Iranian police break neck of Afghan teen amid deportation crackdown

While initial assessments had predicted an early attack this week, the latest information says any retaliation may now be postponed, reported Al Arabiya.

It is believed that Iran waited until after Wednesday’s meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah before taking any action.

Iran’s Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani traveled Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, leading a delegation to attend an extraordinary meeting of the Executive Committee of Foreign Ministers of the OIC. The meeting discussed the implications of the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week.

Kani called on Muslim countries to support Iran's right to defend itself against "acts of aggression". Saudi Arabia supported Iran's position, saying the assassination was a "blatant violation" of Iran's sovereignty.

Iran has blamed Israel and the US for the killing of Haniyeh and has vowed to "avenge" his blood, however, the delay in retaliation has raised questions. White House officials said Tuesday that they believe President Joe Biden’s efforts to prevent a war in the Middle East "may be paying off" and "Iran may be reconsidering a plan for major retaliation" following the killing of the Hamas chief in Tehran, according to the Washington Post.

"The Iranian response has been complicated by seeming confusion over the circumstances of Haniyeh’s death. Tehran at first claimed he was killed by an Israeli missile, requiring a similar Iranian response. But officials say that Tehran has concluded privately that he was instead eliminated by a concealed bomb, perhaps prompting a different response," read the article.

Tehran may also be dissuaded by the US show of force this week, and secret White House communications passed via the Swiss embassy in Tehran and the Iranian mission at the United Nations, the report said.

“Iran understands clearly that the US is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people. We have moved a significant amount of military assets to the region to underscore that principle,” a senior administration official told The Washington Post’s David Ignatius.

In another development, German airline giant Lufthansa announced on Wednesday that it will avoid using Iranian and Iraqi airspace until August 13, extending its earlier decision due to high tensions in the Middle East. In addition to this, Lufthansa has extended the suspension of its services to Tel Aviv, Tehran, Beirut, Amman, and Erbil until the same date.

Regional and international reactions

Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Aty expressed concerns about regional stability in a phone call with Bagheri-Kani. Egypt has instructed all its aircraft to avoid Iran's airspace for a three-hour period early Thursday, amid fears of an Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel.

The United States and Australia have denounced Iran's destabilizing behavior, including its support for armed proxies and militant partners. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, along with Australian counterparts, condemned threats to shipping and freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden, stressing the need to defend navigational rights and freedoms.

Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis also highlighted Switzerland’s dedication to prioritizing restraint during a phone call with Bagheri-Kani, emphasizing the need for moderation and diplomacy.

Israeli perspectives

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz emphasized that the election of Yahya Sinwar as the leader of Hamas signals that the Palestinian issue is now significantly controlled by Iran and Hamas. Katz warned of the consequences of Israel withdrawing its military presence in Gaza, noting the regional threats posed by Iran. He proposed a solution of Palestinian self-management in Judea and Samaria, with Israel maintaining control over security and foreign affairs to prevent another Iranian stronghold.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned Hezbollah that further escalation could lead to substantial damage to Lebanon. "As things stand, Nasrallah could lead Lebanon to pay a very, very heavy price. They can't imagine what could happen," he told Israeli troops. Gallant discussed threats posed by Iran and its proxies with his German counterpart Boris Pistorius, calling for global unity against Iran.

This comes as a Hezbollah commander responsible for anti-tank guided missile fire on northern Israel was killed in an air strike earlier Wednesday, according to the IDF. Hassan Fares Jeshi was killed in southern Lebanon, with Israeli fighter jets also striking Hezbollah buildings in Aitaroun.

Iran's stance

Despite the lack of immediate action, Iranian officials continue to keep their rhetoric strong. President Masoud Pezeshkian accused Israel of inciting conflict through its “criminal and terrorist actions in Gaza and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh” during a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday. He criticized the US and Western countries for “supporting these actions instead of condemning them,” stating they have aided in “committing crimes, genocide, and terrorism.” Pezeshkian urged for a ceasefire, emphasizing that Iran is committed to peace and the defense of its interests under international law.

Iranian army commander Abdolrahim Mousavi on Wednesday issued a warning to Israel, asserting that their actions will not go unanswered. "These crimes and assassinations by the Zionist regime will not go unanswered and will receive a definite and decisive response," he said.

In a phone conversation with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Bagheri-Kani also criticized European countries for their passive stance on Haniyeh's assassination, holding the US, UK, and France responsible for what he described as the actions of the sole “malevolent entity” in the region.

The State Department statement said it is looking for "information leading to the identification or location" of the suspects.

The six Iranian officials named in the advisory are linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Cyber-Electronic Command (IRGC-CEC).

They are accused of compromising industrial control systems, specifically targeting the Vision series of programmable logic controllers (PLCs) manufactured by Israel-based Unitronics. These PLCs are widely used in various industries, including water and wastewater, energy, food and beverage, manufacturing, and healthcare.

The men identified include Hamid Reza Lashgarian. head of the IRGC’s cyber-electronic command and a commander in the IRGC-Qods Force.

The officials have been linked to the hacking group CyberAv3ngers. In October, CyberAv3ngers publicly took credit for cyberattacks against Israeli PLCs, and starting in November, they compromised the default credentials in these PLCs across the US, leaving messages on the devices’ digital screens with anti-Israel statements. These compromises often rendered the devices inoperative.

On February 2, the US imposed sanctions on the same six individuals for their “deliberate targeting of critical infrastructure.” A Treasury Department official condemned the attacks as “unconscionable and dangerous,” emphasizing that the US “will not tolerate such actions and will use the full range of our tools and authorities to hold the perpetrators to account.”

The IRGC-CEC was previously sanctioned by the US in 2018 and designated a terror group in 2019.

The individuals were named as Specially Designated Nationals under Executive Order (E.O.) 13224, which targets leaders and officials of terrorist organizations.

The sanctions block all property and interests in property of the designated officials within the US or controlled by US citizens and generally prohibit US citizens from engaging in transactions with them.

Twenty-six prisoners were executed in Ghezelhesar Prison and three were executed in Karaj Central Prison, according to Norway-based Iran Human Rights Organization (HRNGO).

"The Islamic Republic, by exploiting global attention on its tension with Israel, is currently engaged in mass killing prisoners and intensifying the suppression in Iran,” said HRNGO director, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam in a statement on Wednesday.

Of the 29 men executed, 17 were executed for murder charges, seven were on death row for drug-related charges and three on rape charges.

HRNGO also reported that the rights group had received reports of an additional two women being executed on Wednesday but was unable to confirm the report so far.

HRNGO further noted that at least 87 people have been executed in Iran in one month since the presidential elections on July 6. This brings the total number of those executed in 2024 to 338 as of Wednesday.

According to Amnesty International, Iran carried out 853 executions in 2023, marking the highest number in eight years. Amnesty International noted that 64 percent of the executions in 2023 were for crimes that did not warrant the death penalty under international law, including drug-related offences, robbery, and espionage​.

Since the alleged Israeli assassination of Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last week, Iran has threatened to retaliate. Global powers have been intervening to calm tensions as fears rise of an escalation between the two archenemies.

In April, Iran launched its first-ever direct attack on Israel, launching a barrage of 350 missiles, rockets and drones, most of which were intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition.

However, the threats from Tehran say this retaliatory attack would be far worse, while countries such as the US and Russia have been urging calm.

The Egyptian NOTAM, a safety notice issued to pilots and aviation authorities, said Iran’s airspace must be avoided on Thursday from 0100 to 0400 GMT, according to Reuters.

Egypt’s Civil Aviation Ministry reportedly said the notice came after Iran warned all airlines flying over the Iranian territories about 'military exercises' on Wednesday and Thursday.

However, Iran has not issued a NOTAM for its entire airspace, and just warned pilots against flying below 12,000 feet, which is below cruising altitude of civilian airlines, in western Iran.

What prompted the Egyptian notice has not been revealed amid a looming war between Iran and Israel after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, but the Iranian government is blaming its adversary.

On X, the OPS group, a membership organization that shares information about international flight operations, wrote "such a NOTAM from Egypt is very unusual. It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of air space disruptions - at the same time, there may be another reason."

Is this the window of attack?

Many are left wondering if this could be the window that Iran will use to retaliate against Israel?

Experts advise caution on reaching conclusions just yet. The answer, they said, is not a simple yes or no, but rather a myriad of reasons.

"No one has a clear sense of Iran's timing for a response," said Bessma Momani, a Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo in Canada.

Momani said it would be be highly unusual for Iran to share information of a potential strike on Israel with Egypt.

"Regional actors are trying to get prepared and to signal their preparedness but I doubt Egypt would be privy to any information on when or if Iran and its allies plan on responding to Israel with a military attack," she added.

"Cordial but not warm," is how Momani described Egypt-Iran relations. Momani is also a Senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance and Innovation (CIGI) and sits on the National Security Transparency Advisory Group to advise the government of Canada.

Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran, said the specific time and date of the NOTAM doesn't necessarily indicate a potential launch of strikes.

He said in past operations, the Islamic Republic has launched missiles and drones from western Iran.

"I thought it was a very specific window of time, but it could mean a lot of different things. It could mean a military drill. It could mean preparations for an attack. There are a lot of different ways to interpret it, so it's hard to know," said Brodsky.

The Egyptian NOTAM is not the only notice related to Iran-Israel tensions. Jordan has also asked all airlines landing at its airports to carry 45 minutes of reserve fuel amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.

The UK also issued a NOTAM advising UK-registered air operators to avoid entering the Beirut Flight Information Region (the Lebanese airspace) from 16:40 (UTC) August 7, 2024, to November 4, 2024, due to potential risks from military activity in the region.

The NOTAM comes amid escalating fears of a conflict between Israel and Iran, which could involve Lebanon, particularly through the involvement of Iran-backed Hezbollah.

Iran has been threatening to launch a direct missile attack against Israel to avenge the July 31 assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, despite calls for restraint by its friends and foes. However, this desire for vengeance is apparently not shared by all high-ranking officials in Tehran, as there are voices expressing concern about the potential repercussions.

In a recent meeting with Khamenei, President Pezeshkian urged the 85-year-old ruler Khamenei to prevent any direct Iranian attack on Israel to avoid escalating tensions into an unwanted war, the informed sources told Iran International. This potential conflict, Pezeshkian warned, could severely disrupt his presidency and lead to significant problems. 

Pezeshkian cautioned that a decision by Israel to launch harsh retaliatory attack against Iran's national infrastructure and energy resources could cripple the Iranian economy and potentially lead to the country's collapse.

Despite the grave warnings, sources said, Khamenei remained noncommittal during the session, neither supporting nor opposing Pezeshkian’s concerns.

Pezeshkian further warned about the rhetoric and actions of senior military commanders that could drag the country into war, noting that he faces relentless pressure from factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who demand a strong military response against Israel, regardless of the significant social and economic costs involved, said the sources who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the case.

The president asserted that his opposition to military action is rooted in national interest and not due to a lack of knowledge or experience in security and military matters, as claimed by hardliners. He stressed that initiating a war with Israel would make economic recovery and bridging the already deep divide between the Islamic Republic and its citizens impossible, severely damaging Iran's international standing, which the country desperately needs to improve.

IRGC Chief-Commander Hossein Salami on Monday said Israel will learn a lesson once it receives Iran's "severe response". Iranian authorities also told Arab countries that the country no longer cares whether its attack on Israel will trigger an all-out war in the Middle East, a report by The Wall Street Journal said.

Last week, a close aide to Pezeshkian told The Telegraph that the security lapse that resulted in Ismail Haniyeh's killing in Iran "may have been an intentional bid by the IRGC to harm the new president’s reputation. “No unharmed brain can accept that this happened by accident, especially on Pezeshkian’s first day in office,” he said. “He may have to go to war with Israel in his first few days in office and it’s all because of the IRGC.”

The president’s private plea for restraint contrasts with his public statements affirming Iran’s right to respond to Israel’s killing of Haniyeh, though he has largely avoided using inflammatory language and even told world leaders Tehran does not seek escalation.

In comments on Wednesday, Pezeshkian made it clear that he would not question the policies dictated by the Supreme Leader in public and in his meetings with foreign officials. “At the inauguration and swearing-in ceremonies, I was told to speak about the country's problems, but the fourteenth government does not permit itself to criticize Iran in front of other nations."

Pezeshkian said in a Monday meeting with top Russian security official Sergei Shoigu that "Iran is by no means seeking to expand the scope of the crisis in the region, but this regime will certainly receive a response for its crimes and arrogance." Shoigu was visiting Tehran to convey Vladimir Putin’s message of de-escalation to Iranian authorities.

The Iranian president also told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday that “Iran reserves the right to give an appropriate response” to Israel’s killing of Ismail Haniyeh, without repeating the harshly worded statements of the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader and military authorities. 

In his recent meeting with Khamenei, the newly elected president emphasized the importance of “citizens' trust in their elected representatives”, highlighting the low voter turnout in the recent presidential election as an indicator of deep-seated distrust, the sources told Iran International.

Iran’s 2024 presidential election -- held almost a year early, after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May – witnessed the lowest-ever voter turnout rate in the history of the Islamic Republic.

More than 16 million voted for Pezeshkian, according to official figures, many in the hope of preventing hardliners from heading all three branches of government, even though Pezeshkian himself announced he will be implementing the policies dictated by Ali Khamenei.