Iran International
Calls for systemic reform and restructuring of Iran’s political and security institutions have intensified after a 12-day war with Israel in June, accompanied by some signs of change but also many signs of continuity.
The Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) is already undergoing structural changes, according to semi-official Fars News, which reported on Friday that former hardline ex-nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani could be appointed as the SNSC’s new chief.
The report also suggested that a new Defense Council may be formed to guide the country’s strategic defense agenda.
Larijani, a longtime conservative figure with moderate tendencies, was closely associated with former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani—widely recognized as the architect of pragmatism in Iranian politics.
His return to a senior security role could signal a shift toward a more flexible approach to domestic and foreign policy, though his recent postwar remarks have closely aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s positions.
Establishment hints at change
Nour News, closely linked to the SNSC, also signaled these impending changes in a July 30 post. More notably, it criticized the state broadcaster for airing interviews with individuals hostile to Western values, warning that such programming “may even lead to undesirable outcomes.”
The call for reform—long associated with Iran’s reformist factions—is now being echoed by conservative figures, reflecting shifting perceptions within the political establishment. Some have warned that failure to adapt after the war could lead to public unrest and new security challenges.
Ayatollah Mohsen Gharavian, a lecturer at the Qom Seminary, said in a July 31 interview with Khabar Online that “the Islamic Republic must revise its mode of governance in light of the war.” He specifically urged an end to government pressure on Iranian women regarding compulsory hijab rules.
He also called for major reforms in both domestic and foreign policy, asserting that Iran’s leadership now recognizes “the tremendous power of patriotism” and is exploring ways to ease the pressure on the weary citizenry.
‘Making up with people’
Ali Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister and senior advisor to Khamenei, likewise advocated “some social changes to meet public demands,” drawing harsh backlash from ultraconservative media outlets.
Amid rising pressure, President Massoud Pezeshkian withdrew a controversial bill he had previously submitted to parliament that would have further restricted media freedom and access to information.
The conservative daily Farhikhtegan published a July 31 commentary titled “The Next Steps After the War,” urging a deeper understanding of Iran’s sociopolitical conditions to better anticipate future challenges.
While acknowledging Iranian claims of victory, the commentary emphasized credible counterarguments and criticized state television’s complacency.
It called for an assessment of public resilience amid postwar challenges—including energy shortages and the potential return of UN sanctions—which the editorial warned could provoke industrial action or even widespread protests.
Karami calls it an “engineered drought”—a manufactured emergency that lets authorities avoid long-overdue reforms while shifting the financial burden to citizens.
“There is water,” he said. “But it costs the government more to deliver it in the summer—so they shift the burden to the public instead.”
Only 20–30% of Iran’s water shortage, Karami argues, is due to climate change. The rest is policy-driven—and reversible.
But instead of investing in infrastructure or reforming water use, the government relies on fear to suppress demand, while consumer prices remain unchanged.
“If people reduce their consumption just a little, it saves the government a lot of money,” he explained. “The price they pay for water stays the same, but the state spends less.”
The consequences are devastating.
Across the country, families are going days without water. Residents are hoarding bottles, installing rooftop tanks and depending on tanker trucks—some of which deliver polluted or undrinkable supplies.
Satellite imagery obtained by Iran International shows Tehran’s main reservoirs—Amir Kabir, Lar, and Latyan—at historic lows, holding less than 10% of their usable capacity.
Meanwhile, the capital is literally sinking. Over-pumping aquifers has caused parts of Tehran to subside by more than 10 inches a year.
The crisis is fixable, Karami says, yet the system profits from public panic as ordinary Iranians are left to suffer.
“This is not the first time they’ve said Tehran would run out of water in two weeks,” Karami said. “And yet, the water keeps flowing.”
Beyond drought
"The solution is: you have to take part of the water from agriculture and give it to the people. That is very easy," Karami said.
Agriculture, he said, consumes more than 90% of Iran’s freshwater annually, yet contributes just 9-12% of GDP and employs only about 17% of the workforce. In contrast, households use just 4-5%, and industry only 1%.
Despite its relatively small economic footprint, agriculture’s massive water consumption places unsustainable pressure on Iran’s finite freshwater supplies.
But Karami says this isn’t conventional agriculture but in large part state-guided enterprise aimed at provisioning Iran's sprawling military.
"They’re using all water resources for agriculture to make enough food for the soldiers," he said.
Wells proliferation
The numbers tell the story: Iran’s cultivated land has more than doubled since 1979. Deep wells have exploded from 40,000 to over one million. Roughly 40% of agricultural water is wasted in transport or lost to outdated irrigation methods.
Karami says just a 5% cut in agricultural water use would free up enough water—4 to 5 billion cubic meters—to supply Iran’s entire urban population.
He believes efficiency is possible: through irrigation upgrades, reduced waste, and mechanizing half of Iran’s farmland. But he doubts the political will exists to pursue it.
“We’re the first in the world for soil erosion. First in desertification,” Karami warned.
"The main legacy of the Islamic Republic won’t just be executions or war. It will be this: environmental collapse."
Despite the scale of the suffering, Karami doubts the current crisis will trigger mass protests. He believes the authorities will likely resolve the immediate shortages in the coming weeks—just enough to defuse tension and avoid unrest.
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The term—now increasingly invoked in political discourse—refers to an unofficial power network believed to influence key decisions behind the scenes, beyond the authority of the Foreign Ministry.
In an unsigned commentary on Tuesday, the conservative Jomhouri Eslami newspaper accused the ministry of failing to assert control over foreign policy, blaming Tehran’s limited success on interference from shadow actors.
“Those whose heavy shadow over the 2015 nuclear deal and many negotiations caused irreparable damage continue to dictate terms in foreign policy, especially in the realm of negotiations,” it wrote.
The piece warned that such interference, “under the very sensitive current circumstances, is more dangerous than deadly poison.”
Jalili in the Crosshairs
Although no names were mentioned, Iranian media widely interpreted the remarks as targeting ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili and his circle of allies in the Paydari Party.
Jalili, who lost the 2024 presidential election to Masoud Pezeshkian, previously served as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator during the years leading up to 2010, when multiple rounds of UN sanctions were imposed on Tehran.
He remains a trusted figure for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, serving as his representative to the Supreme National Security Council and sitting on both the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations and the Expediency Discernment Council.
A day after the Jomhouri Eslami piece, the IRGC-affiliated Javan newspaper hit back.
“If this alleged shadow government truly exists, why doesn’t Jomhouri Eslami reveal its leaders and operators?” it asked. “And if the claim is entirely false, why doesn’t the public prosecutor step in? Is the reputation of the Islamic Republic to be handed out freely to whoever wishes to exploit it?”
Sanctions looming, stakes rising
The controversy underscores growing divisions over Iran’s foreign policy direction following the 12-day war with Israel.
Moderates are calling for serious diplomacy and a renewed effort to reach agreements with the US and Europe. Hardliners, meanwhile, accuse them of appeasement and advocate for a more confrontational approach.
With the return of UN sanctions looming under the nuclear deal’s snapback provision, Tehran has warned European governments it may pull out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in retaliation—threatening a complete breakdown in diplomatic engagement.
