Is Iran once again seeking Omani mediation with the US?

The decision of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) not to enforce the controversial law could not have been made without the approval of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has avoided discussing the issue in his speeches for months.

Enforcing the morality legislation—which imposes severe penalties, including heavy fines and prison sentences on women who violate strict hijab rules, as well as businesses that fail to comply—could be highly provocative under current conditions, potentially sparking widespread anti-government protests.

Internal clash over the enforcement of the hijab law

Mahmoud Nabavian, a senior member of the hardline Paydari (Steadfastness) Party and the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, is facing backlash from his allies after condemning recent protests led by radical elements. His remarks have surprised many within his faction, where he was long regarded as a key figure and a strict enforcer of their agenda.

Despite playing a key role in drafting the hijab legislation, Nabavian now argues that preserving the Islamic Republic must take precedence over enforcing the law—implicitly acknowledging the risk of unrest. “If implementing the hijab law creates tensions and weakens the system, it should automatically be set aside,” he said last week.

According to the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, preserving the system must take “utmost priority,” even if it requires temporarily setting aside religious obligations like prayer and fasting. By that logic, hijab would be no exception—a stance authorities now seem compelled to accept, much to the frustration of the hardline political and religious establishment.

Concerns over national stability

Nabavian justified the security council’s suspension of the hijab law by pointing to major geopolitical developments—the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. He argued that enforcing the law at this time could provide foreign adversaries with an opportunity to destabilize Iran.

“Given the country’s and the region’s current conditions, especially the situation in Yemen, and the need for national unity, we must all support the implementation of the law but polarizing the society, calling for illegal gatherings, and staging street protests—no matter the faction—are against the country’s interests,” Nabavian warned in an X post on Sunday. His remarks came after the US military launched massive airstrikes against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen on Saturday.

Hasan Soleimani, editor-in-chief of the hardline Mashregh News, a publication believed to be linked to the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization (SAS), defended Nabavian’s position. In an X post, he accused radical hardliners of using the hijab issue as a pretext to disrupt the country’s stability. He went further, comparing them to the Forqan group—an Islamist faction that carried out assassinations against officials of the newly established Islamic Republic, including a failed attempt on Khamenei’s life in 1981.

Highlighting defiance of Khamenei’s decisions

Nabavian also accused ultra-hardliners—whom he refers to as “super-revolutionaries” or “radicals”—of openly defying Khamenei, citing their opposition to Covid vaccination. “I won’t even mention the disgraceful remarks they made [about Khamenei’s own vaccination],” he said last week. He also linked their defiance to more recent criticism over Iran’s two-month delay in 2024 before retaliating against Israel’s attack on Iranian military facilities—a decision ultimately made by Khamenei.

Similarly, if Khamenei decides to permit direct talks with the Trump administration in the coming weeks or months, ultra-hardliners’ reaction could pose a significant challenge. He ruled out the possibility of such talks in a recent speech and has so far not acknowledged the US President’s letter to him. Former President Hassan Rouhani suggested a few days ago that Khamenei’s stance could change depending on circumstances, as it did in 2013 when he allowed secret talks with the US.

Warnings of a fragile political climate

Citing the hardliners' protests in Mashhad against moderate conservative Hassan Rouhani’s government on December 28, 2017, some media outlets and analysts have warned that demonstrations organized by “super-revolutionaries” could similarly spiral out of control.

The Mashhad protests quickly spread nationwide, with demonstrators in several cities chanting against Khamenei. The weeklong unrest resulted in at least 25 deaths and thousands of arrests.

However, the current situation is fundamentally different from 2017, an article in the reformist Etemad daily warned on Sunday. It pointed to Trump's presence in the White House and heightened regional tensions, citing a statement from the Supreme National Security Council Secretariat that cautioned any provocation or political polarization could cause irreparable damage to the country.

"We currently do not intend to release the contents of Trump's message to the media," said Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei during a press conference on Monday.

Last week, an Emirati official brought a letter from the US president proposing nuclear talks with Tehran, which Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected, saying such a proposal was deception from Washington amid crippling sanctions on Iran.

"Our response to this correspondence will be provided through appropriate channels after the completion of the reviews. What has been published in the media is mostly speculation and lacks a precise basis."

Baghaei noted that the letter's content "is not significantly different from Trump's speeches and is structured based on those elements."

The spokesman described US messages as contradictory signals, noting that while expressing readiness for talks, the US continues to impose sanctions.

He specifically criticized the US for sanctioning Iran's oil minister, whose "only crime is performing his official, legal, and national duties."

"Diplomatic negotiations have etiquette in that each side must recognize the other's interests and, more importantly, believe in fulfilling their commitments," he added during the televised press conference.

"The US does not respect that and uses the possibility of negotiations as a propaganda and political tool."

During his first term, President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement between Iran and major powers that limited Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Following the 2018 US withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions, Iran exceeded the JCPOA's nuclear activity limits.

Western powers express concern that Iran's uranium enrichment, reaching up to 60% purity, indicates a potential pursuit of nuclear weapons, an allegation Iran denies, asserting its program is for peaceful purposes and compliant with international law.

Baghaei also highlighted recent diplomatic activities, including a trip by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Oman on Sunday, a trilateral meeting in Beijing with Russia and China, and a visit by the Deputy for Legal and International Affairs to Vienna for talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

He stressed that Araghchi's Oman trip was unrelated to Trump's letter and had been scheduled beforehand.

In response to questions about US military strikes against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Baghaei condemned the attacks as a crime and a violation of international law.

"The US has unfortunately mistaken the victim for the criminal," he said, calling on the international community to take urgent action.

He also rejected US claims that Iran was behind the Houthi's blockade of commercial shipping in the Red Sea, saying the Yemeni people make their own decisions.

The denials came on the back of claims made on Sunday by Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami who categorically denied US accusations of Iranian control over the Houthis', in spite of the blockade being ordered by Iran's Supreme Leader in allegiance with Iran-backed Hamas amid the Gaza war, back in 2023.

"We have always declared, and we declare today, that the Yemenis are an independent and free nation in their own land and have an independent national policy," Salami said.

"Ansarullah, as the representative of the Yemenis, makes its own strategic decisions, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has no role in setting the national or operational policies of any movement in the resistance front, including Ansarullah in Yemen."

"Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. All options are on the table to ensure it does not have one," Michael Waltz told ABC News on Sunday.

"And that’s all aspects of Iran's program. That’s the missiles, the weaponization, the enrichment. They can either hand it over and give it up in a way that is verifiable, or they can face a whole series of other consequences," he warned.

In 2015, Iran signed a nuclear deal with the United States and other world powers that imposed restrictions on its uranium enrichment capacity but effectively allowed it to maintain its nuclear program. It also did not directly address Tehran's ballistic missile program, focusing instead on nuclear-related issues.

While Iran is now signaling a willingness to accept similar restrictions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, the Trump administration appears determined to put an end to Tehran's atomic ambitions.

The United Nations' nuclear watchdog warned on Saturday that the Islamic Republic is very close to developing a nuclear weapon.

"Iran has an extremely ambitious and extensive nuclear program, under which it is enriching uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels," Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.

Trump's national security advisor said on Sunday that "we cannot have a world with the ayatollahs with their finger on the nuclear button. And President Trump is determined (to prevent that), one way or another."

"Iran has been offered a way out of this to make sure that we don’t have a world that can be threatened by a radical regime," Waltz said, referring to Trump's direct letter to Iran's Supreme Leader.

Trump announced the overture at the same time he warned Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal or face military action.

While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has publicly ruled out talks, Iran’s foreign minister on Thursday signaled Tehran's willingness to engage in indirect negotiations with the United States through Oman.

On Sunday, Araghchi travelled to Muscat "to review bilateral and regional issues of mutual interest and concern."

"Our commitment is to diplomacy in defense of peace and stability, and I am always delighted to engage with my Omani counterpart in pursuit of these aims," he said, without explaining whether the issue of Omani mediation between Tehran and Washington had been discussed.

US may target Iranian assets in Red Sea

Araghchi's trip to Oman came hours after the US military started a series of large-scale airstrikes against Yemen's Houthis in what US officials described as a warning signal to their sponsors in Tehran.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Sunday the ongoing US airstrikes against Houthis serve as a warning to Iran to stop backing the group.

Washington would conduct "unrelenting" strikes against Yemen's Houthis until the Tehran-backed group ceases their military actions targeting US assets and global shipping, Hegseth told Fox News.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio also told CBS News that there was "no way" Yemen's Houthis would have the ability to attack global shipping without support from Iran.

In his Sunday interview with Fox News, Michael Waltz said the Trump administration "will hold not only the Houthis accountable, but we’re going to hold Iran, their backers, accountable as well.”

"And if that means they’re targeting ships that they have put in to – to help their Iranian trainers, IRGC and others, that intelligence, other things that they have put in to help the Houthis attack the global economy, those – those targets will be on the table too," he warned.

Iran allegedly operates reconnaissance ships in the Red Sea, including the commercial cargo ships Behshad and Saviz, which Washington says coordinate with the Houthis.

Despite scrutinizing their operations, neither the US nor Israeli militaries have targeted the ships.

He embraced this role both domestically—advocating for civil rights, gender equality, and press freedom—and in foreign policy, where he emphasized maintaining good relations with all countries and resolving Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West as a path to economic recovery.

However, on February 7, Pezeshkian abruptly shifted from a pragmatic politician to a staunch hardliner with strong ideological overtones following a routine anti-US and anti-negotiation speech by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Just weeks later, in an uncharacteristically heated tone, he went so far as to declare that he had no desire to engage with US President Donald Trump.

Whether Pezeshkian's "good cop" role was genuine or not, it may have served Khamenei’s interests at a time when he faced pressure to engage with the Trump administration. However, as Pezeshkian loses credibility among Reformists, hardliners remain hesitant to fully embrace him. His occasional expressions of regret—admitting shame over unfulfilled promises in domestic politics—have only deepened his political isolation.

The Supreme Leader has found a new "good cop" in Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was permitted to propose indirect negotiations with the United States in Muscat—despite Khamenei’s firm rejection of talks with Trump.

Recently, an Iranian commentator abroad half-jokingly categorized Iranian politicians into three groups based on their stance on nuclear negotiations with the United States. The first group consists of hardliners, led by ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, who oppose talks. The second includes moderates from centrist parties, such as former President Hassan Rouhani, who advocate for negotiations. The third group, he said, is led by President Pezeshkian—who, regardless of his stance, has no real influence over the nuclear issue.

Pezeshkian appears to lack clear solutions on other pressing issues as well. Addressing Iran’s soaring prices, he recently admitted, "I have no idea whom to blame for the uncontrolled rising prices." His remark drew sharp criticism on social media, where many reminded him that, as president, he is ultimately responsible for the government's handling of the crisis.

The Khabar Online website reported Friday that Pezeshkian has failed to deliver on four key promises, along with nearly all his other commitments. The report highlighted public dissatisfaction over continued social media censorship and his unresolved negotiations with hardliners on the strict compulsory hijab law. While enforcement has been temporarily suspended, the government has neither scrapped the bill nor convinced hardliners to stop harassing women and politicians.

The website also pointed to two major economic issues affecting Iranians' livelihoods that Pezeshkian has failed to address. He has been unable to persuade the Expediency Council to approve the FATF protocols, which could ease barriers to international trade and banking. More importantly, his promise to lift sanctions—seen as key to reviving the economy—remains unfulfilled. Now, he is not even willing to discuss the issue with the US, declaring, "Do whatever the hell you can do. I am not going to talk with you."

His critics—including ultraconservative Paydari Party members determined to unseat him, the so-called neocons aligned with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and hardline zealots who attack him at every turn for not enforcing strict Islamic hijab rules—are relentless in their pressure.

Pezeshkian’s vice president for legal affairs, Majid Ansari, blamed Paydari for the challenges the president is facing. "They have not shut down their campaigns and are still working to tarnish Pezeshkian's image," he told the media last week.

Pezeshkian is no longer the "good cop," yet no one sees him as the "bad cop" either. As one commentator put it on a Persian TV, perhaps he is no cop at all. Still, some Iranians believe in his good intentions. Despite his limited social backing, like the protagonist in the 1950s classic cartoon Deputy Dawg, he may have "a badge of tin," but he certainly has "a heart of gold."

In a phone call with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Masoud Pezeshkian expressed his satisfaction with the peace deal, emphasizing Iran's long-standing support for "peace, convergence, and stability in the region, especially among neighbors, while preserving the territorial integrity of countries," according to a statement from the Iranian presidency.

Pashinyan briefed Pezeshkian on the negotiation process. He also acknowledged the development and dynamism in bilateral relations with Iran under Pezeshkian's leadership, according to Iran’s state media.

However, the positive developments were overshadowed by renewed tensions on the ground. On Sunday, Azerbaijan's defense ministry accused Armenian forces of firing on Azerbaijani positions from Armenia's southern Syunik province, a claim Yerevan denied.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a decades-long dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, intensified after the Soviet Union's collapse. Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh by Armenians, is a mountainous region within Azerbaijan, internationally recognized as such, but until 2023, was predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians.

Despite the tensions, both Azerbaijan and Armenia announced on Thursday that they had agreed on the text of a peace agreement, marking a potential breakthrough in the decades-long conflict between the two South Caucasus nations.

Tehran has consistently emphasized its interest in maintaining stability along its northern 44-kilometer border, given the potential for regional conflicts to intersect with ethnic and religious tensions.