The Iran-Israel conflict: what we know so far

The Iran-focused human rights group HRANA reported that Israeli attacks on Iran since Friday killed 215 people and wounded nearly 700, mostly civilians. Over 50 were confirmed to be military personnel, it added, saying figures were preliminary.

Both sides appeared far from ending their volleys of fire which started when Israel launched a surprise attack on Thursday which killed some of Iran's top military leadership and attacked bases and nuclear sites.

Iranian missiles killed at least 10 people in Israel and injured 200 overnight, the country's paramedics service reported. 35 people were unaccounted for in an attack on Bat Yam south of Tel Aviv, the Times of Israel reported.

Throughout Saturday Israeli attacks hit Iran's defense ministry, Tehran's Shahran oil depot, buildings in in the capital and the Fajr Jam oil refinery - the country's largest.

Crucially, Israel hit part of Iran's South Pars gas field, according to Iranian media, halting 12 million cubic meters of gas production. Also struck was Iran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its Persian acronym SPND, a key hub of Iran's nuclear program.

The Israeli military announced it had hit 150 targets across Iran.

The United Kingdom and France called for calm, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Fox News President Donald Trump still hoped for a reconciliation: "President Trump continues to say to Iran: hey! You have an option for peace."

Israel's initial salvo killed the head of Iran's Revolutionary guards, armed forces chief, air force commander, a top intelligence figure and several nuclear scientists.

Air strikes late on Friday targeted an oil refinery in Tabriz, Tehran's Mehrabad airport and a military base in Kermanshah.

Israel's military spokesperson said the target of the airport attack were ready-to-launch missiles had been stored in underground facilities.

The UN nuclear watchdog said Saturday that no damage was observed at Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant or the Khondab heavy water reactor, a day after it said an attack on the Natanz nuclear facility caused extensive damage above ground.

Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman for Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff, said the missile strikes on Israel were intended to hit military targets but blamed Israeli electronic countermeasures for pushing them off course into civilian areas.

“If some of our missiles hit residential areas, it was because Israel created interference to prevent the missiles from striking military targets,” Shekarchi was quoted as saying by Iranian state media.

Iran signals canceling US talks

Iran said on Saturday it may withdraw from upcoming negotiations with the United States, citing Israel’s ongoing military strikes and accusing Washington of complicity in the escalation.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told EU foreign policy chief Kaya Kallas that continuing talks with Washington was “unjustifiable” while Israeli attacks were underway, according to Iranian state media.

Earlier in the day, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei signaled Iran was not immediately scuppering its nuclear negotiations but accused Washington of colluding with Israel in its campaign.

“It is still unclear what decision we will make by Sunday regarding the upcoming talks,” Baghaei said in remarks carried by state media.

Baghaei accused Israel of acting with at least a green light from Washington, saying, “It is inconceivable that Israel could commit such adventurism and warmongering in the region without coordination or conscious approval from the United States.”

Warnings, calls for calm

Iran formally notified the United States, United Kingdom and France that it plans to launch extensive attacks against Israel and warned that any country assisting in repelling these strikes will face retaliation.

According to Iranian state media, Tehran said that all regional bases of what it called "collaborating governments," including military installations in Persian Gulf countries and naval vessels in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, would be targeted by Iranian forces if those countries intervene.

After a muted reaction following Israel's initial attacks on Friday local time, Western leaders began sounding notes of caution on Saturday.

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy held separate phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday, urging both sides to exercise restraint as the combat persisted.

Pope Leo XIV called for a safer world free from nuclear threats, urging "responsibility and reason."

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi told the United Nations on Friday that an Israeli attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility destroyed an area where highly enriched uranium was produced.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin held a 50-minute call on Saturday focused on the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, after Oman's foreign minister announced the sixth round of Tehran-Washington talks will not take place.

“Putin condemned Israel's military operation against Iran and expressed serious concern about a possible escalation of the conflict, which would have unpredictable consequences for the entire situation in the Middle East,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Saturday.

Trump said that his special envoy Steve Witkoff was ready to resume nuclear talks with Iran's foreign minister, according to the Russian president's foreign policy adviser.

“While there will be no meeting Sunday, we remain committed to talks and hope the Iranians will come to the table soon,” Axios quoted a US official as saying.

However, Pezeshkian told French President Emmanuel Macron in a phone call, “The Islamic Republic will not sit at the negotiating table under pressure, irrational demands, double standards—or during continued Israeli aggression."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on Saturday that continued Israeli attacks—and US support for them—made talks “unjustifiable.”

Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei also said Israel's strikes had “rendered diplomacy meaningless.”

Yet behind the scenes, there may still be movement. Despite Iran’s hard public line, two Western diplomats told Axios that Araghchi privately indicated Tehran could return to talks once it concludes its military response to Israel’s strikes.

“This operation took years to prepare,” Chikli told Eye for Iran. “It's the very hard walk of the IDF intelligence, the Mossad... thousands of people are involved in this.”

“This is just the beginning,” he said, without disclosing operational details or how the mission might continue.

Iran launched over 200 missiles at Israel injuring at least 14 people after Israeli attacks killed its top military leadership and pounded armed forces and nuclear sites leaving scores of Iranians dead.

While Israel’s initial strikes hit key nuclear sites like Natanz and Fordow, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure spans dozens of locations. According to Israeli assessments, further strikes will likely be needed to eliminate what is seen as an existential threat.

Chikli said the objective was not regime change, but to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. While many Iranians have called on Israel to help bring down the Islamic Republic, he said meaningful change must come from within.

“This is the time to seize the moment and to try and take back your country from the Revolutionary Guards," said Chikli, "Will Iranians use this moment to change the course of history, or not?”

Diplomacy may follow destruction

Major Andrew Fox, a former British Army officer, also said the Israeli strikes were deliberately calibrated to avoid full-scale regime decapitation—signaling intent, not total war.

“If they'd been serious about regime change, then Khamenei and the president would have been fully in scope for targeting.”

Fox emphasized that while regime change might remain a long-term objective, Israel’s more immediate priority is clear: "The short-term aim has to be focusing on making sure Iran doesn't gain a nuclear weapon capability."

He suggested that President Donald Trump may be using the Israeli operation as strategic leverage to push Tehran back to the negotiating table—after exhausting political and economic pressure.

“Trump is talking about giving Iran another opportunity to make a deal... That's the horse trade that Israel made with Washington.”

Fox’s analysis points to a pattern: when sanctions and diplomacy fail to alter Tehran’s behavior, military action becomes a final tool—not necessarily to start a war, but to reset the terms for diplomacy.

Iran’s weakest moment

Dr. Eric Mandel, a Middle East analyst and advisor to US and Israeli defense officials, told Eye for Iran that this moment marks the Islamic Republic’s deepest vulnerability since its founding in 1979—one of the most consequential events in modern Iranian and Middle Eastern history.

“Iran is at its weakest in 46 years,” said Mandel, who directs the Middle East Political and Information Network (MEPIN).

He says Trump now faces a defining choice—retreat into isolationism or use Israeli military action as leverage for long-term strategic change.

“The big question is, what will President Trump do? Not what the Israelis will do. What will the president do with what Israel has handed to them?”

Mandel suggests that one option remains on the table: a US strike on Iran’s deeply fortified enrichment site.

“America could retaliate and would the president make a phone call to Diego Garcia where our B-2 bombers with the massive ordinances are and attack the one place that hasn't been attacked as we know which is the deeply buried enrichment facility in Fordow”

The Lion Rises
Israeli Minister Chikli said the operation’s name, Rising Lion, came from both Iran’s original flag and a verse from the Book of Numbers: ‘A nation that rises like a lion.’

"We believe this is a moment not just for security—but for shared history and future peace.”

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music and Castbox.

A first wave of Iranian attacks comprised around 200 missiles, a source close to the Israeli government told Iran International, adding that fewer than 10 landed. Two more waves followed, residents and Israeli media reported.

Fourteen people were injured in a strike on a Tel Aviv building near the defense ministry, paramedics and Israeli media reported.

Several others were injured in other parts of Tel Aviv including a woman who succumbed to her injuries.

A source close to the Israeli government told Iran International that the "massive" hit to the building and the killing of and injuries to civilians meant the Jewish State would now consider targeting Iran's oil and gas infrastructure in retaliation, a potentially major escalation.

Israel's military urged residents to take shelter and said missile defense interceptions were ongoing.

Waves of Israeli airstrikes had hit nuclear facilities, military bases and the private homes of senior leaders all over Iran in an unprecedented attack by Israel against its Mideast arch-nemesis.

The strikes killed Hossein Salami, the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, armed forces chief of staff Mohammed Bagheri, air force commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and several top nuclear scientists.

79 people were killed and hundreds wounded in Tehran alone, according to local health authorities, as a nationwide casualty count was yet to emerge.

US President Donald Trump on Friday lauded Israel's broad surprise attack against Iran which assassinated Tehran's top commanders, urging the Islamic Republic to sign a nuclear deal or face more punishment.

“They missed the opportunity to make a deal. Now, they may have another opportunity. We’ll see," US President Trump told NBC news in an interview on Friday.

Trump added added that Iranian officials were reaching out to the United States. "They're calling me to speak."

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei survived and vowed to punish Israel for the attack.

Israeli forces say they intercepted incoming Iranian drones over neighboring Syria and Jordan on Friday and the Israeli military's head of operations Major General Oded Basiuk on Friday urged readiness because "the enemy’s response will come".

New Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Pakpour said Iran would respond to Israel's attacks and Tehran would open "the gates of hell", while Iran summoned the Swiss ambassador who represents US interests in Tehran and warned Washington against blocking Iranian counterattack.

An Israeli official told Iran International that Israel carried out a complex and multi-phase operation that disabled the launch of hundreds of Iranian ground-to-ground missiles aimed at Israeli territory.

"Painful fate"

Khamenei vowed retaliation, saying in statement, ""By God’s will, the powerful arm of the Islamic Republic’s armed forces will not let it go unpunished."

"With this crime, the Zionist regime has prepared a bitter and painful fate for itself—and it will undoubtedly face it."

A senior Israeli official told Iran International that leaders' homes and not civilians were targeted in the strikes in Tehran.

Iran's Natanz and Fordow nuclear sites were hit but only sustained superficial damage, a spokesperson for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said.

"Unilateral action"

Further Iranian retaliation could swiftly follow after it launched two direct missile attacks on Israel last year, and Washington began drawing down personnel in the region on Wednesday as tensions flared.

Iran's Persian Gulf neighbors Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar condemned the attack. Arab capitals, while often wary of Tehran, are keen to avoid a regional conflict or Iranian attacks on US bases in their countries.

"Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement issued by the White House on Thursday. "We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,"

"Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a video address in which he said the operation was an open-ended campaign to remove what he called Iran's threat.

"Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel's very survival," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video address on Friday local time.

"This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat for decades, the tyrants of Tehran have brazenly openly called for Israel's destruction. They backed up their genocidal rhetoric with a program to develop nuclear weapons."

Confrontation stepped up

Tehran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel in October last year following Israeli military successes against its armed allies in the region and the assassination of a top Palestinian official on Iranian soil.

Israel retaliated with nationwide air strikes which hit Iranian air defenses but the confrontation quickly ended.

Iran and Israel are bitter foes whose decades of shadow conflict burst into the open last year after the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Iran-backed Hamas militants plunged the region into renewed conflict.

The strike was broad in scope, targeting senior commanders, nuclear sites, missile systems, weapons production facilities, and scientists involved in military projects.

Crucially, it came as the Islamic Republic was preparing for Sunday’s negotiations with Washington—amplifying the element of surprise. The tactics were highly unexpected and caught Tehran off guard.

Israel’s main goal was to eliminate the regime’s senior military hierarchy. That aim was largely achieved.

Confirmed killed were Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of the Armed Forces General Staff; Hossein Salami, IRGC Commander-in-Chief; Gholam Ali Rashid, head of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command; Amir Ali Hajizadeh, IRGC Aerospace Force Commander; Mehdi Rabani, IRGC Deputy for Operations; and Ali Shamkhani, senior advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei and head of the nuclear program.

The assassinations point to deep Israeli intelligence penetration into Iran’s security structure. Mossad appears to have access to top-level information.

Former Intelligence Minister Ali Younesi had warned a while ago that Israeli infiltration was so extensive senior officials should fear for their lives—a warning that now seems prescient.

Israel also killed several top nuclear scientists—the “brains” behind the weapons program. The knowledge infrastructure suffered a major blow, though not total collapse. Some veteran scientists have been confirmed dead, marking a serious setback to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Equally damaging, Iran’s air defenses collapsed at the critical moment. The November strike and this latest assault suggest Tehran’s systems are unable to counter Israeli air superiority when it matters most.

Israel’s air force targeted nuclear sites, especially in Natanz. While Tehran has disclosed little, Israeli officials say—and reported explosions suggest—that key infrastructure, built at enormous cost, was destroyed.

Israel also asserts to have struck multiple missile and rocket sites, as well as weapons factories, destroying hundreds of missiles and drones hidden underground. If confirmed, this would further demonstrate Israel’s deep military intelligence reach. Iran’s offensive capability has been badly degraded, though not entirely neutralized.

The operation was carried out by the Israeli military and Mossad. It showed not only air dominance but also intelligence and technological superiority—enough to operate freely on Iranian soil.

Israel has signaled the operation is ongoing.

Its vow to continue strikes suggests a preselected target bank and a broader strategy aimed at reducing Iran’s military threat to the lowest level.

The approach mirrors campaigns against Hamas and Hezbollah: dismantle leadership, cripple retaliatory capacity, and push the remaining structure toward surrender.