‘War must end—but so must the regime’: civilians speak from under fire

Official figures released at the end of fiscal year 1404 (March 2026) show annual inflation at 50.6 percent, according to data compiled by government bodies including the parliament’s Research Center. Prices rose 5.6 percent in March alone.

But economists say the headline figure understates the severity of the crisis. The more revealing measure—point-to-point inflation—shows how sharply living costs have risen over the past year.

Government statistics indicate that prices in March 2026 were 71.8 percent higher than a year earlier, a surge that has sharply eroded household purchasing power. In major cities such as Tehran, the increase is believed to be even higher, particularly for food.

The shock has unfolded as weeks of US and Israeli strikes have disrupted economic life across the country. In Tehran, where many residents have temporarily left the city, large parts of the capital’s commercial activity have slowed sharply.

Many businesses remain closed and those who have stayed behind often limit their movements, wary of being caught in unpredictable air strikes.

Attacks on what the attackers describe as “regime infrastructure” have also begun to hit the industrial economy more directly. Recent strikes on major steel production facilities—among the country’s most important industrial employers—have disrupted supply chains and raised fears of wider job losses in manufacturing regions.

For working-class and rural families, the situation is especially acute. Following the removal of preferential exchange rates (arz-e tarjihi), monthly food inflation has climbed above 100 percent, turning basic nutrition into the central economic struggle for many households.

Economists say national averages obscure the depth of the crisis. In some food categories, the real cost of living has effectively doubled, with price increases reaching as high as 150 percent.

Labor activists told the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) that the government’s electronic commodity coupon system—introduced to cushion the impact of rising prices—covers only a small portion of what they describe as the “worker’s basket” of essential goods.

The government-linked Workers’ House has called for a return to direct distribution of staples such as rice, cooking oil and sugar, similar to the rationing system used during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

Workers in high-risk industries such as construction say the government has suspended its contribution to social-security insurance quotas, leaving many without coverage as workplace accidents increase amid wartime damage to infrastructure.

In mining regions such as Tabas in northeastern Iran, thousands of workers are reportedly unable to retire because employers—under financial strain during the war—cannot pay the required 4 percent premium for jobs classified as “hard and hazardous.”

Economists and labor advocates say the government must urgently introduce targeted relief.

Proposals include special allowances for workers covered by labor law to offset soaring food prices, as well as legal intervention by the judiciary and the Social Security Organization to allow workers in hazardous occupations to retire even if employers cannot currently meet their contribution requirements.

Without such measures, analysts warn, the country risks a deeper erosion of living standards at a moment when the economic effects of war are already reshaping everyday life.

As photos of wounded civilians circulated widely on social media, some users accused photographers and authorities of staging scenes for propaganda, claiming that individuals depicted in widely shared images were actors and that injuries, dust and distress visible in the photos had been artificially created using makeup and staged scenes.

The accusations spread quickly across Persian-language social media, with skeptics pointing to perceived similarities between people appearing in images linked to separate incidents as supposed evidence.

Even the Persian-language account of Israel’s foreign ministry weighed in on the controversy by reposting one of the disputed images and writing: “If they call the Gaza filmmaking industry ‘Pallywood’, what do they call this?”

But the claims were soon challenged by fact-checkers and other users, and in some cases the accusations were later withdrawn.

Iran’s independent fact-checking platform Factnameh said a review of several of the controversial images found no evidence supporting claims that they had been staged or taken at different times and locations as alleged.

“Given the presence of debris and victims, the idea that actors were staged in such a scene is highly unlikely,” the platform said, noting that the individuals in the images show clear differences in facial features and body structure despite some similarities.

Mehdi Ghasemi, one of the photographers whose work came under scrutiny, rejected the allegations and defended his work.

“I’m 47 years old, and it’s been 33 years since I received my first documentary photography award, and I haven’t taken a single reconstructed or manipulated frame,” he wrote on X.

One user who had asserted that a woman in a widely circulated photograph was an actress later deleted the post and issued an apology after acquaintances identified the woman and her husband as real individuals whose home had been destroyed in the strikes.

The controversy has unfolded amid tight wartime restrictions on reporting and photography in Iran.

Critics argue that permits to document sensitive scenes are tightly controlled and often granted only to photographers seen as aligned with the authorities, making independent documentation of chaotic strike sites difficult.

Combined with broader limits on information flow during the conflict, those restrictions have left social media as one of the primary arenas for competing narratives about events on the ground.

The dispute reflects how deeply distrust of official narratives has taken root in Iranian society after decades of censorship and propaganda. In such an environment, even genuine documentation can quickly become the subject of suspicion.

“The issue is exactly like the story of the boy who cried wolf,” one user wrote online.

“When a government lacks legitimacy to this extent and has always chosen to lie at every step, eventually no one believes the truth either. Now factor in cutting off communication channels on top of that, and you end up with the situation we are in.”

For others, however, the rush to dismiss images of civilian suffering as staged propaganda risks deepening divisions at a moment when the war itself is already reshaping daily life across the country.

At the diplomatic level, reports suggest indirect contacts are continuing, even as the gap between public rhetoric and behind-the-scenes diplomacy appears wider than ever.

In Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as a key voice. Reportedly playing a leading role in managing indirect contacts with Washington, he has maintained a consistently hard line.

In a four-page message issued on March 29 to mark the 30th day of the war, he dismissed recent US diplomatic messaging, including reports of a 15-point proposal, as unrealistic. He said Washington was trying “to achieve through talks what it could not win on the battlefield.”

Ghalibaf accused the United States of duplicity, saying Washington was publicly speaking of negotiations while privately preparing for escalation. He warned that Iranian forces were ready to inflict heavy losses on any US troops attempting a ground operation, as well as on their regional allies.

He also argued that US and Israeli objectives had already been scaled back. According to him, their objectives had shifted “from regime change to merely securing the Strait of Hormuz,” and disruptions to shipping had forced Iran’s adversaries to “beg” for talks.

Iranian military officials echoed the same defiant tone. A military spokesperson said on Sunday that Iranian forces had long awaited a possible US ground operation and warned Donald Trump not to “drag his soldiers into the jaws of captivity and death and not to plunge the American people into widespread mourning.”

Senior political figures reinforced the same line. First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Aref said negotiations over key issues such as the Strait of Hormuz would be possible only if Iran’s adversaries “pledge not to invade and recognize Iran’s international rights.”

On social media, pro-government users in Iran also largely rejected the idea of compromise. One post on X said: “There continues to be no form of negotiation or message exchange between Iran and America… Iran's decision is to continue the war until the complete achievement of objectives.”

Washington: Optimism and threats

By contrast, Washington has projected a mix of cautious optimism and mounting threats.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that indirect contacts with Iranian figures were continuing through intermediaries.

He said some figures within Iran’s leadership were “saying some of the right things privately,” but added that it was still unclear whether they had the authority to act.

Trump, however, has struck a much more aggressive tone. While insisting that talks are going “extremely well,” he has repeatedly threatened military action, including strikes on critical infrastructure.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, he wrote: “If for any reason a deal is not shortly reached… we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island.”

He also suggested the United States could maintain a presence there, adding to the pressure behind his warnings.

Claims and counterclaims

Trump has also said that Iran recently allowed 20 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz “as a tribute” to the United States.

He said the permit was granted under the authority of Ghalibaf, whom he portrayed as playing an increasingly influential role within Iran’s power structure.

Iranian officials have not publicly confirmed the claim.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said he was dealing with a “very reasonable” new group in Iran and suggested an agreement could be near. He also claimed Tehran had already accepted “most of the points” in his proposed framework.

Last week, Elias Hazrati, head of Iran’s government information council, dismissed reports of a US peace proposal as “media speculations” and a “wish list.”

Information warfare and market signals

Beyond the military and diplomatic rhetoric, both sides appear to be engaged in a parallel battle over information and perception.

In a widely shared English-language post, Ghalibaf accused Trump of trying to move financial markets through strategic messaging. He advised observers to treat such statements as reverse signals, writing: “Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.”

The post, which drew around 10 million views by Monday, showed Tehran’s awareness of what it sees as US information warfare aimed at influencing market volatility.

Online reactions reflected the same view. One Iranian user commented: “They’re playing mind games with the American public to crash the market. And honestly, they’re playing it well. Extremely, extremely well.”

Ali Rezaei Majd still looks toward the rugged peaks of the Zagros Mountains — just beyond them now, across the border in Iraqi territory.

More than six feet tall, with a muscular build, tattoos etched across his body, and long, thick, curly hair, Majd is a presence that’s hard to ignore.

He looks like a fighter. The truth is — he is one.

A proud Lor from Iran’s tribal province of Lorestan, Majd comes from a people known for their deep connection to their land — and for their resilience. The Lors are an Iranian ethnic group rooted in the Zagros region, with a long history shaped by life in the mountains and a culture that values strength, independence and loyalty.

His life has been on the run since early January, when he posted a video from his hometown that would soon be seen around the world.

In it, holding up his Iranian ID, he made a direct plea to then-President Donald Trump and the American people:

“I’m speaking to you from inside Iran… not as a politician, not as a soldier, but as a human being living under fear and oppression every single day… Please don’t forget us.”

The video struck a nerve — garnering over nine million views on Instagram. The English version was also viewed nearly two million times.

But it also made him a target.

Majd says the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began searching for him. With operatives closing in, he fled — crossing mountainous terrain with the help of Kurdish people.

“I was in a prison for 30 years. Iran was like a prison for me,” he told the Eye for Iran podcast.

“When you grow up in a prison, you risk everything for freedom — even for one day.”

Today, his safety remains uncertain, with threats from a regime never far behind.

Now in exile, he is speaking out — with one message above all:

“We cannot make a deal with them. Dealing with them means letting this cancer continue.”

Majd says many of his friends were killed when the regime unleashed force — including heavily armed units — against what he describes as a largely defenseless population.

“When you come to the streets in Iran, you’re going to die,” he said. “They don’t shoot to stop you — they shoot to kill.”

He also has a message for the West — and for the media.

Watching coverage from abroad, Majd says he is frustrated by calls to halt military operations, arguing they misunderstand the reality inside Iran.

“I see many channels trying to stop this operation… saying this is the wrong way,” he said. “But this regime is a threat to the whole world.”

For him, this moment represents something else — a rare opportunity.

“This is the best chance to stop this regime,” he said. “If you don’t stop them, they will become more dangerous.”

He considers himself lucky to be alive.

And now, he says, it is his responsibility to carry the voices of those who can no longer speak.

“The best of us — the bravest — they are gone. So I have to speak for them.”

Majd described the violence he witnessed in chilling terms: “It was like a video game. They were just shooting people — so easily.”

Despite the danger and despite what he says are ongoing threats from regime operatives — Majd continues to speak publicly.

Because for him — and for those who can no longer speak — silence is not an option.

The Shajareh Tayyebeh primary school, located in Minab in Hormozgan province, served boys and girls aged 7 to 12.

The school building stood in an area that once formed part of a Revolutionary Guards naval base but had reportedly been separated from the military compound by a wall for several years. Iranian officials say the school was privately run.

Research by Amnesty International’s Crisis Evidence Lab and its Iran team says US authorities could—and should—have known the building was a school and failed to take feasible precautions to avoid civilian harm.

Amnesty said the findings point at best to a serious intelligence failure by the US military and warned the strike could constitute an indiscriminate attack in violation of international humanitarian law.

Reuters has reported that two sources familiar with the matter said the strike may have resulted from outdated intelligence used during targeting, while an internal US military review found American forces were likely responsible for the attack.

The first strike occurred around 10 a.m. on February 28, when students were resting during a break. The explosion destroyed roughly half of one of the school’s buildings.

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Teachers gathered surviving children in the school’s prayer hall and called parents to collect them. Shortly afterward, a second missile struck the same building, killing many of the remaining children, teachers and some parents who had rushed to the scene.

Iranian officials, including the mayor of Minab and the Ministry of Education, say the school was struck three times in total.

Images published by Iranian media in the days after the attack showed rescue workers pulling remains, severed limbs and children’s backpacks from beneath the rubble.

Iranian authorities say 168 people were killed, including about 120 children, as well as teachers and several parents who had come to retrieve their children after the first explosion. Nearly 100 others were reported injured.

The Norway-based human rights group Hengaw says it has independently identified 58 victims so far, including 48 children and 10 adults.

Behind the casualty figures are the stories of children whose lives ended in ordinary moments between lessons.

Among them were three girls—Mahdis Nazari, 7, and Sonar and Niayesh Salehi, both 9—members of their school’s skating team. Photos shared online before the attack show them at training sessions and competitions.

Iran’s skating federation later confirmed their deaths.

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Another child whose story has circulated widely online is nine-year-old Mikail Mirdoraghi, a third-grade student. A photograph of him standing on the stairs of his home with a water bottle slung over his shoulder, waving goodbye, has been widely shared.

Mikail’s family had moved from Andimeshk in Khuzestan province to Minab because of his father’s job. After the attack, his 31-year-old mother, Shakiba Derikvand, identified his body among victims placed in refrigerated vehicles.

He was found lying beside his friend Alireza, still clutching his school backpack. His body was largely intact, though his face was bloodied, his mother said.

He was buried three days later in Andimeshk. A widely circulated image shows his grandfather lying beside the flower-covered grave.

“Mikail was afraid of the dark,” he reportedly said. “We always slept beside him. I don’t want him to be alone here at night.”

One of the most haunting details to emerge is a drawing Mikail reportedly made the night before the strike.

Found later in his backpack, it shows a school building with the Iranian flag above it, five children standing in the yard and three missiles descending toward them.