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Iran-US Relations Key to Challenges Facing the Next Iranian President

Jun 27, 2024, 20:36 GMT+1Updated: 16:30 GMT+0

Iran's relations with the United States appear to be at the heart of the country's plethora of issues, as highlighted by state television and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's selection of six candidates to replace former President Ebrahim Raisi.

The last two rounds of presidential election debates, aired on state television on Monday and Tuesday, revealed a consensus among all candidates. They agreed that the nation's most urgent expectation from the government and the new President is to solve the financial problems that have persisted for many years, especially since 2018.

The next most urgent expectation appears to be the lifting of sanctions.

Both of these expectations are fundamentally related to the country's foreign policy crisis, and more accurately regarding Iran's ties with the US.

While broadcasting the monologues that state TV claims are "debates" among the candidates, the broadcaster stated that viewers have indicated the most urgent problems they expect the next president to solve are, in order of significance:

  • Economic problems 73.5%
  • Improving situation of welfare 26%
  • Tackling unemployment 25.7%
  • Tackling financial corruption 25.6%
  • Improving relations with other countries 19.3%
  • Lifting the sanctions 15.7%
  • Lifting the filtering [on the Internet] 6.6%
  • Negotiating with the United States 6.5%
  • Easing dress code enforcement 5.8%
  • Reducing cost of medical treatment 5.1%
  • Other 4.4%
  • No response 3%

Among these expectations, economic and financial demands include solving economic problems, improving welfare, reducing unemployment, addressing financial corruption, and lowering the cost of medical treatment.

On the other hand, the expectations of lifting sanctions and negotiating with the US pertain to foreign policy and relations with the US.

Obviously, the improvement of the financial situation depends on resolving foreign policy issues and maintaining ties with the US. The mention of improving relations with "other countries" is also a euphemism for resuming ties with the US.

Lifting internet filtering and easing the enforcement of the dress code (hijab) are two social issues that highlight the difference between the lifestyle the nation prefers and the one dictated by Islamic ideology.

Nearly all the candidates, even the most anti-US one, Saeed Jalili, agreed in their remarks on state television that negotiations with Washington are necessary, even if former President Donald Trump returns to power.

In the meantime, many were misled to believe that a 2019 video of Trump speaking during a news conference with the Japanese leader indicated a new development, suggesting Trump was eager to maintain ties with the current leadership of the Islamic Republic.

Some netizens went so far as to suggest that the US leadership does not care about Iranians' political demands and is ready to compromise. Iranian leaders seemed pleased with this incorrect conclusion, which was based on fake news.

Some social media users opined, however, that it was most certainly not possible for Khamenei to allow a compromise with Trump, given that he was the man who ordered the killing of former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.

Be that as it may, the call made by all six candidates for negotiating with the US was in sharp contradiction with Supreme Leader Khamenei, who said on Tuesday that candidates should not turn to the United States and should instead do business with Russia and China.

If the candidates are serious about negotiating with the US to improve the populace’s financial situation, they need to think twice if they wish to remain loyal and obedient to Khamenei.

This would also indicate that Iran’s relations with the US are likely to remain a central dilemma for the Islamic Republic's problems for at least another four years.

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Fate of 'Resistance Front' Tied to Islamic Republic's Fate: Hezbollah Chief

Jun 27, 2024, 20:34 GMT+1

The fate of the so-called "Resistance Front" is tied to that of its main sponsor, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Secretary General of Lebanon's Hezbollah said.

"Today the Islamic Republic does not just decide the Iranian nation's path... It rather decides the path and fates of regional nations and Resistance," Hassan Nasrallah said in a video message to a ceremony commemorating the 40th day since the death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi.

"The future of the region hinges on the developments of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he added, calling on Iranian people to elect "the right president" in the Friday's election.

The "Resistance" refers to the alliance of armed militant groups sponsored by Iran, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi Shiite militias.

Established in 1982 by Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), Hezbollah is the cornerstone of the Tehran-backed alliance hostile to Israel and the United States.

In his Thursday speech, Nasrallah also offered condolences to Raisi's family, praising Tehran's response to the chopper crash that killed him last month.

Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash on May 19. Both Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian were considered the "driving force" behind what proxy leaders describe as "the achievements of the Resistance Front", including the October 7 attack on Israel or the Iraqi militants' attacks on American interests.

However, the Islamic Republic's policy of supporting its regional armed proxies is not controlled by the Executive Branch of the government and is expected to remain unchanged regardless of who becomes the president.

US Slams Tehran's Silencing of Exiled Journalists, Especially Iran International

Jun 27, 2024, 17:26 GMT+1

The United States ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Council has expressed concern over Iranian transnational repression targeting media outlets, particularly Iran International.

In a statement released on Wednesday, Michèle Taylor condemned attempts to silence journalists “through physical harm, unlawful surveillance, including with commercial spyware, and forced exile.”

The statement addressed the concerns raised by Irene Khan, the UN Special Rapporteur on freedom of opinion and expression. Khan documented an alarming rise in journalists being forced into exile and facing violence. The trend, she argued, coincides with the worldwide growth of authoritarianism and suppression of media freedoms.

Unfortunately, exile does not guarantee journalists' safety. Taylor emphasized the urgent need for more significant support for journalists in exile, highlighting their exposure to grave risks such as assassination attempts, assaults, enforced disappearances, and retaliation against their families. She also underscored the escalating use of digital transnational repression in recent years.

The report comes less than three months after Iran International TV host Pouria Zeraati survived a stabbing outside his London residence as he left for work, sustaining leg injuries. Shortly following the incident, the London Metropolitan Police announced that due to prior threats targeting journalists in Persian-language media, the case was assigned to specialized officers from the Met's counter-terrorism division.

Iran International has faced relentless threats from the Iranian government, with numerous journalists facing grave threats in 2022 and 2023. In March, a leaked document disclosed that Tehran’s Revolutionary Court had convicted 44 foreign-based journalists and media activists in absentia two years earlier on "propaganda against the government," including Aliasghar Ramezanpour, executive editor of Iran International.

In 2022, escalating threats prompted Iran International to relocate its offices temporarily from London to Washington, as domestic security services could no longer guarantee the safety of its staff. Shortly before the incident, Iran's intelligence minister labeled Iran International a terrorist organization, opening the door to further actions against the network and its journalists.

In May, Iran International was honored with the 2024 Geneva Summit Courage Award for its fearless reporting on the daily abuses of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Iran's Oil and Gas Workers' Strike Grows: 20,000 Workers, 110 Companies

Jun 27, 2024, 16:57 GMT+1

A nationwide strike by contract workers in Iran's oil and gas industry that began last week has now spread to over 110 companies, involving more than 20,000 workers.

Launched by the unofficial Council for Organizing Oil Contract-Workers' Protests, the strike began on June 19. The workers are demanding the removal of intermediary contractors, wage increases, a 14-days-on, 14-days-off work schedule, improved dormitory conditions, and enhanced safety measures. The Council has warned that the strikes will intensify if these demands are not met.

Last week, the strike included 8,000 oil contract workers from over 60 contracting companies.

With the number of strikers now at 20,000, the protest action is rapidly gaining momentum.

These protests are part of a wave of labor unrest in Iran over delayed wages, low pay, and layoffs that have intermittently disrupted many industrial sectors since 2018.

In the past decade, many components of the oil and gas industry have been farmed out to influential regime insiders as intermediary contractors, who underpay workers and force them to work in difficult conditions. Traditionally, oil workers enjoyed the best salaries and benefits in Iran.

Ten Controversial Issues Raised in Iran's Presidential Debates

Jun 27, 2024, 16:51 GMT+1
•
Majid Mohammadi

A significant portion of the Iranian population, reportedly up to two-thirds, perceive the meticulously orchestrated presidential elections as a "circus" and regard the debates as a boring and tedious spectacle.

As a result, a significant majority of the populace will more likely disregard the electoral process entirely.

Despite the five poorly managed debates, rival candidates brought to light ten critical issues that had never been covered by the state's TV and radio stations. These issues pertain directly to people's livelihoods, rights, freedoms, and economic development. Successive governments in Iran have either officially denied, ignored, or relegated these controversial and scandalous matters to the back burner.

The Controversial Crescent Contract

This controversial contract for the daily sale of 500 million cubic feet of gas from the Salman oil field was signed in 2002 between Crescent Petroleum Company (CPC) and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) during the tenure of Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh in President Mohammad Khatami’s administration.

In a landmark ruling, the International Court of Arbitration in Paris ordered NIOC to pay $607.5 million to the UAE's Dana Gas Company, an affiliate of Crescent Petroleum, due to Iran’s failure to deliver according to the contract.

During the debate, hardliner candidate Saeed Jalili claimed that this case had been archived in the office of fellow candidate, cleric Mohammad Pourmohammadi, when he was head of the General Inspection Organization. Pourmohammadi, in turn, blamed Jalili for halting the proceedings.

In fact, hardliners have been blamed for numerous corruption scandals in recent years and they aimed at highlighting mistakes and scandals that took place during so-called reformist administrations. This belied Jalili's quest to bring out the Crescent issue.

COVID Vaccine Ban During Pandemic

In the debates, other hardliner candidates, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani and Ghazizadeh Hashemi accused the administration of former President Hassan Rouhani, who was in power during the pandemic, of delaying the purchase of the coronavirus vaccine.

They failed, however, to mention that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had banned the entry of Western vaccines into the country in January 2021, when no other vaccine existed yet. Due to this delay, it is approximated that between 70,000 and 100,000 people died. Total casualties are estimated to be between 160,000 and 300,000, based on official and unofficial counts, respectively.

Both Zakani and Hashemi have since dropped out of the presidential race.

Internet Shutdowns Amid Popular Protests

While all the candidates in the debates expressed disapproval of the state-sanctioned filtering and blocking of the Internet, some used the opportunity to blame and attack each other's roles in these actions.

The discussion at one point focused on the internet shutdown during the authorities' crackdown on the November 2019 protests, known as 'Bloody November.' These widespread protests initially erupted across Iran in response to fuel price hikes but quickly escalated into anti-regime demonstrations.

Candidates opposing then-President Hassan Rouhani attributed the internet shutdown to his administration. The only pro-reform candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, countered by conveying that the shutdown was approved by the Supreme National Security Council, implicating senior figures and candidates like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili in the decision-making process.

The 2019 Mahshahr Massacre

The Mahshahr protests in November 2019 began peacefully, with residents of this oil city in Khuzestan Province setting up roadblocks to protest. In response, the National Security Council, led by Ali Shamkhani, deployed an IRGC commando brigade armed with tanks, heavy weapons, and a military helicopter.

IRGC forces targeted protesters with heavy machine guns and helicopter fire, indiscriminately shooting at civilians. Many fled to nearby reed fields for shelter, but the IRGC continued their assault, resulting in numerous deaths, including many youths. A journalist described the scene as if the marshes were being cut through with a sickle.

During the debates, Ghazizadeh Hashemi acknowledged and justified the shootings in the reed fields, but failed to mention that over a hundred people were killed for simply protesting by creating traffic jams on a suburban road.

The 1988 Massacre

In an interview amid his campaign, cleric and prosecutor Mostafa Pourmohammadi defended and downplayed his role in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. As a member of the "Death Committee" in Tehran’s Evin prison, Pourmohammadi implicitly confessed: "In a period, I had to be in the most difficult and bitter position against the hypocrites and be strong against the infidels.” The mention of "infidels" is a reference to members of the opposition group Mojahedin (MEK), who were targeted during the purges.

Up to 5,000 political prisoners serving their prison sentences were murdered in 1988. Their bodies were secretly buried in isolated or mass graves.

Pourmohammadi described the massacre as "the project of the Islamic Republic, the difficult moments of the military, a major conflict." Contrary to the popular belief that there was only one death panel, Pourmohammadi revealed that 30 death panels managed the massacres around the country.

The Debsh Tea Embezzlement

The Debsh Tea Embezzlement case is arguably the biggest corruption case in the Islamic Republic’s young history.

Embroiling key Islamic Republic figures, the scandal involved the Debsh Agriculture and Industrial Group misappropriating $3.37 billion in government funds meant for tea and machinery imports by selling $1.4 billion of the currency on the black market, fraudulently labeling low-grade tea, and re-importing cheaper Iranian tea for profit.

The embezzlement took place during both the Hassan Rouhani and Ebrahim Raisi administrations.

Despite initial reports and promises to address the issue, it became one of several cases that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had previously ordered "not to be followed." Consequently, the case has yet to go to court.

The Murder a Former Mayor’s Wife

During the debate, Ghazizadeh responded to Pezeshkian's protest against the violation of women's rights by bringing up Mohammad Ali Najafi, a former Tehran mayor and Minister of Science in the Rouhani administration.

Najafi was sentenced to death for killing his wife, but was released later after he had his life “spared” by her family.

Ghazizadeh criticized the candidates from the authoritarian faction for their support of Najafi, highlighting their actions: "When the Minister of Science in the Rouhani administration killed his wife in such a horrible way, why did they go and support him? They got consent from her family and overturned the court verdict. Wasn't she a woman?"

JCPOA, FATF, Sanctions

The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and the regime's accession to financial and banking treaties have been sources of serious disagreement between political factions in Iran.

The authoritarian faction accuses the reformists of capitulating to Western demands, while the so-called reformists accuse their opponents of exploiting the sanctions for their own benefit.

During the election campaign, former President Rouhani claimed that the opposing faction caused $300 billion in damage to the country by passing the Strategic Act to Cancel the Sanctions.

The Zahedan Massacre’s Bloody Friday

On Friday, September 30, 2022, amid nationwide protests, security forces opened fire on demonstrators during the Friday prayer protests in Zahedan, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. This occurred in the aftermath of Mahsa Jina Amini's killing, while in the custody of the "morality police."

The government has not officially accepted responsibility for the massacre, instead attempting to placate the victims' families with blood money. Pezeshkian criticized the government's handling of the situation and its treatment of the people of Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

Attack on Embassies

Since 1979, the Islamist regime’s authorities have either directly participated in or supported attacks on foreign embassies. Notable incidents include the attacks on the American, British, Danish, and Saudi embassies, which have caused hundreds of billions in damages to the country by disrupting normal relations and trade. During the debates, candidates blamed each other, ultimately indicating that the regime was behind and supportive of these attacks.

While the candidates did address the aforementioned topics—mainly to blame each other and shift responsibility—many other critical issues were conspicuously absent from the debates.

These unaddressed issues include the murder of Mahsa Jina Amini, the killing and blinding of hundreds of protesters in 2022, the regime’s role in the October 7 Hamas attacks, the chemical assaults on over 230 schools across 25 provinces in 2022-2023, and the expenditure of tens of billions of dollars on the regime's regional expansion plans, terrorism, banditry, and global hostage-taking – just to name a few.

IRGC Commander Praises Ex-FM as Voice of 'Resistance Front'

Jun 27, 2024, 15:44 GMT+1

The commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, Esmail Ghaani (Qaani), has praised former Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian for being the voice of Iran's armed proxies abroad.

On Thursday, Ghaani said, “While everyone was trying to silence the voice of resistance and the young people of the resistance were defending themselves in the battlefield, someone spoke for them on the international stage. That person was Amir-Abdollahian, the voice of the resistance.”

The Quds Force commander’s comments come amid growing concerns of an all-out Israel-Hezbollah war. Alongside the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the heavily armed, Iran-backed Hezbollah group has been exchanging fire with Israel for over eight months.

The Quds Force is IRGC's extra-territorial wing, which controls all armed groups supported by the Islamic Republic. Its former commander was Qasem Soleimani, a notorious operator who oversaw the expansion of Iran's armed proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere. He was targeted in a US airstrike in 2020 in Baghdad.

Ghaani made his remarks during the fortieth-day anniversary of Amir-Abdollahian's death. He was killed alongside former President Ebrahim Raisi, in a freak helicopter crash last month. The incident has triggered a snap election to be held on Friday.

While Iran continues its anti-Western and anti-Israeli policy, Ghaani reiterated the Supreme Leader’s red line about negotiating with the US. “Today, as you prepare to elect a new president, it is crucial to choose someone who will continue the path of martyr Raisi and the heroic figures who stood firm and acted decisively,” he stated.

“These men fought against the US and demonstrated that actions can be taken without relying on the US. Be aware that those advocating for solutions through relations with the US are unwilling to fight bravely if given authority; When you speak from a position of authority and power, even the US will be compelled to yield."

On Tuesday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei subtly indicated his favored presidential candidate by firmly rejecting negotiations with the US.

He asserted, "Some of our politicians believe they must align themselves with one power or another, or that the path to progress necessarily leads through the US; this is a grave misconception. Those who look beyond our borders fail to recognize and value our inherent capacities; naturally, they lack the vision to utilize them."

It essentially disqualifies three of the four approved presidential candidates; Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, and Masoud Pezeshkian.

Pezeshkian, in particular, is seen as disadvantaged due to his association with former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the architect of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), who advocates for dialogue with other countries, including the US, to lift current sanctions.