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An apparent sole focus for US-Iran talks on Tehran's nuclear program could make any deal resemble one President Donald Trump exited in 2018 for allegedly being too soft on Tehran, a leading American expert on Iran said.
Ilan Berman, a former CIA and Pentagon consultant now senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council told Iran International that early signs could point to a deal that does not address the issues which led to that pullout.
"The same concerns that prompted the Trump administration to withdraw from the JCPOA — limited duration, narrow scope, and overly generous concessions to Tehran — are once again at the center of the conversation."
"Ballistic missiles are the most likely delivery mechanism for a future nuclear weapon. Excluding them from the deal, as was done in 2015, is a critical flaw," Berman added.
"It’s a concession that should never have been made — and repeating it now would be a serious mistake."
The advancement of talks to discussions between Iranian and US specialist teams on technical matters which began on April 26 could signal that major political decisions have been already made, Berman said.
"When negotiations reach the expert level, it typically means that the parties have already achieved consensus on key issues and are now refining the technical details."
"By that measure, the talks are moving swiftly. While I’m uncertain whether a deal will be finalized within the next two months, there’s no question this process is progressing significantly faster than previous negotiations."
President Trump’s informal 60-day deadline for reaching a new deal might also favor Tehran, Berman added.
"There are three-time pressures shaping this process: the approaching snapback deadline at the UN, the looming US midterm election cycle and the pace of Iran’s nuclear advancements. Each factor limits Washington’s options and strengthens Tehran’s bargaining position."
Berman warned that a desire for quick political victories — especially after diplomatic disappointments with Russia and Hamas — could lead the administration to make premature concessions in the Iran file.
Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is handling all three dossiers.
"The current team is handling multiple high-stakes portfolios simultaneously, and that’s deeply concerning," Berman said. "When you try to solve Russia, Gaza and Iran all at once, you risk compromising the depth and quality of each."
Berman also raised concerns about the precedent a new agreement might set for nuclear non-proliferation in the broader Middle East.
"If Iran retains the right to enrich uranium, regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey will demand the same," he warned.
"That undermines the integrity of the global non-proliferation regime."
Saudi Arabia could move toward normalization with Israel if the Jewish state successfully destroys Iran’s nuclear program without provoking retaliation, The Jerusalem Post reported on Thursday, citing unnamed Israeli officials.
“In the event that Israel actually succeeded in destroying Iran's nuclear program, some top Israeli officials believe the Saudis would be so enthusiastic about the removal of that threat that they would move to normalize with Jerusalem simply based on that radical outcome and the new cornerstone of regional stability,” the report said.
According to the report, Riyadh is not fundamentally opposed to an Israeli airstrike on Tehran’s nuclear program—so long as it fully succeeds and leaves Saudi Arabia unharmed. Their main concern is that a partial or failed strike would provoke Iranian retaliation or push Tehran to accelerate its nuclear efforts.
This risk is why Saudi Arabia continues to prefer diplomacy and has sent top officials to improve relations with Iran, the report said.
“Yet, if Israel took the high risk and rolled out a perfect outcome that did not harm Riyadh and removed the Iranian nuclear threat, the Saudis might very well shift from their risk-averse standard position to wanting to get closer to Israel as its broader protector and ally,” the report added.
A US lawmaker said on Thursday that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth does not have the constitutional authority to declare war on Iran, after he warned Tehran of military consequences for supporting Yemen’s Houthis.
“I support this administration, but the Secretary of Defense doesn’t have the Constitutional authority to declare war on a sovereign country,” Republican Representative Thomas Massie wrote on X.
“A planned military attack on Iran is an Act of War and requires a vote of Congress according to the US Constitution.”
Saudi Arabia could move toward normalization with Israel if the Jewish state successfully destroys Iran’s nuclear program without provoking retaliation, The Jerusalem Post reported on Thursday, citing unnamed Israeli officials.
“In the event that Israel actually succeeded in destroying Iran's nuclear program, some top Israeli officials believe the Saudis would be so enthusiastic about the removal of that threat that they would move to normalize with Jerusalem simply based on that radical outcome and the new cornerstone of regional stability,” the report said.
According to the report, Riyadh is not fundamentally opposed to an Israeli airstrike on Tehran’s nuclear program—so long as it fully succeeds and leaves Saudi Arabia unharmed. Their main concern is that a partial or failed strike would provoke Iranian retaliation or push Tehran to accelerate its nuclear efforts.
This risk is why Saudi Arabia continues to prefer diplomacy and has sent top officials to improve relations with Iran, the report said.
“Yet, if Israel took the high risk and rolled out a perfect outcome that did not harm Riyadh and removed the Iranian nuclear threat, the Saudis might very well shift from their risk-averse standard position to wanting to get closer to Israel as its broader protector and ally,” the report added.
Dozens of women in Tehran and Shiraz have reported receiving personalized text messages in recent days from Iran's Headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice warning them about hijab violations.
What began as a pilot surveillance project in the conservative city of Isfahan is now quietly extending its reach to the Iranian capital.
The emergence of these messages in Tehran and Shiraz has triggered widespread concern that Iran’s hardline factions are laying the groundwork for a high-tech nationwide surveillance system to enforce mandatory hijab laws.
“I was visiting my father’s grave in the early hours of the morning when I received the warning,” wrote one woman posting under the handle @jesuisminaaa on X. “I sat there, crying and crushed. Someone there had reported me. How can a person think only about my headscarf in a place filled with grief?”
The message she and others received is stark: remove your hijab in public, and you may face legal action.
From cars to the streets
Since 2023, Iran’s police have used traffic cameras to detect unveiled women in cars. Registered vehicle owners receive automated warnings. If three warnings are logged, the car is impounded for up to four weeks. Tens of thousands of cars have been seized under the measure.
Many male owners report that no women—veiled or unveiled—were in their cars on the dates cited in the warning messages. Some female drivers also say they were not using their vehicles at the time the alleged violations occurred.
But the new measure, first piloted in late March in Isfahan and now rolled out in Tehran and Shiraz, represents a dramatic shift from vehicle-based enforcement to the surveillance of pedestrians with a much more advanced technology.
According to multiple experts and reports on social media, the institution is now identifying individuals by cross-referencing surveillance footage with mobile phone geolocation data, smart card usage including subway and bank cards as well as government identity databases.
The result: personalized messages delivered to women’s phones within hours of their appearances in public spaces.
Legal and ethical questions
The scale and precision of the operation have provoked an outcry from legal experts, activists and ordinary citizens.
“Law experts, please answer this: does the Headquarters for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice even have legal access to people’s personal data?” wrote Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, a reformist former government spokesman and law professor on X. “Let the country be in peace!”
The head of the powerful, hardline institution is appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and appears to operate independently of the government.
Both the Minister of Telecommunications, Sattar Hashemi, and government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani have denied the administration’s involvement or authorization for the expanded surveillance.
“It has been proven that the use of force in the realms of culture and society leads to counterproductive results. In the field of education, police and judicial measures have not been effective and will not be,” the president’s deputy chief of staff for communications said in a post on X.
“Blaming the administration and the president for the costs of repeating failed experiences is both inaccurate and unethical,” Mehdi Tabatabai added.
But critics argue that even if the government, parliament and the judiciary have no direct control and are not formally endorsing the measures, they are doing little to intervene.
A nation under surveillance
In September 2024, the Supreme National Security Council quietly shelved a newly ratified stricter hijab law to avoid public backlash.
Yet the technological enforcement campaign has continued—and expanded—in a parallel track.
Some Iranians are choosing to push back.
“Most of my female passengers are unveiled,” wrote Mohammad Farahani, a disabled veteran of the Iran-Iraq War who now drives a cab in Tehran.
“I’ve received two hijab warnings," he wrote on X. "For the sake of the women of my country, I won’t care if I get a third."
