Can Trump crack Iran's negotiating playbook?

The Iraqi port is now being used to move some Iran-bound cargo, including cars, after shipments are first transferred from ports in the United Arab Emirates on vessels flying non-Iranian flags, sources with knowledge of the matter Iran International.

The shift adds a new layer to Iran’s effort to keep trade moving through indirect routes after the US blockade, which began on April 13, closed the main passages in the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian ships and vessels linked to the Islamic Republic.

Iran International previously reported that the small Omani port of Khasab, on the Musandam Peninsula near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, had become one of the main alternatives for moving goods into Iran.

Cargoes that once moved through standard UAE-Iran channels have been transferred from Emirati ports to Khasab, then loaded onto Iranian vessels bound for ports on Iran’s southern coast.

But trade sources said the route has become slower in recent weeks as demand has risen.

The number of vessels gathering in Khasab has increased, while the port’s limited capacity has made loading and transfers more time-consuming and more expensive than in the first days after the ceasefire, the sources said.

Oman, which had previously imposed limited restrictions or charges on some cargoes, has also introduced new costs for certain goods in recent weeks.

One trade source said some shipments, including cars, are now subject to charges based on the value of the goods.

Against that backdrop, Umm Qasr, Iraq’s main Persian Gulf port, has become a complementary route.

How the new route works

Sources told Iran International that cars have been among the cargoes moved from Umm Qasr toward Iran. There is no confirmed information on whether other categories of goods are being transferred through the same route.

In this method, cars or other Iran-bound cargo are first shipped from docks in the UAE, including Dubai, to Umm Qasr under flags other than Iran’s.

From there, the cargo can move into Iran by land or by water.

On the land route, shipments travel from Umm Qasr to Basra, then to Iran's Shalamcheh border crossing, before reaching Khorramshahr and other destinations in Iran.

On the water route, vessels heading for Khorramshahr must enter the Shatt al-Arab, known in Iran as the Arvand River, and continue from there to Iranian piers.

Some cargoes can also move from Umm Qasr through Khor Abdullah toward southern Iranian ports, including Bandar Lengeh, according to the information obtained by Iran International.

Khasab, however, remains attractive to many traders despite congestion and higher costs.

One reason is that goods can reach Oman by both land and sea.

Some shipments can be moved from the UAE into Oman overland, and trade sources say monitoring of certain cargoes traveling by land to Oman is less strict than on fully maritime routes.

The Umm Qasr route is different.

Cargoes moving from the UAE to the Iraqi port generally have to be loaded at official docks in Dubai or other Emirati ports, where trailers and containers pass through scanning systems and face more stringent controls.

Umm Qasr’s location still makes it useful for Iran’s trade network.

The port lies about 60 kilometers south of Basra and is one of Iraq’s most important Gulf terminals. A significant share of Iraq’s imports of basic goods, including grain and sugar, moves through the port, which connects Iraq to Gulf trade routes.

Its proximity to Basra, the Shalamcheh crossing and Iran’s Khuzestan province has made it a practical option for shipments headed toward southwestern Iran.

Iranian local officials had previously referred to the use of this route.

Javad Kazem-Nasab Al-Baji, deputy governor of Khuzestan for economic affairs, said in May during a meeting with the head of Iran’s customs administration that agreements had been reached for the entry of basic goods and relief items through Iraq’s Umm Qasr port.

But the route also carries risks. The IRGC Navy recently targeted a commercial vessel at Umm Qasr, calling it “American-Israeli.” The IRGC said the attack was carried out in retaliation for a US strike on the Iranian vessel Lian Star.

The incident showed that even alternative routes through Iraq are not insulated from the military and security tensions surrounding the blockade.

For traders and transport intermediaries, however, pressure on Iran’s traditional maritime routes has made even more complicated and risky options part of the calculation.

The latest escalation began early Wednesday, when the United States struck an Iranian telecommunications tower on Qeshm Island. Iran responded by announcing attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Kuwaiti authorities said an Iranian drone struck Kuwait International Airport, killing one person and injuring dozens of others. The IRGC, however, denied targeting the airport.

The confrontation has put new pressure on the 56-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, with President Trump seeking to preserve the truce while Iranian hardliners argue that recent military action has strengthened Tehran’s position.

Trump keeps talks alive

Despite the latest confrontation, Trump has publicly remained optimistic about diplomacy, saying talks are progressing well and suggesting that an agreement could be reached by the end of the week.

He has described the latest American strike as severe but framed Iran’s response as retaliatory, a distinction that appears intended to leave space for diplomacy.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump privately told advisers that he wants to preserve the current ceasefire and would only consider resuming large-scale military operations if American service members are killed.

The message has left Washington in a delicate position: seeking to deter further Iranian attacks while avoiding steps that could collapse the ceasefire and end the negotiations altogether.

Iran’s rhetoric hardens

In Tehran, however, the public messaging has moved in the opposite direction.

Iran’s English-language Press TV argued that the country’s period of restraint had ended and described recent military action as part of a doctrine of “qualitative asymmetry,” under which Iranian responses would not necessarily remain proportional to the original attack.

The article said any hostile action by the United States, regardless of scale, could trigger a significantly broader Iranian response.

Hardline political figures have echoed that argument.

Kamran Ghazanfari, a former hardline lawmaker, accused officials of limiting the armed forces because of what he described as fruitless negotiations. He said Iran should respond to attacks with significantly greater force rather than seek compromise.

“Under no circumstances should we back down before the enemy, and if they hit one of our ships, we must hit three or four of theirs,” he said.

Such statements reflect growing pressure from hardliners who believe recent military action has strengthened Tehran’s position and that negotiations should not be allowed to restrain Iran’s military options.

Araghchi warns regional states

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also adopted a sharper tone Thursday, saying Iran had previously warned regional countries about allowing the United States to use military bases on their soil.

His comments followed Iranian attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, which Tehran announced after the United States struck an Iranian telecommunications tower on Qeshm Island in the early hours of Wednesday.

The exchange marked the most serious confrontation between Washington and Tehran since the ceasefire came into effect and immediately raised questions about its durability.

Kuwaiti authorities said an Iranian drone struck Kuwait International Airport, killing one person and injuring dozens of others. The IRGC denied targeting the airport.

A spokesperson for the force claimed that damage to the passenger terminal was caused by a malfunction involving a US-supplied Patriot missile system, arguing that interceptor missiles had fallen on the facility after failing to stop incoming Iranian projectiles.

Washington denied that Iranian missiles successfully struck American military installations. Iranian media outlets, however, published satellite images they said showed damage to a shelter used for drones and aircraft at Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem Air Base.

Iranian state media and IRGC-affiliated outlets have also dismissed photographs that purportedly show damage to Kuwait Airport, describing them as fabricated images intended to support what they called a false narrative.

Regional alarm grows

The attacks have deepened concern among regional governments that the ceasefire could unravel.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the Iranian missile and drone attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, warning that escalating hostilities could derail efforts to resolve the conflict through peaceful means.

Islamabad called on both sides to exercise maximum restraint and noted that formal negotiations between Tehran and Washington, which Iran suspended after recent US military actions, have not yet resumed.

The Pakistani statement underscored the widening regional stakes of the confrontation. While Trump has continued to emphasize the possibility of a deal, Iran’s suspension of direct message exchanges through mediators has left the diplomatic track vulnerable to further military escalation.

Lebanon adds pressure

Developments in Lebanon have added another layer of uncertainty.

Iran has linked continued negotiations with Washington to ceasefires across all regional fronts. But despite an earlier truce arrangement, Israel launched new attacks in southern Lebanon on Thursday.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem criticized agreements reached by the Lebanese government and said the group remains committed only to a complete cessation of Israeli attacks, a formal ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

The IRGC reinforced that position, saying a comprehensive ceasefire, including in Lebanon, remains a prerequisite for ending the broader regional conflict.

Some Iranian media outlets, including Iran View 24, have argued that Israeli military activity in Lebanon is intended not only to violate ceasefire arrangements but also to test Iran’s deterrence and the resilience of allied groups across the region.

Risk of unraveling

The longer talks remain unresolved, the greater the risk that military incidents and hardline pressure could overtake diplomacy.

Canada-based analyst Shahir Shahid Saless argued in a post on X that as negotiations drag on and Iranian leaders gain confidence from recent attacks on US positions in Kuwait and Bahrain, Trump may eventually reconsider his commitment to the ceasefire.

His assessment points to the central danger facing both sides: Trump is still signaling that he wants a deal, but Tehran’s public posture is becoming less conciliatory, and the ceasefire now depends not only on the US-Iran track but also on events in Kuwait, Bahrain and Lebanon.

For now, both governments continue to leave room for diplomacy. But the latest exchange has narrowed that room, giving hardliners in Tehran more space to argue that military pressure, not negotiation, is what has shifted the balance.

Israeli outlet Ynet reported on Thursday that the Mossad armed Kurdish militias with weapons seized from Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon as part of a plan to facilitate regime change in Iran.

The report said the CIA was also involved in the plan, but that US President Donald Trump ultimately canceled it under pressure from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It said the Kurds received money and vehicles and were armed with light weapons, anti-tank missiles, grenades and mortar shells.

However, Abdullah Mohtadi, secretary-general of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, told Iran International that his party had not received any weapons from Israel or the United States.

Khalid Azizi, spokesman for the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, also told Iran International that his party had received no weapons from Israel or the United States, calling the reports “completely untrue.”

Reza Kaabi, secretary-general of the Komala Party of Toilers of Kurdistan, also denied receiving any weapons from Israel or the United States and said other Iranian Kurdish parties had not received any weapons from the two countries either.

The three parties are among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups that have long opposed the Islamic Republic.

Kurdish ground invasion plan

The Jerusalem Post separately reported on Thursday that, according to sources close to outgoing Mossad chief David Barnea, the United States was in many ways the originator of the idea of using Kurdish forces to open an internal ground front against Iran’s government.

The report said Israel had hoped to activate Kurdish forces with previous combat experience, including groups involved in US-backed operations against Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003.

It said Israeli officials believed such a plan could allow Washington to avoid deploying its own ground forces, while Israel would provide air cover and firepower against Iranian forces trying to block a Kurdish advance.

In April, when asked about reported plans to have Kurdish forces launch a ground operation against Iran, Trump said, “I'd rather have them stay away because I think they bring with them some problems and some difficulties. They bring death, I mean to themselves."

The Jerusalem Post said the plan was ultimately halted amid disagreements in Washington over whether it could succeed, as well as pressure from Erdogan, who opposed any Kurdish military operation that could strengthen Kurdish groups near Turkey.

The report said some Israeli officials were skeptical of the operation, while Mossad officials and sources close to Barnea argued that the agency had already prepared the ground for it.

The report also said Israel had begun striking Iranian government and Basij targets in Kurdish areas during the war, but that only ten percent of the targets intended to support a Kurdish ground operation were hit before that stage of the campaign was halted.

According to the Jerusalem Post, Barnea told Trump in a video call on February 12 that Iran’s government was unlikely to fall immediately, but that a war combined with Kurdish ground pressure and continued US financial, maritime, diplomatic and military pressure could create the conditions for regime change within a year or more.

The report said Barnea believed those plans would become far less relevant if Trump lifted economic sanctions or ended the US counter-blockade against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz before a final agreement on key disputes.

In that scenario, the report said, Iran’s government could regain access to funds, strengthen its position and reduce the internal pressure needed for any renewed regime-change effort.

Published this week, Stolen Revolution: Betrayal and Hope in Modern Iran has drawn attention at policy forums in Washington and New York, where its authors discussed Iran’s modern history, the resilience of the Islamic Republic and the country’s uncertain future after war, economic collapse and the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei.

The New York Times Book Review described Stolen Revolution as “one of the most perceptive books on modern Iran in years, capturing not only the machinery of repression but the fragile forms of hope that survive beneath it.”

The Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings hosted Torbati, the New York Times Iran correspondent, and Sharafedin, the Head of Digital at Iran International and a former Reuters Iran correspondent, on Wednesday.

The discussion was moderated by Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at Brookings.

“One theme that runs throughout the book is the constant push and pull between the nation and the state,” Sharafedin said at the event.

“The Islamic Republic tries to project an image of continuity, to show it is business as usual and they are in full control. Much of the people’s struggle against the system has been an effort to break that continuity. Yet the system has proved quite resilient. Even foreign intervention was unable to create a rupture or break that continuity,” he said.

Sharafedin said the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei after his father was a sign of that continuity.

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The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February plunged the country into its most perilous crisis since the 1979 revolution, leaving the Islamic Republic struggling with the aftermath of war, a collapsing economy and the military's expanding role in state affairs.

“I think what we've learned over the last 10 or 12 weeks—and what also became clearer to us while writing the book—is that individuals play a very important role in shaping the trajectory of events,” Torbati said.

“At the same time, the system is bigger than any one person—whether a supreme leader, a general, or a national security adviser. It is a system deeply committed to its own survival and self-preservation.”

Torbati said Iran is projected to face around 70 percent inflation this year. Food prices have soared, and layoffs have followed the war. Yet the system and its leadership appear willing to absorb those costs, and have ordinary Iranians bear much of the burden, in order to survive and avoid capitulating to the United States and Israel.

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“By contrast, American leaders must contend with public opinion. President Trump has to worry about public support, and his party has to worry about the midterm elections,” she said.

“As a result, the Iranian government can often tolerate far more pain and pursue tactics for much longer than its American counterparts. I think that helps explain its survival up to this point.”

At a separate discussion hosted by the 92nd Street Y in New York on Wednesday night, journalist Scott Anderson, the author of King of Kings, joined Torbati and Sharafedin to assess Iran's modern history and the fallout from the US-Israeli war.

“Iranians have expressed [they want democracy] many, many times, and they've been machine-gunned for it,” Anderson said, referring to the January massacre in Iran that killed tens of thousands.

“Iran is not a closed society like North Korea. Iranians have a very good concept of what's happening in the outside world. Yet it's just this massive monolithic structure that has the guns,” he said.

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The book traces how a revolution that promised to build an egalitarian society gradually transformed into what the authors describe as a mafia state. It tells that story through the lives of six Iranians whose experiences span the arc of modern Iranian history and who undergo profound transformations themselves.

One of them is Mehdi Karroubi, a devoted follower of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who rose to the highest ranks of power. Over time, however, he became a vocal critic of the Islamic Republic after seeing corruption, especially the growing role of the Revolutionary Guards in the economy. He paid a heavy price for his criticism and ultimately spent years under house arrest.

Another is Said Rahmani, who returned to Iran hoping to spark a startup boom in his country. Instead, he encountered a ruthless security state that seized much of his business empire and eventually forced him into exile.

“In my opinion, this is a book that will be of great interest both to those who have never read anything about Iran but are watching the news and want to better understand the country, and to those of us who already have large libraries of books on Iran,” Maloney said.

Former UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw called the book “extraordinarily powerful,” while Jonathan Blitzer, an American journalist and writer, described it as “a masterwork of reporting.”

David Hoffman, author of The Billion Dollar Spy, called it “a brilliant investigative history of modern Iran,” and the BBC’s Lyse Doucet said it was “a rare and riveting chronicle of a major political story of our time.”

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"The shortage of opium tincture has become one of the most serious challenges facing addiction treatment centers," Saeed Safatian, a former treatment director at Iran's Drug Control Headquarters, told ILNA.

Supplies of opium tincture, one of the three main medicines used in Iran's addiction treatment system alongside methadone and buprenorphine, have fallen sharply in recent months.

Safatian linked the shortages to reduced availability of raw opium following the Taliban's ban on poppy cultivation in Afghanistan and said authorities had failed to prepare adequately despite years of warnings about potential supply disruptions.

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  Iranians question official inaction over opium epidemic

Proposals to cultivate opium domestically for pharmaceutical purposes and efforts to secure imports from countries including India and Turkey failed to materialize, leaving treatment providers with few options, according to Safatian.

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The shortages have fueled concerns among addiction specialists that patients unable to obtain prescribed medicines could return to the illicit drug market.

"Nearly one million patients depend on maintenance treatment with opium tincture across the country, but treatment centers in more than 15 provinces have faced shortages or suspension of their medicine allocations," Ali Ahmadi, deputy head of Tehran province's addiction treatment providers association, said earlier during a protest by treatment providers outside the Health Ministry.

A worker at an addiction treatment center told Iran International in January that he had received no support from the State Welfare Organization despite a decade of operating a treatment facility. The revocation of licenses for some centers had also pushed many patients toward methadone treatment, he said.

The effects of the shortages became apparent in 2023 and intensified in 2025, when some treatment centers were able to provide opium tincture to only a fraction of patients seeking it, Safatian said.

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  Shortage of opium syrup threatens addiction treatment in Iran

He warned that some users could shift to methamphetamine or combine multiple substances, making treatment more difficult and increasing health, social and economic harms.

Shortages of opium tincture, methadone and other addiction medicines, he said, could continue in the coming months if problems securing raw materials and foreign currency persist, adding to pressure on Iran's addiction treatment system.