US aims to bring Iran into global economy through 'grand bargain' - Vance
US Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday Washington aims to “make Iran thrive” and integrate it into the global economy as part of what he described as a “Trumpian grand bargain” proposal.
Speaking at a Turning Point Action event at Georgia, Vance said the goal would be to make Iran economically prosperous and bring it into the world economy “in a way it hasn’t been” in decades, adding that negotiations would continue in an effort to reach an agreement he said would benefit all sides.
"Despite decades of mistrust between Washington and Tehran, both sides appeared willing to pursue a deal," Vance added. "The US delegation was instructed by President Donald Trump to negotiate in good faith."
Vance said talks would continue, adding that the gap between the two sides cannot be resolved overnight.
Iran’s IRGC Intelligence said on Tuesday that it is seeing what it called “widespread frustration and hopelessness among US troops in the region.”
Citing assessments and field data, it blamed the situation on repeated Iranian missile and drone strikes on bases, Washington officials ignoring reports, frequent relocations, unstable conditions, and constant plan changes by the US president and defense secretary.
“In the war’s first month, 734 resignations were filed from bases in three Persian Gulf countries, spanning all ranks. Senior commanders say soldier losses are acceptable; preventing captures is the red line,” the post said on X.
The US Senate is set to vote as soon as Wednesday on a Democratic-led effort to limit President Donald Trump’s war powers over the Iran conflict, Reuters reported.
Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said Congress been sidelined during the war and vowed to keep bringing similar resolutions as fighting continues.
The move comes amid repeated Democratic attempts to require congressional approval for continued US military action in Iran.
The US Treasury has warned banks in the Middle East and East Asia to halt Iran-linked transactions or face potential sanctions, signaling a stepped-up enforcement push targeting the financial networks that move Tehran’s oil revenues.
After the US military blockade targeting vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports, the Trump administration on Tuesday stepped up pressure with a financial offensive aimed at the banks and front-company networks that keep Iranian oil revenue moving.
In a post on X late Tuesday, the Treasury Department said it was “moving aggressively with Economic Fury, maintaining maximum pressure on Iran.”
The department warned that foreign financial institutions should be on notice, saying it is prepared to use “the full range of available tools and authorities” and is “prepared to deploy secondary sanctions against foreign financial institutions that continue to support Iran’s activities.”
This also puts greater pressure on jurisdictions that have quietly functioned as financial corridors for Iran’s sanctions-evasion networks.
Banks in the Persian Gulf, Hong Kong and China now face a stark choice: continue facilitating Iran-linked flows and risk losing access to the dollar system or cut those ties before Treasury acts.
That marks a significant escalation.
The maritime blockade was designed to squeeze Iran’s physical oil exports.
This new move targets the financial arteries behind them.
The money trail behind the shadow fleet
According to a Treasury letter shared with Al-Monitor, Washington has evidence that banks in the UAE, Oman, Hong Kong and China allowed Iranian funds linked to illicit activities to move through their systems.
This appears to be the first step toward imposing secondary sanctions, a measure that could cut those institutions off from the US financial system.
That would sharply raise the cost of doing business with Iran far beyond the tankers themselves.
The Treasury letter states that Iran processed at least $9 billion through US correspondent accounts in 2024 using front companies, especially in Hong Kong and the UAE and warned that similar activity continued after 2024.
For Tehran, this is potentially as serious as the naval pressure in Hormuz.
Even if cargoes still find ways to leave Iranian waters through spoofed AIS signals, ship-to-ship transfers or shadow fleet workarounds, the proceeds still need to land somewhere.
That is the vulnerability Washington now appears to be targeting.
The waiver clock is now ticking
Treasury also confirmed that the short-term authorization allowing the sale of Iranian oil already stranded at sea is set to expire in the coming days and “will not be renewed.”
Reuters separately reported the waiver will expire on April 19, tightening pressure on cargoes that had been temporarily allowed to move.
That creates a second countdown alongside the naval blockade.
The first clock is storage. The second is finance.
Cargoes that remain offshore may soon face not only delivery risk, but payment risk as well.
That could hit the shadow fleet where it hurts most: not whether it can move the oil, but whether anyone can safely pay for it.
This also puts greater pressure on jurisdictions that have quietly functioned as financial corridors for Iran’s sanctions-evasion networks.
Banks in the Persian Gulf, Hong Kong and China now face a stark choice: continue facilitating Iran-linked flows and risk losing access to the dollar system or cut those ties before Treasury acts.
Iran is considering a short-term pause in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a potential US blockade and jeopardizing a new round of peace talks, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing a person familiar with Tehran’s deliberations.
The potential move reflects efforts to avoid immediate escalation at a sensitive diplomatic moment as Washington and Tehran coordinate logistics for another face-to-face meeting, the report said.
“If Iran does indeed pause shipments it would be a sign its government too seeks de-escalation and to avoid the resumption of the hot war,” said Rachel Ziemba, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, as cited by Bloomberg.
War damage to Iran’s economy has reached $270 billion in 40 days, equivalent to roughly $3,000 per person, according to official figures, with losses expected to grow as trade disruptions deepen under a US blockade of Iranian ports.
Fatemeh Mohajerani, the spokesperson for the Iranian government, said on Tuesday losses from the US-Israeli military campaign are estimated at around $270 billion.
The New York Times, citing three Iranian officials and two economists, reported that early estimates broadly align with that figure, placing the damage at roughly $300 billion or higher.
Preliminary estimates by the US-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies also suggest Iran absorbed roughly $150–$300 billion in economic damage.
Using a population of about 92 million, the lower estimate of $150 billion translates to roughly $1,600 per person, rising to nearly $3,250 per person under the higher estimate.
These figures reflect national wealth lost through destruction, halted production and disrupted trade.
Iran’s central bank has warned President Masoud Pezeshkian that rebuilding the country’s war-damaged economy could take more than a decade, sources familiar with internal deliberations told Iran International.
In a stark assessment delivered to the president in recent days, senior economic officials said the damage inflicted during the 40-day war with the United States and Israel—combined with Iran’s already fragile economic situation—could take up to 12 years to repair.
Industrial sectors bear largest losses
Petrochemicals account for the largest share of damage. Iran’s petrochemical sector, with annual sales of $29.1 billion, has seen about 85% of export capacity disrupted following strikes on major hubs including Mahshahr and South Pars. Estimated losses range from $30 billion to $50 billion.
Energy infrastructure has also been heavily affected. Refineries, storage depots and gas facilities have been struck, weakening a sector that generated about $78 billion in exports in 2024. Losses are estimated at $15 billion to $25 billion.
Explosion at Iran's Mahshahr petrochemical complex during US-Israeli strikes
Steel production, which underpins both industrial output and reconstruction, has been severely reduced, with about 70% of capacity disrupted. Losses are estimated at $5 billion to $10 billion.
Beyond physical losses, the war has triggered a sharp contraction in output.
Experts estimated a decline of more than 10% in GDP, equivalent to $34 billion to $44 billion in lost economic activity, affecting an economy that was already under strain before the conflict.
Beyond physical damage, policy-driven disruptions have compounded the losses.
Internet shutdown
A nationwide internet blackout beginning Feb. 28 has imposed additional costs.
Direct losses are estimated at $37 million to $42 million per day, totaling $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion over more than five weeks.
Afshin Kolahi, a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, said Monday indirect losses could raise the daily figure to $70 million to $80 million due to disruption to online businesses.
Online sales fell by about 80% during the shutdown, while the Tehran Stock Exchange lost 450,000 points within four days.
The shutdown is affecting multiple layers of the economy simultaneously, according to economic analyst Masoumeh Taherkhani.
“The Iranian economy is damaged at three levels by internet disruption, starting with the digital core, which employs between four and five million people,” Taherkhani told Iran International. “Then the platform layer collapses, and finally the broader economy is affected in a way that spreads across production and services.”
Taherkhani said the combined effect leads to widespread job losses. “When the economy is fully stagnant, the outcome is unemployment for workers, and that is not something that can easily be reversed,” she said.
Trade disruption and self-inflicted losses
Disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz have added further pressure, with estimated losses of $5 billion to $15 billion.
The restrictions have affected imports of essential goods and weakened non-oil exports, contributing to supply chain disruptions across the economy.
A US naval blockade targeting Iran’s maritime trade routes is expected to deepen losses.
Sanctions strategist and former US Treasury official Miad Maleki estimated that cutting off seaborne trade could eliminate about $435 million in daily economic activity, equivalent to roughly $13 billion per month.
Iran relies on the Persian Gulf for more than 90% of its trade, leaving it highly exposed to sustained disruption.
Oil exports of about 1.5 million barrels per day – generating roughly $139 million daily – could be halted almost entirely, removing the country’s main source of foreign currency.
What the losses could have funded
The scale of damage corresponds to investment levels that could have reshaped core sectors of the economy.
A large combined-cycle power plant with capacity of around 1,000 to 1,500 megawatts typically costs between $600 million and $1 billion to build, depending on technology and fuel infrastructure.
At the lower estimate of $150 billion in losses, Iran could have financed roughly 150 to 250 such plants. At the upper estimate of $300 billion, that rises to between 300 and 500 plants, enough to eliminate electricity shortages and significantly expand export capacity.
In housing, average construction costs for a modest apartment unit range between $30,000 and $50,000. With $150 billion, between 3 million and 5 million housing units could have been built. At $300 billion, that increases to roughly 6 million to 10 million units, enough to address shortages across major urban areas.
High-speed rail construction typically costs between $20 million and $40 million per kilometer. The lower estimate of losses could have funded approximately 3,750 to 7,500 kilometers of rail, while the higher estimate could support up to 15,000 kilometers, connecting major cities nationwide.
A modern hospital costs between $200 million and $500 million to construct and equip. The lower-end losses could have built 300 to 750 hospitals, while the higher estimate could fund up to 1,500 facilities, expanding healthcare access across the country.
What it means for individual Iranians
The per capita loss of up to $3,250 represents a substantial share of annual income for many households.
With average monthly earnings between $150 and $200, an individual earns roughly $1,800 to $2,400 per year, meaning a $3,250 equivalent exceeds a full year of income for many citizens.
If such an amount were available, it could cover between 12 and 20 months of living expenses for an average worker. Families could use it toward housing costs, including down payments or completing home purchases in smaller cities.
Small businesses could be launched with startup capital of $2,000 to $5,000, enabling self-employment in sectors such as retail, services or online commerce. Households could also afford private healthcare, education or relocation costs that are otherwise beyond reach.
Even the lower estimate per person represents several months of income, providing a buffer against inflation, job loss or unexpected expenses.
The overall range reflects damage already incurred, with additional losses building as trade, production and financial flows remain disrupted.
At up to $3,250 per person and rising, the economic toll underscores the scale of damage to Iran’s productive capacity, with long-term implications for recovery and growth.
