Iran drills revive fears of disruption in Strait of Hormuz, think tank says

“To fulfill the people’s will, let the armed forces stick to their core duties—nothing else. The economy isn’t their job. Propaganda, domestic politics or foreign policy aren’t either,” Rouhani said in a video message posted on his official website on Wednesday.

Rouhani argued that if the Islamic Republic expected its people's support against American and Israeli foes, it must deliver on its promises and avoid corruption.

“An intelligence agency involved in business or trade isn’t intelligence,” Rouhani said.

Reform attempts

The state dominates the economy through oil, banking, and strategic industries, while the IRGC plays a major role in commerce, limiting private sector freedom.

Calls for reform gained the fore during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami from 1997 to 2005, but the momentum waned and gave way to the rise of hardline governments such as that of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Rouhani, his successor, adopted a more pragmatic stance and championed a 2015 nuclear deal which earned him the ire of hardliners and has been shut out of high-profile politics since.

A protege of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founding father of the Islamic Revolution, Rouhani was a longtime head of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security Council before his presidency.

Despite his fall from favor, Rouhani is among the few figures considered a potential successor of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, though his chances have likely ebbed in recent years amid opposition by conservatives.

Popular will

Rouhani also suggested Iran's courts were beholden to entrenched interests, undermining society.

“People want an independent judiciary," he added. "To strengthen domestic governance, this is the path.”

In Iran, the judiciary is closely aligned with theocratic principles, often prioritizing state ideology and well-connected figures over impartiality.

Courts enforce strict Islamic laws, regulate social behavior, mandate the Islamic veil and police public expression.

Rouhani said solidarity between Tehran and its people he says was won in a brief war this summer could be deepened if authorities pursued a measured foreign policy.

“If we do all this and avoid unnecessary foreign policy conflicts or enmities, we’ll have a strong, unified nation standing behind its leadership,” he added.

Since the June 24 ceasefire between Iran and Israel following 12 days of conflict, Tehran has increasingly embraced nationalist symbols, including imagery and figures from the pre-Islamic era, both in public and during state broadcasts.

The first decisive break came with the 2019 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the commander who embodied Iran’s regional network of armed allies and whose elimination was once considered beyond the realm of possibility.

For years, Soleimani symbolized Iran’s ability to project influence across the Middle East. Western policymakers and Israeli officials acknowledged his central role in destabilizing the region, but the notion of his actually being killed was long dismissed as outlandish.

Memoirs and statements from American and Israeli officials confirm he was repeatedly in their crosshairs until January 2020, when President Donald Trump ordered a drone strike on his convoy in Baghdad.

The attack, initially conceived as a joint mission with Israel before it withdrew at the last moment, shattered the regime’s myth of its own invincibility.

Arms broken

Soleimani’s death not only removed Iran’s most visible strategist but also disrupted the command structure of its allied armed groups—damage that remains unrepaired.

If Soleimani’s killing marked the first taboo broken, the next was direct military action on Iranian soil.

For decades, the idea of such strikes lingered at the margins of debate. It was occasionally invoked as a deterrent but rarely treated as feasible.

That barrier has now fallen.

Israeli and American precision airstrikes and even temporary control of Iranian airspace have made operations inside Iran a lived reality.

The bombing of sites deep within the country shows that thresholds once thought inviolable have already been crossed.

Head in the sand

In today’s climate, where the targeting of senior officials has become normalized and attacks on Iranian territory draw limited diplomatic shock, Tehran continues to pursue demands increasingly out of step with global realities.

The Islamic Republic’s insistence on uranium enrichment and nuclear advances, after years of secrecy and deception, has lost its leverage.

None of the old deterrents carry weight: not threats to close strategic straits, not promises of “harsh revenge,” not missile parades or military drills.

What once projected strength now reads as ritual.

By denying the scale of these shifts and clinging to exhausted strategies, Iran’s leaders only accelerate the erosion of their position.

What was once taboo—strikes on leaders, attacks on Iranian territory—is now well-trod precedent, and Tehran’s refusal to confront these realities may only hasten its own undoing.

In a confidential report leaked to reporters on Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran's stock of near-weapons grade uranium increased almost eight percent before Israel attacked its nuclear facilities on June 13.

The report shows Iran had 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%, marking a 7.9% increase since the UN nuclear watchdog’s previous report in May.

"During this reporting period, the Agency lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the current inventories of nuclear material in Iran ...which urgently needs to be addressed," the report said.

It also confirmed for the first time that two of its inspectors took documents from the Fordow site back to Vienna, calling it an "error" that led to Iran withdrawing their designation.

"The incident did not involve any breach of confidentiality," IAEA asserted, lamenting Tehran's decision to bar the inspectors involved from returning to the country.

"While these pages contained some description of the interior of the facility, they did not include content that compromised the security of the facility," the report added.

'Can't wait for months'

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters on Wednesday that another round of talks with Iran is due in Vienna this week and emphasized the need to investigate and verify Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.

"It’s not something that can drag on for months,” Grossi told Reuters. “It would be ideal to reach an agreement before next week."

Since US military strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites on June 22, IAEA inspectors have only accessed another site that was left unscathed - the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

Following Israeli and other military strikes on Iran, the Iranian parliament passed a bill imposing restrictions on inspection and access cooperation with the IAEA.

Any new cooperation mechanism must now be approved by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and no agreement for inspections or resumption of IAEA work has been reached.

"We have reminded our Iranian counterparts that domestic laws create obligations for Iran, not the IAEA," Grossi said.

Grossi stressed the need to investigate Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, saying no evidence suggests significant movement of the material.

“I believe there is a general understanding that the material is likely still there, but it must be verified. Some could have been lost,” he said. “We have no indications of major material movement.”

Following the activation of the UN sanctions snapback mechanism by France, Germany and the United Kingdom last week, Tehran warned of an unspecified response.

“While Western leaders gather in diplomacy, an autocratic alliance is seeking a fast track to a new world order,” Kallas told reporters in Brussels. “Looking at President Xi standing alongside the leaders of Russia, Iran and North Korea in Beijing today, these aren’t just anti-Western optics: This is a direct challenge to the international system built on rules.”

Xi projects power in Beijing

The comments came as Chinese President Xi Jinping stood flanked by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Tiananmen Square for a showpiece military parade. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was also present, joining more than 25 world leaders at the commemoration of Japan’s surrender in World War II.

Xi warned that humanity faced a choice between “peace or war, dialogue or confrontation” as he oversaw displays of hypersonic missiles, underwater drones and fighter jets. The parade featured tens of thousands of troops in a spectacle that China framed as a symbol of global solidarity with the developing world.

Iran joins sanctioned leaders on stage

For Iran, Pezeshkian’s attendance highlighted its growing alignment with Beijing and Moscow. His presence followed months of speculation after he did not appear at Russia’s Victory Day parade in May, despite Tehran’s deepening security and energy ties with Moscow. The absence then sparked domestic debate in Iran over how its relationship with Russia was being perceived.

Iranian officials have stressed they are seeking to use “every diplomatic capacity” in the East to ease pressure from sanctions and revive leverage in nuclear talks. Standing alongside Xi, Putin and Kim placed Pezeshkian visibly within a bloc of leaders under Western sanctions.

Trump reacts as Kremlin plays down

US President Donald Trump, who was not at the parade, wrote on social media: “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America.” The Kremlin rejected the idea, saying Putin was not conspiring against Washington.

On Wednesday, the rights groups said more than 20,000 people have been arrested since June 13, when Israeli forces struck Iranian military and nuclear sites in a series of surprise attacks. Many detainees face charges carrying the death penalty.

“The authorities’ domestic machinery of repression remains unrelenting as they ratchet up already oppressive widespread surveillance, mass arrests and incitement to discrimination, hostility and violence against minorities,” Sara Hashash, Deputy Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa at Amnesty International said.

Those detained include political dissidents, journalists, social media users, families of victims of earlier protests, Afghans, and members of Iran’s Kurdish, Baluch, Baha’i, Christian and Jewish minorities, according to Amnesty and HRW.

Security forces have been accused of killing civilians at checkpoints, including a three-year-old girl.

At least nine men have been executed on charges widely seen as politically motivated or linked to accusations of spying for Israel.

Executions and new legislation

Those cooperating with Israel faced “serious punishment, including the death penalty,” Gholamhossein Mohseni Eje’i, Iran’s judiciary chief, warned in July.

Approximately 21,000 people had been arrested, police spokesperson Saeed Montazer Al-Mahdi announced in a statement on August 12.

State media have echoed calls for expedited trials, with some outlets openly invoking the 1988 prison massacres when thousands of political prisoners were summarily executed.

In the first half of 2025, Iran carried out 612 executions—double the number in previous years—prompting alarm from UN human rights bodies.

Parliament has also advanced legislation expanding the use of capital punishment by defining espionage for “hostile governments” as “corruption on earth,” a charge that carries the death penalty. The bill awaits approval by the Guardian Council.

Targeting minorities

“Since June, the human rights situation in Iran has spiraled deeper into crisis with Iranian authorities scapegoating and targeting dissidents and minorities for a conflict they had nothing to do with,” said Michael Page, Deputy Middle East and North Africa Director at HRW.

At least 330 of the country's long-targeted Kurds have been detained since the war began, while Baluch women were among those killed during raids in the volatile Sistan and Baluchestan province.

Baha’i homes and businesses have been searched, and dozens of community members have been jailed on accusations of spying for Israel. Christians and Jews have also faced arrests and interrogations, with reports of coerced televised confessions, added Amnesty.

Calls for accountability

Amnesty and HRW urged the immediate release of those arbitrarily detained, a halt to executions, and international investigations under universal jurisdiction. The crackdown signals “a looming human rights catastrophe” for Iran’s most vulnerable groups, they said.

Without outside pressure, the combination of mass arrests, rushed trials, and discriminatory targeting could entrench a cycle of repression that deepens the humanitarian fallout of the June conflict, the organizations warned.