Fires erupt in western Tehran amid reports of explosion followed by quake

Mehdi Zare says human responses to prolonged drought—particularly rampant groundwater extraction—are altering underground stresses and could trigger seismic activity in cities like Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad.

“Droughts can indirectly influence seismicity through human activities, particularly over-extraction of groundwater, which alters subsurface conditions,” Zare wrote on Rokna news Saturday.

These shifts may activate critically stressed faults, he added, especially in tectonically sensitive regions.

As aquifers are depleted, the earth’s crust begins to rebound, redistributing pressure and modifying fault dynamics. This process, compounded by reductions in pore pressure, brings fault lines closer to rupture.

In some areas of Tehran, groundwater levels are falling by up to two meters a year. Land subsidence has reached 31 centimeters annually in parts of southwest Tehran, according to government data released in March.

The 2017 Malard earthquake near Tehran, which measured magnitude 5.0, occurred near one such subsiding zone. Zare notes that similar patterns have been observed in California, India, and Spain, where changes in groundwater levels preceded swarms of small but revealing earthquakes.

Ali Beitollahi, head of earthquake engineering at Iran’s Ministry of Housing research center, warned of a destructive cycle. “Population grows, water becomes scarce, more dams and wells are built—and so we drill again,” he said.

He criticized the government’s approach, which focuses on securing more water rather than managing demand. “We are now hearing plans to drill deep wells in Tehran this summer,” Beitollahi said. “Our mismanagement is taking us to a dangerous place.”

Iran’s water reserves have fallen to critical levels, accelerating the risk of shortages and forcing officials to consider rationing months before peak summer demand.

Tehran's water supply is critically strained as key dams plummet to record lows, worsening a nationwide drought. Latian and Mamlou dams are at 12% capacity, Lar at 1%, and Karaj at 7%.

Nationwide rainfall is 82.9% of normal, and dam inflow is only 42%. Officials urge a 20% reduction in water use, as 19 provinces face water stress.

With 40 percent of Tehran’s aquifer already depleted and critical urban centers still expanding, experts say the time to act is rapidly closing. Without structural water governance reform and population redistribution, Iran risks turning drought into disaster—both above ground and below.

The rial dropped past 870,000 to the US dollar in Tehran’s open market, reversing gains made earlier last month during previous rounds of diplomacy in Oman. The currency had recovered to around 795,000 following the third round but slid again amid rising uncertainty.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Iran must end all uranium enrichment and open all nuclear facilities, including military sites, to American inspectors if it wants to avoid “serious consequences, including potential military action.”

“There’s no reason for enrichment unless you want a weapon,” Rubio told Fox News, adding that Iran must also abandon support for proxy groups and halt long-range missile development.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Friday dismissed Rubio’s demands, warning that such “maximalist positioning and incendiary rhetoric achieve nothing except eroding the chances of success.” He said Iran has “every right to possess the full nuclear fuel cycle as a founding signatory to the NPT.”

“A credible and durable agreement is within reach,” Araghchi said. “All it takes is firm political will and a fair attitude.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed Iran is the only non-nuclear-armed country enriching uranium to 60%.

No official reason has been given for the postponement of this weekend’s round. Iranian officials have acknowledged lingering disagreements over both general principles and technical details.

The rial had plunged to a record low of around 1,058,000 per dollar in early April before stabilizing during earlier rounds of talks.

The joint statement, signed by a wide range of international voices, condemned Tehran’s judicial handling of political prisoners and called on democratic governments and UN bodies to act swiftly.

The appeal centers on the cases of Behrouz Ehsani, 69, and Mehdi Hassani, 48, whose death sentences were recently upheld by Iran’s Supreme Court.

The statement described their prosecution as a sham: “Their kangaroo trial on 10 August 2024, lasting just five minutes, was a travesty of justice: they were denied legal counsel for nearly two years, tortured, and silenced during proceedings.”

The charges include “membership in the exiled opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization” and “propaganda,” framed as “enmity against God” and “corruption on earth” under Iran’s legal code.

“We demand an immediate halt to their execution,” the signatories wrote. “The international community must not remain silent.”

The group also warned of a broader execution drive under President Masoud Pezeshkian, who took office in August 2024. Since then, more than 1,000 executions have been carried out, disproportionately targeting women, juveniles, ethnic and religious minorities, and political dissenters. Several prisoners, including Abolhassan Montazer and Sharifeh Mohammadi, have already been moved to Ghezel Hesar Prison—described in the statement as “a notorious execution site.”

The appeal highlights findings by former UN Special Rapporteur Javaid Rehman, whose July 2024 report concluded that mass killings in Iran in 1981–82 and 1988 amounted to crimes against humanity and genocide. “The Iranian authorities’ systematic targeting of political prisoners is rooted in a culture of impunity,” the joint statement said.

They called on the UN and democratic governments to “identify and sanction Iranian officials responsible for human rights violations” and to tie future relations with Iran to the release of political prisoners and abolition of the death penalty.

Iran accounted for 64% of all known global executions in 2024, with at least 972 people executed, according to Amnesty International.

Hardline MPs have initiated a process that may result in Pezeshkian losing his energy minister Abbas Aliabadi and transport minister Farzaneh Sadeq, but the president has yet to enter the fray.

The inaction could be calculated, hoping that the impeachments calm a public angered by the tragic event and the lack of accountability. It could also deflect attention from the state entities involved in the port's operations which would otherwise take most of the heat for the apparent accident.

First to be named in the parliament was Sadeq, one of the very few female ministers in the history of Iran. She was to be held accountable for “oversight and inefficiency,” according to five MPs sponsoring the motion.

Calls to impeach Aliabadi gained traction shortly after. MPs blamed him for power outages that harmed households and industries. Surprisingly, some from the pro-Pezeshkian camp backed the motion.

“When a minister is weak, he must be replaced,” former presidential candidate Mostafa Hashemi Taba was quoted as saying by the moderate daily Arman-e Melli.

Another moderate outlet, Khabar Online, reported that hardliners in Iran's parliament—mainly from the ultraconservative Paydari Party—had been planning to remove both ministers since March, following the ousting of economy minister Abdolnasser Hemmati.

Back then, the administration didn't concede without a fight.

Officials and moderates outlets launched a campaign warning that impeachments would weaken the administration’s legitimacy, some even asserting cryptically that supreme leader Ali Khamenei viewed Pezeshkian's government as the Islamic Republic's last viable option and opposed destabilization.

Hardliners often submit multiple impeachment motions to increase the chances of at least one being approved for parliamentary debate.

Unofficial reports in Iranian media suggest Sadeq may be removed to show the government is responding to public demands.

Those with most power—and more likely to be culpable for the port blast—are expected to remain untouched: the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), for example, or the Mostazafan Foundation, which operates under Khamenei’s office.

The IRGC likely imports weapons materials through the port, which a subsidiary of the foundation operates.

The motion to impeach Sadeq has over forty signatures to date, according to an official tally, which can be read as a sign of things to come as no more than ten is required to set off the proceedings against a minister.

Previous initiatives to impeach Sadeq fell short, according to unofficial reports in Tehran's media, because Pezeshkian had hinted in closed session that she was Khamenei’s preferred candidate.

This time, the only outlet to come out in support of the transport minister is Etemad, whose proprietor Elias Hazrati serves as the government’s public relations chief. The daily has framed the motion as a move against the government.

Pezeshkian or his team are yet to publicly defend the two embattled ministers. It is a rare silence, perhaps signaling their patience until an actual battle in the parliament if and when the impeachment takes place.

“Iran is not going to win this,” said Lawler during the podcast. “The sooner they come to that realization and acceptance, the better the outcome will be for everybody.”

“If Iran doesn’t comply, then action will have to be taken,” he added.

Despite his hardline stance, Lawler supports diplomacy before war.

“It would be foolish not to try diplomacy first.” Invoking Reagan’s "trust but verify" adage, Lawler said diplomatic engagement was a tool to avoid war and not a sign of weakness.

Oil sanctions

The New York representative is one of the Congress's most vocal advocates of stepping up pressure on Tehran. He recently co-sponsored bipartisan legislation targeting China’s purchase of Iranian crude oil—part of a legislative package responding to Iran’s direct military attacks on Israel last year.

Lawler sees Iran’s oil trade—particularly with China—as the Islamic Republic's financial lifeline.

The Enhanced Iran Sanctions Act of 2025 targets Chinese purchases of Iranian crude oil and cracks down on facilitators like banks and insurers.

“They (Iran) have been the greatest sponsor of terrorism around the globe,” Lawler said. “Their funding stream comes in large measure from the petroleum industry and the illicit oil trade with China. China purchases the vast majority of Iranian petroleum—amounting to a $200 billion revenue increase under Joe Biden’s watch.”

Lawler praised Trump's current strategy, calling it "night and day" compared to that of his predecessor.

Separately on Thursday, President Donald Trump declared that all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must cease, warning that any buyers would be subject to secondary sanctions. “They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Timing of talks is justified

Lawler also rejected criticism from some Iran hawks that the Trump administration is negotiating too early and giving away leverage.

With Iran’s nuclear capabilities more advanced than in years past, he said the urgency is warranted.

“We’re in a different world. Iran is further along today than they were four years ago or eight years ago,” he told Eye for Iran. “So I don’t know how much longer people want to wait.”

That urgency, however, now faces a new obstacle. The fourth round of US-Iran nuclear talks, initially scheduled for May 3 in Rome, has been postponed for reasons still unknown.

Lawler, who represents a district with a significant Persian community, said many of his Iranian-American constituents support a tougher US stance.

You can watch the full interview with Congressman Lawler on YouTube or listen on any major podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon or Castbox.