Israel expects Iranian missile salvo in coming hours - Axios

New data from the Central Bank of Iran reveals that the average price per square meter of housing in Tehran hit 885 million rials (around $1,500), leaving over half of renters with little hope of ever buying a home due to low-income levels.

According to the Central Bank’s estimates, housing prices have increased nearly elevenfold since the start of US sanctions in 2018 and have tripled in local currency over the past three years, during the presidency of Ebrahim Raisi. During the same period the rial fell 50% against the US dollar.

Although the figures provided by the Central Bank indicate a significant rise in housing prices, a loan expert at a private Iranian bank told Iran International that the actual increase in housing prices is much higher than what the Central Bank claims.

Chichek M, identified here by a pseudonym for security reasons, further explained that due to the obligation to offer loans, particularly mortgage loans, at interest rates below inflation, banks in the country have been incurring losses.

According to the latest official reports, Iran's seven largest banks collectively have accumulated losses of 4,640 trillion rials (about $7.7 billion).

Chichek added that while the country’s inflation rate is around 45%, the interest rate for bank loans is set at approximately 23%.

The Central Bank's statistics on housing prices also contradict figures from other governmental institutions. For instance, the Central Bank claims that the average price per square meter of housing in Tehran increased by 16.8% year-on-year in August, whereas the Statistical Center of Iran reports this figure to be 43%.

A significant portion of the soaring house prices in Iran is attributed to the devaluation of the rial against foreign currencies, particularly the US dollar. However, the Central Bank's detailed data reveals that even accounting for currency fluctuations, housing prices have nearly doubled in dollar terms.

The exchange rate of the US dollar has jumped from 40,000 rials in early 2018 to around 600,000 rials, marking a 600% increase. However, during the same period, housing prices have surged by 1,000%, based on Iranian rial.

One reason for the faster rise in housing inflation compared to the rial’s depreciation against the dollar is the government's failure to build new housing. Another factor is the rush of people’s rial-based assets into the housing market as a way to preserve their value.

For example, President Ebrahim Raisi promised to build one million housing units annually, but Mohammadreza Rezaei Kochi, the head of the Parliament’s Construction Committee, says this plan has only achieved 2% progress: “Over the past three years, only a small portion of the previous government’s unfinished projects have been completed and handed over to the public”.

Meanwhile, the ISNA news agency reported on September 22, citing new Central Bank data, that 51% of Tehran's population cannot afford to buy a home priced at 885 trillion rials per square meter.

The report adds that 51% of Tehranian households are renters, who, in addition to facing 45% inflation in rental costs, would have to wait 48 years to purchase a home.

ISNA notes that housing has become a major crisis for everyone in recent years. It describes homeownership as a dream for many Iranians, one that they may never realize in their lifetime.

The announcement said the raids were based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah "terrorist targets and infrastructure" in southern Lebanon as the conflict between the two sides reaches the closest it has come to war since 2006.

“These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel,” the statement said, carried out by the elite 98th division, deployed two weeks ago from Gaza.

Since October 7 when Iran-backed Hamas invaded Israel, sparking the Gaza war, Iran’s biggest proxy, Hezbollah, has engaged in almost daily bombardments of Israel’s north in allegiance with Hamas.

It has seen 63,000 Israelis displaced and over 100,000 Lebanese. Since operations stepped up two weeks ago when Israel targeted what is believed to be 1,500 Hezbollah operatives in pager and walkie-talkie explosions, hundreds of thousands more Lebanese have fled southern Lebanon and Hezbollah-controlled areas of Beirut.

Air strikes have blitzed Hezbollah, including assassinating its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, last week. Its top commanders have also been eliminated.

The Israeli military also released footage of the preparations for the ground operation named Northern Arrows.

Meanwhile, as the successor to Nasrallah remains to be announced, then group’s deputy, Naim Qassem, warned that the group would continue its campaign in the first televised address following Nasrallah’s killing.

“Hezbollah will go on with its goals and its battle,” he said, saying that in spite of the annihilation of the top ranks of the group’s commanders, they would be easily replaced.

“Our system of command and control as well as the mujahideen [fighters] will continue to follow up and implement the alternative plans accurately. All are ready in the battlefield.”

Addressing the pager operation which left the group humiliated on the world stage after Israel infiltrated the group's communications network, he said: “We have sacrificed a lot since the pager operations, the martyrdom of the commanders and the martyrdom of the leader (Nasrallah).

"If this happens anywhere else with any organization across the world, it will collapse, but we did not. We are going on despite the pains and the sacrifices. We are going on because we have the hope and we trust Allah almighty to be victorious. We are the people of jihad.”

US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, gave the green light to his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, for the limited incursion.

According to a Pentagon readout of the call between the two officials, they “agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Lebanese [Hezbollah] cannot conduct October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern communities”.

While the US and UK were helping citizens to leave Beirut amid the escalation, the situation in Israel remained unchanged. A US official, speaking off the record to Iran International, said: “Israel has a great ability to deter terrorist threats with the likes of the Iron Dome so the situation here is much more stable.”

Andrew Fox, an ex-officer in the British forces, said on X that the Israeli incursion was not a simple operation. “It’s a huge area to try and clear - and impossible to hold, and nothing to stop Hezbollah reinfiltrating after the IDF withdraw,” he said.

“I’ll be amazed if this IDF ground op in Lebanon is more than a relatively limited incursion to clear known sites. Similar to creating a buffer zone. I cannot see any sense in a full scale invasion.”

The operation is focusing on the border area which was meant to be protected by UNIFIL’s peacekeepers in the 2006 UN Resolution 1701. On a clearly marked line, the border between the two countries was meant to be cleared of terror groups and the groups forced to disarm. Neither has happened.

In a statement, UNIFIL said: "Yesterday, the IDF notified UNIFIL of their intention to undertake limited ground incursions into Lebanon. Despite this dangerous development, peacekeepers remain in position.

"Any crossing into Lebanon is in violation of Lebanese sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a violation of resolution 1701. We urge all actors to step back from such escalatory acts, which will only lead to more violence and more bloodshed. We strongly urge the parties to recommit to Security Council resolutions and 1701 (2006) as the only viable solution to bring back stability in this region."

Reuters reported that "the Lebanese forces withdrew five kilometers north of the border”.

A senior political figure opposed to Hezbollah in Lebanon, speaking to Iran International of anonymity, said: "Hezbollah acted alone as a non-state actor and cannot expect the state to defend them when a retaliation takes place. As the Lebanese Army was unable to disarm Hezbollah, it cannot be dragged into a war to defend it either."

"Lebanese sovereign territory is under attack, and Hezbollah is part of a regional armed networked controlled by the Iranian regime. Lebanon alone cannot defend itself against internal and external actors and strengthen its sovereign institutions without the support of the international community represented in the United Nations and Arab League."

On Tuesday morning, sirens were sounded in central Israel as Hezbollah targeted deeper into the country with multiple ballistic missiles. The Israeli military said the projectiles were intercepted but there have been reports at the time of publication of at least one man suffering shrapnel injuries, according to Magen David Adom, Israel's rescue service.

Israeli military announced there had been a direct hit on Israel's highway 6 near Kfar Qasim.

Hezbollah also claimed it fired Fadi-4 missiles toward the intelligence agency Mossad's headquarters in Glilot, north of Tel Aviv, while Iran's Tasnim news agency said "the initial plan of the Zionists to advance by land into Lebanese territory has failed so far".

The British foreign secretary, David Lammy, reiterated calls for a diplomatic solution to the crisis which shows no signs of easing. "Speaking to [US] Secretary [of State Antony] Blinken this evening, we were clear on the need for a diplomatic solution in the Middle East."

"The UK is calling for an immediate ceasefire and the implementation of a political plan that allows displaced Israeli and Lebanese civilians to return to their homes,” he said.

The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, announced that a top Hamas commander, Fatah Sharif, killed by Israel in south Lebanon Monday, was one of its employees but had been suspended since allegations of his ties to the militant group emerged in March.

Israel has alleged that UNRWA has been infiltrated by the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group.

During talks with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, Austin stressed that Washington is "well-postured to defend US personnel, partners, and allies in the face of threats from Iran and Iran-backed terrorist organizations.

“I reiterated the serious consequences for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel,” the US official wrote on X.

Iran stated on Monday that it would not send forces to Lebanon or Gaza. Still, it vowed an unspecified response to Israel following massive Israeli airstrikes on Beirut on Friday, which killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iranian commander Abbas Nilforoushan, and other senior Hezbollah figures. The attack marked the largest strike on Hezbollah's stronghold in nearly a year of conflict.

Israel’s intensified strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have raised fears that the fighting could escalate, potentially drawing in Iran and the US, Israel’s key ally.

Despite this, Iran has not openly mentioned retaliation. Last week, Axios reported that Hezbollah requested Iran's support for retaliation, but Iranian officials were hesitant, expressing reservations about joining the fight against Israel.

The IRGC announced on Monday that its decisions are grounded in “rationality, and not influenced by the sentiments of social media." The political deputy of the IRGC emphasized, "Some suggest, 'If we had retaliated for the assassination of General Soleimani and Haniyeh, certain events wouldn't have happened,' or 'If we don’t respond, the enemies will take the next step.'"

He added, "While there may be excitement for action, any operation must be approached with rationality, careful consideration, and a thorough analysis of the situation."

The conservative Iranian newspaper Jomhuri Eslami wrote on Tuesday that rejecting the theory of revenge is a precise and logical strategy, as the US aims to expand the war in the region.

The newspaper stated: "At a time when various individuals and factions, through extremist remarks, are trying to push the region toward a full-scale war, prioritizing resistance and rejecting the theory of revenge is a precise strategy."

Still, some conservative media continued to call for retaliation against both Israel and the US. Tehran’s Farhikhtegan newspaper suggested that President Joe Biden could become a "legitimate" target after leaving office, citing the US role in the Israeli assassination of "resistance leaders."

"Our shores have experienced significant retreat, raising concerns that our facilities and ports could be in jeopardy," an Iranian Environmental Protection Organization official, Omid Sedighi, told local media.

"Addressing this issue entails considerable expense, as extensive dredging is required to restore water access to the docks and ports. This poses a substantial threat," he added.

Addressing the challenges faced, Sedighi noted that the country's coastlines have "significantly receded," placing critical infrastructure, such as facilities and ports, at risk. He warned that if the current trend of declining water levels continues, it could lead to the drying up of other wetlands, render docks and ports inaccessible, and create serious issues for coastal power plants. Furthermore, he expressed concern that the situation could also jeopardize shrimp farming operations.

His remarks mirror concerns that Iranian officials have voiced for years. Last year, Iran’s Minister of Interior, Ahmad Vahidi, warned of the Caspian Sea's further decline in the coming decades, while refraining from addressing the regime’s neglect of ecological issues.

Similarly, Ali Salajegheh, head of the Iranian Department of Environment, underscored the ecological challenges posed by a one-meter reduction in the Caspian Sea's water level over the past 4-5 years, noting an average annual decline of 20 centimeters.

However, the predicament transcends Iran's borders. The Caspian Sea is bordered by Iran to the south, Turkmenistan to the southeast, Kazakhstan to the northeast, Russia to the northwest, and Azerbaijan to the southwest.

Scientific studies have revealed that the Caspian Sea's water levels, which have exhibited sharp fluctuations over the past century, have steadily declined since the mid-1990s.

However, since 2005, conditions have deteriorated even further. Russia's Volga River, which constitutes approximately 80 percent of the total water inflow into the Caspian Sea, has been a focal point of blame among the nations concerned with the sea's declining levels.

Earlier this month, expressing deep concern over the "catastrophic" shrinkage of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev discussed the matter with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Last year, Kazakhstani officials declared a state of emergency in response to the recession of the shoreline, with the Environment Minister attributing the primary causes to “climate change as an exogenous factor” and the upstream “regulation” of rivers that feed into the lake, including the Volga and Ural, both originating in Russia.

According to NASA's Earth Observatory, a study utilizing several models projected that the Caspian Sea's water levels could decline by an additional 8 to 30 meters (26 to 98 feet) by 2100 due to climate change. Moreover, human activities such as water use and diversion could contribute to a further 7 meters (23 feet) of water loss. These projections underscore the significant impact of both natural and anthropogenic factors on the future of the Caspian Sea's water levels.

According to a study published in Nature, "a decline by 9–18 meters will mean that the vast northern Caspian shelf, the Turkmen shelf in the southeast, and all coastal areas in the middle and southern Caspian Sea emerge from under the sea surface. In addition, the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay on the eastern margin will be completely desiccated. Overall, the Caspian Sea’s surface area will shrink by 23 percent for a 9 meter and by 34 percent for an 18 meter drop of sea level." Scholar Vali Kaleji emphasizes that to address this critical issue, Caspian coastal nations must prioritize integrated, coordinated, and comprehensive policies and strategies.

Hardliners, reformists, and others, including many in the opposition, generally agree that Israel’s recent killings of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut could not have occurred without Israel infiltrating Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran's security forces at the highest levels.

“It seems that Israel’s infiltration in Iran has become the weak point for both Hamas and Hezbollah. The news suggests that Iranians were involved in both incidents,” a netizen posted on X, blaming the Islamic Republic for “years of poverty and corruption” and for using the security forces to suppress the people at home. “The result has been the significant expansion of Israel’s penetration into the country’s apparatus.”

Lebanese security sources have alleged that an Iranian informant tipped off Israel about Nasrallah’s whereabouts before his assassination in Beirut on Friday.

Ultra-hardliners have concentrated their attacks on Mohammad-Javad Zarif, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s deputy for Strategic Affairs. Either openly or through veiled references using parallels from early Islamic history such as the story of Bin Hajjaj, they accuse Zarif of having assisted Israel in some way in locating and killing Nasrallah and his companions.

Nasr Bin Hajjaj is alleged to have lured Imam Hussain ibn Ali, the third Imam of the Shiites, to Kufa under the guise of friendship, only to betray him and fight against him during the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD, where Hussain was ultimately killed.

"The enemies will dominate us, one after the other, if the roots of Zarif’s thinking are not dried in this country,” another tweet that referred to Nasrallah’s killing said.

Some religious radicals have even tried to justify the intelligence failures of Iran and its allies by claiming supernatural beings must have been involved in the operations.

Hojjat ol-Eslam Mostafa Karami, a Qom seminary teacher claimed in an interview with an online television channel that Israel has been using jinni to spy on Muslim leaders because they have “tamed the jinni” and they “have a long history in this”. A video of the interview was released by some Iranian media Monday and is being widely circulating on social media.

“This level of attacks on Zarif is neither related to caring for the [Iranian] people nor the Hezbollah and Seyed Hassan Nasrallah,” reformist journalist Davoud Heshmati argued in a tweet and claimed ultra-hardliners’ are making these allegations against Zarif because their leader Saeed Jalili lost in the recent presidential elections and they are angry.

Those who accuse ultra-hardliners of having ‘infiltrators’ amongst their ranks argue that the best way for an Israeli infiltrator to hide in plain sight in the Islamic Republic is to imitate the looks and behavior of radicals who vow absolute subservience to Khamenei.

“Spies have the mark of the prayer stone on their foreheads and pretend to love the system!” argued a netizen sympathetic to the opposition, responding to accusations that opposition supporters were spying for Israel to undermine the Islamic Republic. “Since when do enemy spies pose as the official opposition?” he questioned.

The footage of a 2021 interview on CNN Turk has re-emerged on social media, in which former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claims that an intelligence officer appointed to investigate how Israel stole a massive corpus of Iran's nuclear documents in 2018 was an Israeli mole himself.

Ahmadinejad’s supporters who are widely circulating the video on social media implicitly blame Khamenei for Israeli infiltration because, they claim, he refused control over the intelligence ministry to Ahmadinejad more than a decade ago who wanted to purge it of moles.