US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Baghdad to swiftly disarm Iran-backed militias in a phone call with Iraq's prime minister on Tuesday, accusing the Shi'ite groups of diverting the Arab nation’s resources to Tehran’s benefit.
In his phone call Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Rubio "highlighted the urgency in disarming Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty, threaten the lives and businesses of Americans and Iraqis, and pilfer Iraqi resources for Iran," according to a state department press release.
"The Secretary reiterated the US commitment to working closely with Iraqi partners to advance our shared interests: safeguarding Iraqi sovereignty, bolstering regional stability, and strengthening our economic ties," the state department added.
American officials have issued several private warnings to the Iraqi government since January over the Tehran-backed armed militants, telling Baghdad it could target the groups with airstrikes unless it acted to disband the militias operating on its soil.
The militia commanders, from groups including Kata'ib Hezbollah and Nujaba, were quoted by Reuters in April as saying their main ally, Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), had given them its blessing to avoid a conflict with the US and Israel.
"Trump is ready to take the war with us to worse levels, we know that, and we want to avoid such a bad scenario," Reuters reported at the time citing a commander of Kata'ib Hezbollah, the most powerful Shi'ite militia.
However, Iraqi politician Muthal al-Alusi denied the report, calling the claims a nominal effort to protect involved politicians. He told Iran International on April 7 that "in practice, the real militias have received advanced weapons, and their participation on the battlefield may be completely evident."
The militias form part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group claiming responsibility for numerous attacks on Israel and US forces during the Gaza war.
The developments come as Iraq seeks to strike a balance in its relations with neighbor Iran and superpower the United States, with the militias having grown significantly since the 2003 US invasion.
Washington had warned Baghdad against revenge attacks by these groups after recent strikes on the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen.
The current state of China–Iran relations is unusually difficult to assess. Both governments continue to affirm their “strategic partnership,” but beyond the rhetoric the reality is less clear.
On paper, the two countries are bound by a 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021, covering trade, infrastructure, energy and security.
Yet China has remained notably cautious during Iran’s recent crises. Despite being Tehran’s largest oil customer and a key diplomatic partner, Beijing largely stayed on the sidelines as Israeli strikes hit Iranian territory.
In practice, the partnership operates within strict limits. While Sino-Iranian economic relations have been stagnating, China’s ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies have expanded dramatically.
Expectations meet caution
During the 12-day confrontation with Israel, some Chinese analysts urged a more proactive role—mediation, public condemnation of Israeli strikes or closer military cooperation.
But Beijing did little, triggering accusations in Tehran that it failed to grasp the Islamic Republic’s strategic value in its rivalry with the United States.
China should have done more, many asserted, rarely elaborating on what that more could look like.
Direct military or political backing, however, would have risked confrontation with Washington and jeopardized China’s broader regional network.
Oil as quiet support
Where China’s support has been most tangible is in energy trade. The world's top importer of oil is Iran's main, almost sole, customer.
Despite sanctions, imports of Iranian crude have continued to grow in 2025, with tankers often re-flagged or disguised to evade detection. This provides Tehran with a crucial lifeline.
For Beijing, the motive is less political than practical: discounted Iranian oil fits its strategy of stockpiling reserves and securing cheap energy while global prices remain low.
Dependence by default
With UN sanctions back in force, Iran faces renewed isolation from global finance, trade, and technology. That leaves Tehran even more dependent on a handful of partners—above all, China.
A recent review of Iranian media published by the ChinaMed Project confirms this.Iran’s leaders—or at least parts of the elite—prize strategic autonomy and resent reliance on any single power, yet options are scarce.
Russia, itself sanctioned and weakened, offers little beyond rhetoric. China, by contrast, provides trade, energy purchases, and a degree of diplomatic cover, making it Iran’s indispensable partner whether Tehran likes it or not.
The trajectory of Iran-Saudi relations will be decisive. If détente holds, Tehran may find limited room to maneuver; if it collapses, dependence on Beijing will only deepen.
Looking ahead
The return of UN sanctions on Iran coincides with Donald Trump’s unveiling of a new peace plan.
Beijing’s official line is that it “welcomes all efforts” toward peace based on a two-state solution. Chinese experts, however, are skeptical, arguing that peace will be impossible without recognizing Palestinian statehood—a position long enshrined in Chinese diplomacy.
Many Chinese commentators also see Trump’s plan as a US bid to reassert dominance, protect Israel’s interests, and strengthen Arab-Israeli ties.
Beijing opposes none of these in principle, but grows wary when they appear designed to isolate Tehran further, potentially undermining China’s own mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Beijing’s challenge is to sustain its balancing act: maintaining economic ties with Tehran, preserving partnerships with Iran’s Arab neighbors, and avoiding direct confrontation with Washington.
For Tehran, choices are narrowing. The more isolated it becomes, the more it must rely on China, even if that means accepting a subordinate position in the relationship.
China’s support for Iran remains significant but measured, rooted more in calculation than ideology. As sanctions bite and isolation deepens, Beijing’s role may grow—but within limits that protect China’s own interests above all.
“If any aggression is committed against Iran, our response will be stronger than the 12-day war and we will turn the region into hell for the enemy,” Pakpour said, quoted by state broadcaster IRIB.
He added that Iran’s missile systems had performed with “power and precision” during the June war with Israel.
Pakpour made the remarks during a meeting in Tehran with Iraq’s National Security Adviser Qasim al-Araji.
According to Iranian state media, Al-Araji emphasized Iraq’s commitment to security cooperation with Iran and saying his country would not allow its territory to be used for hostile acts against Tehran.
Iran’s top military officials have repeatedly warned they are monitoring regional adversaries and will respond forcefully if provoked.
Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi said on Monday that Tehran was not seeking war but would deliver a completely different response if attacked.
An Iranian lawmaker also warned on Tuesday that Iran would destroy enemy bases in the region if attacked.
“If the enemy is not attacking now, it is because it cannot,” Esmaeil Siavoshi said on Tuesday, according to state media. “It knows that if it attacks, we will destroy all its bases in the Persian Gulf.”
Pakpour said cooperation between Iran and Iraq was essential to prevent foreign interference and to ensure border security, adding that both countries had agreed to strengthen coordination through a joint field committee.
