New nuclear deal could shift Iran’s regional role, says former CIA director
Retired US Army General David Petraeus speaks at the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha on May 15, 2024
Former CIA Director and retired US Army General David Petraeus said that a new nuclear deal with Iran could pave the way for Tehran to become a more constructive player in the region.
“There’s a chance that there could be a nuclear deal that doesn’t have some of the shortcomings of the previous nuclear deal that could enable the lifting of sanctions progressively and so forth as confidence is built,” Petraeus said during a panel discussion at the Qatar Economic Forum 2025.
“And that could lead to them being a more constructive player in the region than they certainly have been for many decades.”
Asked whether Iran could be “brought back into the fold” like Syria, Petraeus responded: “That’s overly optimistic.”
He pointed to Iran’s role in supporting its allied forces in the region such as the Houthis in Yemen. “Assuming Iran then also stops some of the terrible activities that they’re doing through proxies in the region which have been so destabilizing, then you can start to see the contours of something that could be much more positive.”
Petraeus said there are signs of narrowing differences between Washington and Tehran, and a possible compromise could include restrictions on uranium enrichment for a limited period.
“Maybe that ends up being for three years and then you have an opportunity to do something small again. But you can actually see this deal starting to come together,” he said.
Amid indirect Iran-US talks, US President Donald Trump has insisted Iran must fully cease enrichment, leading Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to warn on Tuesday that talks look unlikely to progress under those conditions.
On Sunday, Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff told ABC News: “We cannot allow even one percent of an enrichment capability. Everything begins from our standpoint with a deal that does not include enrichment. We cannot have that.”
On the question of regime change, Petraeus dismissed it as unrealistic. “You have to deal with the world the way it is, not the way you would like it to be. And I never thought that regime change was at all realistic, frankly.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday that the current indirect nuclear talks with the United States are unlikely to succeed as he refused Washington's demands for Iran to halt uranium enrichment.
"Indirect negotiations took place (under Raisi) as well—just like now—but without results,” Khamenei said during a memorial ceremony for the late president and others killed in a helicopter crash last May. “We do not think it would yield results now either. We do not know what will happen.”
Turning to US calls for zero uranium enrichment, Khamenei said: “Since negotiations have come up, I want to give a warning to the opposing side. The American side that engages in these indirect talks and have discussions, should try not to spout nonsense.
"Saying things like 'we won’t allow Iran to enrich uranium' is way out of line. No one is waiting for anyone’s permission. The Islamic Republic has its own policy, its own approach, and it will continue to pursue it."
US President Donald Trump’s envoy to the Middle East on Sunday said Washington will not accept any level of uranium enrichment in a potential agreement with Tehran.
“We cannot allow even one percent of an enrichment capability,” Steven Witkoff told ABC News. “Everything begins from our standpoint with a deal that does not include enrichment. We cannot have that.”
Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful and Khamenei said that he would explain "at a later date" why the issue of enrichment is such a key focus of the talks, leaving the issue open.
On Monday, the United Arab Emirates-based The National cited an Iranian official as saying that Iran had not accepted Oman's invitation for a fifth round of talks with the US due to take place in Rome.
The American officials' insistence on "zero enrichment" has left Iran uncertain about the usefulness of more talks, the report said.
"Iran does not want to have another round of talks and them to fail", the official was quoted as saying. "With zero enrichment, we don't have a deal."
Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching uranium to 60% U-235, a level that causes "serious concern," according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi.
The IAEA has consistently maintained that there is no credible civilian use for uranium enriched to this level, which is a short technical step from weapons-grade 90% fissile material.
Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium had increased to 275 kg, enough to theoretically make about half a dozen weapons if Iran further enriches the uranium.
Earlier in the day before Khamenei's speech, deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran has received a proposal for the next round of indirect negotiations with the United States.
“We have received a proposal about the next round of negotiations with the US, and it is under review,” Gharibabadi told state media without providing further details.
Iran will retaliate with costly and damaging measures against any attempt by Europe to activate the snapback mechanism and reimpose UN sanctions, a hardline Iranian newspaper affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards warned on Tuesday.
In a scathing editorial, Javan daily criticized the threat of snapback — a mechanism in the 2015 nuclear deal that allows the return of UN sanctions — as a “European stick for blackmail” and warned of punitive and high-cost actions against the economies of the United States and Europe.
The editorial said such sanctions would be countered with restrictions in trade routes and geographies under Iran's control, adding that these areas would expand through alignment with other actors "frustrated by US and European policies.”
"The US and European economies should expect punishment and cost-imposing actions. The sanctions will be followed by bans and restrictions on their access to routes and geographies under Iranian control. These geographies, motivated by other actors frustrated with US and European policies, will expand into major commercial corridors," it said.
While Javan did not name locations directly, the paper implied that Iran could disrupt major trade corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz, where a significant portion of the world's oil passes, and possibly the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, as has been seen since the militant group imposed a maritime blockade in the wake of the war in Gaza.
“Any new sanctions must be met with real costs,” the editorial said, adding that the current Iranian negotiating position is no longer based on “Westoxicated thinking” but on firm demands for compensation and full sanctions relief from the outset of any agreement.
The paper said that Iran would only allow meaningful negotiations if its rights to enrichment and the preservation of enriched uranium stocks are recognized, and if all material and immaterial damages from what it called “illegal and inhumane” sanctions are paid in full.
'Trump eyes Arab wealth, not Iran investment'
Amid the ongoing indirect US-Iran nuclear talks, the editorial targeted US President Donald Trump, Javan accusing him of having no intention or ability to invest in Iran, saying his only objective is to “loot the wealth of Arab countries” to patch up America’s struggling economy.
“Trump, who is chasing after the pockets of Arab states, has no capacity for investment in any country,” the editorial stated. “He only dreams of healing the crisis-hit American economy.”
The piece mocked Trump’s recent regional tour and his military posture, claiming that US aircraft carriers and advanced weaponry had underperformed in conflicts such as Yemen and South Asia.
It argued that despite Trump’s rhetoric, “the US military's threatening gestures lack economic backing and have led to humiliating failure against Iran and China,” adding that Washington’s strategy had shifted to diplomacy out of necessity.
The editorial dismissed recent remarks by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who said that the US would not tolerate even 1% uranium enrichment by Iran, as bluster intended to sway negotiations and distract from Washington’s weak hand.
“This time, Iran is not negotiating with illusions, but with demands. If the West wants a deal, it must stop threatening, start compensating, and lift sanctions from day one,” the editorial added.
On Monday, the European Union and the United Kingdom voiced deep concern over Iran’s expanding nuclear program and its continued imprisonment of foreign nationals, according to a joint statement issued after high-level talks.
Iran has received a proposal for the next round of indirect negotiations with the United States, deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Tuesday.
“We have received a proposal regarding the next round of indirect talks between Iran and the US, and it is under review,” Gharibabadi, who serves as deputy for legal and international affairs, said in remarks published by the state media.
No further details about the content or timing of the proposed negotiations have been released.
The comments come a day after a Wall Street Journal reporter said that the next round of Iran-US nuclear talks is expected to take place this weekend in Rome.
However, citing an Iranian official, the United Arab Emirates' based The National reported that Iran has "not accepted" Oman's invitation for a fifth round of talks with the US.
It said that American officials' insistence on "zero enrichment" has left officials in Iran uncertain about the usefulness of more talks.
Iran’s oil revenues should be deposited into a national fund before being spent, the country’s budget chief said on Monday, urging greater transparency and fiscal discipline as the military's share of the revenue continues to rise.
A third of Iran’s projected oil revenue for the year ending March 2026—worth $12.4bn—will go directly to the armed forces and military projects, three times more than last year.
The rest of the oil income, along with $33.5bn in gas revenues, will be split between the government’s budget, the National Development Fund (NDF), and the national oil company.
“The best course of action is to deposit all oil revenues into the National Development Fund,” the head of Iran’s planning and budget organization Hamid Pourmohammadi told a forum in Tehran on Monday.
“This way, we can determine at the start of the year how much the government needs, and based on that, the government can plan how much it can spend by year’s end.”
Pourmohammadi offered no detail on the existing arrangements which allow the fund to be bypassed and institutions such as the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) access a portion of Iran’s oil revenue before it reaches the government’s coffers.
He conceded, however, that the administration of moderate president Masoud Pezeshkian lacks consensus on how to implement the NDF-takes-it-all idea.
The NDF was established in 2010 to replace the Foreign Currency Reserves Fund (FCRF). While the FCRF was meant to safeguard oil income for future generations, the NDF has increasingly been used to cover budget deficits, despite the state objective of investing oil revenues.
The fund has long operated under the direct control of supreme leader Ali Khamenei, with administrations needing his approval for withdrawals.
One of Pezeshkian’s first moves in office was to request funds to pay wheat farmers.
In recent years, billions have been syphoned to the IRGC and the state broadcaster, functioning as main vehicles of Khamenei’s hard and soft power.
The NDF’s share of oil and gas revenues dropped from 40% to 20% in the two years ending December 2024, according to Didban Iran citing a deputy of Iran’s budget office Hamid Amani Hamadani.
Iran’s private sector owed $7bn to the fund in January 2025, according to senior NDF official Mehdi Ghazanfari. This is a debt repaid slowly in local currency, which the fund must convert to dollars at below-market rates.
Ghazanfari put the total pay-outs from the fund to the administration at just above $103bn in 12 years. He also said $45bn had been loaned to private-sector in the same period—often to firms with ties to the IRGC or the supreme leader’s office
British interior minister Yvette Cooper said Iran posed an "unacceptable threat" to the domestic security of the country after authorities charged three Iranian nationals under a national security law following a major counter-terrorism investigation.
"Let me be clear, we will not tolerate growing state backed threats on UK soil. The Iranian regime poses an unacceptable threat to our domestic security which cannot continue," Cooper told parliament on Monday.
"The UK will not accept any Iranian state threat activity in the UK."
The sharp statement comes after the arrests of Iranian nationals on UK soil this month in terrorism-related cases.
On Saturday, three of the Iranian nationals were charged with offences under the National Security Act, accused of acting on behalf of Iran’s intelligence service and carried out surveillance targeting Iran International journalists.
All three are accused of engaging in conduct likely to assist a foreign intelligence service between August 14, 2024 and February 16, 2025.
New counter-terror powers against IRGC
Meanwhile an advisor to the UK government on Monday recommended new powers targeting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as calls for the IRGC’s proscription have grown following the spate of arrests.
The UK government’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation Jonathan Hall published findings on Monday advising greater powers for ministers to designate people affiliated with the IRGC as terrorists.
Hall's report called for legislation proscribing public demonstrations of support for Iran's paramilitary organization such as displaying its insignia in public and recommended stiffer sentences for those aiding or benefiting from the IRGC.
The Revolutionary Guards cannot be blacklisted the same way non-state actors are, Hall argued, but he recommended its agents and supporters be targeted through a Statutory Alert and Liability Threat or Salt notice.
"It will allow the government to communicate decisive stigma at an international level for certain State and State-backed entities. Naming and shaming in a high-profile manner, accompanied by open reasons, can help address attempts at plausible deniability for serious harm caused to the UK or its allies," the report said.
"The Liability Threat Notice ... (puts the IRGC) on notice that its operations, and its minions and influence networks, are at greater risk of executive action, by way of arrest and prosecution, or deportation, or other forms of disruption, from UK authorities."