midterm gains have weakened Donald Trump at home. But do they amount to the strategic victory that some in Tehran are claiming?
Iran International
Democrats' sweeping midterm gains have weakened Donald Trump at home. But do they amount to the strategic victory that some in Tehran are claiming?
“You lost the war and the election,” Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei declared on X, mocking what he portrayed as turmoil within the Trump administration and questioning who in Washington should receive Tehran's warning against another war.
“So who exactly in Washington do we need to get this message across to?” he asked.
Iranian establishment newspapers have also been quick to celebrate. Hamshahri declared “The Shadow of Iran Over America's Elections,” while another outlet depicted Trump as a hostage, invoking the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran in November 1979.
But Trump remains president, with substantial authority over military and foreign policy decisions, even as a Democratic Congress gains greater power to scrutinize and constrain his administration.
Tehran's victory narrative
Behnam Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the Islamic Republic's political messaging is central to its strategy.
“The strategy is the propaganda,” he told Iran International’s Eye for Iran podcast.
Unable to match the United States or Israel in conventional military strength, Tehran has relied on asymmetric tactics, economic disruption and political narratives, Taleblu argued.
Conservative political commentator Peter Roff warned that the Islamic Republic may have misjudged the consequences of Democratic control of Congress.
“The mullahs in Iran are the second biggest losers because they bet on change of control in Congress, changing the conduct of the war. And that's not going to happen,” he told Eye for Iran.
While Congress retains powers over funding, oversight and legislation, Roff argued that the election would not fundamentally constrain Trump's conduct toward Tehran.
A weakened president, in other words, is not necessarily one unwilling to act.
Did Iran cost Republicans the election?
Republican political strategist Albert Eisenberg acknowledged that the conflict contributed to the losses but rejected attempts to separate it from broader dissatisfaction with the administration.
“Anybody telling you that the Iran conflict didn't factor in is lying. Anybody who's telling you that the Iran conflict was the only factor is definitely lying,” Eisenberg said.
The war, he argued, accelerated an existing backlash, particularly because the White House failed to explain its objectives.
Joel Rubin, a Democratic foreign policy strategist and former deputy assistant secretary of state under President Barack Obama, argued that affordability, tariffs and economic uncertainty were already weighing on American households before the conflict.
He accused Vice President JD Vance of using Israel and the war to deflect responsibility for the administration's broader failures.
“What Vice President Vance did was demonize Israel for his own administration's failures to execute a war effectively, to explain it to the American people, to prepare for it, to get it through Congress,” Rubin said.
Washington's unresolved Iran strategy
Beyond the election results lies a more fundamental problem for Trump: the absence of a clearly communicated strategy for what comes after military pressure on the Islamic Republic.
Despite their disagreements over the midterms, analysts from both parties questioned whether the administration had adequately explained its objectives to Americans.
Eisenberg argued that Washington had failed to highlight the experiences of Americans affected by Iranian-backed attacks or the plight of women and minorities under the Islamic Republic.
Roff echoed that criticism: “The president has not made the geostrategic case to the American people, and he needs to.”.
Rubin warned that mounting political pressure could instead push Trump toward abandoning the confrontation without securing arrangements to address Tehran's nuclear program or regional activities.
Taleblu identified a related concern. Washington, he argued, has achieved significant military gains against Iranian nuclear and missile infrastructure without defining the political outcome those operations are intended to secure.
Regime change, containment, a limited agreement and deconfliction remain possible objectives, but the administration has yet to establish a coherent path toward any of them, he said.
“Just because the shooting isn't active doesn't mean there isn't a war,” Taleblu warned.
The danger of miscalculation
Tehran may see Trump's domestic troubles as an opportunity to prolong the confrontation or wait for a more favorable political environment in Washington. But that calculation carries risks.
Trump could seek a negotiated settlement, maintain existing pressure or pursue additional military action. The election alone does not determine which course he will choose.
Nor does Democratic control of Congress necessarily settle the question. Lawmakers could challenge the administration's handling of the war and seek to limit further military action, but their ability to change its course remains uncertain.
Taleblu warned that the Islamic Republic remains motivated by revenge and survival, making its behavior difficult to predict even during periods of reduced military activity.
For now, Tehran has gained a propaganda opportunity from Trump's electoral defeat. Whether that translates into a lasting strategic advantage remains uncertain.
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Iran signaled a willingness to negotiate an end to its confrontation with the United States on Monday, but insisted Washington must first lift measures imposed since the Islamabad understanding, as disputes over nuclear activities and control of the Strait of Hormuz continued.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had instructed officials to end the country's prolonged state of uncertainty between war and peace, opening the door to negotiations.
"The supreme leader ordered us to end the no-war, no-peace situation," Pezeshkian said. "We can hold talks with dignity and bring the matter to an end with dignity."
The president also called for changes in how Iran is governed, saying the country's resources should not leave its people struggling to meet basic needs.
"I cannot accept that anyone in the country goes to bed hungry," Pezeshkian said.
Iran sets conditions for two-day proposal
The president's remarks came as the foreign ministry outlined conditions for a proposed diplomatic arrangement that it said could restore regional security within two days.
Iran would fulfill its commitments under the proposal if Washington lifted sanctions, the naval blockade and other measures imposed since the Islamabad understanding, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said.
The proposal was a shortened version of an earlier seven-day plan, Baghaei said, adding that Qatar and Pakistan remained in regular contact with both sides.
The demands drew a sharp contrast with Washington's position after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Iran's terms as unacceptable.
Baghaei rejected the criticism and accused Washington of imposing unreasonable conditions on negotiations.
"We have made it very clear that if the United States meets the Islamic Republic's demands, security will return to the region within two days," Baghaei said.
Nuclear disputes remain unresolved
Iran will not transfer its enriched uranium abroad, and inspections of nuclear facilities damaged by US attacks cannot proceed under existing conditions, Baghaei said separately in an interview with Lebanon's Al Mayadeen television.
The spokesman said International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors had visited the Bushehr nuclear power plant several days earlier and that Iran remained in contact with the UN nuclear watchdog.
However, he argued that the attacks had complicated Iran's ability to fulfill its safeguards obligations.
The remarks coincided with comments from Iranian lawmakers about the country's nuclear capabilities and future policy.
Esmail Kowsari said US strikes during the 12-day war had destroyed aboveground buildings near nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan but had not damaged centrifuges or uranium enriched to 60%.
Another lawmaker, Hamidreza Gudarzi, argued that Iran should acquire nuclear weapons to deter future threats, while acknowledging that decisions on changes to the country's nuclear doctrine rested with senior authorities.
Hormuz dispute and regional diplomacy
Beyond the nuclear issue, Iran and the United States continued to dispute the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Revolutionary Guards denied that US forces had cleared any naval mines from the strategic waterway.
"No war mines have been cleared from the Strait of Hormuz, and this claim is an outright lie," Revolutionary Guards spokesperson Hossein Mohebi said.
The disagreement came as regional governments sought to prevent further military escalation.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had told US President Donald Trump during a recent telephone conversation that Ankara opposed another round of attacks on Iran and favored a diplomatic solution.
The United Arab Emirates also warned that a comprehensive settlement between Washington and Tehran remained difficult.
The consequences of the war could persist for years, requiring stronger defense capabilities and sustained diplomatic engagement, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said.
China pursued its own diplomatic contacts, with special envoy Zhai Jun meeting Iranian security official Ali Bagheri Kani during a regional tour that also includes Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Beijing emphasized that the widening Middle East conflict could not be resolved through military force.
Monday's developments left Iran and the United States expressing sharply different conditions for ending their confrontation, with nuclear disputes, sanctions and maritime security remaining central obstacles to a negotiated settlement.
Task Force Iron Gate, a new US team targeting weapons shipments and other illicit flows across Iran’s land borders and the Caspian Sea, may not fully close Iran’s northern supply routes but could make the arms and equipment Tehran needs harder to obtain.
Success will depend less on Washington’s ability to track shipments than on persuading governments, banks and suppliers to stop them.
According to CENTCOM’s November 7 announcement, Iron Gate consists of roughly 20 civilian and military personnel based in Tampa, coordinating with other US agencies.
It follows a naval blockade that CENTCOM estimates has prevented more than $25 billion in crude exports, giving Tehran greater incentive to develop alternative supply routes.
The task force adds coordination capacity, but its announcement offers no indication of new authority to board vessels in the Caspian or access neighboring countries’ ports.
Washington’s leverage lies upstream
A June CSIS assessment argues that Iran needs imported machine tools, electronics and engines to rebuild its military industries. It identifies the Caspian and Pakistan as possible alternatives to disrupted procurement through the United Arab Emirates.
Washington’s strongest leverage may lie with suppliers before those goods reach the region. A distributor with customers in Europe or access to American finance has more to lose than an Iranian shipping company already under sanctions.
Finding that distributor and giving its government evidence of a prohibited sale may achieve more than tracking the vessel carrying the goods.
In September 2024, the State Department designated Russian shipping companies and identified vessels it said transported Iranian military equipment across the Caspian to Russia.
Those measures targeted supplies leaving Iran rather than entering it, but provide an enforcement precedent. They can expose suppliers and discourage businesses from handling their cargo, while offering less leverage over operators whose owners and host governments accept the consequences.
Iron Gate’s better opportunity lies in equipment Iran struggles to replace. A factory awaiting an essential component may remain idle even while food imports grow.
The distinction matters: restricting military procurement does not require closing ordinary commerce, and rising trade volumes would not necessarily mean the task force had failed.
Russia’s role limits US options
Russia poses the hardest problem. Its military relationship with Iran gives Moscow reasons to keep transport connections open, limiting Washington’s prospects of securing cooperation along a major northern route.
In an October analysis for the Yorktown Institute, Nikita Smagin describes expanding Caspian commerce alongside shipping shortages, port limitations and rising freight costs.
The corridor offers Tehran relief but lacks the capacity to replace its southern gateways. That does not mean it cannot carry smaller volumes of militarily important equipment and components.
These constraints could make individual shipments more vulnerable to disruption. They also complicate any assessment of enforcement: congestion, shallow water and seasonal conditions can slow deliveries without American intervention.
Pressure could leave Tehran more reliant on Moscow if other suppliers withdraw while Russian routes stay open.
Iran would then have less room to bargain, while the military partnership Washington hopes to weaken could survive. Economic dependence and military supply would not necessarily move in the direction Washington intends.
Neighbors need different bargains
Kazakhstan illustrates the tension between financial pressure and regional transport ambitions. In May, Deputy Prime Minister Serik Jumangarin said payment risks had stalled contracts with Iran.
A month later, Kazakhstan signed an agreement for a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port.
Although the port is on Iran’s southern coast, the project demonstrates Astana’s wider interest in maintaining transport links through Iran. Financial pressure can discourage traders even while their government pursues closer connections.
Washington may therefore have more influence over specific prohibited transactions than over Kazakhstan’s broader commitment to those links.
Azerbaijan suspended cargo crossings on March 5, 2026, after accusing Iran of a drone attack on its territory, then reopened them on March 9.
That episode was a security dispute rather than a sanctions-enforcement test, so it does not establish how Baku would respond to US requests.
The brief closure nevertheless cautions against assuming Azerbaijan would sustain a broad interruption of trade. Requests to inspect specific suspect shipments may have better prospects than demands to shut a major route indefinitely.
Turkmenistan also sees value in keeping Iranian routes open. Its foreign ministry reported talks in September 2025 on increasing transit cargo and developing the China–Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Iran railway.
These projects are not evidence of wrongdoing, but they help explain why Ashgabat might resist sweeping restrictions.
Requests to stop weapons shipments backed by clear evidence may find a more receptive audience, although the task force announcement offers no indication that Turkmenistan has agreed to cooperate.
The test is military production
Iranian buyers can change intermediaries more easily than they can replace scarce equipment or technical expertise. Enforcement needs to follow those dependencies rather than simply add names to sanctions lists.
Useful measures of success would include documented procurement failures, interrupted payments, longer waits for critical components and confirmed interceptions of prohibited shipments.
The ultimate test is whether those obstacles constrain the restoration of Iranian military production.
Iron Gate’s best chance lies in restricting difficult-to-replace military inputs while securing cooperation neighboring governments can sustain.
Otherwise, Washington risks making trade more cumbersome—and Iran more dependent on Russia—while leaving its essential military supply relationships intact.
Severe weather and flooding across Iran have killed four people, injured 11 and cut off access to 190 villages, with emergency teams responding to widespread damage, officials said on Sunday.
Severe weather and flooding across Iran have killed four people, injured 11 and cut off access to 190 villages, with emergency teams responding to widespread damage, officials said on Sunday, November 8.
Two of the fatalities were caused by lightning strikes in Khuzestan province, national emergency services spokesman Mojtaba Lashgari told ISNA.
Lashgari said the 11 injuries were recorded in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Khuzestan and Bushehr provinces since November 6.
The storms also caused fallen trees and electricity poles, road closures, traffic accidents, building damage and temporary disruptions to water, power and telephone services, he added.
Heavy rainfall cut off access to 190 villages in Lorestan province, while damage to gas distribution lines and electricity infrastructure disrupted supplies to several communities, Mehr news agency reported.
Borujerd Governor Ghodratollah Valadi said six villages in the county faced flooding risks, with an evacuation ordered in Tang-e Mohammad Hajji because of the threat of landslides.
In Aligudarz, flooding along the Zez River stranded nomadic communities and destroyed much of their livestock and property, Tasnim news agency reported.
Rescue workers also evacuated seven women and children trapped by flooding in Lordegan.
Floodwaters reached Chelchelak village in Khuzestan and inundated streets in Suq, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province.
Heavy rain flooded streets in Bushehr and Bandar Genaveh on Sunday, while footage showed the Qom River overflowing.
The Kandovan road between Karaj and Chalus experienced six floods within 48 hours, with road crews clearing mud and debris to reopen affected sections.
In Tehran province, water levels rose in the Kan River, with floodwaters flowing through its riverbed. Tehran emergency services said no injuries had been reported from rainfall or flooding in the province's mountainous areas.
National Crisis Management Organization spokesman Omid Mohtarami said around 1,600 people had received direct emergency assistance.
Mohtarami said 18,000 operational teams were working in flood-affected areas, with another 8,000 support teams on standby.
Red weather warnings remained in effect in several provinces, with maritime red alerts issued for Gilan and Mazandaran for Monday, November 9.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned ships against cooperating with US forces after reporting three tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthis targeted Saudi Arabia and Israel warned of unfinished operations against Iran on Sunday.
The Revolutionary Guards said three oil tankers caught fire after taking what they described as an unauthorized route through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Guards linked the fires to vessels disabling their navigation and identification systems and cooperating with US forces, warning that ships defying transit rules and accompanying the US military would face similar consequences.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations center separately reported that a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while sailing outbound through the strait on Saturday. All crew members were safe, and no environmental damage was reported.
UKMTO also received a report of another tanker catching fire near Oman's Musandam Peninsula, prompting the evacuation of its crew. Authorities were investigating both reports.
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia
Saudi-led coalition forces intercepted two ballistic missiles launched toward Riyadh by Yemen's Houthis, followed by two cruise missiles targeting Riyadh and southern Saudi Arabia, according to coalition statements.
The coalition also reported intercepting a Houthi drone aimed at the kingdom's southern region.
Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said falling debris damaged an Aramco administrative building in Riyadh without causing casualties. Reuters reported that windows were blown out across several floors of the building.
A separate tower in Riyadh's King Abdullah Financial District was also damaged by a projectile, Reuters reported, citing witnesses and people briefed on the matter.
The Houthis later announced that they had targeted King Khalid International Airport, Saudi Aramco oil storage tanks and a financial center in the Saudi capital.
Israel warns Iran over nuclear activities
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said the country's mission against Iran's nuclear threat was not yet complete, maintaining that Tehran was renewing efforts to acquire nuclear weapons.
"Regarding Iran, the mission is not yet complete," Katz said at a memorial ceremony for soldiers killed in Operation Kadesh.
Katz also warned Hezbollah against joining a possible Iranian attack on Israel, saying the group would face a severe military response and lose additional territory.
Iranian military officials issued warnings of their own.
An adviser to the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace force said Iran had sufficient weapons reserves to defend itself for years and was continuing to reverse-engineer foreign military equipment.
Ali Balali warned that any move by Iran's adversaries would trigger a "devastating response," adding that the country's armed forces had "their fingers on the trigger."
Separately, Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi dismissed a new US initiative to restrict overland routes used to transfer weapons and sanctioned goods.
Mohebi said Task Force Iron Gate, established by US Central Command, would fail to isolate Iran from its neighbors.
Iranians expressed anger and grief over the execution of three protesters and new death sentences against others, criticizing the United States and the international community for their response in messages sent to Iran International.
Iran's judiciary announced on November 8 that Hassan Divband, Hamid Kazemi and Reza Zanganeh, three people arrested during the January protests in Karaj, had been executed.
The executions came alongside reports of additional death sentences against protesters in the northeastern city of Mashhad.
Abolfazl Sedaghat, 20, Matin Farnian and Vahid Khedrikhah were sentenced to death on charges of moharebeh, or "waging war against God," in a joint case, according to the human rights organization HRANA.
Death sentences were also issued against Ali Zaghi and Ilya Akbari, bringing the number of protesters sentenced to death in the so-called Shandiz case to six, according to earlier reporting.
'We can no longer bear the news of executions'
"We woke up this morning to the news that three more innocent young men had been executed. I can no longer bear hearing about executions," a resident of Isfahan wrote to Iran International.
The executions prompted messages of grief and anger from people across Iran, many expressing concern about the future of younger generations.
"Every morning when we wake up, we are confronted with news of our beloved children being killed. You have taken life away from us," a Tehran resident wrote, addressing Iranian authorities.
Another from Dezful urged fellow Iranians to consider the future facing their children.
"Look at your beloved child. How can you bring yourself to leave the Islamic Republic as their inheritance? How can you bear to leave your child in line for execution and torture?" the citizen wrote.
Another, referring to discussion of possible US strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, said the country's infrastructure was not their primary concern.
This citizen argued that the Islamic Republic's continued rule was destroying the country's infrastructure every day, from electricity and water supplies to the lives of its young people.
Questioning US response and call for continued solidarity
Several messages sent to Iran International criticized Washington's response to the executions, with some directly addressing US President Donald Trump.
"Do the human rights-defending Democrats in America not see all these crimes in Iran?" one asked, referring to the executions in Karaj.
Another described the executions as retaliation by the Islamic Republic against the Iranian people and questioned Trump's response.
"The oppressive system of the Islamic Republic cannot reach your soldiers, so it takes revenge on the Iranian people through executions. Isn't it time to fulfill your promise?" reads a message.
Other messages emphasized solidarity among Iranians and the importance of continuing efforts to seek justice for those executed.
A resident of Bandar Abbas expressed grief over the executions while thanking Iranians abroad for organizing demonstrations.
"One eye mourns the brave compatriots who lose their lives at the gallows every day, while the other sheds tears for the remarkable gatherings of compassionate Iranians who, despite all their difficulties, put their homeland first," the resident wrote.
A Tehran resident described the three executed protesters as "three stars whose names will live forever" and expressed determination to continue their cause.
"Victory is certain," the audience wrote.
Amnesty International warns over use of death penalty
Iranian authorities have intensified their crackdown in recent months through widespread summonses and arrests, lengthy prison sentences and a sharp increase in executions.
The growing use of capital punishment has also drawn criticism from international human rights organizations.
Iranian authorities are using the death penalty as a tool to suppress dissent, Diana Eltahawy, Amnesty International's deputy regional director, warned on October 13.
“The arbitrary executions of these five young men serves as another chilling reminder of how the Iranian authorities weaponize the death penalty to render the cost of dissent so high that it terrorizes the population into silence and deters further mass uprisings challenging their repressive decades-long rule,” she said.
The latest executions and death sentences have renewed expressions of grief and anger among Iranians, with messages to Iran International reflecting both frustration over the international response and determination to continue seeking justice for those killed.
