Iran International
US President Donald Trump this week repeated the boldest promise of the Iran war, that when Washington is "finished," Iranians should take over their government. In February the sentence stunned. On Wednesday it barely registered, and the silence is the story.
"To the great, proud people of Iran, the hour of your freedom is at hand," Trump says in a video posted on X, drawing on remarks he first delivered on February 28, the day the US campaign began. "When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take."
Six months ago, that was an extraordinary signal from an American president at the opening of a war with the Islamic Republic. This time there was no accompanying policy, no explanation of what "when we are finished" means, and no sign that Washington is preparing to help Iranians seize anything.
"I don't think the Iranian regime is going to care," Eric Mandel, founder of the Middle East Political Information Network, told Iran International's Eye for Iran podcast, whose conversation with him forms the basis of this analysis. "I think they've heard these messages before."
A war shaped by a calendar
Trump said this week that Iran was "limping along" and predicted the conflict would end "immediately after" November's midterm elections. He also acknowledged, in the same week, that electoral considerations may be influencing decisions about whether to escalate military action against Iran.
That is an American president saying, in public, that the pace of a war is being set partly by a domestic election.
His own senior advisers appear to be planning for something very different. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others have privately discussed the possibility that Tehran could withstand US pressure and that the conflict could run through the end of Trump's presidency in January 2029, according to the Wall Street Journal.
So the same week produced three incompatible timelines: freedom "at hand," an end "immediately after" the midterms, and a war that may outlast the administration. If Trump is again telling Iranians their government will soon be theirs to take, what has changed since he first said it? Mandel's answer was blunt: "I haven't heard a new policy."
The gap between the promise and the means
For Mandel, the problem is not the stated objective but the distance between the promise and any way of achieving it.
"They can't ask the Iranian people to go out again into the streets and be slaughtered," he said. The last time people came out in their millions, in January, security forces killed tens of thousands in two days.
If Washington genuinely wants the Islamic Republic to fall, Mandel argued, it would have to go far beyond encouragement: bring together Iran's fragmented opposition, finance strike funds so workers can stay home rather than face security forces in the street, tighten secondary sanctions on the countries helping Tehran evade pressure, and give material support to parts of the opposition.
"The Iranian people can't take over if they're unarmed and they are not having coordination," he said. "If we're saying to the Iranian people to take over at that point, that just doesn't make any sense to me."
The operation that lost its name
Trump's original February message came as the White House described Operation Epic Fury as an effort to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities, degrade its proxy network and cripple its navy, and tied the campaign to decades of confrontation between the two countries.
Even the name has since receded. The Pentagon said Epic Fury officially ended on May 5, and military personnel were later told to stop using it for the continuing operations against Iran. The war did not end with the name.
Nearly seven months on, oil is back above $100 a barrel, the political cost of the conflict is increasingly visible ahead of the midterms, and Trump's advisers are contemplating a far longer confrontation than the president publicly predicts. That is what makes the decision to resurrect the February message striking, and it raises the question Mandel kept returning to: who was it for?
Not Tehran, he thought, which he described as in "survival mode" and betting it can outlast the administration. Not a weary American public either. "If it is for the American people, to my mind, it's the wrong way to present this," he said.
Trump would need to explain why bringing down the Islamic Republic serves US security and why Americans should prepare for a long campaign, and he has not.
Without that, ever more dramatic language loses its force. "To the regime, it's like the boy who cried wolf," Mandel said. "He keeps saying this every month."
The video appeared deliberately produced, he noted, which makes it hard to dismiss as an impulsive post. But he could not say what new message it carried. "I don't get the message yet of what it is."
That may be why an extraordinary sentence received such an ordinary response. A US president once again told more than 90 million Iranians that their government may soon be theirs to take. What remains unclear is whether Washington was announcing an objective, offering encouragement, applying pressure, or repeating a promise the world has heard before.
The clashes began around a residential property in the Bakhshan area before dawn and were still continuing nearly eight hours later, extending to the vicinity of the Madani Grand Mosque and parts of Jahadabad, according to the group’s updates.
Local sources cited by Haalvsh said gunmen attacked at least three vehicles carrying military and security personnel, as well as two locations where forces had gathered. The reported casualty figures have not been independently confirmed.
Sources described sustained gunfire, repeated explosions and the use of heavy weapons, with fighting resuming after brief pauses. Haalvsh said it had not independently established the precise locations of all the exchanges.
Several ambulances were reportedly stationed nearby. Local sources said wounded personnel and bodies had been removed by other security forces, with some transported by ambulance to medical facilities. The identities and exact number of those killed or wounded remained unknown.
Roads blocked around residential area
Security forces blocked streets and access routes around the Madani Grand Mosque, roughly 200 meters from the house targeted in the initial operation, local sources said. A substantial deployment remained in the area, restricting movement around the fighting.
Gunmen inside the house exchanged fire with security personnel, some of whom were wearing traditional Baluch clothing, according to the sources. The property was described as belonging to a local resident, but the reports did not establish his connection, if any, to the gunmen.
Haalvsh reported civilians close to some of the clashes. Their situation remained unclear as fighting continued and roads were blocked, with no confirmed information on civilian casualties.
The gunmen’s identities and affiliations, the reason for the initial operation and any casualties among the armed group were also unknown. Military and security authorities had not issued an official account by the time of its latest update.
Saravan is in Sistan and Baluchestan, a southeastern province bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan and home to Iran’s mainly Sunni Muslim Baluch minority. The province has a long history of armed insurgency, although the reports provided no established link between Saturday’s gunmen and any known group.
An analysis published by Tejarat News on Wednesday estimated that a package of common women’s screenings and consultations could cost as much as 518 million rials in 2026, up from 138 million rials two years earlier.
For workers earning the average monthly pay of 250 million rials, the upper-end estimate represents more than two months of income.
“People can’t afford bread to eat. Staying healthy has become a luxury, like studying and going to university,” one social media user wrote in response to the figures.
Mammograms triple in price
The maximum listed price of a mammogram rose from 10 million rials in the Iranian year beginning March 2024 to 30 million rials in the year beginning March 2026, according to Tejarat News.
That represents a threefold increase in two years for an imaging procedure commonly used to screen for and detect breast cancer.
Ultrasound examinations have also become considerably more expensive. The maximum cost of a transvaginal ultrasound increased by about 80 percent in two years, while an ultrasound of the uterus and ovaries rose from 18 million to 44 million rials, an increase of more than 140 percent.
Pap smears showed an even steeper increase at the upper end of the reported range, with the maximum listed price rising from 9 million rials in 2024 to more than 130 million rials in 2026.
Tejarat News cautioned that the highest figure should not be treated as a typical nationwide price, with testing methods, accompanying services and providers producing substantial differences in the final cost.
Official tariffs for visits to gynecologists have also risen. A specialist consultation increased from just under 2 million to 5 million rials between 2024 and 2026.
The figures are based on tariffs approved by Iran’s Health Ministry, though Tejarat News said many specialists charge more than the official rates.
Healthcare prices outpace wages
The increases come as Iranian households contend with rapidly rising living costs and a sharp decline in the value of the rial.
The currency has lost around three-quarters of its value against the dollar since March 2024, while annual pay increases for many salaried workers have been around 20 percent. As a result, wages have failed to keep pace with the rising cost of many goods and services.
The burden has particular implications for women, according to journalist Roghayeh Rezaei, who pointed to a contradiction between rising healthcare costs and government policies encouraging women to have more children while restricting access to contraception.
“The issue is no longer simply a woman’s body and her own personal choices. It is a political body that the Islamic Republic uses ideologically,” Rezaei told Iran International.
She said women were expected to serve the state’s population policies while being left to bear much of the financial burden of examinations and treatment.
The problem is particularly acute for women who must choose between preventive healthcare and other household necessities, she said.
“There are women in Iran who see that if they get a Pap smear or a mammogram, they have to take money away from feeding their children,” Rezaei said. “They postpone these tests.”
‘Just don’t live at all’
Rezaei said doctors had described patients, particularly from poorer and more marginalized groups, delaying medical care until their conditions became more serious because they could not afford treatment.
The Tejarat News estimate also excludes medicines, additional laboratory tests, transportation, sanitary products and other medical expenses.
The healthcare figures also prompted broader expressions of frustration over living costs on social media.
One user listed expenses people are increasingly expected to cut, including fuel, restaurants, meat, chicken, shoes and other purchases.
“Just don’t live at all, only so the clerics can rule for two more days,” the user wrote.
