Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Qatar is securing long-term supplies of US liquefied natural gas to protect revenues against disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while pursuing mediation between Tehran and Washington to end the war.
The country’s dependence on the waterway leaves its gas industry exposed to prolonged shipping disruptions. For state-owned QatarEnergy, buying supplies produced outside the Persian Gulf offers a way to earn trading income when its own exports are constrained.
The new contracts will begin delivering in 2030 or later. They offer protection against future losses, but cannot restore shipments from Qatar’s damaged facilities or reopen its export route.
The risks were underscored on Friday, when a Qatari LNG carrier was struck by “unidentified objects” in the Persian Gulf, the same day Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran aimed at reaching a deal between Iran and the United States.
The Al Mayeda was hit Friday evening, its owner Nakilat said Sunday. No crew members were injured or environmental damage reported, and the vessel remained operational.
Qatar condemned the attack as a “dangerous act” threatening maritime navigation and global energy supplies, saying investigations were underway to identify those responsible.
War exposes Qatar’s dependence on Hormuz
Qatar is particularly vulnerable to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. LNG accounts for half of its foreign-currency export revenues, and shipments to markets beyond the Persian Gulf must pass through the waterway.
Unlike some neighboring oil exporters, Qatar has no pipeline route capable of replacing those shipments. Its oil exports amounted to just 530,000 barrels per day last year, leaving its foreign-currency revenues largely dependent on gas.
According to official Qatari government statistics, the country exported 79 million tonnes of LNG last year, supplying 17% of global LNG consumption. Another 20 billion cubic metres of natural gas, equivalent to approximately 15 million tonnes, was delivered to the UAE and Oman through the Dolphin pipeline. By volume, LNG accounted for nearly 84% of Qatar’s total gas exports.
Qatar was forced to almost completely halt LNG exports for three months starting in March, with shipments gradually recovering from June. According to Kpler data, however, it exported only 4.58 million tonnes in the third quarter, less than a quarter of the volume recorded a year earlier.
September exports reached 1.6 million tonnes, the highest monthly level since the war began. That was still less than a quarter of the pre-war monthly average, with around one-third of shipments going to Kuwait and remaining within the Persian Gulf.
Damage to infrastructure has also been substantial. Iranian missile strikes in March damaged Ras Laffan’s liquefaction units, known as trains, 4 and 6, knocking 12.8 million tonnes of annual capacity offline—about 17% of Qatar’s pre-war capacity.
Energy Minister and QatarEnergy chief executive Saad al-Kaabi initially estimated repairs would take three to five years. In an October 29 interview with Reuters, he put the repair period at about three years.
QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on deliveries to Italy’s Edison until the end of December, the Italian company said on October 27. Shipping has also come under attack: in July, the LNG carrier Al Rekayyat was struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Qatar has ruled out a pipeline bypass on commercial and technical grounds. Kaabi said in September that transporting gas to another coast would require new liquefaction facilities, duplicating infrastructure already being built in Qatar. He has also warned that pipelines and associated facilities could themselves become targets.
US supplies offer protection against lost revenue
Qatar’s overseas investments predate the war, but its latest purchase agreements form part of a strategy to protect income against future shipping disruptions.
The first major overseas source is the Golden Pass LNG project in Texas. QatarEnergy owns a 70% stake, while ExxonMobil holds the remaining 30%. LNG production began on March 30, 2026.
The project has a total planned capacity of 18 million tonnes per year, giving QatarEnergy an equity share equivalent to 12.6 million tonnes of annual capacity once fully operational. The first train has a capacity of approximately 6 million tonnes per year, of which QatarEnergy’s share is 4.2 million tonnes.
The second element is long-term purchases from US producers. QatarEnergy signed two agreements with Cheniere Energy on October 22 to purchase a combined 4 million tonnes annually, split equally between its Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana and Corpus Christi terminal in Texas.
Deliveries will begin in the early 2030s and continue through 2054. One million tonnes of the annual Sabine Pass supply is conditional on a final investment decision for an expansion project.
A week later, QatarEnergy signed a 20-year agreement to purchase up to 3 million tonnes annually from Woodside’s Louisiana LNG project. QatarEnergy expects deliveries to begin in 2030, with volumes increasing as additional production units start operating.
Together, the agreements provide for up to 7 million tonnes annually.
The Cheniere purchase price is linked to the US Henry Hub gas benchmark, plus a fixed fee. Both companies’ agreements provide for free-on-board deliveries, meaning QatarEnergy arranges transportation.
Lower US gas prices can create opportunities for profitable sales into Europe and Asia, although returns depend on liquefaction fees, shipping costs and destination-market prices.
Kaabi told Reuters the purchases were intended to generate revenue during future Hormuz disruptions. He cautioned that US cargoes could not simply replace supplies under existing long-term contracts specifying particular export terminals and destinations.
QatarEnergy is also negotiating with Venture Global. Kaabi said he expected further 20- to 25-year supply agreements with US and other producers before the end of 2026.
Qatar has overseas options Iran lacks
Iran’s own gas sector is also under pressure, but it has far fewer options to offset damage through foreign investment and overseas projects.
According to the National Iranian Gas Company, attacks in March knocked around 230 million cubic metres per day of production capacity offline at four gas processing plants. Approximately 100 million cubic metres has since been restored.
That leaves around 130 million cubic metres per day unavailable, equivalent to about 16% of last year’s daily production. Iran already faces substantial gas shortages during colder months, and the company has warned that around 11 provinces could experience supply problems this winter.
Iran’s financial capacity to rebuild damaged infrastructure is limited, while foreign participation in its energy projects is virtually nonexistent. Qatar has substantially greater financial resources to repair its damaged LNG trains and invest overseas.
Those differences do not establish how long Tehran can sustain disruptions to shipping. They do, however, give Qatar more commercial options for managing the consequences.
QatarEnergy’s equity share of Golden Pass will represent 12.6 million tonnes of annual capacity once all three trains are operational, while the Cheniere and Woodside agreements provide for purchases of up to another 7 million tonnes annually.
Those volumes will become available gradually and remain modest compared with Qatar’s pre-war annual capacity of 77 million tonnes and its planned expansion to 142 million tonnes by 2030.
Overseas trading can help cushion the financial impact of disruption. But repairing Qatar’s production facilities and securing passage through Hormuz remain essential to restoring its own exports.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing US President Donald Trump to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday's midterm elections, but Trump wants to let negotiations play out for now, Axios reported Sunday, citing an Israeli and a US source.
The two leaders had a candid phone call Saturday about the state of US negotiations with Iran and how quickly to return to combat, according to the report.
The Israeli source described the call as "tough," while the US source called it "direct."
Trump is pursuing diplomatic efforts to restart negotiations with Tehran while preparing for a possible resumption of major military operations after the November 3 elections, according to the report.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that Trump had not decided whether to launch further strikes against Iran and preferred a diplomatic solution.
"He hasn't made a decision. I have no announcement in that regard with you today, and nor do we take any of it lightly," Rubio told reporters in Atlanta.
Trump told reporters Saturday that negotiations with Iran were "going fine" and that he was not "in much of a hurry," but said the United States still needed to "take care" of one or two Iranian nuclear sites.
"We can do that in 10 minutes. We have that planned. You can look at Pickaxe Mountain. We need to take care of that. We can do that very quickly," Trump said, referring to a suspected nuclear facility built into a mountain.
Iran considers US outreach
US Vice President JD Vance sent a letter last week to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, about the possibility of restarting negotiations.
Rezaei said Saturday that he had received and read the letter but had not responded, according to Iranian state media.
"I read the letter. I haven't yet responded. Their tone has completely changed," Rezaei said in remarks broadcast on Iranian television.
IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency also reported that Tehran continued to insist on its seven conditions being met by Washington, saying any position contradicting that framework was unacceptable.
Qatar-mediated talks continue
Qatari mediators met with Iranian officials Sunday for a third consecutive day in an effort to reach a deal to restart direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was discussing a proposal that could allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen within two days if Washington met Iranian conditions.
Araghchi said Sunday that consultations were continuing but had not produced a final agreement, stressing that progress depended on the United States responding to Iran's questions.
"We are making every effort in this regard and hope that the other side will demonstrate enough rationality to choose diplomacy over other paths," he said.
Iranian officials rejected nuclear negotiations, demanded acceptance of their conditions for ending the war and threatened military retaliation, despite continuing diplomatic contacts with Qatari mediators on Sunday.
Iranian officials rejected nuclear negotiations, demanded acceptance of their conditions for ending the war and threatened military retaliation, despite continuing diplomatic contacts with Qatari mediators on Sunday.
“The window for negotiations with our adversaries is now closed because they have nothing new to offer,” Ali Nikzad, deputy speaker of Iran's parliament, said on Sunday.
Nikzad accused what he called adversaries of repeatedly breaking commitments and attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. He said that renewed military action would trigger an “immediate, effective response without geographical limits.”
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, however, said consultations with Qatari mediators were progressing without a final agreement.
“Consultations with the mediators regarding the two-day plan are continuing and moving toward implementation, but we have not yet reached a definitive conclusion,” Araghchi said.
Washington keeps negotiations open
The United States remains open to negotiations but is prepared to pursue other options, Donald Blome, US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, said at the Manama Dialogue security forum in Bahrain, according to the Associated Press.
“The hand of negotiation has been extended, and those channels have continued to be open and active,” Blome said.
Blome warned that Washington could take a different course and would not allow Iran to threaten the region and global economy.
Iranian negotiators were in Doha for a third consecutive day of indirect talks aimed at ending the war with the United States and Israel, Reuters reported, citing an official briefed on the discussions.
Araghchi said the delegation had no plans to meet US officials directly.
Iran sets conditions and threatens retaliation
Iran will not negotiate with Washington until seven conditions announced by the secretary of its Supreme National Security Council are implemented, lawmaker Esmail Kowsari said Sunday.
Nikzad also demanded unconditional acceptance of those conditions, including Iran's proposed arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.
Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of parliament's National Security Committee, threatened a punitive response to hostile actions in the waterway.
Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said that another war could spread beyond the Middle East and said the military was shifting toward an offensive doctrine.
Defense Minister Mehrdad Akhlaghi said Iran was strengthening its military readiness and weapons production to respond to threats without geographical restrictions.
Calls grow to leave nuclear treaty
Lawmaker Nasser Pejmanfar urged Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, arguing that membership had brought no benefits.
Mohsen Araki, a member of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Discernment Council, separately called for reviewing Iran's membership, according to the Revolutionary Guards-affiliated Tasnim news agency.
The calls to reconsider Iran's nuclear treaty commitments add another obstacle to efforts to resolve the dispute through diplomacy.
Negotiations through Qatari mediators continue in Doha without a final agreement. Washington has kept the door open to talks, but Iranian officials insist that their seven conditions must be accepted before the war can end.
People across Iran say they are struggling to afford food, clothing and rent, while others face unpaid wages and falling business sales, according to messages sent to Iran International as year-on-year inflation hit 88.7% in October.
Messages describe mounting financial pressures on workers, pensioners, students, single mothers and small business owners, with some unable to meet basic needs and others facing unpaid wages and declining sales.
"I went to buy a piece of flat bread. All I got was a piece the size of my palm for 400,000 rials. I don't know how we're supposed to live," one resident wrote.
Iran's minimum monthly wage for 2026 was set at approximately 166 million rials ($61 at the current exchange rate of 2.72 million rials per US dollar).
A pensioner said their monthly income was insufficient to cover even 10 days of living expenses, illustrating the widening gap between household earnings and everyday costs.
Iran's annual inflation rate reached 76.8% in October, with prices rising 4.4% from the previous month, according to figures released by the Statistical Center of Iran.
The 88.7% year-on-year inflation rate means households had to spend an average of 88.7% more than in October 2025 to purchase the same basket of goods and services.
Food prices hit small businesses
Rising food prices have affected not only consumers but also small businesses facing a sharp decline in demand.
"Before the war, I used to sell 70 chickens every day, but because of rising prices, daily sales have dropped to 12," the owner of a poultry and egg shop in Tabriz told Iran International.
The decline represents an approximately 83% reduction in the number of chickens sold daily, reflecting the impact of inflation and weakened consumer purchasing power.
Families struggle with school and clothing costs
The rising cost of education has added to the financial burden on families, with students describing difficulties obtaining basic school supplies.
"I need stationery to study, but prices have risen so much that I can't even afford a notebook," one student wrote to Iran International.
Education recorded the highest monthly price increase among major household expenditure categories in October, rising 23.5%, according to the Statistical Center of Iran.
A mother in Mashhad said she visited a discount clothing store to buy warm clothes for her daughter but found that a hoodie and trousers cost 35 million rials ($13).
Unpaid wages compound housing pressures
Alongside inflation, delayed salary payments have deepened financial difficulties for workers already struggling with rent and family expenses.
An employee of Atlas Air said outstanding wages had not been paid, leaving the family struggling to meet its financial obligations.
"We are tenants, and we also cover the expenses of our family and our parents," the employee wrote to Iran International.
A woman who heads her household and works in the oil industry's healthcare sector said her salary had not been paid by October 29. Officials attributed the delay to a shortage of funds, she added.
Economic hardship has intensified alongside currency depreciation, inflation and declining purchasing power, while the Islamic Republic continues to pursue a confrontational foreign policy, particularly toward the United States and Israel.
Some inside Iran may be focused on Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival after Israel's inconclusive election, but the most consequential decision about another war with Iran may be made in Washington rather than Israel, analysts say.
Netanyahu's promise to "finish the job" in Iran has offered a ray of hope to some Iranians seeking the end of the Islamic Republic.
But Middle East analysts speaking to Iran International's Eye for Iran podcast challenged the idea that Netanyahu's return is essential to further military action against Tehran, arguing that Israel's political divisions do not necessarily extend to its assessment of the Iranian threat.
Instead, they pointed to President Donald Trump's remaining time in office as a potentially decisive factor in whether Israel and the United States launch another round of strikes against Iran.
Dan Feferman, a Middle East researcher and co-founder of Middle East 24, cautioned against interpreting Israel's political divisions through the traditional American left-right framework.
‘No soft approach on Iran’
He argued that an Israeli government led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, particularly one involving former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, would not necessarily approach the Iranian threat significantly differently from Netanyahu.
The divisions between Israel's political camps extend well beyond Iran, encompassing disputes over Netanyahu's handling of the October 7, 2023, security failures, the subsequent wars and military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Israelis.
Alex Winston, news editor of The Jerusalem Post, offered a similar assessment, arguing that Netanyahu's principal rivals would not necessarily pursue a softer approach toward the Islamic Republic.
But Winston drew an important distinction between confronting the Islamic Republic militarily and assuming responsibility for overthrowing it.
He argued that most Israelis would prefer to support Iranians seeking political change rather than have Israel itself be seen as the country that brought down the Islamic Republic.
That distinction raises a fundamental question about Netanyahu's repeated promise to "finish the job" in Iran: does it mean further weakening the Islamic Republic's military capabilities, or actively pursuing its removal from power?
Why Trump may matter more
Feferman pointed to the remaining two years of Trump's presidency as a potentially decisive window for further military action.
A future American president, particularly a Democrat, would be far less likely to support or participate in additional strikes against Iran, Feferman argued.
Netanyahu appeared to reinforce that argument in his first address following the October 27 election, in which his Likud party emerged as the largest but neither his bloc nor the opposition secured a clear parliamentary majority.
"Iran is weaker than ever, Israel is stronger than ever," he declared. "Israel stands before a historic, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat from Iran once and for all."
The remarks placed Iran at the centre of Netanyahu's plans for another term, even as his path to forming a government remained uncertain.
Israel has its own security interests and military capabilities, but US political backing remains central to its leaders' calculations.
‘We want Bibi’
The Israeli election has nevertheless attracted considerable interest among Iranians hoping for the Islamic Republic's downfall.
Benjamin Basire, an Iranian-born Jewish political analyst living in the United States, said some had followed the vote as though it were their own, contacting him with messages expressing hope that Netanyahu would remain in power.
"We want Bibi. Bibi is our savior," he recalled them saying, adding that some feared Netanyahu's departure would extinguish their hopes of political change.
Netanyahu has already overseen two rounds of Israeli attacks on Iran, in 2025 and 2026, as well as operations that killed senior Iranian military commanders and severely weakened Hezbollah, Tehran's most powerful regional ally.
But with the prospect of another confrontation looming, the question is whether Israel will act again, and with what degree of American support.
Winston suggested that the prospect of renewed fighting was already shaping expectations in Israel, pointing to the approaching US midterm elections as a potential turning point.
"We're already preparing for war," he warned.
"We're ready. That's for sure."
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Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Washington had changed its approach toward Tehran, but Iran would not enter negotiations or reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States met seven conditions intended to demonstrate a change in behavior.
In an interview with state television Saturday, Rezaei said diplomatic exchanges had been underway for more than a month and Washington had made three proposals, with Tehran now waiting for a US response to its latest position.
“We are now waiting for the Americans' response,” Rezaei said, adding that the Strait of Hormuz “cannot reopen unless Iran's seven conditions are met.”
The comments came as Iranian negotiators met Qatari mediators in Doha after more than 12 hours of talks between Iranian and Qatari officials in Tehran the previous day. The Qatari team has maintained regular contact with Washington during the discussions, Reuters reported, citing an official briefed on the negotiations.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that President Donald Trump had not decided whether to resume military action and that Washington remained open to a diplomatic solution.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there were no plans for direct talks with US officials and that consultations over Iran's conditions were continuing through mediators.
US and Iran remain divided over terms
Rezaei said Washington's first response was insufficient and its second proposal was more favorable, but said the United States intended to negotiate and then attack Iran again. A third proposal still contains ambiguities and remains under discussion, he said.
Washington wants Iran to make nuclear concessions as part of restarting talks, while Tehran is seeking measures including the lifting of the US naval blockade, the release of frozen Iranian funds and permission to sell oil before negotiations resume, Axios reported.
Reuters reported that Qatar had proposed a seven-day confidence-building plan that Iran considered inadequate. Iran's own proposal includes lifting the blockade, unfreezing assets and approving an Iranian-backed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.
Araghchi similarly tied progress toward negotiations to the Strait of Hormuz, saying Saturday that reopening it on Iran's terms could pave the way for talks with Washington.
Rezaei said Iran's seven conditions were intended to address ambiguities in an earlier Islamabad understanding, including the management of the Strait of Hormuz and the collection of fees.
Vance letter signals new US approach, Rezaei says
Washington's direct outreach to Rezaei has emerged as another channel in the effort to restart negotiations. US Vice President JD Vance sent him a letter at Trump's direction, the Wall Street Journal reported this week, citing US officials and people familiar with the matter.
Vance also offered to meet Rezaei personally to discuss a negotiated settlement, the Washington Post reported Thursday, citing a US official familiar with the negotiations. Istanbul or Doha would be the most likely venues if a meeting takes place, according to the report.
The Post reported that Vance's letter described Washington's central interest as ensuring Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon and called for Tehran to provide representatives empowered to discuss nuclear issues.
The Trump administration views Rezaei, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, as the key point of contact in Tehran and as someone capable of building consensus behind an agreement to halt Iran's nuclear program, the Post reported.
Rezaei said Saturday that he had read the letter but had not responded, though he described its tone as markedly different from an earlier letter from Trump.
“The tone of the letter has completely changed,” he said.
Trump later said the outreach concerned efforts to help Iran obtain medical supplies.
Nuclear issue remains central to diplomacy
With Iran's nuclear program central to any potential negotiations, Rezaei said Tehran had made no decision to change its nuclear doctrine despite public calls for a shift following attacks on the country's nuclear facilities.
“There has been no new decision regarding a change in the nuclear doctrine,” he said.
Rezaei said Iran was a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and would insist on what he described as its rights under the treaty in any future nuclear talks.
“If there are to be nuclear negotiations, we will demand our rights,” he said.
Rezaei also attacked International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi, calling him a “mercenary and servant of the Zionist regime.”
He said Iran's nuclear facilities had undergone extensive inspections and asserted that there had been no diversion in its nuclear program.
He also warned of a severe Iranian response to renewed US military action.
Iran pushes regional security role
Beyond the negotiations with Washington, Rezaei portrayed Iran as seeking a broader role in shaping regional security, pointing to recent four-way talks in Tehran with senior Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials.
Rezaei said the visiting officials voiced strong concerns about Israel, including a warning from Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman that Israel could eventually target Saudi Arabia.
“Prince Khalid said that after you, Israel will go after Turkey, and then it will come after us, Saudi Arabia,” Rezaei said.
Rezaei said the three countries had requested the visit and that all four sides agreed to continue the meetings. “They spoke so firmly against Israel,” he said.
He said Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin also raised concerns about Israel, while the Pakistani representative expressed concern about what Rezaei described as growing ties between Hindus and Jews directed against Muslims and Pakistan.
Rezaei said the talks covered the Mecca pact, Yemen and Syria, as well as Israel's presence in southern Lebanon and southern Syria and the situations in Gaza and the West Bank.
“We believe that foreign powers should leave the region and the countries of the region themselves should maintain their security,” Rezaei said.
