Iran International
The Islamic Republic may have suffered a punishing blow in the recent 12-day war but has not backed down and may resort to assassinations, former White House official Michael Doran told Eye for Iran.
Iran's establishment is disoriented, humiliated and prone to fight back by asymmetric means now that its conventional military and regional allies have been so thoroughly degraded, said Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute thinktank.
“They're like a boxer that's been punched in the nose, fallen down on his knee on the mat, but he's getting up … they'll start assassinating people,” Doran said.
In an interview with Eye for Iran, Doran said that while Iranian officials publicly declared victory after US and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities, behind closed doors the Islamic Republic is in crisis.
Its most powerful military sites were struck. Its deterrence was shattered. And now, it is left with few options but through covert attacks and regional destabilization.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added, still does not understand the full extent of Tehran's losses. “Nobody wants to be the bearer of bad news... everybody lies to their superior,” Doran said.
Doran said Tehran will turn to tactics it has long relied on including assassinations and reliance on proxy groups across the region.
Rights groups have for decades accused Tehran of killing dissidents abroad and four members of Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon were indicted by an international tribunal for their alleged role in killed a former prime minister, Rafic Hariri.
“They're going to look for those lines of fissure and see where they can cause trouble,” he said. “Assassination, intimidation ... that's the program always.”
After the 12-day war, Iran is again trying to fracture emerging regional cooperation, Doran said, adding that Tehran may target figures in Lebanon, Syria or elsewhere to advance its battered interests. Doran served as Senior Director for Near East and North African Affairs at the National Security Council and later as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under President George W. Bush, where he helped shape US strategy on Iran and the broader Middle East.
“If the Lebanese start moving toward normalization with Israel, they'll assassinate somebody,” he said. “They’ll assassinate al-Sharaa in Damascus,” Doran added, referring to Syria's de facto leader, an opponent of Iran.
Despite recent rhetoric about diplomacy, Doran believes US President Donald Trump remains committed to preventing a nuclear-armed Iran. “He knows that the guys across the way from him are nasty people, nasty thugs,” he said.
As Tehran regroups, Doran said the United States must maintain its pressure.
“Don't remove the sanctions,” he warned. “Iran is weak ... but they still know those techniques. And I expect them to use them.”
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music and Castbox.
"One Iranian ballistic missile impacted Al Udeid Air Base June 23 while the remainder of the missiles were intercepted by U.S. and Qatari air defense systems," Department of Defense Spokesman Sean Parnell told Iran International in response to an emailed request for comment.
"The impact did minimal damage to equipment and structures on the base. There were no injuries. Al Udeid Air Base remains fully operational and capable of conducting its mission, alongside our Qatari partners, to provide security and stability in the region," Parnell added.
The imagery obtained by Iran International provided the most concrete indication yet of physical harm to the Al Udeid Air Base, the biggest US military facility in the Middle East and the forward headquarters of US Central Command (CENTCOM).
Iran attacked Al Udeid in retaliation for US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites the previous day, a surprise operation which capped off a 12-day war between Iran and Israel which US President Donald Trump said "obliterated" Iran's nuclear program.
"US forces, alongside our Qatari partners, successfully defended against an Iranian ballistic missile attack targeting Qatar’s Al-Udeid Air Base near Doha, Qatar," CENTCOM said the day of the attack.
President Trump at the time dismissed the Iranian response as "very weak" in a post on Truth Social.
"13 (missiles) were knocked down, and 1 was ‘set free,’ because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction,” Trump added. “I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done."
The United States did not retaliate following the attack and Trump swiftly promulgated a ceasefire which remains in place.
Open-source satellite imagery of the sprawling base encompassing runways, roads dozens of structures shows one distinctive site toward the center of the facility: a white geodesic dome.
A June 24 satellite picture from geospatial analytics company Satellogic obtained by Iran International appeared to show the area reduced to a blackened smear.
No apparent damage appears visible elsewhere.
The site is likely a radome, or weatherproof enclosure, housing a roughly satellite dish-shaped modernization enterprise terminal (MET) whose installation at Al Udeid was described in a 2016 press release on the US Air Force's official website.
Costing $15 million, the MET "provides secure communication capabilities including voice, video and data services, linking service members in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility with military leaders around the world," the Air Force wrote.
The MET in Qatar was the first outside the United States and features anti-jamming technology, it added.
"Two US Army Patriot systems and several more operated by Qatar were responsible for defending the base," Farzin Nadimi, a defense and security analyst at the Washington Institute, told Iran International. "From the moment the Iranian missiles were detected, they had just about two minutes to respond."
An Iranian drone, he added, could have formed an as-yet undisclosed part of the attack, Nadimi said. "It may have slipped through while the Patriot batteries were busy intercepting incoming missiles."