Lecturer in International Relations, University of Exeter
The return of UN sanctions has deepened Tehran’s isolation and tested Beijing’s pragmatic balancing act in a region shaken by Donald Trump’s new peace plan and the 12-day war between Iran and Israel.
The current state of China–Iran relations is unusually difficult to assess. Both governments continue to affirm their “strategic partnership,” but beyond the rhetoric the reality is less clear.
On paper, the two countries are bound by a 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021, covering trade, infrastructure, energy and security.
Yet China has remained notably cautious during Iran’s recent crises. Despite being Tehran’s largest oil customer and a key diplomatic partner, Beijing largely stayed on the sidelines as Israeli strikes hit Iranian territory.
In practice, the partnership operates within strict limits. While Sino-Iranian economic relations have been stagnating, China’s ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies have expanded dramatically.
Expectations meet caution
During the 12-day confrontation with Israel, some Chinese analysts urged a more proactive role—mediation, public condemnation of Israeli strikes or closer military cooperation.
But Beijing did little, triggering accusations in Tehran that it failed to grasp the Islamic Republic’s strategic value in its rivalry with the United States.
China should have done more, many asserted, rarely elaborating on what that more could look like.
Direct military or political backing, however, would have risked confrontation with Washington and jeopardized China’s broader regional network.
Oil as quiet support
Where China’s support has been most tangible is in energy trade. The world's top importer of oil is Iran's main, almost sole, customer.
Despite sanctions, imports of Iranian crude have continued to grow in 2025, with tankers often re-flagged or disguised to evade detection. This provides Tehran with a crucial lifeline.
For Beijing, the motive is less political than practical: discounted Iranian oil fits its strategy of stockpiling reserves and securing cheap energy while global prices remain low.
Dependence by default
With UN sanctions back in force, Iran faces renewed isolation from global finance, trade, and technology. That leaves Tehran even more dependent on a handful of partners—above all, China.
A recent review of Iranian media published by the ChinaMed Project confirms this.Iran’s leaders—or at least parts of the elite—prize strategic autonomy and resent reliance on any single power, yet options are scarce.
Russia, itself sanctioned and weakened, offers little beyond rhetoric. China, by contrast, provides trade, energy purchases, and a degree of diplomatic cover, making it Iran’s indispensable partner whether Tehran likes it or not.
The trajectory of Iran-Saudi relations will be decisive. If détente holds, Tehran may find limited room to maneuver; if it collapses, dependence on Beijing will only deepen.
Looking ahead
The return of UN sanctions on Iran coincides with Donald Trump’s unveiling of a new peace plan.
Beijing’s official line is that it “welcomes all efforts” toward peace based on a two-state solution. Chinese experts, however, are skeptical, arguing that peace will be impossible without recognizing Palestinian statehood—a position long enshrined in Chinese diplomacy.
Many Chinese commentators also see Trump’s plan as a US bid to reassert dominance, protect Israel’s interests, and strengthen Arab-Israeli ties.
Beijing opposes none of these in principle, but grows wary when they appear designed to isolate Tehran further, potentially undermining China’s own mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Beijing’s challenge is to sustain its balancing act: maintaining economic ties with Tehran, preserving partnerships with Iran’s Arab neighbors, and avoiding direct confrontation with Washington.
For Tehran, choices are narrowing. The more isolated it becomes, the more it must rely on China, even if that means accepting a subordinate position in the relationship.
China’s support for Iran remains significant but measured, rooted more in calculation than ideology. As sanctions bite and isolation deepens, Beijing’s role may grow—but within limits that protect China’s own interests above all.
“If any aggression is committed against Iran, our response will be stronger than the 12-day war and we will turn the region into hell for the enemy,” Pakpour said, quoted by state broadcaster IRIB.
He added that Iran’s missile systems had performed with “power and precision” during the June war with Israel.
Pakpour made the remarks during a meeting in Tehran with Iraq’s National Security Adviser Qasim al-Araji.
According to Iranian state media, Al-Araji emphasized Iraq’s commitment to security cooperation with Iran and saying his country would not allow its territory to be used for hostile acts against Tehran.
Iran’s top military officials have repeatedly warned they are monitoring regional adversaries and will respond forcefully if provoked.
Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi said on Monday that Tehran was not seeking war but would deliver a completely different response if attacked.
An Iranian lawmaker also warned on Tuesday that Iran would destroy enemy bases in the region if attacked.
“If the enemy is not attacking now, it is because it cannot,” Esmaeil Siavoshi said on Tuesday, according to state media. “It knows that if it attacks, we will destroy all its bases in the Persian Gulf.”
Pakpour said cooperation between Iran and Iraq was essential to prevent foreign interference and to ensure border security, adding that both countries had agreed to strengthen coordination through a joint field committee.
“The foreign minister announced that Ms. Esfandiari was placed in the exchange framework, and we have prepared a political and consular package that both countries must carry out,” Jalalzadeh said.
“We hope this will happen soon and that we will see Ms. Esfandiari back in our beloved country.”
Jalalzadeh said Iran had pursued legal and consular measures in Esfandiari’s case, including appointing a lawyer and holding ten consular meetings since her detention.
He accused France of holding her over “support for the Palestinian people,” saying her case was politically motivated.
Esfandiari, a student in Lyon, was arrested earlier this year over social media posts that prosecutors said violated counterterrorism laws.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei also said on Monday that Iran was seriously pursuing the issue of detainees with France and that “both sides have the necessary will to resolve it,” according to state media.
Similar remarks were made in September, when Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television that talks on a prisoner swap with France were “in their final stages.”
The comments came amid continuing diplomatic friction between Tehran and Paris over detained nationals in both countries.
France last week condemned lengthy prison sentences handed to citizens Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, who were convicted in Iran of espionage. French officials called the charges baseless and their detention arbitrary.
Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said there were “strong prospects” for bringing the two home following a meeting last month between President Emmanuel Macron and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York.
Iranian officials have suggested that Esfandiari’s case could be part of a broader dialogue with France on consular matters, but no timetable has been announced.