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ANALYSIS

The strange stability between Tehran and the Taliban

Mahboob Shah Mahboob
Mahboob Shah Mahboob

Afghanistan International

May 10, 2026, 22:56 GMT+1
Taliban soldiers celebrate on the second anniversary of the fall of Kabul on a street near the US embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, August 15, 2023.
Taliban soldiers celebrate on the second anniversary of the fall of Kabul on a street near the US embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, August 15, 2023.

The relationship between the Taliban and Iran, once marked by military confrontation and nearly pushed to war, is now defined by caution and quiet engagement.

The Taliban, who present themselves as representatives of a hardline Sunni Islamist movement, and the Iranian system, one of the main centers of Shiite political power, now maintain relations in which practical politics and mutual necessity have largely replaced deep-rooted sectarian hostility.

At first glance, the relationship appears contradictory. The 1998 Mazar-e-Sharif incident, when Iranian diplomats were killed and both sides nearly went to war, remains firmly embedded in the memory of both regimes.

Yet more than two decades later, the regional landscape has changed, enemies have shifted and one principle has again proven true: in the Middle East and across Central and South Asia, religion is often expressed rhetorically while decisions are driven by political interests.

From opposition to engagement

When the Taliban returned to power in 2021, Iran was among the few countries that did not completely shut its doors. Tehran neither formally recognized the Taliban administration nor severed ties with it.

Iran understood that an Afghanistan facing economic collapse, international isolation and political uncertainty contained both risks and opportunities—and chose engagement over exclusion.

The Taliban, constrained by sanctions, frozen assets and diplomatic isolation, were in turn forced to rely on neighboring countries. Iran—with its long shared border, fuel, electricity, transit routes and regional influence—became a practical partner.

After the death of Mullah Omar, the Taliban’s second leader, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, emerged as a central bridge to Iran. His close associates, including Ibrahim Sadr, Mullah Shirin and Mullah Talib, established Sunni religious schools in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan region.

Over the past two decades, Iran pursued what Afghan officials describe as a “multi-track policy,” maintaining ties with Afghanistan’s republican government while simultaneously expanding covert and overt contacts with the Taliban to preserve influence under any future political arrangement.

Former senior Afghan presidential adviser Mohammad Iqbal Azizi says Iran significantly deepened ties with the Taliban after 2004, largely because of shared opposition to the US military presence.

“That’s why Mullah Mansour, Ibrahim Sadr and others went to Iran and received support from there,” he said.

Former head of Afghanistan’s Presidential Administrative Office Fazl Mahmood Fazli told Afghanistan International that some tribes maintain longstanding links with Iran.

“In recent years, Ishaqzai, Noorzai and Alizai Taliban commanders even cooperated with the IRGC in smuggling operations, and these relations have become so strong that they have now taken on a new form of partnership,” he said.

Former Pakistani senator Afrasiab Khattak said Iran has long maintained relations across Afghanistan’s political spectrum.

“Afghanistan is important for Iran, and its relations with Afghan governments are based on pragmatic politics,” he said. “Iran simply cannot operate on a purely religious basis.”

Khattak added that Iran invested heavily in ties with the Taliban during the war years and that its influence over some Taliban figures remains visible.

A key factor driving closer ties has been the Taliban’s deteriorating relationship with Pakistan. Relations with Iran help the Taliban avoid isolation, while Tehran understands the leverage this dependency creates.

Shared threats, shared interests

A central factor in improving Taliban-Iran relations has been the logic of shared threats.

The US military presence in Afghanistan represented a mutual challenge for both sides and laid the groundwork for gradual rapprochement. Iran sought to limit US influence while the Taliban fought directly against it.

Iran also faced broader security concerns linked to Afghanistan: border stability, ISIS-Khorasan, Baloch militancy, drug trafficking and refugee flows. From Tehran’s perspective, many of these issues could only be managed through engagement with the Taliban.

Economic factors also play a major role. Sanctions and isolation have pushed the Taliban toward regional economic networks, with Iran becoming an important supplier of fuel, electricity and goods. Tehran meanwhile seeks access to Afghanistan’s market, transit routes and water resources.

Relations between Kabul and Tehran appear to have grown closer following recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Facing pressure from Washington, Israel and parts of the Arab world, Tehran appears increasingly unwilling to lose Taliban cooperation.

A founding member of the Taliban movement, speaking anonymously to Afghanistan International-Pashto, said Mullah Akhtar Mansour opposed basing ties with Iran on sectarian identity.

“I remember in 2000 when Mullah Akhtar Mansour came to Pakistan and we met in Quetta,” he recalled. “Mansour carried a message from Mullah Mohammad Omar saying relations with Iran should be built on interests—not religious differences.”

He added that Iran supported Taliban forces in Helmand, Herat, Kandahar, Zabul, Ghazni, Maidan Wardak and Farah during the insurgency.

Former Afghan acting defense minister Shah Mahmood Miakhel said shared fears over ISIS-Khorasan have also created room for cooperation.

“The Taliban have learned from their first rule that conflict with Iran costs them dearly,” he said. “And Iran now feels more reassured because of the Taliban’s deteriorating relations with Pakistan.”

Iran and Afghanistan share nearly 900 kilometers of border, while refugee flows, narcotics trafficking, smuggling and water disputes remain impossible to manage without sustained engagement.

Abdul Ghafoor Liwal, the last ambassador of Afghanistan’s former republican government to Iran, said Tehran openly acknowledged its pragmatic reasoning.

“Iran officially told me that the Taliban are enemies of the United States, and so are we,” he said. “And because Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan, it is compelled to maintain relations with the Taliban.”

A Taliban Foreign Ministry official, also speaking anonymously, said the relationship is driven heavily by economics.

“Afghanistan is a good market for Iran, and Iran is a good source of goods for us,” he said.

Pragmatism without trust

Despite growing cooperation, the relationship remains constrained by deep ideological and geopolitical divides.

Iran’s Shiite Islamic Republic derives legitimacy from the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih, while the Taliban adhere to a hardline Sunni Deobandi interpretation of Islam. The two sides do not view each other as natural allies so much as necessary and manageable rivals.

Regional rivalries further complicate the picture. Just as India-Pakistan competition shapes Afghanistan, so too does the rivalry between Iran and Arab states.

Although the Taliban have avoided directly condemning Iranian attacks on Arab countries, they have at times described regional escalation as destabilizing. Taliban officials also seek stronger relations with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, making outright alignment with Tehran difficult.

The Taliban continue seeking better relations with the United States and Europe, particularly in hopes of easing diplomatic isolation and refugee pressures.

Domestically and bilaterally, disputes over Afghan refugees and Helmand River water rights remain persistent sources of tension.

The Taliban also hope Iran will eventually recognize their government formally. Tehran, however, appears determined to keep recognition as leverage.

For now, necessity binds Tehran and the Taliban more tightly than ideology divides them. But the relationship rests less on trust than on a volatile region in which both sides fear isolation more than each other.

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Canada’s Middle East role: From Pearson’s legacy to passive diplomacy

May 8, 2026, 22:43 GMT+1
•
Mahsa Mortazavi

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, critics say Canada’s “values-based realism” has left Ottawa a passive observer rather than an influential middle power confronting Iran’s threats and regional crises.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized diplomacy, multilateral cooperation and commitment to a rules-based international order. But critics, including parts of Canada’s Iranian diaspora and opposition politicians, describe Ottawa’s current approach as “beautiful words without operational backing."

Just one month before the start of Operation Epic Fury, Carney told the World Economic Forum in Davos that Canada would pursue a “values-based realism” approach, which he presented as a return to the country’s historical diplomatic role on the world stage.

Seventy years ago, during the Suez Crisis, Canada helped chart a path between war and paralysis through the initiative of Lester B. Pearson in establishing the first United Nations Emergency Force.

That episode became central to Canada’s diplomatic self-image as a middle power able to defuse conflicts through coalition-building and multilateral institutions.

It is this legacy that has raised expectations for Ottawa to play a meaningful role in today’s Middle East crises, from Iran’s nuclear program to security in the Strait of Hormuz.

Critics say the reality on the ground tells a different story.

Carney’s initial response to the latest tensions combined support, concern and caution. He stressed the need to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons, while also insisting that all parties, including the United States and Israel, must adhere to international law.

On the Strait of Hormuz, Ottawa has emphasized international cooperation, legal frameworks for maritime security and efforts to restore safe shipping lanes. Critics argue the approach amounts to crisis management without addressing the root causes.

Leo Housakos, leader of Canada’s Conservatives in the Senate, delivered a sharper critique in an exclusive interview with Iran International. He said Canada had shown leniency toward the Islamic Republic and argued that the government’s moral statements, without concrete action, had weakened Ottawa’s international credibility.

Housakos said Canadian foreign policy had become overly reactive to the actions of others and that the country no longer creates diplomatic opportunities as it once did. According to him, Ottawa often arrives late to negotiations and settles for participating in decisions already shaped by larger powers.

These criticisms also resonate among many Iranian Canadians. For them, diplomacy only has meaning if the available tools are properly used — from stricter enforcement of sanctions and immigration laws to confronting the Islamic Republic’s financial and influence networks inside Canada.

The case of Mehdi Taj, head of Iran’s football federation and a former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, became a prominent example of that debate.

Iran International reported that Taj had been granted a Temporary Resident Permit, a document that can allow entry for someone otherwise deemed inadmissible under normal circumstances.

After the report was published and political pressure mounted in Ottawa, Taj and his companions left Canada shortly after arriving. The incident renewed questions about how seriously Canada enforces its designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization.

Housakos said Canada cannot simultaneously claim to stand with the Iranian people while showing leniency toward the Islamic Republic in practice. He argued that phrases such as human rights, women’s rights and freedom of expression should not remain rhetorical flourishes in speeches but should be reflected in government policy decisions.

According to critics, the current crisis is a test of Canada’s diplomatic capital. They say Ottawa still has the capacity, as a middle power, to help build new coalitions, defend freedom of navigation, contain nuclear threats and support Iranian civil society.

But they argue that role can only be revived if Canada moves beyond the broad language of diplomacy and demonstrates political will in practice — the very gap critics say now defines the distance between Canada’s diplomatic rhetoric and the realities of its foreign policy.

Iran runs dry as Islamic Republic funds ideology and foreign proxies

May 8, 2026, 19:26 GMT+1
•
Mohammad Nayeb Yazdi, Mehdi Ketabchy, Saeed Ghasseminejad

Iran’s water crisis is not only about scarcity or drought. It is also about where the Islamic Republic chooses to spend the country’s money, and what it leaves unfunded at home.

In a system where political and ideological objectives consistently outweigh environmental sustainability and public welfare, even severe and widely recognized crises fail to trigger meaningful correction.

In this sense, Iran’s water crisis is not a failure of resources, it is a consequence of deliberate choices. The impact of decades of misguided water engineering and policy decisions is already visible across Iran’s water systems.

Major lakes and wetlands such as Urmia Lake have shrunk. Groundwater has been depleted across more than half of the country’s plains, land subsidence is accelerating, and per capita water availability has fallen to near or below 1,000 cubic meters.

At the same time, access to reliable drinking water has become increasingly uncertain. Water quality is declining because of inadequate wastewater treatment and aging infrastructure, while policy still emphasizes large-scale agricultural self-sufficiency despite mounting environmental constraints.

It would be easy to assume that these failures could stem partially from financial limitations. But this is not a story of absolute constraint. Even under sanctions, Iran has continued to generate substantial revenues, particularly from oil exports, over the past decade.

The water crisis is not necessarily due to a lack of resources, but how those resources are allocated. Based on Iran’s FY1404 (2025-2026) public budget, significant funding is still directed toward religious and ideological institutions, amounting to roughly $750 to $860 million annually, depending on exchange rates.

At the same time, Iran’s regional activities, including support for groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and allied militias, are widely estimated, based on publicly reported figures, to cost an additional $1.1 to $1.5 billion each year.

These estimates reflect direct financial transfers and likely understate total support, which also includes substantial non-cash assistance such as weapons, equipment, and logistical backing.

In total, nearly $1.8 to $2.4 billion per year is allocated to priorities that do little to address Iran’s most urgent domestic challenges. Even redirecting a portion of these resources toward water management and infrastructure could support large-scale, practical solutions. Over a five-year period, such a shift would mobilize roughly $10 billion, enough to move beyond short-term fixes and begin addressing some of the structural drivers of Iran’s water crisis.

Based on order-of-magnitude cost benchmarks for standard water infrastructure projects, a reallocation of roughly $10 billion over five years could finance a coherent national water program. This would include a full-scale effort to reduce water losses in Tehran’s aging distribution network, where non-revenue water (NRW), water lost before it reaches consumers due to leaks, aging infrastructure, and inefficiencies is estimated at roughly 25 to 30 percent.

It could also support the deployment of potable reuse facilities across major urban centers such as Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Shiraz, Yazd, and Ahvaz, helping relieve pressure on overstretched freshwater supplies.

In parallel, a targeted desalination and conveyance package could be implemented for Sistan and Baluchestan province, designed specifically to secure drinking water in a region facing chronic shortages, rather than to support inland agriculture.

Such an investment could also enable the construction of dozens of wastewater treatment plants nationwide, depending on facility size and treatment level, addressing both water quality degradation and reuse potential in regions struggling with untreated discharge.

Beyond urban infrastructure, even limited investments in agriculture could deliver measurable benefits. For example, modernizing irrigation in a single province such as Isfahan, where more efficient systems can reduce water use by roughly 30 to 60 percent, could significantly lower demand in one of Iran’s most water-stressed regions.

Even at the current economic development and growth, over a five-year period, roughly $10 billion directed toward ideological priorities could instead finance a nationwide water recovery program: upgrading Tehran’s water distribution system to reduce losses, building 10 potable reuse facilities for major cities, developing seven coastal desalination plants for southern Iran, and constructing a strategic water transfer system to Zahedan in Sistan and Baluchestan.

It could also fund eight large wastewater treatment plants, dozens of mid-size facilities across the country, and modernize irrigation in Isfahan. Instead, those resources are being directed elsewhere. Now imagine how the country’s water infrastructure can be overhauled if the regime is gone and Iran is back on the path to growth and prosperity, with access to the latest technologies the world has to offer, to tackle this issue.

These figures are illustrative, not precise. They highlight both Iran’s potential capacity to invest in water infrastructure and the scale of resources currently misallocated, without even accounting for additional spending on missile programs, and nuclear development, which further underscores the magnitude of available resources.

Ultimately, the constraint is neither technical nor financial: it is political. As long as the current regime remains in power, resources that could stabilize and modernize Iran’s water systems will continue to be diverted toward non-productive ideological ends.

Tehran hails China’s support, but Beijing’s limits are showing

May 8, 2026, 02:42 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

Iranian media have welcomed Beijing’s unusually sharp rhetoric in support of Tehran, portraying recent Chinese diplomacy as evidence of a deepening strategic partnership.

Much of the coverage has focused on Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Beijing and his meetings with senior Chinese officials.

During the trip, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered some of Beijing’s strongest language to date on the conflict, condemning what he called “warmongering by the US and Israel” and warning that the region had reached a “decisive turning point.”

Iranian outlets quickly cast the remarks as evidence that China was moving closer to Tehran.

Economic daily Donya-ye-Eqtesad linked Beijing’s rhetoric to Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to China, arguing that the Chinese were trying to secure a de-escalation framework before the summit while resisting US pressure over the Strait of Hormuz.

Other Iranian analyses cited Chinese Communist Party journals describing the conflict as a costly strategic failure for Washington.

The Iranian economic site Tahlil Bazaar highlighted articles in Qiushi arguing that the war had damaged US credibility and increased economic pressure on Western countries through rising energy prices.

These narratives, amplified by Iranian media, emphasized Iran’s asymmetric tactics and their impact on global markets. But beneath the celebratory tone lies a more complicated reality: China sees Iran as a useful junior partner, not an ally worth sacrificing its broader economic interests for.

China’s messaging has not been uniformly supportive. Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed opposition to any action threatening shipping lanes or escalating regional instability.

Iranian media also quoted Beijing calling for a “complete and immediate ceasefire” after Iranian strikes on oil facilities in neighboring states.

That dual messaging—rhetorical support for Tehran combined with warnings against escalation—reflects China’s real priorities.

Beijing’s first concern is the Strait of Hormuz. Although China buys discounted Iranian oil, it depends far more heavily on energy imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

When Iran effectively closed the strait earlier this year, Chinese officials were reportedly alarmed by the resulting spike in energy prices and its potential impact on economic growth. For Beijing, disruptions in Hormuz are not ideological matters but direct threats to economic stability.

China’s second expectation is restraint. Despite the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” signed in 2021, Beijing has no interest in being dragged into a direct confrontation between Iran and the United States.

Since April, China has worked with Pakistan to facilitate temporary pauses in fighting, but Chinese officials have also made clear that Beijing will not fight on Iran’s behalf. Mediation, not military alignment, remains the limit of China’s commitment.

The third expectation is stability. China wants Iran strong enough to challenge US influence and remain a reliable sanctioned oil supplier, but not unstable enough to damage Beijing’s broader regional interests or require large-scale economic rescue.

Chinese analysts have increasingly warned that prolonged economic deterioration in Iran could complicate Beijing’s ties with Arab states across the Persian Gulf and undermine its long-term regional strategy.

This balancing act explains why China’s rhetoric has sharpened even as its limits have become clearer.

Beijing is willing to criticize the United States and Israel, support ceasefire diplomacy and pressure Washington politically. But it does not seem prepared to jeopardize its relationships in the region or Western markets to shield Iran from the consequences of a wider war.

Iran's war hawks dominate state TV as diplomacy inches forward

May 7, 2026, 03:37 GMT+1
•
Behrouz Turani

A former senior Iranian security official has criticized state television for amplifying hardline rhetoric that he warned could deepen social divisions at a sensitive moment for the country.

Mahmoud Mirlohi, a former deputy interior minister, said Iran’s state broadcaster has failed to reflect the diversity of Iranian society, instead operating as though the entire country shares the views of radical ultraconservative factions.

His remarks come as speculation intensifies over possible leadership changes at the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), whose chief, Payman Jebelli, is nearing the end of his five-year term.

Iranian media in recent weeks have floated several possible successors, including former IRIB deputy Ali Darabi and former state TV chief Ezatollah Zarghami—figures who, despite their roots in the system, are now often seen as more pragmatic and more responsive to public opinion.

The debate comes as signs of diplomatic progress between Tehran and Washington have fueled cautious optimism about a possible de-escalation after weeks of conflict. But mistrust between the two sides remains deep, and hardliners in both countries continue pushing rhetoric that risks undermining negotiations.

IRIB, which holds a monopoly over terrestrial radio and television and still exerts broad influence across Iran’s media landscape, has long faced accusations of functioning as a platform for the ultraconservative Paydari Party.

Under Jebelli, much of the broadcaster’s programming has been shaped by his deputy Vahid Jalili, brother of hardline politician Saeed Jalili. Both are associated with Paydari’s ideological camp.

Over the past week, IRIB has prominently featured commentators advocating confrontation both at home and abroad.

Some warned Iranians against protesting rising prices, while one guest called for the execution of former president Hassan Rouhani and former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Others attacked Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, exposing widening fractures even within conservative circles.

Several hardline figures also escalated rhetoric against the United Arab Emirates.

Paydari-aligned lawmakers Ali Khezrian and Alaeddin Boroujerdi called for the UAE’s destruction, with Khezrian threatening to “force the Emirates back to the age of camel riding.”

Mirlohi warned that such rhetoric undermines national cohesion at a time when authorities are attempting to project wartime unity.

Even Iranians attending nightly pro-government gatherings, he argued, do not necessarily share the ideological views promoted by state television.

He warned that treating those gatherings as proof of broad support for hardline ideology risked further alienating the public.

The criticism has not been limited to establishment insiders.

Reformist commentator Abbas Abdi wrote in Etemad Online that constant propaganda about Iran’s “victory” in the war rang hollow amid worsening economic conditions, arguing that genuine success would require stabilizing the country’s economy rather than relying on slogans.

Commentator Nasrin Zamiri wrote on the Asr Iran website that state television has failed to properly inform the public about the country’s real conditions and challenges.

She noted that no traditional or social media platform in Iran rivals IRIB’s reach, particularly in smaller towns and rural areas, making its editorial choices especially consequential.

The criticism reflects growing concern among even some establishment figures that IRIB’s increasingly ideological tone may alienate parts of the public at a moment when the state is trying to project national unity.

Hope and hostility collide in Tehran over possible deal with US

May 6, 2026, 22:29 GMT+1
•
Maryam Sinaiee

Signs of a possible breakthrough between Tehran and Washington have triggered sharply divergent reactions across Iran’s political and media landscape.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that a deal with Tehran “will happen” but insisted there was “never a deadline” for negotiations.

When asked whether a deal could come before his planned trip to China next week, he said “it’s possible,” while stressing that renewed strikes also remained on the table.

His comments came as Axios reported that the White House believes a one-page memorandum to end the war may be within reach, potentially laying the groundwork for broader nuclear talks and a possible agreement within 30 days.

Reacting cautiously, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said the US proposal remains under review and that Tehran’s response would be conveyed to Pakistani mediators once finalized.

According to Axios, Washington expects a reply within 48 hours.

The combination of Trump’s remarks and reports of a possible agreement had immediate economic effects inside Iran, with the value of foreign currencies and the cryptocurrency Tether falling sharply in Tehran markets.

Hardline rejection

Media outlets affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), however, pushed back strongly against suggestions that an agreement was imminent.

“Today’s propaganda by American media is about justifying Trump’s retreat from his recent hostile action,” Tasnim News wrote, citing an unnamed informed source. “Trump’s move was wrong from the beginning and should not have been taken.”

The source added that after Trump’s “retreat,” Iran had resumed reviewing the proposal and would announce its conclusion to mediators “whenever it reaches one.”

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for parliament’s national security committee, also dismissed the reports.

“What the Americans did not achieve in face-to-face negotiations, they will not obtain through a failed war,” he said. “Iran is ready, finger on the trigger… if they do not surrender and grant the necessary concessions… we will deliver a harsh and regret-inducing response.”

Diplomatic opening?

Despite the rhetoric, other voices portrayed the developments as a possible diplomatic opening.

The website Nour News, close to security institutions, described the suspension of the “Freedom Project” as evidence of a US “miscalculation” but added that it had “once again given value to the diplomacy card and strengthened the negotiation option to resolve the crisis.”

It also pointed to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent trip to Beijing as evidence that Iran had entered a new phase of diplomatic activity, with China emerging as a potential facilitator in the Hormuz crisis.

The outlet warned, however, that “given Trump’s impulsive decisions, the situation remains fragile.”

Even as negotiations continue, Tehran appears intent on reinforcing its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports indicate Iranian authorities have issued new instructions to shipping companies through a body referred to as the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority.”

The reported rules state that ships from countries that sanctioned Iran or froze Iranian assets could be denied passage. Violations may result in seizure and fines amounting to up to 20 percent of cargo value.

Journalist Mohammadreza Manafi wrote on X that Araghchi’s meeting with China’s foreign minister may have helped break the deadlock.

“It seems Araghchi will return to Tehran from the land of the dragon with ‘full hands’,” he wrote.

Analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi offered a more cautious analogy, comparing the negotiations to “the heart of a heart-attack patient being resuscitated in an operating room.”

“Fortunately, today this heart shows better vital signs than in previous days,” he wrote, “but there is no certainty about its condition tomorrow.”