Iran International
Iranian authorities are hinting at an imminent gasoline price hike in a risky move after a fuel price rise in 2019 sparked nationwide protests which were quashed with deadly force.
"The government has decided to increase the price of unleaded gasoline, which is primarily used by luxury vehicles," Mohsen Hajimirzaei, chief of staff to President Masoud Pezeshkian, said on Monday night.
Hajimirzaei added that the decision was delayed to address concerns about its impact on those whose livelihoods depend on unleaded fuel, in a likely reference to taxi drivers.
"To eliminate worries over the price hike’s effect on vulnerable groups, the decision took considerable time."
Price increases tend to make other fuel types more costly, economic analysts speaking to Iranian state TV and Persian-language outlets abroad said, adding that they also generally drive up the cost of goods and services.
Previously, President Pezeshkian had proposed reducing the gasoline quota for low-income households while capping allocations for wealthier families.
Typically, fuel price increases are accompanied by a quota system for subsidized gasoline, where consumption beyond that quota is charged at higher rates.
Defending the move, Hajimirzaei said government subsidies could no longer be justified.
"We decided to import unleaded gasoline at a cost of $3.5 billion. It cannot be sold cheaply. Owners of new luxury cars will have to pay international prices," he told the Iranian Students' News Agency
Hundreds killed in 2019
The memory of November 2019 looms large, when a gasoline price hike sparked protests in over 110 cities and attacks by security forces on demonstrators claimed hundreds of lives.
Although that decision had been jointly made by the heads of the executive, legislative and judiciary branches, none accepted responsibility once unrest erupted.
Several Iranian outlets, including the reformist Rouydad24, warned on Tuesday that the unleaded gasoline price hike could fuel inflation and intensify financial pressure on middle- and lower-income groups. Serious unrest could recur, the outlet warned.
At the same time, serious challenges abroad further darkened the outlook.
Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on Tuesday that Iran would abandon military restraint and open new battlefronts if war with Israel reignites.
"In the next possible war, our restraint will end," he declared in parliament, adding that "New geographic areas and targets will be added to our response. And if the enemy overreaches again, the war could expand into economic and political arenas as well."
This statement strongly suggests that Iran may target shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and strike neighboring countries—reminiscent of its actions during the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, when it attacked oil tankers and launched missiles at Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, often without claiming responsibility.
The move could send global oil prices soaring but also restrict Iran's own foreign trade, exacerbating already deep economic problems.
