Iran, Hezbollah eyeing renewed foothold in Syria - Israeli think tank

The Haft-e Sobh paper cited market data showing a 32 percent year-on-year increase in opium prices in April, bringing the average cost to around 1.64 million rials per gram—equivalent to roughly $2.

The rial fell sharply after the start of Iran-US nuclear negotiations, trading at 820,000 to the dollar. Based on this rate, the current opium price range of 1.3 to 2 million rials per gram translates to $1.58 to $2.44.

“The price hikes in the past two years have been astronomical,” one user told Haft-e Sobh. “People can’t afford opium or its derivatives like opium extract anymore. Many have switched to industrial drugs instead.”

Over the past five years, the average price of opium has more than doubled. In 2020, it stood at around 750,000 rials per gram ($0.91), rising to 1.2 million rials ($1.46) in 2023 and now averaging 1.64 million rials ($2).

For much of the last decade, black-market opium prices had risen more slowly than Iran’s official inflation rate. But that gap has now narrowed considerably. Official inflation in the past year was 33.4 percent, nearly mirroring the 32 percent jump in opium prices.

The shift in affordability has triggered a broader change in consumption. A February 2025 field report by the Etemad newspaper found that the use of traditional narcotics like opium has declined sharply in the past seven years, with heroin and methamphetamine becoming more prevalent.

Unlike opium, meth is often easier to manufacture domestically and does not rely on cross-border supply chains.

Much of the current scarcity is linked to the Taliban’s ban on poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, enacted in early 2022. Taliban forces destroyed large swathes of opium poppy fields, disrupting regional supply and pushing up prices.

In July 2022, Iran’s Tejarat News website reported that prices had spiked nearly sixfold before partially stabilizing.

Meanwhile, as demand remains high, reports of poppy cultivation inside Iran have surfaced despite official crackdowns. Government-linked media recently aired footage of poppy fields being destroyed in southern provinces.

In one case from March, footage released by the Baloch Activists Campaign showed armed raids by Iranian forces on the village of Esfand in Sistan and Baluchistan province, aimed at destroying local poppy farms.

In 2022, the UN office on drugs and crime (UNODC) reported that an estimated 2.8 million people suffer from a drug use problem in Iran. The country also has one of the world’s highest prevalence of opiate use among its population.

While reformist outlets welcomed what they described as swift progress and a move toward technical-level discussions, conservative dailies backed the negotiation team but renewed warnings against what they called US hostility and external opposition from diaspora critics.

On Sunday, Ham-Mihan, a reformist paper aligned with technocratic factions, described the shift to expert-level talks as evidence of agreement on core principles, such as Iran’s continued uranium enrichment.

It called this “a sign of rapid progress” but warned that it did not guarantee a final deal. “The stage reached suggests a framework is in place, but final terms will be decided in detail-oriented discussions,” the editorial said.

The paper also predicted the alleged indirect format of talks may soon shift to direct engagement, arguing that detailed negotiations are impractical through intermediaries.

Shargh, another reformist paper, featured interviews with four former officials and political figures. All welcomed the apparent momentum.

“If external spoilers are kept at bay, this can lead to tangible gains for the Islamic Republic,” said reformist activist Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hessar, adding that European threats to trigger the snapback mechanism appear to have receded.

In contrast, the conservative Farhikhtegan focused on perceived foreign interference. Its lead story, titled “Lobbyists of Tension,” accused a range of organizations—including American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies—of undermining the talks.

It said, without evidence, that these groups, through “financial backing and intelligence ties,” aim to maintain pressure on Iran and shape US foreign policy against Tehran.

The paper also said that "Iranian dissidents abroad were spreading misleading information to derail the negotiations,” framing the process as vulnerable to outside manipulation.

The hardline Kayhan, viewed as reflecting the Supreme Leader’s position, struck a defiant tone. In a lengthy commentary, it warned that negotiations were historically a tool of colonial pressure and argued that only military and nuclear strength had forced the US to the table.

In another piece, Kayhan wrote that excluding Europe and regional states in the talks had allowed Iran to slow the pace and avoid compromise. The writer said “indirect talks humiliated the US, reinforcing Tehran’s standing.”

Saying that US enmity toward the Islamic Republic would persist regardless of the outcome, it added, “The world is watching a diplomatic clash between satanic and divine powers,” as resistance to diplomatic means continued.

“It is ideology, flexible ideology. Extremist, but flexible,” Alizadeh said. “Using lies, creating lies—that’s part of their strategy.”

Alizadeh, who served in Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs for 22 years, said Tehran’s current posture is motivated by a desire to stay afloat amid both internal unrest and external pressure.

Despite having defected, Alizadeh says he remains in contact with individuals inside Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and remains familiar with official policy thinking.

He offered insight into the mindset of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling him a revolutionary who clings to the vision of his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, to export the Islamic Revolution.

“The reality is dictating to Khamenei that in this situation—internally because of the economic problems inside Iran, and tension with many parts of the world, particularly with Israel and the United States, and now with the European Union,” he said.

According to Alizadeh, pressure is mounting: Israel’s strikes on Iran’s regional proxies, economic hardship, domestic dissent, and the looming threat of “snapback” sanctions from the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) are all pushing Tehran toward tactical concessions.

Despite its defiant stance, he said, Iran will most likely cave to US demands—but only temporarily.

Flipping his lights on and off, Alizadeh emphasized: “The nuclear program is like this: switch on. Switch off."

Iran permits nuclear inspectors into the country, he added, but blocks human rights monitors because Tehran can pause nuclear activities but cannot hide rights abuses.

Alizadeh served as a diplomat in Finland during the 2009 contested elections, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s declared victory sparked mass protests.

Supporters of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi claimed the vote was rigged, leading to a nationwide crackdown.

That moment, Alizadeh said, shattered his lifelong beliefs.

“When the Green Movement erupted in Iran was a moment that I always describe it as rebirth for myself,” he said.

Alizadeh pointed to the lack of public outrage from Iran’s hardliners in the face of renewed diplomacy—even with President Donald Trump whom the detest for ordering the killing of military leader Qasem Soleimani and withdrew from an earlier nuclear deal during his first term.

“Trump is in office—the Trump who killed Qasem Soleimani and the Trump who withdraw his country out of the JCPOA,” Alizadeh said. “None of the hardliners are saying anything against the talks. So, in fact, it's a matter of survival. They know this is a real game.”

Alizadeh said he advises American officials that Iranian diplomacy should not be compared to the Western model. In Iran’s case, it’s a calculated tool to manipulate perception.

“For Khamenei, diplomacy is a tool. He used it as instrument to trick people that, I am a rational person. Iran under me is a normal country like all the others,” Alizadeh said.

To hear more from Hossein Alizadeh, watch the full episode of Eye for Iran on YouTube or listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Castbox, or Amazon.

“With the army behind us, we can express our positions on peace, stability, and regional cooperation from a position of strength,” Pezeshkian said during a ceremony marking Army Day.

He added that the armed forces have helped position Iran as a regional power and said the country now produces its own military equipment. “We build what we need on land, in the air, and at sea,” he said.

Pezeshkian praised the army’s role in responding to national crises and described it as a reliable force alongside the government and people.

The Iranian army, reliant on conscription, is equipped mainly with older generation weapons, many produced during the Soviet Union.

His comments came days after the first round of talks between Iranian and US officials in Oman. Following the talks, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told military commanders that Iran’s armed forces must maintain maximum readiness to counter external threats. He described the military as the country’s shield and accused foreign powers of trying to weaken public trust in it.

President Donald Trump has threatened strikes if Iran fails to come to an agreement with the United States to curtail or dismantle its nuclear program.

“Armies that lack conviction, courage, and trust in their cause have collapsed, no matter how heavily equipped they were,” Khamenei said.

Khamenei also called for upgrades in weapons, logistics, and personnel support, alongside a continued focus on ideological commitment. Senior military officials echoed the message, saying Iran’s armed forces remain fully prepared and supported by the public.

The plan was presented by Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in writing to US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff during the three-hour talks.

Tehran proposed that in the first stage, it would temporarily reduce its uranium enrichment level to 3.67% in exchange for access to financial assets frozen by the United States and permission to export its oil, the diplomatic sources told Iran International.

In the second phase, the sources added, Iran would permanently end high-level enrichment and restore the United Nations nuclear watchdog's inspections if the United States lifts further sanctions on Iran and persuades Britain, Germany and France to refrain from triggering the so-called snapback of UN sanctions on Tehran.

In this phase, Iran would also commit to implementing the Additional Protocol, a supplementary agreement that allows the UN nuclear watchdog to carry out surprise inspections at sites not declared to the agency.

Tehran ended that compliance in February 2021 after Trump in his first term withdrew from a previous international deal over Iran's nuclear program in 2018.

The third and final stage calls for the US congress to approve the nuclear agreement and for Washington to lift both primary and secondary sanctions, while Iran would transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpiles to a third country.

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and the US intelligence assesses that Tehran has not yet resolved to build one, but the Trump administration has warned Iran it must come to a nuclear deal or face attack.

A second round due to be held in Rome on Saturday could prove more rocky than the amicable first round in which Iran submitted its plan for a deal.

Washington toughened its public stance on Tuesday, with both the White House and Witkoff saying that the US goal in negotiations would be the wholesale end of Iran's nuclear program, a notion Iran has repeatedly called a non-starter.

Iran's proposal welcomed by Witkoff

US envoy Witkoff welcomed the proposals presented by the Iranian side, the sources told Iran International, surprising the Iranian delegation in Muscat.

Iranian officialdom appeared cheered by the first round of talks, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remarking in a meeting with senior military commanders on Tuesday that "the initial steps have been implemented well".

A diplomatic source outside Tehran expressed skepticism to Iran International of the Islamic Republic's intentions in the talks and said it seeks to delay a foreign attack by staggering an agreement over several complex phases.

“One of the reasons Iran’s Supreme Leader agreed to allow the resumption of negotiations is the need to buy more time, because he knows Iran currently lacks the ability to defend itself against another airstrike," the source said.

“Iran is mainly stalling to buy time to rebuild its air defense capabilities, which were all destroyed by Israel in late October, and to restore its capacity to produce surface-to-surface missiles which were damaged in that same Israeli attack,” the source added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Thursday that his actions had previously thwarted Iran's ability to build a bomb, appearing to respond to a New York Times report that President Trump had halted Israeli plans to attack Iran.

"Netanyahu has led countless secret and open actions in the campaign against Iran's nuclear program that only thanks to them Iran does not have a nuclear arsenal today," the statement said.

Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Wednesday Iran was "not far" from possessing an atomic bomb.

"It's like a puzzle: they have the pieces and maybe one day they could put them back together. There's still a long way to go before we get there. But they're not far away, we have to admit that," he said in an interview with Le Monde.

"It's not enough to tell the international community 'we don't have nuclear weapons' for them to believe it. We have to be able to verify it," Grossi said.

In its latest report in March, the IAEA warned that over the past three months, Iran had significantly expanded its reserves of highly enriched uranium, and if this trend continues, its stockpile could theoretically be enough to produce six nuclear bombs.