Syria to target Iran with $300 billion compensation demand - Lebanese outlet

This phase began with the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah, continued with the weakening of Bashar al-Assad and Iran’s diminishing influence in Syria, and is now advancing as Israel focuses on defeating the Houthis in Yemen.

Evidence suggests that even Iraq’s pro-Tehran Hashd al-Shaabi militia has scaled back its overt support for the Islamic Republic’s agenda, leaving Tehran increasingly isolated in the face of an alliance comprising the US, Israel, and even Europe. Domestically, severe economic challenges and widespread public dissatisfaction have created one of the most difficult periods in the history of the Islamic Republic.

In this context, the overall US policy is combining political, economic, and even military pressure to push the Islamic Republic to the negotiating table. The aim is to reach an agreement stricter than the JCPOA, either halting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs or exposing it to intensified pressure and even potential military action if it refuses to comply.

Despite its structural weaknesses and mounting international pressures, the Islamic Republic’s leadership remains defiant. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatens nuclear weaponization and reclaiming Syria, while simultaneously sending signals of willingness to negotiate through diplomats like Mohammad Javad Zarif. However, it appears that the US, Israel, and even Europe are aware of the dangers of a resurgent Islamic Republic and are determined to prevent it from returning to a position of defiance and belligerence.

The chain of setbacks for the Islamic Republic began with Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023. Tehran mistakenly believed this assault would inflict an irreparable defeat on Israel.

Misguided analyses by the Islamic Republic’s leaders, particularly Khamenei and IRGC commanders, led to decisions that resulted in a series of defeats.

In response to the attack, Israel acted swiftly, strengthening its regional position within 15 months. This included large-scale military operations against Hamas, destruction of its military bases, and the assassination of senior leaders such as Yahya Sinwar, Saleh al-Arouri, and Ismail Haniyeh. Israel also ignored warnings from the US and the international community to launch an offensive in Gaza, leveraging force to reshape the Middle East.

The second major misstep by the Islamic Republic occurred when it urged Hezbollah to attack Israel’s northern borders in support of Hamas. Initially, Israel issued repeated warnings for Hezbollah to cease its aggression. When these warnings were ignored, Israel launched an operation dubbed New Order, which delivered surprising results. These included the destruction of Hezbollah’s command centers and equipment, as well as the killing of senior leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah. These developments fundamentally altered the region’s dynamics and demonstrated that, like Hamas, Hezbollah lacks the capability to withstand Israel’s extensive military campaigns.

On the international stage, the US and Europe, recognizing the Islamic Republic’s vulnerabilities, are now seeking to capitalize on this opportunity to drive significant changes in Iran’s regional policies. Meanwhile, Israel’s aggressive strategies aim to keep Tehran on the defensive.

Within Iran, widespread public dissatisfaction with the regime’s policies and economic mismanagement has deeply affected the country’s social and political landscape.

Popular protests and civil movements highlight the critical role of the Iranian people in shaping the nation’s future. The convergence of international, regional, and domestic pressures has created a historic opportunity to move beyond the Islamic Republic.

"Iran must respect the will of the Syrian people and the country's sovereignty and security. We warn them from spreading chaos in Syria and we hold them accountable for the repercussions of the latest remarks," Asaad Shaibani said on X.

His remarks, made on Monday, are the most direct and public warning by Syria’s new rulers to Tehran since the fall of Tehran's ally, President Bashar al-Assad.

The reaction follows calls from Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei On December 22, who said: “We predict that a strong and honorable movement will emerge in Syria, as the Syrian youth now have nothing to lose.

"Their schools, universities, homes, and streets are unsafe, so they must stand resolutely against those who design and execute insecurity and overcome them with determination.”

Ahmad al-Sharaa, the former rebel leader who now holds power in Syria, had previously criticized the Islamic Republic for its meddling in Syria by participating in the civil war since 2011, supporting the decades-long Assad dynasty.

He blamed Iran’s military presence and its allied militias which supported Assad for the death and displacement of millions of Syrians.

However, this is the first time Syria’s new officials have openly responded to remarks by Khamenei and other Iranian officials who oppose the group who deposed al-Assad in record time, and are now receiving international support.

Iran sided with Assad in the early days of a popular movement in Syria demanding a change of government. Soon Tehran began deploying troops and fighters to defend the government against protesters and rebels. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians died in the ensuing 13-year civil war.

This was not the first time Khamenei suggested Syria's new rulers would be toppled.

“Everyone should know that things will not remain as they are … Certainly, the courageous Syrian youth will rise up, resist, and, even at the cost of casualties, overcome this situation, he said in a speech this month.

Syria would be won back "just as the brave Iraqi youth, after the US occupation, with the help, organization, and leadership of our dear martyr Qasem Soleimani, managed to drive the enemy out of their homes and streets," Khamenei said.

"This may take a long time in Syria, but the outcome is inevitable and certain.”

Last week, Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa said Syria's opposition had “set the Iranian project in the region back by 40 years,” signaling a major shift in Syria’s stance toward Iran.

“By removing Iranian militias and closing Syria to Iranian influence, we’ve served the region’s interests—achieving what diplomacy and external pressure could not, with minimal losses," he said.

Iran’s exit from Syria marks a serious setback for Tehran’s ‘Shiite Crescent’, built over the past two decades to extend its control west to the Mediterranean coast, by creating proxy groups in Iraq, supporting Assad in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

"While Iran's vast desert regions have undeniable geographical beauty, they are not without their inherent complexities and strategic considerations; we aim to guarantee that the desert remains a secure and stable environment, free from any acts of malice or unrest," Radan added.

Elaborating on their locations, Radan explained that one command center will be established in Semnan, another in the Kerman and Yazd regions, and the central command will oversee operations in Sistan-Baluchestan and South Khorasan provinces.

Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province has experienced numerous attacks attributed to Jaish al-Adl, a group notorious for ambushes, bombings, and other operations that have claimed the lives of both civilians and security personnel.

Jaish al-Adl advocates for an independent Balochistan, encompassing Baloch populations on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border, and has carried out numerous armed attacks in southeastern Iran.

"SpaceX must comply with Iran's regulations, otherwise the Islamic Republic could disrupt its coverage," said Amir Mohammadzadeh Lajevardi, the former deputy minister for Information and Communication Technology.

Lajevardi, who is considered close to current thinking and decision-makers, made the remarks in an interview with the state television.

The remarks come after the Supreme Council of Cyberspace announced Iran would lift restrictions on some digital platforms like WhatsApp and Google Play while maintaining control on others.

Iranians who face some of the world's toughest internet restrictions have in recent months shared videos and photos of Starlink satellite internet terminals being installed on rooftops, raising expectations that this technology could soon render the government’s internet filtering efforts ineffective.

"In the two years since Washington green lit SpaceX’s satellite internet service," Forbes reported earlier this month, "an underground worldwide network of smuggling and advocacy has brought uncensored internet to thousands of people in the Islamic Republic."

The availability of Starlink is seen by many as a potential game-changer for bypassing state-imposed online restrictions, allowing greater access to unfiltered internet in Iran.

In October 2023, Iran's Ministry of Telecommunications demanded that SpaceX obtain licensing for Starlink operations and filed a complaint with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) over unauthorized use in Iran, which resulted in a ruling in Iran's favor.

While over 60 countries have approved Starlink services, Iran is likely to demand access to user data—a request SpaceX would almost certainly reject.

The terminals typically cost around $500, depending on the model, with a monthly subscription fee of $110. However, in the Iranian market, prices are significantly higher, reaching up to three times the standard cost.

Those found using Starlink in Iran risk prosecution for possessing smuggled goods.

In November 2023, Iranian security forces confiscated 22 Starlink terminals, claiming they were CIA property intended for use by the office of dissident Sunni cleric Abdolhamid Esmail-Zehi.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar made the request in a letter to US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, who is the rotating president of the UN Security Council.

In the letter, Sa’ar cited three attacks on Israel over the past week by the Houthis, one of which destroyed a school in Ramat Gan.

“I must underscore that the persistent acts of hostility by the Houthis are in flagrant violation of international law,” he said, calling them “an ongoing threat to international peace and security.”

The Houthis fired another missile at Israel on Tuesday, hours after Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed to "behead" the Houthis' leaders.

"These days, when the Houthi terrorist organization is firing missiles at Israel, I want to convey a clear message to them at the beginning of my remarks: We have defeated Hamas, we have defeated Hezbollah, we have blinded Iran's defense systems and damaged the production systems, we have toppled the Assad regime in Syria, we have dealt a severe blow to the axis of evil, and we will also deal a severe blow to the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen, which remains the last to stand," Katz said Monday.

"We'll severely cripple the Houthis, damage their strategic infrastructure, and we will behead their leaders – just as we did to Haniyeh, Sinwar and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza and Lebanon – we will do it in Hodeidah and Sana'a," Katz added.

Muhammad Ali al-Houthi, who sits on the Houthi political council in Yemen, sent a threatening message to the US and Saudi Arabia on Monday, saying that "if the Americans attack Yemen, we will attack their interests in the Middle East."

"We will have no red lines," he said, two days after the United States launched precision airstrikes targeting multiple military positions in Sana'a.

Israel's top diplomat on Tuesday instructed his country's diplomatic missions in the European Union and the United Kingdom to push for the designation of Houthis as a terrorist organization.

“The Houthis pose a threat not only to Israel but to the region and the entire world,” Sa’ar said in a statement, warning of the group’s threat to international shipping lanes and calling their designation as terrorists “the first and most basic step” in countering them.

The Houthis are designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including the US, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Israel. However, no European countries have listed the group as such to date.