A brief Mideast war in June war exposed the weakness of Iran's ties with key allies China and Russia according to an Israeli think-tank, exposing Tehran's isolation in one of its weakest moments.
“The policy of Moscow and Beijing, which consisted of fairly mild condemnations of the Israeli and US strikes in Iran, sparked criticism and disappointment in Tehran," a research paper from the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) said.
“It also reinforced the Iranian assessment that its reliance on Russia and China remains limited, particularly in the event of a military confrontation with Israel and the United States," the report by Danny Citrinowicz and Raz Zimmt added.
The 12-day war, initiated by a surprise campaign of Israeli strikes and assassinations on June 13 which killed senior military figures and nuclear experts, saw Iran fighting both Israel and the US, while China and Russia resisted involvement.
The US struck Iran's three biggest nuclear facilities while Israel took control of Iran's aerial defense systems and destroyed swathes of military and nuclear infrastructure, along with civilian sites such as Evin Prison, leaving its foe much weakened.
Israel too suffered major blows with Iranian missile barrages which struck military and civilian infrastructure.
“It is clear that for now, Iran has no viable alternative to continuing its political, economic, and security partnership, as limited as it may be, with Russia and China, especially given the escalating tensions between Tehran and Europe,” the paper said, referring to the imminent threat of a snapback of UN sanctions due by the end of the month from Britain, France and Germany.
"Likewise, Russia and China, who view Iran as a junior partner in a coalition against the West and the United States, have no real alternative to Tehran, and they are expected to continue the partnership as long as it serves their interests,” the authors said.
Iran relies on China as its number one buyer of oil, and has deep ties with Russia militarily as a supplier of a kamikaze drone which has been key to Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
A diplomatic tightrope
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attended a major military parade in Beijing on Wednesday marking the 80th anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II.
President Xi Jinping, flanked by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, used the parade to project China's military strength, and Pezeshkian appeared to be nearer the back of assembled heads of state.
“(China and Russia) would not hesitate to sacrifice Iran to advance important strategic goals, such as improving relations with Washington," the Israeli researchers added.
The paper noted that there was some caution in Iran's often raucous political discourse about directly criticizing the Eurasian allies.
“Circles identified with the conservative and hardliner wing of Iran’s leadership refrained from voicing similar criticism and instead expressed understanding of Russia and China’s conduct,” the paper said.
“For example, Yadollah Javani, the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, declared that Iran had not requested assistance from Russia or China during the war, emphasizing that the military cooperation agreement between Tehran and Moscow does not obligate Russia to support Iran in wartime.”
Condemnation from Beijing and Moscow
China's foreign ministry "strongly condemned" the Israeli and US strikes, urging de-escalation while Russia slammed them as "unprovoked and unacceptable" in a statement through the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.
In March, the three nations carried out a joint naval drill in the Gulf of Oman, an annual drill the three allies performed in recent years as ties deepened.
“At the conclusion of Operation Rising Lion, pragmatic circles in Iran voiced criticism mainly at Russia and, to a lesser extent, China for refraining from providing assistance to Iran during the war and limiting themselves to condemning the Israeli and American strikes, especially given Iran’s significant military support for Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,” the researchers said, echoing the fears in Iran itself of too much dependence on the two allies.
Baghaei said Iran reduced Australia’s diplomatic presence in response. “According to diplomatic norms and laws, in reaction to Australia’s action, we have also reciprocally reduced the level of Australia’s diplomatic presence in Iran,” he said.
He called the expulsion of Iran’s ambassador “unjustified” and added: “We do not welcome the reduction in relations, because we believe there was no reason or justification for this action, and this issue will affect the relations between the two nations.”
Canberra’s move
Australia last month ordered Iranian Ambassador Ahmad Sadeghi and three other diplomats to leave within seven days.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation had evidence Iran directed two arson attacks on Jewish sites in Sydney and Melbourne in 2024.
Albanese said at the time that Australian diplomats had already left Tehran and were operating from a third country.
Iran rejects charges
Iran dismissed the allegations as baseless and politically motivated. Baghaei said last month that “any inappropriate diplomatic action will be answered in kind,” accusing Canberra of acting under domestic political pressure.
“The concept being invoked [antisemitism] has no place in our religion,” he said, calling it part of a Western narrative. Baghaei also linked the decision to pro-Palestinian protests in Australia against Israel’s war in Gaza.
During a pro-Palestinian march across Sydney’s Harbour Bridge earlier last month, some demonstrators carried images of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar condemned the rally, calling Khamenei “the most dangerous leader of fundamentalist Islam” and accusing protesters of aligning with radical elements.
The Herald said the drone program began in 2006 when Caracas signed a military deal with Tehran. Iranian firm Qods Aviation Industries supplied assembly kits, Venezuelan engineers trained in Iran, and Iranian teams later worked at the El Libertador Air Base in Maracay.
The program has since produced reconnaissance, armed and kamikaze drones modeled on Iranian systems.
“Cooperation with Iran was essential. Not only could Venezuela never have developed drones on its own, but even today it’s the Iranians who control those facilities. Venezuelan personnel can’t enter without their authorization,” one source who asked not to be identified told the Miami Herald.
The paper said it interviewed half a dozen people familiar with the ties between Caracas and Tehran and reviewed Venezuelan government documents — some signed by Chávez — that showed billions of dollars were funneled into the partnership.
Many projects were disguised as civilian ventures, such as bicycle or tractor factories, but served as fronts for more sensitive military work. At the core, Chávez sought weapons that could challenge US military power, the Herald reported.
US alarm over drones
Analysts at US think tanks, including the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Southern Command’s Diálogo Initiative, have described the drones as a “new asymmetric threat.”
They warn that the systems could be used not only against domestic opponents but also transferred to other governments or armed groups in Latin America.
Military buildup
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said earlier this month that Venezuela will deploy drones, warships and about 15,000 troops near Colombia. He said the move is aimed at defending sovereignty and combating drug trafficking.
The Trump administration has ordered guided-missile destroyers, amphibious ships, a cruiser, a submarine and thousands of Marines to the region as part of what it calls anti-narcotics operations. Caracas called the buildup hostile and appealed to the United Nations to intervene.
Broader Iran-Venezuela links
Concerns about Tehran’s role in Venezuela extend beyond drones. Earlier this month, the Daily Mail reported that more than 10,000 individuals from Iran, Syria, and Lebanon were allegedly granted Venezuelan passports between 2010 and 2019. Former US officials told the paper some recipients may already be in the United States.
Persian Gulf exercise as warning
In August, Iran staged its first major naval exercise since the June war with Israel. The two-day drill covered the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. State media showed launches of Qadir and Nasir anti-ship missiles, Ababil drones and electronic warfare systems.
“Iran used this exercise to demonstrate that it can target both military and commercial vessels,” Alma Research and Education Center wrote in a report. Footage of a drone tracking a container ship was described as a direct warning to global shipping companies.
Khamenei representative raises oil price threat
The assessment comes after a representative of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged restrictions on Western shipping in the strait. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, told the state broadcaster last week that such a move could drive oil prices to $200.
“We can impose restrictions against the United States, France, Britain and Germany in the Strait of Hormuz and not allow them to navigate,” Shariatmadari said. “Just by announcing such a restriction, the oil price will surge to $200, and the biggest economic blow will be dealt to the enemy.”
Global warnings
Western governments have said any closure would have severe consequences. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in June that it would be “economic suicide” for Iran.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the idea “extremely dangerous,” while British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said it would be “a monumental act of self-harm.”
Iran has never attempted a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but it has repeatedly seized merchant ships in the Persian Gulf. Security analysts say its mines, fast boats, missiles, and special forces give it multiple options to disrupt global commerce.
