Senior visiting fellow, George Mason University
Iran has announced another major gas discovery, but with the world’s second-largest reserves already beneath its soil, Tehran’s problem is not finding gas but finding the money and technology to extract it.
Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said the newly discovered field in southern Fars Province contains more than 7.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas in place, of which about 5.7 Tcf could be recoverable.
He compared the recoverable volume with roughly 15 years of production from one phase of South Pars.
The gas is also described as “sweet,” meaning its relatively low sulphur content could reduce processing and operating costs.
Yet the discovery adds to an already enormous resource base. Iran held about 1,200 Tcf of proved natural gas reserves at the end of 2023, second only to Russia, and produced about 9.4 Tcf that year.
Most of that gas is consumed domestically, while exports remain largely confined to regional pipeline trade.
Lack of investment
The headline figure also comes with an important caveat: gas in place is not the same as commercially recoverable reserves. Whether the estimated 5.7 Tcf can ultimately be produced economically will depend on reservoir performance, infrastructure, costs and access to investment.
That last constraint may prove particularly difficult.
Sanctions have restricted Iran’s access to international financing, foreign investment and Western energy companies and equipment suppliers, while Tehran is already confronting the costly task of sustaining production from its existing fields.
The scale of the challenge is visible at South Pars, Iran’s largest gas field. In March 2025, the National Iranian Oil Company signed contracts worth about $17 billion for pressure-boosting facilities needed to counter declining reservoir pressure.
Paknejad has also said Iran would require about $19 billion in annual investment to meet its broader gas-production targets over the following four years.
The new Fars field will therefore be competing for capital with the increasingly expensive task of maintaining production from fields Iran already depends on.
Technology gap
Iranian companies have developed considerable capabilities after years of sanctions forced domestic contractors to take over work previously carried out by international firms. But self-reliance has not eliminated dependence on foreign technology.
The South Pars pressure-boosting program, for example, requires 56 high-capacity turbo-compressors across seven hubs.
S&P Global reported that while most equipment was expected to be sourced domestically, foreign assistance and technology transfer would still be required for parts of the project.
South Pars Phase 11 demonstrated that vulnerability. TotalEnergies withdrew after Washington reimposed sanctions, and China National Petroleum Corporation subsequently left the project, forcing Iran to proceed through domestic companies without the advanced foreign technology originally envisaged.
Iranian firms can therefore develop significant parts of new gas projects, but financing constraints and gaps in specialized technology can increase costs and extend timelines, particularly when the same companies are expected to maintain mature fields, repair infrastructure and expand production simultaneously.
Can China fill the gap?
China is the most obvious candidate to provide some of what Iran lacks, but its role has limits.
Chinese independent refiners remain major buyers of sanctioned Iranian crude. Yet buying discounted oil through sanctions-resistant trading networks involves far less long-term exposure than committing billions of dollars to a multi-year gas development.
CNPC’s withdrawal from South Pars Phase 11 showed that major Chinese companies are also sensitive to sanctions, financing difficulties and access to international technology.
Recent US measures targeting Chinese independent refiners, vessels and financial channels involved in Iranian oil trade have increased those risks.
Smaller Chinese companies may continue supplying equipment and services, but they are unlikely by themselves to replace the financing, technology and project-management capabilities once provided by major international energy companies.
The Fars discovery therefore adds another potentially valuable asset to Iran’s extraordinary resource base. Its sweet gas and condensate content may improve the economics, and Iranian companies are more capable of developing such fields than they were a decade ago.
But Iran’s energy paradox remains: it can keep finding enormous quantities of hydrocarbons faster than it can find the investment and technology needed to turn them into reliable supply and export revenue.
More than 12,000 people also commented on the poll, with financial pressure, job insecurity, housing costs and concerns about children’s futures emerging repeatedly among the reasons given for putting off marriage or parenthood.
Some respondents said they wanted to marry or have children but lacked the financial or social conditions to do so. Others pointed to divorce and unsuccessful marriages as reasons for avoiding marriage.
Men accounted for 68% of respondents and women for 32%. The largest age group was 25 to 34, representing 40.3% of participants, followed by people aged 35 to 44 at 29.2%.
Respondents aged 18 to 24 made up 13.3%, while those aged 45 to 54 accounted for 9.8%.
Economic pressures weigh on family plans
Many respondents linked their reluctance to start families to the cost of everyday life, according to an examination of comments submitted with the poll.
Some wrote that meeting their own expenses had become difficult enough and that supporting a spouse or child was beyond their financial means. Others said they remained interested in marriage or parenthood but could not afford either.
Iran has faced years of high inflation and a steep decline in the value of its currency, eroding household purchasing power and making housing and other basic costs harder to meet.
The economic strain has been compounded by international sanctions and government policies at home and abroad, with their contribution to Iran’s economic problems a subject of continuing political debate.
Personal experiences of divorce and unsuccessful marriages also appeared repeatedly in the responses. Some participants described marriage under present conditions as a “high-risk decision.”
Others who were already married said they had decided against having children because of economic and social conditions. Respondents also cited mistrust and difficulty finding a suitable partner.
A smaller number expressed support for marriage or having children.
Parents question children's prospects
Concerns about the conditions in which children would grow up formed another major strand of the responses.
Some said they wanted children but were unwilling to bring them into a society where they feared they could face poverty, inflation, electricity shortages, insecurity and an uncertain future.
A number used much stronger language, describing having children under present circumstances as a “crime” or a “betrayal” of the child because parents could not guarantee an adequate quality of life or future.
Iran faces severe environmental challenges including air pollution, groundwater depletion, forest fires and wider ecosystem degradation. Experts have linked such problems to a combination of poor policymaking, weak environmental protections, corruption and insufficient resources.
Political outlook feeds pessimism
Some respondents connected their decisions directly to Iran’s political and social conditions and their expectations for the country’s future.
Years of economic hardship have coincided with repeated waves of anti-government protests and deadly crackdowns, alongside restrictions on political and social freedoms.
For some participants, those pressures appeared to have turned decisions about marriage and parenthood into a broader judgment about what kind of future is possible in Iran.
The scale and substance of the responses point to a question facing many of them: not simply whether they can afford to build families, but whether they see a future in which they want to do so.
The US dollar reached 2 million rials on Iran's open market, crossing a threshold it had approached rapidly in recent days.
“We saw revolution, war, sanctions, rising prices and hardship,” one person told Iran International. “Now that we are over 50, we worry about our children, their jobs, their future, education, university and marriage costs. Pressure from outside, pressure from inside. How much can one endure?”
The dollar stood at around 1.865 million rials at the beginning of last week, putting its rise at more than 7% in less than a week. It has more than doubled from around 958,000 rials during the same period last year.
The British pound climbed above 2.72 million rials, while the euro approached 2.34 million rials. Rates can vary between sources because open-market trading is informal and fragmented.
Iranians describe pressure from all sides
The currency's latest fall comes days after US President Donald Trump announced what he called the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country,” warning of unprecedented economic isolation and consequences for countries whose financial institutions, businesses or government entities continue providing Tehran with an economic lifeline.
“Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies – it all needs to stop NOW,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, calling on US allies to join the campaign.
Messages sent to Iran International in response to a question about US economic pressure largely focused on the burden borne by ordinary people rather than its effect on the Islamic Republic.
“Iran has been under sanctions for nearly 50 years and the Islamic Republic is still governing,” one person said. “These measures do not work. They only leave the Iranian people poorer and hungrier, without medicine, healthcare or housing.”
Others questioned whether greater economic pressure could force authorities to change course.
“I don't think the government will come under pressure because it covers its budget deficit from people's pockets,” another respondent said. “The tip of the sanctions spear is aimed directly at the people; healthcare, nutrition, education and sports are all at risk.”
Rial's decline compounds daily hardship
Market participants point to high inflation, growing demand for foreign currency, declining foreign-exchange revenues and concern over sanctions as factors driving demand for dollars.
Political uncertainty, disruption to regional oil exports and the deadlock between the Islamic Republic and the United States have added to inflation expectations.
The currency slide comes alongside electricity and water shortages that have disrupted production and daily life. Further rial depreciation can raise the cost of imported raw materials and essential goods, adding to pressure on household budgets.
Some Iranians who contacted Iran International argued that economic pressure would be more effective if directed at assets held abroad by officials and their relatives.
“When they can freeze the foreign accounts of officials and their children, then you can call it pressure on the government,” one respondent said. “Seize their assets.”
