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Australian lawmakers back Prince Pahlavi role in Iran transition

Alireza Mohebbi
Alireza Mohebbi
Sep 8, 2026, 11:48 GMT+1Updated: 15:09 GMT+1
A general view of the Australian Senate chamber at Parliament House in Canberra.
A general view of the Australian Senate chamber at Parliament House in Canberra.

Four senior Australian opposition politicians have backed a role for Reza Pahlavi in a political transition in Iran and urged closer engagement with the exiled prince, telling Iran International they have invited him to visit Australia.

The Coalition politicians said they supported peaceful political change in Iran and planned to meet Pahlavi virtually. No date has been announced for the meeting or a possible visit.

“We want to see peaceful political change in Iran. We don't support the current regime,” Senator Dave Sharma, Shadow Assistant Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs, told Iran International.

“We think it's done immense harm not only to its own people, but to the neighbourhood, the region, and even to the world here in Australia.”

Iran International also spoke to Senator Andrew Bragg, Shadow Minister for Environment; Senator Jessica Collins, Chair of the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee; and Julian Leeser, Shadow Minister for Education.

Coalition seeks engagement with Pahlavi

Engagement with Pahlavi is one of the Coalition's most important foreign policy objectives because of the role it believes he could play during a transition, Bragg said.

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Senator Andrew Bragg, Australian Shadow Minister for Environment

“For the coalition, having a meeting with the Crown Prince is one of the most important foreign policy objectives that we have, because we believe that meeting with this key transitional figure is the best way to move the conversation on to a new government for Iran,” Bragg told Iran International.

Bragg described the Islamic Republic as “probably the worst government and the worst regime on the planet” and accused it of crimes against Iranians and sponsoring terrorism abroad, including in Australia.

The senator argued that political change would be difficult without serious international engagement with an alternative.

“This government will never be moved on unless we engage seriously with an alternative, and the alternative that we have as a transitional figure is the Crown Prince,” Bragg said.

Collins also described Pahlavi as “an important symbol of anti-regime and pro-democracy” and said the Coalition would continue engaging with him and hearing about the challenges facing Iranians.

The four lawmakers plan to hold a virtual meeting with Pahlavi ahead of a possible visit to Australia. The Coalition has extended an invitation for the visit, but no date has been announced for either the talks or the trip.

Peaceful political change

Pahlavi is an influential voice in Iranian politics, with many Iranians around the world looking to him for leadership, Sharma said.

The Coalition’s outreach aims to build a clearer picture of events inside Iran and support political forces seeking change, said Sharma, a former Australian ambassador to Israel.

“I think having the Crown Prince visit Australia will help show the Australian people that there are prospects for a brighter political future in Iran,” Sharma said.

“There are many Iranian people who want this to happen, and that he will play an important part in any transition.”

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Senator Dave Sharma, Australian Shadow Assistant Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs

A visit could also renew Australian public attention on Iran following the authorities' deadly suppression of nationwide protests in January, Sharma said.

Leeser said the invitation was intended to give Australian politicians an opportunity to hear Pahlavi's assessment of conditions inside Iran and his vision for the country's future.

“The coalition has decided to invite Reza Pahlavi to Australia at this time because Reza Pahlavi has been advocating for freedom and democracy for the people of Iran, and we want to hear his perspective of what's happening on the ground and his hopes for the future of Iran,” Leeser told Iran International.

Leeser drew parallels between the invitation and Australia’s past engagement with figures in overseas political struggles, including Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Winnie Mandela during South Africa’s anti-apartheid struggle, and Xanana Gusmão and José Ramos-Horta during East Timor’s campaign for independence.

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Julian Leeser, Australian MP and Shadow Minister for Education

“Reza Pahlavi would come to Australia in that tradition to provide us with his perspective and to provide us with important information that will help us develop our foreign policy in this area,” Leeser said.

Support for Iranians

All four politicians used the interviews to express support for Iranians seeking political change.

Collins said the Coalition shared what she described as the fundamental values sought by protesters, including “freedom, liberty and security.”

“We stand with you all the way, and I want you to know, I want all the Iranian people in Australia to know, and around the world, that we stand with you,” Collins said.

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Chair of the Australian Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee

Sharma echoed that view, saying the Coalition’s engagement with Pahlavi reflected its support for Iranians seeking democratic change.

“The message this will send to the people of Iran is that you are not alone, that your fight for freedom and democracy is a fight that we share and that we are equally committed to, and that your success is our success,” Sharma said.

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Iranian protester undergoes months of secret treatment to save wounded leg

Sep 8, 2026, 09:04 GMT+1
•
Farnoosh Faraji
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Trash bins block a street during protests in Tehran’s Naziabad neighborhood in January 2026.

A 34-year-old protester shot in the Iranian city of Qazvin on January 8 has undergone five major operations and months of largely secret medical care as doctors work to save and reconstruct his badly damaged leg.

“The bullet severely destroyed the bone in his right lower leg, and the lower part of his leg was almost attached to his body only by tissue and skin,” the protester’s brother told Iran International.

The protester was shot on Khayyam Street in Qazvin on the evening of January 8, according to information obtained by Iran International. The shot was fired from a Kalashnikov rifle at a distance of about 100 meters.

The shooting took place during nationwide protests that began in December 2025 amid worsening economic conditions and a sharp fall in Iran’s currency, then grew into broader opposition to the Islamic Republic.

Security forces killed tens of thousands of Iranians during the January 8-9 crackdown, making it the deadliest two-day protest massacre in history, according to documents reviewed by Iran International’s Editorial Board.

After initial attempts to stop the bleeding failed, the family sought help from an acquaintance to move him secretly to a hospital in Qazvin, his brother said.

The family has had to keep much of his treatment secret for fear he could be identified and detained, his brother said.

Iran International has documented similar cases since the January protests, in which wounded demonstrators avoided medical facilities or sought treatment in secret for fear of identification and arrest.

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A photo provided to Iran International shows the wounded protester’s surgically treated leg alongside an X-ray showing an external fixation device used during months of treatment after he was shot in Qazvin on January 8.

Sources in Mamasani, in Fars province, previously confirmed that some wounded protesters there avoided medical centers because they feared their identities could be exposed and they could face prosecution.

Secret hospital exit after seven-hour surgery

The hospital in Qazvin was among those willing to admit wounded protesters despite the risks, his brother said.

Staff placed the 34-year-old in a darkened room with several other wounded people and cut power to parts of the hospital to stop surveillance cameras from recording patients’ movements, his brother said.

  • Wounded January protester killed before his family, sources say

    Wounded January protester killed before his family, sources say

He lost consciousness after severe blood loss and underwent surgery at about 3 p.m. on January 9. The operation lasted roughly seven hours.

After surgery, hospital staff warned the family that he needed to leave quickly through a rear exit, fearing security forces could arrive and detain him, according to the family.

About an hour later, relatives and hospital staff moved him out of the building, before he had fully regained consciousness, and took him to a home to recover.

Iran International has previously documented the scale and severity of injuries inflicted during the January crackdown.

A specialist in a northern Iranian city said he and his son operated on dozens of wounded people on January 9 and 10. His son removed more than 270 pellets from the eyes of about 130 protesters, the doctor said.

Severe infection complicates recovery

Deep wounds and extensive damage to the protester’s lower leg complicated his recovery after the first operation, with large amounts of fluid draining from the wound each day, his brother said.

The family changed his dressings at home with help from a doctor they knew. As the infection worsened, they contacted the surgeon who had performed the first operation. He continued treating the protester at his private practice.

The family was told that the bullet had shattered a large section of his shinbone, leaving a gap that prevented the remaining ends from joining on their own.

The surgeon referred him to a colleague in Tehran for specialist treatment.

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    Security forces seized Iran hospital, sent wounded protesters to morgue

For months, the family has taken him from Qazvin to Tehran roughly every two weeks. He has undergone more than five major operations on his leg, his brother said.

Iran International has received other accounts of doctors secretly helping protesters wounded in January. In one case, a Tehran doctor treated dozens of wounded protesters free of charge and arranged for their radiology fees to be waived, sources said.

Surgeons remove 12 centimeters of bone

Surgeons eventually had to remove about 12 centimeters of damaged bone from his lower leg and make a surgical cut in the bone near his ankle.

They then fitted an Ilizarov apparatus, an external frame of metal rings, rods and wires used to gradually move sections of bone. The technique can help repair extensive bone damage and replace missing bone.

Doctors hope to use the device to gradually close the gap between the healthy sections before performing a bone graft, according to the family.

He faces a prolonged recovery, with no immediate prospect of regaining normal mobility or returning to work.

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An X-ray provided shows extensive damage to the lower leg of a 34-year-old protester who was shot in Qazvin on January 8.

Treatment costs strain family

Months of surgery, medication, wound care and travel between Qazvin and Tehran have put the family under growing financial pressure, his brother said.

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The protester, who lives with his wife in rented accommodation, has been unable to work since the shooting.

His brother, who also rents his home, has taken on much of the responsibility for transporting him and coordinating his care.

The family is struggling to meet the continuing costs of treatment and travel, his brother said.

Iran oil workers protest pay conditions at offshore platforms, Assaluyeh

Sep 7, 2026, 17:35 GMT+1
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Oil workers protesting their pay conditions on an offshore platform on Sept. 7, 2026.

Employees of Iran’s oil industry held protests Monday at offshore platforms operated by Pars Oil and Gas Company and in the southern energy hub of Assaluyeh, demanding changes to pay, taxes and benefits as US economic pressure weighs on Iran’s oil exports and wider economy.

Afkar-e Naft, a Telegram channel which reports on issues affecting permanent oil industry employees, said the demonstrations were part of protests held every Monday.

Images published by the channel showed workers at several offshore installations holding placards calling for the removal of salary caps, full payment of wages and benefits, fairer compensation and changes to the tax system for offshore employees.

“Full payment of wages and benefits,” read one placard, while another said, “Fair pay is our right, not an extra privilege.”

Other signs called for an overhaul of the wage system for operational oil workers and the removal of what protesters described as “unfair restrictions” on salary payments.

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Several workers also highlighted the conditions under which oil production has continued during the war. One placard read, “Uninterrupted production in a war zone,” while another referred to “uninterrupted production in border areas.”

The protesters are also seeking payment of outstanding compensation under Article 10 of the law governing the duties and powers of Iran’s Oil Ministry.

The so-called Article 10 back pay refers to accumulated payments employees say they are owed following implementation of provisions governing compensation and employment conditions for Oil Ministry personnel.

The protests come as Iran’s economy faces mounting pressure from the regional war and a US maritime blockade that was reimposed in mid-July. Satellite imagery reviewed by Iran International shows a sharp decline in visible vessel activity at Shahid Rajaee and Imam Khomeini, two of the country’s most important commercial ports, since the blockade resumed.

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    Satellite images show Iran’s key ports falling quiet under US blockade

The impact has been particularly severe on Iran’s oil trade, a crucial source of government revenue and foreign currency. Kpler tanker-tracking data reviewed by Iran International showed Iranian crude loadings averaging about 287,000 barrels per day in August through Aug. 21, compared with roughly 2 million barrels per day before the war — a fall of about 85%.

Washington has simultaneously intensified its financial campaign against Tehran. On Aug. 24, the US Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast, dubbed an “Economic D-Day,” saying it aimed to sever Iran’s remaining financial and commercial connections and increase the risks for foreign banks and companies doing business with Tehran. The campaign has since targeted financial channels in countries including the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye.

The pressure has coincided with a steep deterioration in household purchasing power. Iran’s rial has fallen to a record low of about 2.2 million to the US dollar this month, compared with roughly 958,000 a year earlier.

Official figures for July showed average annual inflation at around 62%, year-on-year inflation at 82% and food inflation at 134%, adding to the pressure on wages and living standards.

Starlink next door could loosen Iran’s grip on internet

Sep 6, 2026, 17:23 GMT+1
•
Nima Akbarpour
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A starlink dish in Tehran, Iran.

Starlink terminals becoming available in newly legal markets on Iran’s doorstep could make the Islamic Republic’s internet shutdowns harder to enforce, potentially lowering the cost of equipment that has become an increasingly important route around government blackouts.

Within six weeks, two of Iran’s neighbors have opened their markets to the satellite internet service. Iraq authorized Starlink on July 17. The United Arab Emirates granted it a 10-year general license on Aug. 28, and public sales began on Sept. 3.

SpaceX reportedly waived subscription fees for terminals operating inside Iran during the January 2026 internet shutdown, leaving access to the illegal hardware itself as one of the main obstacles.

Until now, Starlink terminals reaching Iran have largely had to pass through black-market supply chains involving multiple intermediaries. Legal sales in two nearby countries could shorten those chains, increase the supply of terminals and ultimately drive down prices inside Iran.

A standard Starlink kit now sells for around $400 in the UAE. At the end of August, the same model was selling for around $2,100 on Iran’s black market, while the smaller Starlink Mini was selling for around $1,850, according to data collected by Starlink4Iran.

During the January shutdown, the price of a standard kit surged to around $3,000, while the Mini reached around $2,300.

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The premium reflects more than profit. Equipment entering Iran passes through intermediaries facing the risks of confiscation and punishment, along with the costs of moving devices covertly across the border.

Legal markets next door will not eliminate those risks. But they could reduce the number of intermediaries involved and make terminals cheaper and more plentiful.

A new route from Iraq

The potential impact is particularly significant in Iraq, which shares a long land border with Iran and has extensive trade and passenger traffic with its neighbor.

Ahmad Ahmadian, an internet freedom activist and director of the nonprofit Holistic Resilience, which works to expand Iranian access to Starlink, said Erbil has already been an important source of communications equipment reaching Iran through informal channels.

Legalization could broaden that network to include traders and people who regularly travel between the two countries, he said.

During periods such as Arbaeen, the annual Shiite pilgrimage when millions of travelers move between Iran and Iraq, thoroughly inspecting everything they carry becomes more difficult, Ahmadian said.

Ahmadian expects some travelers to bring Starlink equipment into Iran for their own use or resale. The devices, he said, could even become a kind of “souvenir” brought back from Iraq.

The smaller Starlink Mini could prove particularly attractive. Roughly the size of a laptop, it is easier to transport than a standard dish, although its official availability in Iraq has yet to be confirmed.

There are still significant obstacles to an Iraqi Starlink market.

The license was issued by Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission, but the Communications Ministry says it has not signed a separate agreement with SpaceX and has raised objections over pricing and routing traffic through Qatar.

The Kurdistan Region has separate regulations, and as of early September no final agreement with SpaceX had been announced.

According to Iraqi officials, around 40,000 unauthorized terminals were already operating in the country before the license was issued, reportedly serving around 200,000 people, including government and security users.

Regulatory disputes may therefore slow the development of the legal market, but they are unlikely to eliminate an existing network of sellers, installers and users.

The UAE offers another potential source.

Starlink equipment was already available in Dubai’s free-trade zones before the general license was issued, and some terminals in Iran have previously been sourced there through intermediaries. Legal public sales could make the equipment easier to obtain.

One dish, many users

More terminals inside Iran would not necessarily benefit only those wealthy enough to buy one.

Some Starlink owners already share their connections with other users, including through VPN and other circumvention services.

Tools such as NasNet Connect can use Iran’s own National Information Network, or NIN, to connect users to a local gateway whose route to the international internet is provided by Starlink. That matters because Iranian authorities have repeatedly cut access to the global internet during periods of unrest and crisis while leaving the NIN and approved domestic services functioning.

A user’s connection to the local gateway can therefore still travel over Iranian telecommunications infrastructure, while the gateway’s route to the outside world exits through Starlink, beyond conventional international connections controlled by the state.

For relatively light uses such as messaging and web browsing, a single terminal can potentially support around 20 to 30 users, according to Ahmadian. Video calls, streaming and large downloads substantially reduce that number.

There is also a financial incentive.

Dish owners can sell VPN or other internet access to recover their costs or even generate income. If cheaper hardware reduces the initial investment, more terminals could potentially become gateways for groups of users rather than individual connections.

None of this makes such networks invisible. Iranian authorities can attempt to identify servers and dishes, disrupt communications and interfere with satellite signals.

But a growing number of privately operated connections would make the task of sealing Iran off from the international internet more complicated.

Free, for now

There is another important limitation: a Starlink terminal bought legally in Iraq or the UAE is not guaranteed to work once brought into Iran.

SpaceX retains control over which terminals are activated and whether they remain connected. It reportedly waived subscription fees for terminals operating in Iran during the January 2026 blackout but did not say how long the arrangement would last.

Ahmadian said active terminals in Iran have continued to operate without subscription charges in recent months. Some accounts previously disconnected for non-payment have also been restored, he said.

It remains unclear whether that policy will continue indefinitely or whether newly arrived terminals bought in Iraq or the UAE will automatically receive free service.

Using Starlink also carries significant personal risk inside Iran. The Islamic Republic considers the equipment illegal and has sought to disrupt satellite connections, locate terminals and punish users.

Nor can satellite internet come close to replacing Iran’s conventional internet infrastructure. Even if black-market prices fall substantially, the hardware will remain beyond the reach of many households.

But for journalists, activists, businesses and families who have lived through repeated internet shutdowns, Starlink increasingly serves as something different: a backup route to the outside world when Tehran cuts conventional connections.

The arrival of legal Starlink markets in Iraq and the UAE does not take Iran’s internet kill switch out of the government’s hands. But it could mean fewer doors close when the switch is thrown.

'If I'm not happy, they'll execute me': Iran's new grammar of dissent

Sep 4, 2026, 14:35 GMT+1
•
Arash Sohrabi
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An AI-enhanced and reframed screengrab from a video shows a man dancing while holding a bag of chips and a bottle of soda.

Iranians have found a way to complain about prices that no prosecutor can touch: they film themselves dancing beside the groceries, insist they are delighted, and explain that if they were not, they would be executed.

The format barely varies. A person holds up what they bought and names what it cost. Four eggs and a single sausage, 5 million rials, about $2.30. A soda and a packet of crisps, 3.5 million rials. Three small bags of shopping, 75 million rials, roughly $34, which is close to half a month at Iran's minimum wage of about $75. Then the line, in one version or another: I am very happy, because if I were not, they would execute me. And then they dance.

One man films his phone showing a bank balance of 2 million rials, under a dollar, and dances through the list of what it will not cover: the bounced cheques, the unpaid shop rent, the apartment rent, his wife's clothes.

A veiled woman holds up a few tomatoes, onions and potatoes and explains that she can no longer buy by the kilo, only a handful at a time, "but I am happy, because otherwise they call me a rioter or a traitor." She thanks the authorities and signs off warmly. Another woman does the same with six eggs and a tin of tuna.

Another man dances while captions scroll over him: the dollar at 200,000 tomans, no electricity, deep in debt, and a signed undertaking to the authorities not to engage in politics. The threat varies with the week's official vocabulary: some dancers say they would otherwise be branded a mercenary, a traitor, or a Mossad agent.

It reads, at first, as one more instance of a familiar thing, humor as a pressure valve under repression. That reading is not wrong, but it is not what is new here, and it misses what the videos are actually doing.

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    Iran’s economy is a powder keg. Tehran is preparing for the spark

Painting things white

The Islamic Republic has a specific charge for describing the country's problems: siah-namai, "painting things black." It is used against journalists, economists and ordinary complainers to mean the deliberate darkening of a reality that is, officials insist, fine. The dance videos answer it precisely. They paint things white, so luridly that the whiteness itself becomes the accusation.

A man delighted by four eggs is not praising the government. He is holding its own demand up to the light.

To see why this is a break rather than a joke, it helps to recall Vaclav Havel's greengrocer, the shopkeeper in communist Czechoslovakia who puts the slogan "Workers of the world, unite!" in his window. He does not believe it. What the sign really says, Havel wrote, is: I am obedient and therefore have the right to be left in peace. The system did not need people to believe. It needed each of them to see everyone else pretending, so that pretending felt like the only choice. Its one requirement was silence about what the pretending was for.

The Iranian dancer is Havel's greengrocer saying the quiet part aloud while still holding up the sign. The compliance is performed, the smile is wide, the gratitude is offered. And in the same breath the coercion behind it is named: I am doing this because the alternative is a noose.

Coerced performance works only while the coercion stays deniable. Havel's greengrocer kept the system standing by leaving the reason unsaid. The dancer says the reason into the camera, and the sign in the window stops working.

A state that can no longer read its own people

Follow that to its end and the videos are doing something sharper than mockery. They are exposing a problem the state has made for itself.

When a government criminalizes complaint, it also empties praise of meaning. If unhappiness can be prosecuted, a happy citizen and a frightened one become impossible to tell apart.

The dancers are demonstrating this to the state's face: you can no longer know whether we are content, because you have made discontent a crime, and so our contentment tells you nothing.

This is the deeper significance of a format built entirely from the state's own words. Every accusation the dancers voice, siah-namai, rioter, mercenary, Mossad agent, traitor, is lifted from official language. The videos are assembled from nothing but the vocabulary the government uses to police speech, and turned into an instrument of it.

Linguists distinguish the message from the metamessage: what a statement says, and what it conveys about the relationship between the people speaking. Every one of these videos carries the same metamessage. I cannot tell you the truth, you know I cannot, and I know that you know.

The gap between "I am delighted" and "I am forbidden to say otherwise" is the entire content. Iranians read it without effort. The state pretends to read only the surface.

From refusing the frame to hollowing the words

The videos are the latest move in a shift that has been accelerating, and each stage has done something different to the relationship between a sign and its meaning.

During the January protests, demonstrators in the western town of Abdanan scattered rice into the air, pouring away a staple that had grown scarce and dear. The gesture refused the frame the state wanted to impose on the unrest.

  • A grain too far: Iranian rice becomes too dear for many

    A grain too far: Iranian rice becomes too dear for many

By throwing away the very thing they could barely afford, protesters were saying the anger was never really about the price of rice. The economy had triggered something larger: a rejection of the whole arrangement.

Then came the funerals. After the January massacre, families burying the dead replaced the state's mourning language, the Quranic recitation, the lamentation, the word shahid, "martyr," with another vocabulary entirely: wedding music, folk dance, verses from the Shahnameh, and a new word for their dead, javid-nam, "whose name will endure."

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    Dancing for the dead: How protest massacre is rewriting Iran’s mourning rituals

  • Iranians burying slain protest youths mourn with dancing and defiance

    Iranians burying slain protest youths mourn with dancing and defiance

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    Iran’s 40-day memorials for protesters spill beyond cemeteries into streets

That was an act of authorship. The grief was real, and out of it people built a rival ritual language, deliberately cleansed of the religious symbolism the state relies on.

The price videos are the third move, and they are not the same as the funeral dances, even though both use the body and both use music. The funeral dance builds; it replaces the state's grammar with a sincere one of its own. The price video hollows; it takes the state's grammar and performs it as a corpse. One is about the dead and constructs a new language. The other is about the living and empties an existing one. A society that first refused the state's frame, and then authored its own, is now wearing the state's words as a mask.

It is worth remembering how far this has travelled. Dance is not merely frowned upon in Iran; it is effectively illegal, and the word itself is so freighted that the state, when staging its own approved versions, avoids it and reaches instead for the bloodless euphemism harakat-e mozoun, "rhythmic movements," a coinage that was itself widely mocked when it appeared.

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    Dancing Is The New Protest In Iran

  • Iranians Dance In Streets As Civil Disobedience To Clerical Rule

    Iranians Dance In Streets As Civil Disobedience To Clerical Rule

  • Iran’s Crackdown On ‘Happiness’ Draws More Criticism

    Iran’s Crackdown On ‘Happiness’ Draws More Criticism

During the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests, teenage girls were detained and pushed into filmed confessions for dancing in a Tehran neighborhood. The same act now circulates in its hundreds, filmed openly by people using their own names and faces, among them veiled women from households where dancing would once have been unthinkable on its own terms, never mind the law's. That is its own measure of how fast the ground is moving.

The trigger, as ever, is money. The rial has been setting records, passing 2,200,000 to the dollar, and on August 31 the judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei called protesters "mercenaries" and promised a firmer hand. But the videos are not really about eggs, any more than the rice was about rice.

They are about a population that has run out of permitted ways to say no, and has started saying yes in a way that unmistakably means it.

The phenomenon has acquired a name, taken from the line the dancers keep repeating: "If I'm not happy, they'll execute me." It is a joke a foreign viewer can laugh at and an Iranian cannot, quite. The Islamic Republic built a machine designed to hear only yes. It is now discovering that yes is what no has learned to sound like.

Trump’s call for an Iranian uprising runs into a trust problem

Sep 4, 2026, 02:17 GMT+1
•
Mojtaba Pourmohsen
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US president Donald Trump walks down the stairs of Air Force One

Donald Trump’s renewed call for Iranians to rise up against the Islamic Republic has revived a question among some of those he is urging into the streets: after months of shifting US policy, can they trust Washington to stand by them if they do?

The question came as the United States renewed strikes on Iranian military targets and Trump rejected Tehran’s call for a return to the Islamabad Memorandum, saying an agreement with the Islamic Republic was not “worth the paper it’s written on.”

But responses sent by a number of Iran International viewers raised a different question: if Iranians return to the streets, can they be certain that Washington will continue supporting them?

Some pointed to the experience of the past eight months, during which Trump has moved between encouraging Iranians to challenge the Islamic Republic, launching a war against it, reaching an agreement with Tehran and again escalating military pressure.

That history began with the nationwide anti-government protests in December and January.

Trump repeatedly encouraged Iranians to stay in the streets. On January 13, as the crackdown intensified, he told protesters to “take over your institutions” and declared that “help is on its way.”

The repression that followed was on an extraordinary scale. More than 36,500 people were killed by security forces during the January 8-9 crackdown, according to classified government documents and other evidence, including field reports and accounts from medical staff, witnesses and victims’ families, reviewed by Iran International.

Trump also warned Tehran against executing detained protesters, saying the United States would take “very strong action” if executions went ahead.

Days later, he said he had been informed that more than 800 planned executions had been canceled and suggested that his intervention had helped stop them. Iran’s prosecutor general later denied that such a mass execution plan existed.

Then, on February 28, the United States and Israel launched their war against the Islamic Republic.

Trump again addressed the Iranian public directly. He urged people to stay sheltered while the bombing continued but said that once military operations were over, Iranians should “take over your government.”

For opponents of the Islamic Republic who interpreted his remarks as a commitment to support political change, the months that followed produced a more complicated picture.

The war eventually gave way to negotiations and the Islamabad Memorandum. The agreement dealt primarily with security and geopolitical issues, including the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear activities and sanctions. The political rights of Iranians and the government’s repression of protesters were not central elements of the framework.

That did not make Washington an ally of Tehran. The United States has continued imposing severe economic and military pressure on the Islamic Republic, and the agreement itself later unraveled.

But it demonstrated an important limitation to Trump’s earlier rhetoric: Washington’s immediate priorities could shift from political change inside Iran to reaching an arrangement with the government Iranians had been encouraged to confront.

Executions also continued.

Trump has not been completely silent about them. In July, he reacted to the execution of one protester by writing “Savages!!!” and shared material about another case. But those interventions were far more limited than his earlier warnings that executions could trigger strong US action.

This is the context in which Trump is now once again asking Iranians to rise up.

He himself acknowledged on Wednesday why doing so is difficult. Asked about the absence of another uprising, Trump said protesters “get shot,” while arguing that the Islamic Republic was growing weaker and would eventually become less capable of suppressing them.

The scale of the January crackdown makes that explanation difficult to dispute. Taking to the streets against the Islamic Republic can carry an immediate risk of imprisonment, execution or death at the hands of security forces.

But the responses received by Iran International suggest another calculation is also at work for at least some Iranians: what happens if they act on Trump's encouragement and US priorities subsequently change?

There is precedent for Washington placing limits on how far it is prepared to go. During the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025, Trump prevented Ali Khamenei from being assassinated, he later confirmed in a post on Truth Social.

"I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH," Trump posted on June 27, 2025.

That episode does not establish that Trump prevented the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, as some of his critics have argued. But it reinforces the distinction between Trump's rhetoric about regime change and the limits Washington may impose when making military and diplomatic decisions.

Trump’s messages to Iranians over the past eight months have therefore contained two different signals.

He has repeatedly encouraged them to challenge the Islamic Republic and, at moments, suggested that American power would help create an opportunity for them to change their government. At other moments, Washington has prioritized a ceasefire, negotiations and specific US security interests.

For people being asked to risk their lives in another confrontation with the Islamic Republic, that distinction is not theoretical.

Trump is asking when Iranians will rise up and fight. The experience of the past several months helps explain why some of them are responding with a question of their own: if they do, how long can they count on his support?