Academic Warns Iran’s Khamenei Of A Dangerous Collapse
A prominent Iranian economist in a letter meant to reach Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said that the Islamic Republic is in the final stage of its downfall.
A prominent Iranian economist in a letter meant to reach Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said that the Islamic Republic is in the final stage of its downfall.
Mohsen Renani, a professor at Isfahan University, says that he gave his paper to former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to hand it to Khamenei some two months ago, but after a while Zarif came back and said he was unable to deliver the letter to Khamenei. Renani decided to publish it on the social media platforms Telegram.
In the letter he argued that the downfall of any entity or political or social structure has four stages, and its collapse happens with the fourth stage. He further argued that the Islamic Republic is now at stage 4 and it is not quite clear for how long it can resist the collapse.
Furthermore, Renani warned that attempting to bring about a revolution from the top to avoid the downfall will add to the probability of a collapse.
According to Renani, the downfall of any institution or government has two dimensions and four stages which take place one after another: The first dimension, is the subjective downfall which includes the two stages of collapse of efficiency and collapse of competency. The second dimension, the objective downfall, consists of the two stages of collapse of symbols and collapse of structures.
Likening the society to a family, Renani said that the subjective collapse takes place when one or both sides are disappointed by the other and their emotional relationship collapses like an emotional divorce. But when the family really collapses, and a separation takes place there is an objective collapse or a legal divorce. Now the members of the family have realized that the father figure is not capable of solving the family's economic and social problems. Then his competency collapses.
Iran, according to Renani has left behind the first three stages and is now in the final stage, that is the collapse of its structures. He argued: "We all know that Iran will go through a stage of transition from the current impasse, but we need to make sure that the government will choose the least costly way of transition. It depends on the government to relive the experience of South Africa and Chile, or the ones that happened to Libya and Syria. Iran's national interests call for thinking of a violent revolutionary development is the very last choice."
He added: "I publish this text to tell the families who have suffered during the protests and their children that their movement has had a great achievement. I also wish to tell those inside the system who wish to take a closer realistic look at the situation that perhaps there is still time to save the country."
Renani warned that a revolution from the bottom is inevitable. It can be averted only if change starts from the top, if there is still time for that. The government should not be deceived by relative calm. Instead of suppressing and humiliating the new generation, the government should consider understanding and respecting it and holding a dialogue with it.
It is only in that case that bringing about a change in the structure can facilitate Iran's future development in a less costly way. However, at the current stage even a reform from the top may not be able to save the system as it has lost its all credibility. Nonetheless, it is the only thing that can be done at this stage if the system can restore its credibility among the people, Renani said.
"I know that publishing this paper may enrage the government or it may make angry those Iranians who think a violent regime change is the only solution for Iran's crisis, but as an intellectual it is my responsibility to warn both sides," Renani reiterated.
Earlier, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi had called for a regime change and former reformist President Mohammad Khatami said that reformists have no future in Iran although moving toward a regime change might lead to violence and chaos in Iran. The reform camp supported Khatami's view and some seventy politicians expressed their support for Mousavi's idea although he did not offer a roadmap for the next steps.
In Renani's model, following the decline of legitimacy and symbolism, i.e., when parents no longer maintain cordial relations with children, the structure of the system, here the family, also collapses and the family no longer live under the same roof. "The Islamic Republic, I believe, is standing on the threshold of this final stage," Renani maintained.
During his Friday prayer sermon, the outspoken Sunni leader continued to challenge the Islamic Republic and its ruler Ali Khamenei by demanding submission to the popular will, saying that an Islamic government must be democratic according to practices in the early years of Islam.
Pointing to the ongoing disagreement between a large part of the nation and the regime, he said the reasonable way out of this political impasse that would cause the least harm is the submission of the Islamic Republic to rule and the will of the people.
"The Islamic Republic regime was established in Iran 44 years ago and since the 1979 revolution, a particular reading and understanding of Islam has been prevalent in the country and it has been the same until now. But there is another understanding of Islam that we believe in, and that is the justice of Imam Ali,” referring to the fourth Caliph and the first Shiite Imam. “In this view, there is not only one ruler and a permanent government; the ruler should be determined by the people,” he added.
He added, "There is no death sentence in this reading of Islam. Forced confession is rejected and has no place. In this view, people can easily criticize their ruler and government. There is freedom.”
Women should enjoy equal rights as men, so do all ethnic groups, religions, and all human beings, Abdolhamid noted, adding that “The only solution to end the differences is accepting the will of the majority of the people.”
Elsewhere in his remarks, he criticized the regime’s plan to liquidate public assets and grant immunity to the seven-man team responsible for its implementation. Such properties belong to all the people, he underlined, adding that the "Iranian people have a bitter memory of privatization.” Previously, under the guise of privatization, public properties, factories and big companies were sold far below market price to people or organizations with connections and influence, he said.
Moreover, he once again demanded the release of "imprisoned religious leaders of various provinces, especially in provinces of Kordestan and Sistan-Baluchistan" as well as other political and ideological prisoners.
As is the new normal in Zahedan, where Abdolhamid leads the Friday prayers, people held demonstrations after they left the mosques on Friday and chanted slogans against the Islamic Republic and its ruler Ali Khamenei. Similar rallies were held in another city of the province, Khash.
However, over 1,300 kilometers north of Zahedan, in Golestan province where there are large Sunni Baluch and Turkmen communities, another Sunni Mowlavi (Imam), Mohammad-Hossein Gorgij, has reportedly been put under house arrest. People held a gathering outside the residence of Gorgij and expressed their support for him.
Also on Friday, the security situation was tense in several Kurdish cities, which are predominantly populated by Sunni people, such as Sanandaj in Kordestan province and Sardasht in West Azarbaijan. People were not allowed to visit their cities’ graveyards as the security forces are afraid that any gathering can morph into antigovernment protest rallies.
Three members of the group, Prince Reza Pahlavi, Masih Alinejad and Nazanin Boniadi are participating in the Munich Security Conference, while Iranian officials have not been invited.
On the sidelines of the conference Emmanuel Macron had a friendly encounter with women’s rights activist Masih Alinejad, one of the eight dissident figures.
During the short conversation, a video of which was published in Alinejad’s twitter account, Macron said that “I want to congratulate you and all the members of the coalition for joining and teaming up nicely to support.”
“To us and the civil society, what's happening in Iran is very important. And I'd be very happy to meet all of you, altogether because this message of unity is important,” he added.
Alinejad told Macron that leaders of leading countries are calling the current wave of antigovernment protests across Iran “a revolution,” adding that “France is all about revolution, and you're going to be the voice of Iranian women.”
Also on the sidelines of the first day of the Munich Security Conference, Prince Reza Pahlavi told reporters that “I think when you have a true democratic system, every demand or expectations that people living in that country will have would have to be addressed by the rule of law and guarantee of freedom and equality, and no discrimination of any form.”
He added, “I hope our Constitution in the future will be based on the Universal Declaration of Human Rights which by default would immediately address so many expectations and of course many more that we could address based on our alliance and work today on a Charter and hopefully build that into the equation in the future.”
The organizers of the annual forum, which draws together senior foreign and defense officials, have not invited the Iranian government to this year’s event, citing “the current political situation” in the country. Many Iranians residing in the city also held a gathering outside the venue of the event on Friday supporting the three leading figures at the conference. Protesters in Iran and opponents abroad see the decision to invite dissident leaders as a big victory for the protest movement that began in September after Mahsa Amini was killed in ‘hijab police’ custody.
During the three-day event, a panel will be held on Saturday titled “Woman, Life, Freedom: Visions for Iran,” in which Alinejad, Pahlavi and actress and activist Boniadi will participate. US Senator Robert Menendez, the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and Member of European Parliament Hannah Neumann are also among the panel. Suzanne Maloney from The Brookings Institution and Karim Sadjadpour from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace will be the moderators of the event.
Since a historic forum in Washington was held earlier this month with four of the eight opposition figures in attendance, and four others sending video messages, the dissident activists have been participating in events around the world to make the voice of the Iranian opposition heard. Such events signal the emergence of a leadership council in the diaspora to campaign for international support in favor of Iran’s protest movement.
Alinejad and Canada-based activist Hamed Esmaeilion, whose daughter and wife were killed in the shooting down of Flight PS752 downed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in 2020, are also scheduled to deliver speeches at the Italian Senate about the current wave of the protests in Iran. They are also set to attend a gathering against the Islamic Republic in the capital Rome the following day.
Mohsen Goudarzi and Abdolmohammad Kazemipour told Shargh newspaper: "We reviewed the data for several decades and we found out that with the decline of trust between the people and the government corruption will rise and the rule of law will take a downturn."
Goudarzi maintained that all this will lead to the government's inefficiency and more corruption which will in turn, further damage the people's trust in the government and other institutions.
He argued that this vicious circle will continue, and as the situation worsens, this is not something citizens can tolerate forever. When the people feel that there is no hope for change and no institutionalized way to bring about change, they will take to the streets.
As long as corruption and inefficiency and other shortcomings persist and cause dissatisfaction, and there is no institutionalized outlet for expressing dissent, protests are always probable.
Goudarzi explained that the government, the economy, and social structures are the main ingredients of a coherent society, but many political elites believe that after politics, the economy plays the most important part in the society. In several periods before and after the 1979 revolution, and even before the revolution, Iranian politicians have asked themselves whether economic development should come before political development or vice versa.
A 1969 document called "The Principles of Cultural Policy" and several other studies in the mid-70s about the future of Iran have all considered social crisis as the core problem for Iran. At that time, they referred to it as a cultural crisis. In the 1970s, sociologists believed that Iran's problem was that economic growth was prioritized over cultural and political growth.
The social scientists of the 1970s believed that a fast-paced economic change had altered the material aspects of the people's life. With the transition from traditional agricultural economy to modern industrial economy, large parts of the population migrated from the villages to the margins of urban areas, where they found themselves in an environment with different ideals and values.
Social scientists believed that the newcomers to the cities found themselves alien to the new environment. In order to escape the anxiety of this dislocation, they took refuge in the safe haven of traditions, particularly in religion, Goudarzi added. The transforming society pursued material values and looked forward to a modern future, but at the same time, people did not tolerate the resulting cultural changes.
Yet another problem was that while economic growth was creating a well-off middle class, doors to political participation remained closed. Sociologists Majid Tehranian, Ali Assadi and Hormoz Mehrdad in 1970s believed that focusing on the economy and ignoring its social and political implications by the Iranian government was the root cause of tensions. They believed that in that situation the society was not able to remain stable.
Time proved them right in a matter of only a few years. Since then, sociologists made sure that focusing on the economy without paying attention to people's political and social needs will lead to catastrophe. But ruling politicians in Iran, both then and now, thought that political participation could be relegated to the background. In their book, "What happened? The story of decline of Iranian society," Mohsen Goudarzi and Abdolmohammad Kazemipour have challenged this view. We have laid emphasis on the idea of balance, said Goudarzi.