New data highlights a persistent decline in Iran's marriage rates since 2011, exposing the ineffectiveness of the Supreme Leader’s prolonged efforts to boost population growth amid deteriorating economic conditions.
The latest findings from the state-run National Population Research Institute suggest that the average age of marriage for women has reached 24, while men are marrying at around 28 years old.
According to the head of the Institute, Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi, the number of registered marriages in Iran has dropped dramatically since 2011,with almost half a million marriages registered – a fall from the peak of 891,627 marriages in 2010.
This downward trend has persisted despite repeated calls from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for policies to facilitate marriage and boost population growth.
The figures also suggest that the trend kickstarted the year international sanctions tightened their grip on the Iranian economy in 2011. At the end of that year, the US blocked oil importers from making payments through Iran's central bank and imposed measures that restricted Iran's access to foreign currencies. These sanctions were a response to Iran's defiance of international norms on nuclear weapons development, aiming to limit its nuclear proliferation potential and enforce global demands for transparency and accountability.
The figures also reveal that before the downward trend, there was a dramatic rise in the number of marriages in Iran with registrations soaring nearly ninefold from 152,411 to 891,627 between 1966 to 2010. This surge represents the highest recorded marriage rate in over fifty years.
Khamenei’s rhetoric on population growth has been matched by a series of laws and regulations designed to encourage young Iranians to marry and have children. However, these initiatives are being undermined by significant economic challenges, including the impacts of international sanctions that have made it increasingly difficult for many young Iranians to afford the costs of starting a family.
Iran observers often highlight that the country’s economic struggles are largely a consequence of sanctions imposed due to its support for regional terrorism and severe human rights abuses. The US and EU have targeted Iran for backing militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as for its widespread suppression of political dissent and activism.
The decline in marriage rates also reflects a broader demographic shift in Iran. Over the past 57 years, the average age at which women first marry has risen by approximately five and a half years, while for men, it has increased by about three and a half years.
This delay in marriage, coupled with economic uncertainty, has also led to a decline in birth rates. In the first nine months of 2023, Iran experienced the lowest number of births in the past decade, intensifying worries about the country’s future population growth. Abortion rates have also been on the rise in recent years.
Mahmoudi also warned that the number of women of reproductive age will sharply decline after 2029. This is due to the government’s failure to capitalize on the peak reproductive years between 2010 and 2022. "We have not yet optimally utilized the 12-year period between 2010 and 2022, during which we had a peak in the number of women of reproductive age," Mahmoudi admitted.
These demographic challenges emerge as Khamenei has once again instructed government officials to eliminate barriers to population growth. On September 3, Health Minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi announced that discussions had been held on population growth policies and that experts were tasked with addressing these issues.
The Rejuvenation of the Population and Protection of the Family (RPPF) law, enacted by the Iranian Parliament in 2021 under Khamenei’s directive, has yet to produce significant results. While the law imposes penalties for actions against childbearing and marriage, economic pressures on young Iranians continue to outweigh these measures.
In a recent effort to tackle the population decline, the Central Bank of Iran announced on September 1 that it will allocate 500 trillion rials (over $830 million) from bank deposits for marriage and childbearing loans. An investigation by Iran International, however, revealed that this funding will fall short of meeting the actual demand for these loans.
This underscores the inadequacy of the government's measures and its failure to address the crisis effectively. Despite the large financial commitment, the government's approach is criticized for not sufficiently addressing the needs of young Iranians and failing to mitigate the broader economic pressures contributing to the decline in marriage rates and birth rates.
Iran's population growth rate has thus sharply declined to 0.6 percent, down from 1.23% just two years ago and a significant drop from the 4.21% rate seen in 1984.
Despite this, the Supreme Leader appears bent on boosting the population to 150 million by 2050. The relentless pursuit of demographic growth, frequently at the expense of individual rights and well-being, according to many observers, highlights the Islamic Republic’s disregard for the health and rights of its citizens, especially women and children, in favor of ideological ambitions.
The group is focused on advocating for policies they believe will strengthen US national security and promote a tougher stance toward the government of Iran.
During his administration, Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, was characterized by a strong opposition to Iran. His administration withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2019, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, and imposed strict sanctions against Iran.
Iranians for Trump supports these policies, viewing them as critical measures to counter Iran’s influence. The organization emphasizes Trump’s previous administration’s role in addressing issues related to Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism and its regional destabilizing activities, which the group argues threaten global security.
“While the Biden-Harris administration has struggled to effectively confront the threats posed by Iran’s regime, President Trump’s leadership is marked by unwavering commitment to safeguarding American national security and supporting the Iranian people in their struggle for freedom,” said Nasim Behrouz, Persian-language spokesperson for Iranians for Trump.
Iranians for Trump will focus on voter registration and advocacy to ensure that the Iranian-American community’s concerns, particularly regarding US foreign policy toward Iran, are considered by political leaders.
Sarah Raviani, the English-language spokesperson for the group, signaling the group' activism also in Congressional races added, “Our mission is to mobilize Iranian-American voters to support leaders who prioritize policies that protect US national security and promote democratic values both at home and abroad.”
According to figures from Iran’s High Council of Iranian Affairs Abroad in 2020, 47% of the Iranian diaspora (1,905,813 people) live in the Americas, with an estimated 1,500,000 living in the United States.
Meanwhile, according to data from the Migration Policy Institute citing tabulations from the US Census Bureau 2019 American Community Survey (ACS), the Iranian diaspora in the United States comprises more than 577,000 individuals born in Iran or reported Iranian ancestry.
Even considering the US Census Bureau, Iranian-American voters, have the potential to play a role in the November elections. While many Iran-Americans live in states like California and Texas, smaller but notable populations exist in swing states such as Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and Nevada.
Abbas Araghchi, the new foreign minister approved by Khamenei, was one of the original negotiators in the Iran deal talks. He has chosen as his deputy another member of that negotiating team, Majid Takht-Ravanchi. Both men possess the experience and skills to resolve technical issues related to a potential deal. The problem is that their loyalty to the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) is absolute. They believe in the 'principles' of the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, chief among them, focus on the Axis of Resistance.
Araghchi, compared to Javad Zarif, has fewer differences with hardliners and stands somewhere between Zarif and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s former foreign minister who was killed along with President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. So far, Araghchi’s public statements have been in line with the agenda set out by Pezeshkian in an open letter he wrote shortly after his election. There is very little to separate this new agenda and that of Raisi’s, apart from a softer tone.
Pezeshkian did speak about the need for sanctions removal and the normalization of relations with the world during his campaign. Since assuming office, however, he has shifted toward blaming the US for imposing "unjust sanctions" and defending the expansion of strategic ties with Russia and China. This shift negatively impacts his administration’s ability to open a new chapter in the longstanding conflict. The biggest obstacle is, of course, Khamenei, who determines foreign policy. Without a change in his stance, it’s difficult to see a different outcome from the failure of the two previous administrations to revive the Iran deal.
Although Araghchi has retreated from his initial stance on the irrelevance of the JCPOA and the need for a new agreement, this shift reveals a stark reality: the JCPOA, due to the broken commitments of both the US and Iran, no longer exists—it is effectively dead. According to the most recent report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has added cascades of centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment sites in Natanz and Fordow. Even the IAEA chief has suggested that the JCPOA may have expired.
Iran has significantly reduced the breakout time to just a few months by gradually advancing its uranium enrichment levels and increasing its stockpile over the past six years. It now claims the capability to make atomic bombs, though Khamenei's religious order (Fatwa) supposedly prevents them from doing so. However, it seems their ultimate goal is to use their advanced nuclear program as leverage to pressure the US and EU into reviving the JCPOA or forging a new agreement without substantial changes or additional demands.
Any agreement would be a tall order since the conditions now are far less favorable than 2015, when the nuclear deal was announced. The areas of conflict have expanded after the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Now, a stronger deal is needed to mitigate instability in the region and the world. And Iran is known to be quite hostile to any suggestion of additional demands.
It is worth noting that the Biden administration initially pushed for a new JCPOA. Iranian leaders may not be opposed to the idea in principle, but the gap between the two sides seems too big to bridge. Iran under Pezeshkian will continue its support for armed groups in the region while managing the scope and scale of its tensions with US and Israel. This policy is inherently problematic and may be unsustainable. At best, it could lead to a temporary reduction in tensions.
The Biden administration has so far shown little enthusiasm for engaging with Iran’s new administration. The upcoming US election could be the main reason for both sides’ caution. A Trump victory would likely complicate Pezeshkian’s position. It could mean further escalation of tensions even. It’s not impossible that Trump may seek a stronger deal eventually, humiliating Iran along the way. A Kamala Harris win would therefore look like the more favorable outcome for Iran. But the fundamental issues and obstacles will persist whoever the president.
Another factor complicating the potential for a new agreement is the growing military cooperation between Iran and Russia. If Iran sends Russia ballistic missiles, as reported recently, tensions could reach new heights, given NATO's repeated warnings to Iran. It’s not impossible that Germany, Britain, and France would seek snapback sanctions—a provision in the JCPOA to reimpose suspended UN resolutions against Iran and essentially dismantle the JCPOA. That would be catastrophic for Pezeshkian who taunted his hardline rival for ruining the chances of a JCPOA revival.
An optimistic scenario hinges on new calculations within Khamenei’s court, which could lead to renewed negotiations with the US over the nuclear issue and ultimately result in a new agreement with controlled setbacks—yet another Heroic Flexibility, as Khamenei named his previous retreat. This scenario could be complicated too. China’s purchase of Iranian oil at reduced prices has weakened US leverage and the effectiveness of sanctions. Europe, on the other hand, wants to contain Russia and manage the oil market, which might require offering concessions to Iran to reduce its military aid to Russia.
It is too early to predict where Iran is headed under Pezeshkian. It can be said with some confidence, however, that a strategic change in Iran’s foreign policy is unlikely. Any change would most likely be tactical or symbolic. A scenario somewhere between the two outlined here could also emerge, potentially allowing for an interim agreement that initially breaks the current deadlock by having the US lift some sanctions in exchange for Iran halting some of its nuclear activities that violate the JCPOA framework.
For now, due to increased tensions amid the Gaza war, confrontation continues, with the US enforcing and expanding unilateral sanctions while Iranian proxies attack American military and diplomatic centers in Iraq. Barring a near miraculous turn of events, there will be no easing of tensions in the months to come.