Trump’s warning to Tehran sparks hope, fear, and official pushback

“A number of agitated people, enemy mercenaries, had positioned themselves behind bazaar merchants and chanted slogans against Islam, against Iran and against the Islamic Republic,” Ali Khamenei said, according to state media.

“Protest is legitimate, but protest is different from rioting,” Khamenei added. “Officials should speak with protesters. Speaking with a rioter is pointless. Rioters must be put in their place,” he said.

The comments marked Khamenei’s first public response to the latest wave of demonstrations, which have intensified amid economic strain and currency volatility.

Khamenei’s language echoed his stance during earlier nationwide protests, including the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising and demonstrations in November 2019, when security forces used lethal force to suppress unrest.

At least eight protesters have been killed so far after being shot by security forces during the current unrest, according to human rights groups. Independent organizations, including Iran Human Rights Organization, previously documented 551 deaths – among them 68 children – during the 2022 protests.

Currency crisis blamed on ‘the enemy’

Khamenei also attributed the protests to economic grievances while assigning responsibility for the currency crisis to foreign adversaries. “These gatherings were mainly by bazaar merchants,” he said, adding that sharp and unstable exchange-rate swings were “not natural” and were “the work of the enemy.”

He accused unnamed actors of exploiting merchants’ complaints to cause “damage and insecurity,” saying such actions were “unacceptable.”

The remarks came as protesters in several cities have chanted for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic and mainly voiced support for the exiled prince Reza Pahlavi.

Confrontation with ‘the enemy’

Khamenei closed by insisting the Islamic Republic would not retreat. “The enemy will not sit quietly and uses every opportunity,” he said, adding that authorities “were and will be present in the field.”

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  Protesters back in Tehran streets following Trump’s message on sixth day

On Friday, US President Donald Trump warned that if Iranian authorities shoot peaceful protesters, the United States would act to help the people.

"If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go," Trump wrote in a message published on his Truth Social account.

Iranian officials responded with warnings toward the United States and Israel.

In a message published on his Truth Social account, Trump warned that if Iran’s rulers kill peaceful protesters, the United States would act to save the Iranian people.

"If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go."

Iran’s leaders rejected Trump’s warning, accusing Washington of violating the UN Charter and “inciting violence and terrorism,” according to a Foreign Ministry statement.

Iran also warned in a letter to the UN that Tehran would “exercise its rights decisively” if attacked and hold the US fully responsible for any intervention.

Officials including Parliament Speaker Mobammad Bagher Ghalibaf and top security official Ali Larijani also threatened that US forces and bases in the region could become “legitimate targets” if Trump’s warning turned into military action.

Capital unrest

After a brief lull on Wednesday and Thursday, protests in the capital resumed in multiple districts, with crowds chanting against the ruling establishment as security forces deployed in large numbers and used tear gas and batons to disperse gatherings.

Protests were also held in dozens of other cities including the holy cities of Mashhad and Qom as well as Shiraz, Hamadan, and Zahedan, a city in Iran’s restive southeast which was n epicenter of protests in 2022.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says at least eight protesters have been killed nationwide since the latest wave of unrest began on Dec. 28.

Prince’s call

Exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi urged Iranians to “take control of the streets” in Tehran and other major cities through a simultaneous mass presence and road blockades, telling supporters to move in small, cohesive groups from neighborhood streets toward central arteries.

The prince said a “million-strong” wave would overwhelm security forces and could prompt some to retreat or even join the people, describing such a takeover of the capital’s streets as an essential step toward bringing down the Islamic Republic.

Prominent activists

Several prominent Iranian dissidents including renowned filmmaker Jafar Panahi and jailed Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi issued a joint statement calling for a peaceful transition away from the Islamic Republic, saying that Iran is at a critical juncture amid mounting economic and political pressures.

“We stand with the people to reclaim the right to a dignified life, freedom, justice, human dignity, and sovereignty over our own destiny,” the statement said, published on Mohammadi's official account on X.

The signatories, including figures such as dissident filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof, political prisoners Mostafa Tajzadeh and Rasoul Qadiyani, say a renewed wave of civil resistance “taking over the streets” reflects a national will to remove what they call the illegitimate regime and build a democratic order based on popular sovereignty, justice and normal relations with the world.

Some analysts now warn that Iran may be entering the early stages of regime collapse — not through a single dramatic event, but through a slow erosion of state capacity.

What makes this round different is not only the fury in the streets. It is the growing uncertainty within the clerical establishment, which is leaning more heavily on coercion while projecting less confidence than before.

The protests began with the plunging rial. They have since widened into a broader test of whether the government can still manage a country living in constant crisis. Demonstrations that started in Tehran’s electronics markets have spread across provinces, bazaars and campuses, with chants increasingly aimed at the ruling system itself.

Live fire and deaths have fueled anger, while rare scenes in a religious city like Qom and other cities show crowds refusing to retreat.

A system running out of answers

Shayan Samii, a former US government appointee said the anger goes beyond economic hardship — it reflects a belief that the future has narrowed.

“They are upset because the value of their currency has gone down the drain,” he said. “There is nothing to look forward to.”

That sense of closure, he argued, is what pushes ordinary Iranians to take risks despite repression — a difficult dynamic for a state that relies heavily on deterrence and coercion.

Journalist and author Arash Azizi described protests appearing not only in major cities but in towns once seen as politically quiet.

“There is discontent everywhere,” he said — but protesters “lack leadership” and “lack organization.”

Without that, he warned, unrest can erupt and fade without producing structural change, even as each round leaves the system more brittle.

From an intelligence perspective, Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch in Israeli military intelligence, said the deeper issue is not simply mismanagement but the absence of any workable path forward.

“The main problem the regime has is that it has no silver-bullet solution to the economic problems in Iran,” he said. Even if authorities find temporary fixes, “the problem will stay.”

Economic calm, in other words, may only pause — not resolve the crisis.

Cracks inside the ruling class

It is not only public anger that is shifting, said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute but the mood among elites themselves.

“I have certainly not ever seen this level of hopelessness inside the Iranian regime,” he said.

That kind of discouragement, he added, can be more consequential than unrest alone, opening space for miscalculations and internal rivalries that become harder to contain.

Former US State Department official Alan Eyre cautioned against assuming outside forces can engineer rapid political change.

“Regime change is wildly improbable in Iran right now,” he said — warning that intense external pressure could strengthen hard-liners or push Iran toward greater militarization.

His remarks followed comments by Donald Trump that the United States was “locked and loaded” if Iranian authorities kill protesters — language that energized some activists while raising fears of escalation among others.

Why this wave feels different

Bozorgmehr Sharafeddin, head of Iran International Digital, argued that this round cuts deeper because it points to a crisis of state survival rather than policy error.

“This protest is not about inflation,” he said. “This is about the collapse of the Iranian economy.”

He also noted that international reaction came immediately — a contrast with earlier cycles when global attention arrived more cautiously and later.

Across the conversation, one theme recurred: the state still has the means to suppress dissent — but it is doing so with increasing uncertainty about what comes next.

Protesters are directing anger at the foundations of clerical power, not merely the officials administering policy. Reform promises carry less credibility. And senior figures themselves acknowledge problems they cannot easily fix.

That does not guarantee revolution and it does not mean collapse will come overnight. But analysts say a government that relies primarily on coercion while showing visible doubt from within no longer projects stability.

What emerges, they warn, is a system still capable of force yet less certain of itself with every passing crisis.

You can watch Episode 84 of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing.

In a message published on his Truth Social account, Donald Trump warned that if Iran’s rulers kill peaceful protesters, the United States would act to save the Iranian people.

"If Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go."

The phrase “locked and loaded” is a classic military expression in English, meaning a weapon is armed, ammunition is in place, and it is ready to fire. Its roots lie in military training, particularly in the US armed forces, and the term has appeared in military literature since at least the eighteenth century.

Formally incorporated into weapons manuals around the time of World War II, the expression has long carried an operational and warning connotation. It is not merely a metaphor or casual figure of speech, but language traditionally used to indicate readiness for immediate action.

The expression has also become widely familiar through popular culture. In Hollywood war films, beginning notably with the 1949 film Sands of Iwo Jima starring John Wayne, “lock and load” is commonly used to signal the imminent start of combat. The phrase has since been embedded in video games such as Call of Duty and Battlefield, where it typically precedes intense fighting scenes.

Trump has used similar language in previous high-tension situations, including during confrontations involving North Korea and Syria.

Senior US officials have also employed the term in moments of crisis, signaling that the military option is not only under consideration but operationally prepared.

'US ready for military action'

International relations scholar Kamran Matin described Trump’s wording as an explicit threat that could be interpreted as readiness for military action.

Matin told Iran International that in Trump’s latest remarks, the scope of the threat appeared to expand beyond Iran’s missile or regional activities to include the government’s violent response to domestic protests.

At the same time, he cautioned that Trump’s personal style must be taken into account, noting that the president is known for shifting positions and statements that allow for multiple interpretations.

However, Matin said that verbal threats do not always translate into action.

Despite signs of military preparedness by the United States and Israel in the region, Matin emphasized that there remains a significant gap between verbal threats, actual military readiness, and the political decision to launch a direct attack.

Washington would step in if protesters are violently killed, Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

“If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue,” he wrote. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”

Protests turn deadly

Trump’s remarks came as protests in Iran reached a fifth consecutive day on Thursday, with at least seven protesters reported killed by security forces. Demonstrations spread to new cities, including the clerical stronghold of Qom, where crowds openly called for the downfall of the theocracy.

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  Iran protests hit deadliest day as unrest spreads to clerical stronghold Qom

Earlier, a US official said the protests reflect deep public anger at years of government failure. In a written statement on Thursday, a spokesperson for the United States Department of State described the unrest as an expression of the Iranian people’s “understandable anger.”

“The protests reflect the understandable anger of the Iranian people at their government's failures and excuses,” the official said, accusing Tehran of neglecting the economy, agriculture, water and electricity for decades while “squandering billions on terrorist proxies and nuclear weapons research.” The statement also cited Iran’s involvement in acts of “terrorism against the United States and its allies.”

Demonstrations were reported across dozens of locations, from Tehran and Isfahan to Lorestan, Mazandaran, Khuzestan, Hamadan and Fars. Protesters chanted slogans directly targeting the ruling system and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Pro-monarchy slogans dominated many rallies, highlighting how the unrest has moved beyond economic grievances into open political defiance. Security forces used live fire in several cities, including Nurabad in Lorestan and Hamedan in western Iran, where videos showed officers shooting at demonstrators who remained in the streets despite the crackdown.