Firsthand reports from contributors inside Iran
I am online again after 51 days. It is difficult to describe what things feel like here in Tehran. Bad is not quite the word. Weird, perhaps. Unreal.
The question on most minds is this: how did we get here? And where are we going?
In about ten months we have lived through a huge protest, a deadly crackdown and two wars. Both, from where most of us stand, utterly futile.
Leaders in Washington and Tel Aviv may declare victory. The rulers in Tehran—whoever truly holds power right now—will say they have been vindicated. Exiled opposition figures urge people inside Iran to fight again.
But people here are exhausted. Completely spent, at least for now.
The economic shock is already visible. Layoffs are spreading and prices keep rising. Inflation has reached the point where people joke that of course the shops are full of basic goods because no one can afford to buy them.
It is still unclear how badly steel plants and petrochemical facilities have been damaged in US-Israeli strikes. But these so-called “mother industries” sit at the heart of Iran’s economy. If they falter, the disruption will soon ripple everywhere.
Meanwhile diplomats and besuited Revolutionary Guards commanders haggle over uranium enrichment and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, supposedly on our behalf, but without ever asking whether we are willing to pay the price for these grand strategies.
Even the language we once used to describe life here has begun to feel worn out. Talking about the “struggle for subsistence” sounds almost hackneyed now.
Last year I wrote that when people in Iran speak about the future they usually mean tomorrow, or perhaps next week at best. Now even that horizon has shrunk.
The future, psychologically, has been shut down as a coping mechanism. People do not want to imagine more bombs. And they want even less to imagine the Islamic Republic surviving all this—perhaps harsher and more unified after two rounds of war.
President Trump says Iran’s capabilities have been “obliterated.” From where we stand, the only thing truly obliterated is morale. He says “regime change” is complete. Here, we have not even seen it begin.
The authorities and their supporters appear firmly in control of the streets. Night after night they stage loud displays of celebration—part rally, part carnival—proclaiming victory and, implicitly, daring anyone who disagrees to come outside.
Even if a grand bargain emerges somewhere between capitals and diplomats, ordinary people here are not on anyone’s agenda.
I have no figures, but I suspect fewer than one in a thousand people currently has any meaningful internet access. And even that connection is so slow that voice messages barely work.
Almost no one outside seems to notice how isolated we have become. Soon, they say, even text messages will be capped. The country is being sealed off, one piece of red tape at a time.
And still life goes on. People go to work—the lucky ones. People eat, drive, hang out. But when you look into their eyes, there is often very little soul behind them.
That does not mean things will never improve. They might. But we have stopped hoping.
“I work as a freelance web developer and my income has dropped to zero because of the internet outage. I am selling my belongings to cover debts,” a citizen wrote in a message to Iran International.
Another said: “As a student and computer technician, I am stuck in uncertainty. Online classes are heavily disrupted, and I cannot even access the internet to complete projects. My workplace has no customers.”
NetBlocks said on Thursday the disruption had lasted 1,128 hours, describing the shutdown as unprecedented in scale for a country with deep reliance on global connectivity. The group added that its estimate, based on its COST methodology, also reflects wider social and human rights impacts.
Digital economy grinds to a halt
The outage has hit Iran’s digital sector, which had absorbed part of the country’s unemployment pressure over the past decade. Online businesses have lost access to customers, payment systems, and essential tools tied to the global internet.
The Rokna news website said on Wednesday the disruption amounted to a shutdown of the digital economy, noting that the cut to international internet access dealt a direct blow to online businesses.
Hundreds of small digital enterprises have been unable to maintain sales, customer communication, or after-sales services. Layoffs have spread across technology firms and media organizations, affecting employees whose work depends on stable connectivity, the outlet added.
Journalists and media workers have also faced income losses and job cuts as communication channels narrowed and publishing operations slowed, according to the report.
Workers face mounting financial strain
“I managed to connect briefly using expensive VPNs, but I have lost my job due to the internet disruption. I have loans to repay and rent to cover, and many others are in the same situation,” another citizen told Iran International.
Accounts from across the country point to a broader slowdown. “Prices have increased several times over. Many people have lost their jobs. At least 50 percent of shops are closed,” one resident said, adding that only essential services such as repair shops and small markets remain partially active.
Delays in salary payments have become more common in some businesses, increasing pressure on workers already affected by rising prices. Inflation has further reduced real wages, leaving even those still employed struggling to cover basic living costs.
Professional networks also reflect the downturn. Users on LinkedIn have publicly said they are seeking new job opportunities, indicating a rise in job seekers among skilled and experienced workers.
Experts warn of lasting damage
Economic journalist Arezoo Karimi said the losses extend beyond immediate income declines, warning of wider consequences for employment and growth.
“This means zero income for businesses that depend on international connectivity. It leads to layoffs and rising unemployment,” Karimi said, adding that daily losses run into tens of millions of dollars.
Karimi said the broader economic impact could reach several times the direct losses, pointing to reduced production and slower economic growth. Inflation, already elevated, is likely to worsen if disruptions continue.
“Businesses are not only losing income, they are losing their position in international markets and online visibility. These are damages that cannot easily be reversed,” Karimi added.
With limited access to global markets and tools, many digital workers now face a choice between prolonged uncertainty and leaving the country.
The outage has exposed the dependence of Iran’s digital economy on stable international connectivity, with weeks of disruption enough to dismantle businesses built over years.
Fatemeh Mohajerani, the spokesperson for the Iranian government, said on Tuesday losses from the US-Israeli military campaign are estimated at around $270 billion.
The New York Times, citing three Iranian officials and two economists, reported that early estimates broadly align with that figure, placing the damage at roughly $300 billion or higher.
Preliminary estimates by the US-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies also suggest Iran absorbed roughly $150–$300 billion in economic damage.
Using a population of about 92 million, the lower estimate of $150 billion translates to roughly $1,600 per person, rising to nearly $3,250 per person under the higher estimate.
These figures reflect national wealth lost through destruction, halted production and disrupted trade.
Iran’s central bank has warned President Masoud Pezeshkian that rebuilding the country’s war-damaged economy could take more than a decade, sources familiar with internal deliberations told Iran International.
In a stark assessment delivered to the president in recent days, senior economic officials said the damage inflicted during the 40-day war with the United States and Israel—combined with Iran’s already fragile economic situation—could take up to 12 years to repair.
Industrial sectors bear largest losses
Petrochemicals account for the largest share of damage. Iran’s petrochemical sector, with annual sales of $29.1 billion, has seen about 85% of export capacity disrupted following strikes on major hubs including Mahshahr and South Pars. Estimated losses range from $30 billion to $50 billion.
Energy infrastructure has also been heavily affected. Refineries, storage depots and gas facilities have been struck, weakening a sector that generated about $78 billion in exports in 2024. Losses are estimated at $15 billion to $25 billion.
Steel production, which underpins both industrial output and reconstruction, has been severely reduced, with about 70% of capacity disrupted. Losses are estimated at $5 billion to $10 billion.
Beyond physical losses, the war has triggered a sharp contraction in output.
Experts estimated a decline of more than 10% in GDP, equivalent to $34 billion to $44 billion in lost economic activity, affecting an economy that was already under strain before the conflict.
Beyond physical damage, policy-driven disruptions have compounded the losses.
Internet shutdown
A nationwide internet blackout beginning Feb. 28 has imposed additional costs.
Direct losses are estimated at $37 million to $42 million per day, totaling $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion over more than five weeks.
Afshin Kolahi, a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, said Monday indirect losses could raise the daily figure to $70 million to $80 million due to disruption to online businesses.
Online sales fell by about 80% during the shutdown, while the Tehran Stock Exchange lost 450,000 points within four days.
The shutdown is affecting multiple layers of the economy simultaneously, according to economic analyst Masoumeh Taherkhani.
“The Iranian economy is damaged at three levels by internet disruption, starting with the digital core, which employs between four and five million people,” Taherkhani told Iran International. “Then the platform layer collapses, and finally the broader economy is affected in a way that spreads across production and services.”
Taherkhani said the combined effect leads to widespread job losses. “When the economy is fully stagnant, the outcome is unemployment for workers, and that is not something that can easily be reversed,” she said.
Trade disruption and self-inflicted losses
Disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have added further pressure, with estimated losses of $5 billion to $15 billion.
The restrictions have affected imports of essential goods and weakened non-oil exports, contributing to supply chain disruptions across the economy.
A US naval blockade targeting Iran’s maritime trade routes is expected to deepen losses.
Sanctions strategist and former US Treasury official Miad Maleki estimated that cutting off seaborne trade could eliminate about $435 million in daily economic activity, equivalent to roughly $13 billion per month.
Iran relies on the Persian Gulf for more than 90% of its trade, leaving it highly exposed to sustained disruption.
Oil exports of about 1.5 million barrels per day – generating roughly $139 million daily – could be halted almost entirely, removing the country’s main source of foreign currency.
What the losses could have funded
The scale of damage corresponds to investment levels that could have reshaped core sectors of the economy.
A large combined-cycle power plant with capacity of around 1,000 to 1,500 megawatts typically costs between $600 million and $1 billion to build, depending on technology and fuel infrastructure.
At the lower estimate of $150 billion in losses, Iran could have financed roughly 150 to 250 such plants. At the upper estimate of $300 billion, that rises to between 300 and 500 plants, enough to eliminate electricity shortages and significantly expand export capacity.
In housing, average construction costs for a modest apartment unit range between $30,000 and $50,000. With $150 billion, between 3 million and 5 million housing units could have been built. At $300 billion, that increases to roughly 6 million to 10 million units, enough to address shortages across major urban areas.
High-speed rail construction typically costs between $20 million and $40 million per kilometer. The lower estimate of losses could have funded approximately 3,750 to 7,500 kilometers of rail, while the higher estimate could support up to 15,000 kilometers, connecting major cities nationwide.
A modern hospital costs between $200 million and $500 million to construct and equip. The lower-end losses could have built 300 to 750 hospitals, while the higher estimate could fund up to 1,500 facilities, expanding healthcare access across the country.
What it means for individual Iranians
The per capita loss of up to $3,250 represents a substantial share of annual income for many households.
With average monthly earnings between $150 and $200, an individual earns roughly $1,800 to $2,400 per year, meaning a $3,250 equivalent exceeds a full year of income for many citizens.
If such an amount were available, it could cover between 12 and 20 months of living expenses for an average worker. Families could use it toward housing costs, including down payments or completing home purchases in smaller cities.
Small businesses could be launched with startup capital of $2,000 to $5,000, enabling self-employment in sectors such as retail, services or online commerce. Households could also afford private healthcare, education or relocation costs that are otherwise beyond reach.
Even the lower estimate per person represents several months of income, providing a buffer against inflation, job loss or unexpected expenses.
The overall range reflects damage already incurred, with additional losses building as trade, production and financial flows remain disrupted.
At up to $3,250 per person and rising, the economic toll underscores the scale of damage to Iran’s productive capacity, with long-term implications for recovery and growth.
