The US-Iran standoff is hardening around the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington saying it can sustain maritime pressure indefinitely and Tehran signaling readiness for a prolonged confrontation and more offensive operations.
The United States is preparing to send the USS George Washington to the Middle East in a previously scheduled rotation, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday that rotating ships would allow the US Navy to maintain its blockade for as long as necessary.
“Indefinitely the United States Navy can maintain a blockade like that because we'll rotate ships in and out, as we have, and we'll continue to,” Hegseth told reporters.
The George Washington is expected to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials. The Lincoln was redirected to the Middle East in January ahead of the US war against Iran and has now spent more than 250 days deployed.
CENTCOM also announced Thursday the creation of its first multinational, multi-domain attack drone task force, building on the use of one-way unmanned systems during Operation Epic Fury and strikes on Iranian port facilities in July.
Task Force Falcon Strike will use one-way attack drones in the air, on the surface and below it, with US Special Operations Command Central personnel leading the unit and regional partners being formally invited to join.
Iran signals offensive posture
In Tehran, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said Thursday that Khamenei’s strategy was to shift the war to an offensive posture if Iran’s conditions were not met.
That emphasis was also reflected in Khamenei’s appointment of six senior military commanders earlier this week.
His decree naming Ahmad Vahidi commander-in-chief of the IRGC instructed him to strengthen the force’s capabilities for “maximum deterrence” and maintain readiness for “powerful offensive operations against the enemy.”
IRGC Navy commander Ali Azmaei, also formally appointed this week, said Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and that no movement through it escaped the force’s notice.
Rasoul Sanaei-Rad, a senior military official, said Iran was preparing for “worst-case” war scenarios and needed offensive capabilities alongside defensive ones. “Our fighters have their fingers on the trigger,” he said, adding that Iran would seek to impose a much heavier defeat if attacked again.
All about Hormuz
Hormuz remains the immediate test of those competing claims of endurance.
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said Thursday that no commercial ship or oil tanker could safely pass through the waterway without Tehran’s permission and oversight.
The United States, meanwhile, says its blockade remains in force. CENTCOM said that as of Wednesday, US forces had redirected 59 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two others while enforcing what it calls its “steel wall blockade” against Iran.
Off the water, diplomatic contacts have continued despite the military buildup.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Washington Thursday against what he called a “bigger miscalculation” over the Strait of Hormuz, while Vice President Majid Ansari said war and negotiations were “complementary” and that Iran would pursue its objectives in the waterway and the wider region.
The parallel military and diplomatic tracks have yet to produce a breakthrough over Hormuz. Instead, Thursday’s statements suggested both sides are preparing for the possibility that the standoff will last.
Davoud Rangi, vice chair of the chamber’s Import Management Committee, said Iran receives around 400 to 500 ships carrying essential goods each year, making any attempt to replace maritime imports with overland transport impractical.
“Mobilizing this number of trucks is far-fetched for us, and even if they were mobilized, transportation costs would rise sharply,” Rangi told Eghtesad News on Thursday.
He said Iranian authorities should not count on land corridors as a substitute for the country’s southern ports because neighboring states could restrict border traffic at short notice and the routes lack the capacity to handle the necessary volume of goods.
Neighboring governments could close a border “with a single order,” he said, adding that the justification would not necessarily have to be political or military and could instead involve quarantine or veterinary restrictions of the kind Iran has faced before.
Rangi said land routes through countries such as Turkey or Pakistan might accommodate around one million tons of cargo annually, but could not come close to replacing Iran’s maritime trade.
“At a small scale, perhaps one million tons of cargo a year could be brought in through Turkey or Pakistan, but 23 million tons, or even half of that, is simply inconceivable,” he said.
The warning comes as Iran’s southern ports remain under pressure from the war. IRGC attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated regional tensions in recent weeks, while the United States intensified economic pressure on Tehran through a maritime blockade.
The outlook for negotiations between Tehran and Washington over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, with concerns also growing over a possible expansion of the regional conflict.
Negotiations seen as only viable way out
Rangi said negotiations and a reduction in military tensions were the only practical route to lifting the blockade and restoring the regular flow of essential goods into Iran.
Attempting to rely instead on overland corridors would impose heavy losses on importers, he said, because of both limited capacity and sharply higher transportation costs.
The blockade is also complicating Iranian exports, particularly containerized trade.
Rangi said vessels carrying bulk commodities could more easily be allowed to pass, while container ships pose a greater problem because individual containers cannot practically be separated from the rest of a ship’s cargo.
“We are extremely vulnerable on the southern route, in Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, but along the northern and western corridors the situation is much better for exports than for imports,” he said.
Iran’s economy has already come under mounting pressure in recent months from the continuing conflict, tighter sanctions and a sharp decline in the value of the rial.
Surging inflation and falling purchasing power have further strained household finances, making essential goods increasingly difficult to afford for a large part of the population.
Analysts disagree over how directly Tehran is involved and what is driving the Houthis back into action after largely sitting out the Iran war. But whether Tehran is directing them or benefiting from decisions they make independently, renewed Houthi activity puts additional pressure on Iran's adversaries, particularly Saudi Arabia.
On Tuesday, the Houthis fired missiles at the Tanzania-flagged cargo ship Tihamah in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, killing four crew members and two members of the government-allied National Resistance Forces, according to Yemeni authorities.
Later on Tuesday, the Houthi-affiliated Al-Masirah network said the group targeted another vessel carrying what it described as Saudi “military equipment” in the Bab el-Mandeb.
Houthis pursue their own war
The Houthis' return to action appears rooted first in their own calculations inside Yemen.
Kamran Bokhari, a senior resident fellow at the Middle East Policy Council and strategic forecaster, describes Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance as a corporate brand in which some groups operate more like Iranian-controlled subsidiaries, while the Houthis resemble an independent franchise.
“They'll come in and participate in a conflict and they'll act as and when they see that it's in their interest to do so,” Bokhari told Iran International. “They're not like, you know, Iran says jump and they say how high?”
For months, that interest appeared to lie in staying out of the Iran war while its trajectory remained uncertain.
The calculation began to change following a confrontation involving an Iranian aircraft bound for Houthi-controlled territory. Saudi Arabia struck a Yemeni airfield after the aircraft attempted to land, helping trigger a renewed cycle of attacks between the Houthis and Riyadh.
The escalation also comes amid growing activity by Saudi-backed government forces and UAE-backed southern separatists inside Yemen.
“It's all domestic, is what I'm trying to say. It has nothing to do with Iran,” Bokhari said of the immediate Houthi calculation.
But that domestic struggle is unfolding in a regional environment transformed by the Iran war.
Iranian disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has already increased pressure on Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states. Renewed Houthi activity around Bab el-Mandeb means Riyadh increasingly has to contend with threats around two critical waterways.
Saudi Arabia is also trying to build a stronger security architecture around itself. The recently signed Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish defense pact could give the kingdom greater regional support as it confronts those threats.
That may give the Houthis an incentive to press Riyadh now.
“The Houthis want to be able to extract concessions from the Saudis before the grid goes up, if you will,” Bokhari said.
Their ultimate objective, he argues, remains establishing themselves as Yemen's dominant political and military power and forcing Riyadh to accept that they cannot simply be eliminated.
Iran benefits
But the Houthis' pursuit of their own objectives does not mean Tehran is a bystander.
Fatima Al-Asrar, a Yemen and Iran specialist, sees the renewed Houthi pressure as increasingly intertwined with Iran's broader strategy against the United States.
“Of course, they [Iran] see it as an extension to them. They're no longer hiding it,” Al-Asrar told Iran International, pointing to Iranian rhetoric linking pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
She said Tehran is closely watching growing US fatigue with the Iran war and sees the approaching midterm elections as an opportunity to increase pressure on Washington.
“They're very transparent, very calculating, and they're using the Houthis on that front in order to press their advantage,” she said.
New reporting from Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat raises the possibility of a more direct Iranian operational role.
Citing Yemeni security sources, the newspaper reported on Tuesday that IRGC officers are overseeing aspects of the Houthi escalation and that an Iranian official, Ali Mohammad Rezaei, is supervising an operations room managing military and security affairs in Houthi-controlled territory. Iranian officers have also helped establish additional missile and drone launch positions, according to the report.
Iran International has not independently verified the claims.
What will this lead to?
In July of this year, US President Donald Trump has warned Washington would hold Tehran responsible for renewed Houthi attacks, describing the group as an Iranian “Surrogate and/or Proxy” and threatening military punishment against both.
But retired Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe, who served for 27 years and commanded four warships, told Iran International that he doubts Trump will want to launch another major military campaign against the Houthis.
“He definitely doesn't want to be embroiled on a second tangent here,” Sharpe told Iran International.
Bab el-Mandeb also does not carry the same strategic weight as the Strait of Hormuz, Sharpe said, because ships have alternative routes, albeit at considerably greater cost and distance.
Yet Iran can still benefit.
Greater Houthi disruption could complicate shipping and potentially force the United States and its partners to devote resources to another strategic waterway.
“I think they'll be pleased,” Sharpe said of Tehran. “If it does draw away resources, US resources from the Gulf of Oman, then that's in Iran's favor.”
