Iran deploys Revolutionary Guards at state broadcaster after Israeli strike

After the quietest night since Iran began its retaliatory attacks on Israel on Friday, the former head of the Iranian strategic desk in Israeli Defense Intelligence, a branch of the Israeli military, told Iran International that Tehran’s missile stocks are running low.

Danny Citrinowicz, who now heads the Iran and Shia axis program at the Institute of National Security Studies, said that at the beginning of the war, intelligence estimates showed Iran had around 2,000 missiles.

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Tabriz missile base

Storage buildings at Tabriz missile base

Tunnel opening at Tabriz missile base

Vehicle tunnel openings at Tabriz missile base

Storage buildings at Tabriz missile base

Aircraft at Mashhad airport

Here's a brief summary of major developments as the conflict entered its fifth day.

Trump's remarks on a US role

• Trump said the US and Israel had total control of Iran's skies.
• Trump called for Iran's unconditional surrender.
• Trump said the US knows where Iran's Supreme Leader is hiding but would not kill him for now.
• Trump said the US does not want missiles shot at civilians or US troops.
• Trump said the US patience was wearing thin.

Israel steps up attacks

• Israel ordered a Tehran district home to hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate.
• A huge explosion sent a mushroom cloud rising over eastern Tehran after Israeli airstrikes targeted the IRGC-affiliated Imam Hossein University as well as Khojir missile production complex.
• Multiple missile sites were struck in Isfahan, Israel said.
• Explosions and air defense activity were reported in Tehran, Karaj and Shiraz.
• Israel's military said 60 Israeli Air Force jets launched a major wave of strikes targeting Iranian missile launchers in the heart of Iran.
• Israeli attacks have so far killed 585 people and injured 1,326 in Iran, the human rights group HRANA reported.

Military ramp-up

• US warplanes departed a military base in England on Tuesday, the BBC reported.
• The United States is deploying additional fighter aircraft to the Middle East, Reuters reported.
• The US buildup includes F-22, F-16, and F-35 jets, one official said.
• Abdolrahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces called for the evacuation of Haifa and Tel Aviv after Israeli evacuation warnings for Tehran.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guards' Aerospace Force targeted Israeli air bases.

Leaders weigh in

• French President Emmanuel Macron said any push to overthrow Iran’s government would bring chaos to the region.
• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he hoped for a de-escalation.
• Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz praised Israel and said the outcome of the crisis was up to Tehran.
• Iran’s exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi, an opposition leader, urged a nationwide uprising.

US President Donald Trump had left the summit early to address the crisis but not before signing off to a relatively diplomatic joint statement that backed Israel's right to self-defense and criticized Iran but mooted a resolution.

"We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East," the wealthy democracies said.

But Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric on Tuesday, noting "we" - Israel and the United States - had gained control of Iran's air space, suggesting Iran's Supreme Leader could be easily killed and demanding "unconditional surrender" in social media posts.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned harshly against seeking to topple Tehran's ruling theocratic system by first, citing cautionary tales in recent Mideast history.

"The biggest error would be to use military strikes to change the regime because it would then be chaos,” Macron said.

“Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003 was a good idea? Does anyone think that what was done in Libya the next decade was a good idea? No!” he added.

“We don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. But our responsibility is to return discussions as quickly as possible.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pushed back against suggestions that US President Donald Trump is planning imminent military intervention in Iran, following Trump’s calls on Monday for the evacuation of Tehran’s 10 million residents and his late-night convening of the US National Security Council in the White House Situation Room.

“There is nothing the president said that suggests he’s about to get involved in this conflict,” Starmer told reporters, adding that there was “no doubt in my mind” based on his dinner discussion with Trump on Monday that he sought de-escalation.

"I'm no supporter of the regime in Iran," told the BBC. Asked if he would support a popular uprising, the prime minister demurred.

"Look, it's not for me as the UK prime minister to start, you know, encouraging people in relation to what they might do at home. My absolute focus is on the need to deescalate this."

Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz offered a more hedged view, praising Israel for doing "the dirty work" by confronting Iran, also a Western foe.

Israel, he added, likely could not destroy Iran’s fortified nuclear facility at Fordow without US firepower. “The Israeli army is obviously unable to accomplish that. It lacks the necessary weapons. But the Americans have them,” Merz told broadcaster ZDF.

On the possibility of the United States joining the fight, Merz said, “we have talked about this.” That decision, he added, depends on whether the Iranian regime “is prepared to return” to the negotiating table.

Danny Citrinowicz, who now heads the Iran and Shia axis program at the Institute of National Security Studies, said that at the beginning of the war, intelligence estimates showed Iran had around 2,000 missiles.

But as Israel pounds both launchers and production facilities, Iran is unable to regroup in time to retaliate to Israel’s ongoing attacks, he said.

“Iran is having a real problem to produce large salvos. They are calculating now in terms of what’s left, and they still have supplies but they know it’s going to be a lengthy war.”

After several consecutive nights of bombardment that have destroyed numerous homes and resulted in 24 deaths, Monday was a quiet night.

A missile strike hit a factory and bus station north of Tel Aviv in the only reported case of an impact.

According to Israeli military, since the start of the military campaign, fewer than 400 missiles and hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles have been launched, causing approximately 35 impacts.

More than 647 people have been injured—with 10 seriously and 37 moderately—and nearly 19,000 damage claims have been filed, mostly for buildings. Additionally, 2,725 people have been evacuated from their homes.

Key commander killed

“With the air superiority of Israel and the assassination of the head of the missile program in the first surprise attacks, he will be hard to replace,” Citrinowicz said, referring to the death of Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the former commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces.

“He headed last year’s April and October attacks on Israel and had so much knowledge and experience, and the trust of the top leadership, so while he was replaced, it would not be by someone like him with his caliber and expertise, and it’s taking a toll.”

Israel estimates 1,200 missiles left

Israeli estimates are that there are around 1,200 missiles left. “Iran can still have a war of attrition but they’ll have to calculate that. It will be very hard to launch 100-200 missiles at one time. They are under the superiority of Israel and can’t use a lot of launchers as Israel will hit them, and they are also launching in hiding,” added Citrinowicz.

“Israel has also hit the production hard. So what they started with, that’s what they have until the end of the war. Iran couldn’t have imagined such a thing would happen.”

“In the first blow, Iran’s senior leaders were at home. They didn’t see that coming and were very amateur. Iran is a one trick pony in terms of missiles. When Israel is really attacking facilities, it’s very hard for Iran to produce something dramatic and produce something to force Israel to stop the war.”

A Western intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Iran International that Iran's vulnerabilities are now on display.

"Iran’s capability is a paper tiger. This is why they created their network of proxies and why the regime so desperately want nuclear weapons," the official said.

"They are no match for Israel’s military firepower and defensive strength and Iran right now cannot risk dragging the US into war, so it will not attack US forces or facilities in the region," the source added.