Gaza and Yemen strikes set Mideast aflame anew

Tensions between Iran and the United States have risen sharply since Donald Trump re-entered the Oval Office on 20 January, presenting multiple risks of escalation.

A key deadline in October 2025 looms over whether European countries will trigger the snapback mechanism to re-impose United Nations sanctions removed as part of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015.

Indications, not least by President Trump himself, that he would like to negotiate a new agreement to address Iran’s rapidly-advancing nuclear program, have been offset by his administration’s restoration of its ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran.

Trump’s transactional nature and unconventional style of decision-making means nothing can be ruled out in a high-stakes confrontation without a clearly-defined plan. 

Caught in the middle are Iran's Arab neighbours, where large-scale projects aimed at future-proofing economic development and growing non-oil sectors would be jeopardized by any conflict involving Iran.

‘De-risking’ has become a mantra in Arab capitals and particularly in Riyadh as the landmark year of 2030 draws closer and as the ‘giga-projects’ associated with Vision 2030 move into construction and delivery phases.

Qatar this month called for a diplomatic solution to the US-Iran standoff over Tehran's nuclear program and argued against military action.

The desire to reduce exposure to regional volatility has been evident in the process of rapprochement with Iran since 2020, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait restoring full diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2022 and 2023 and maintaining regular dialogue on key issues of interest.

This was evident in regional responses to the war in Gaza after 7 October 2023 as the conflict did not regionalize, in part because there was little appetite in any capital on either side of the Persian Gulf for any escalation. 

Excluded once, not twice

Back in 2015, officials in some Arab capitals and also in Israel expressed frustration that they were not included in the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 that culminated in the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which Trump’s first administration withdrew in 2018.

In 2020, Saudi leaders called on the incoming Biden administration to consult with them as it sought to revive the Iran deal and explore an expanded ‘follow-on’ agreement, which ultimately did not happen.

As the indirect talks between US and Iranian officials broke down in 2022, the role of Iran's neighbouring Arab countries became more central to keeping open channels of communication between the parties. 

Oman and Qatar, along with Kuwait, have long played roles in diplomacy and mediation in regional affairs, as they generally maintained pragmatic working relationships with Iran which, in the Qatari case, included one of the world’s largest reservoirs of natural gas which straddled their maritime boundary.

Officials in Oman placed a premium on balancing relationships with regional partners and being able to utilize their ability to engage with adversaries to address flashpoints and minimize their threat to regional security.

Prior to their passing in 2020, both Sultan Qaboos of Oman and Emir Sabah of Kuwait had well-earned reputations as diplomatists par excellence borne out of decades of involvement in regional affairs.

An example of their efforts to reduce tensions was seen in early 2017 when Emir Sabah sent a letter to Iran’s then-president, Hasan Rouhani, to establish a basis for dialogue after tensions had soared in 2016. Rouhani responded by visiting Kuwait and Oman and Emir Sabah then traveled to Muscat to meet with Sultan Qaboos to follow up, but the subsequent rift over Qatar put paid to those efforts. 

In 2025, Kuwait is focused on domestic issues and relatively absent from the regional scene, but there is space for Saudi Arabia to play more of an active role than it has in the past and to build upon the progress in the Kingdom’s relations with Iran since ties were re-established two years ago.

Since 2023, the Saudi leadership has been active in regional diplomatic initiatives concerning Syria, Gaza, and Sudan, and has burnished its credentials as an intermediary with convening power across the Arab and Islamic worlds.

In its ongoing facilitation of meetings of Ukrainian, Russian, and U.S. officials, the Kingdom has shown that it has the ability to navigate between adversaries and leverage its growing non-alignment in world affairs.

Securing a seat at the table in the Russia-U.S. talks may be a prelude to inserting Saudi Arabia into the middle of any negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, thereby minimizing the risks of exclusion from the talks, as in 2015, but Iranian officials may still view the Saudis as too close to the U.S. and not impartial. 

The regional mediators of longer standing, Qatar and Oman, are likely to continue to offer their services in relaying messages between the Unites States and Iran and ensuring that opportunities for dialogue remain open, joined by the United Arab Emirates which delivered a letter from Trump to Iranian leaders on 12 March.

Trump redux

Trump’s mercurial approach to policy appears even more unpredictable second time around and has led to whipsaw decisions on tariffs that have added to market uncertainty and left analysts scrambling.

A similar pattern may well overshadow the next phase of the delicate dance between the U.S. and Iran, especially if Trump and Iranian leaders engage in verbal sparring matches of ever-increasing volume.

If this happens, officials in the Gulf States may focus on practical measures to limit the possibility of escalation, whether by accident or design, and identify the parameters of realistic dialogue going forward. 

Taken together, their efforts are illustrative of the prevailing opinion in the region in favor of resolving the standoff between Tehran and Washington, and the depth of Emirati (and Saudi) political and economic relationships in DC may resonate with the Trump White House and its Congressional allies.

While tensions in other parts of the Middle East have soared in the wake of the Gaza war and the degradation of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance,’ the rulers in Riyadh, Muscat or Abu Dhabi are more closely aligned than they were in Trump’s first term, and may thus be better placed to play a proactive and productive role in de-escalatory regional dynamics.

Isa Bozorgzadeh, spokesman for Iran’s water industry, said on Tuesday that the usable capacity of Karaj Dam near Tehran has dropped to nearly half, much of it rendered useless due to sediment buildup.

“Lar Dam has practically dried up, and Latian, Taleqan, and Mamloo reservoirs are facing a 46% decrease in rainfall compared to the average and 25% compared to last year,” he told ILNA news agency.

Water shortages have triggered growing concerns in recent weeks, particularly in Tehran and Isfahan provinces, where officials have raised the possibility of rationing.

Bozorgzadeh cautioned that Tehran is consuming 50 million cubic meters of surface water each month while the combined reserves of the capital’s five main dams—including dead storage and sediment—amount to just 60 million cubic meters.

“Conditions have deteriorated to the point where even a motorcyclist could drive through the reservoirs,” he said.

Eastern Tehran’s water and wastewater company reported that Latian and Mamloo dams are each only 12% full, while Lar is down to just 1%. Karaj, a historically stable reservoir, has shrunk to 7% capacity.

Iran’s water supply depends largely on rainfall, snowmelt, and underground aquifers, but decades of over-extraction have left groundwater tables severely depleted. The sharp decline in precipitation—down more than 40% in Tehran province relative to long-term averages—has compounded the problem.

Beyond Tehran, Bozorgzadeh identified Hormozgan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Khuzestan, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, and Bushehr as regions struggling with a 50% drop in rainfall.

Government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani acknowledged the severity of the situation, saying, “A nationwide decrease in average rainfall this year has led to shortfalls as high as 75% in some provinces.”

Iran’s energy ministry reports show that despite lower rainfall, hydropower generation increased by 24% in the fiscal year beginning March 2023, amid the country's energy crisis, reaching 17 terawatt-hours and maintaining that level into the current year.

Dalga Khatinoglu, an oil and gas analyst, suggested the government’s decision to sustain hydroelectric output was a factor in the current crisis.

“Iran failed to achieve its planned growth in thermal and renewable energy, leaving it dependent on hydropower,” he told Iran International. “Over the past two years, the country commissioned just 4 gigawatts of new plants—about 30% of its target—with 90% being gas-fired. The rest came from renewables.”

Hydropower reliance, combined with a persistent drought, has accelerated reservoir depletion, leaving little room for recovery even if precipitation levels were to improve.

Meanwhile, Iranian media has begun to raise alarms about broader implications. Etemad newspaper warned that 2025 could mark a turning point in the country’s water and energy crisis, predicting that shortages could become more severe than any previously experienced. Some hydrologists have cautioned that Iran has used up nearly 1,000 years' worth of groundwater reserves in just three decades.

“The pace is accelerating with at least 169 known executions identified in January and February alone. Should this alarming rate remain consistent, the total number of executions could exceed 1,000 this year, a chilling threshold that demands a collective global response,” Sato warned.

Last year, at least 975 people were executed in Iran, a 17% increase from the 834 executions recorded the previous year, according to a joint report released by the Iran Human Rights Organization (IHRNGO) and Together Against the Death Penalty (ECPM).

It has stepped up since the 2022 uprising. In 2023, the UN quickly identified Tehran's utilising the death penalty to quash dissent.

"Criminal proceedings and the death penalty are being weaponised by the Iranian government to punish individuals participating in protests and to strike fear into the population so as to stamp out dissent, in violation of international human rights law," the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) said at the time.

Sato also highlighted the ongoing discrimination against religious and ethnic minorities, the lack of transparency in human rights cases, and the continued crackdown on protests and dissent.

Religious minorities, including Baha’is, Sunnis, and Christian converts, as well as ethnic groups such as Turks, Kurds, Arabs, and Baluchis, remain targets of state repression, she said.

She cited reports of arbitrary arrests, unfair trials, and executions targeting these communities.

Sato also raised concerns about the rising number of executions of women, naming three political prisoners—Pakhshan Azizi, Varishe Moradi, and Sharifeh Mohammadi—who are currently on death row.

At least 179 cases of femicide were documented in Iran last year, she said, adding that women in Iran continue to face systemic discrimination under laws that devalue their testimony in court and restrict their rights in employment and other areas.

Sato said human rights defenders, journalists, and lawyers are being harassed, intimidated, and threatened, particularly in Iranian prisons, where many are denied medical treatment.

She also noted that families of political prisoners face threats outside of prison.

UN fact-finding mission reports sexual violence in Iranian prisons

Sara Hussain, the head of the UN Independent Fact-Finding Mission on Iran, told the council that Iranian authorities have committed widespread human rights violations, including extrajudicial detentions, torture, and sexual violence against prisoners.

"These acts constitute crimes against humanity and gender-based violence," she said.

The fact-finding mission has previously documented the use of torture, forced confessions, and intimidation tactics against detainees.

Calls for Iran to end repression

Representatives from multiple countries called on Iran to halt executions and end its crackdown on dissent.

Germany urged the Islamic Republic to stop executions and guarantee fundamental freedoms, while Switzerland highlighted multiple human rights violations and called for an end to repression.

Spain, Australia, and North Macedonia demanded an end to the persecution of human rights activists and the execution of political prisoners.

The Netherlands called for an extension of the UN fact-finding mission’s mandate, saying Iran has committed "crimes against humanity."

Belgium said the sharp rise in executions was deeply concerning, while Albania condemned the Islamic Republic’s attempts to assassinate dissidents.

Chile described a recent visit by a UN human rights delegation to Iran as a positive step but stressed that "without gender equality, there is no democracy."

Iran's allies push back against criticism of Tehran's human rights record

In contrast, Iran's ally, Venezuela, dismissed the UN fact-finding mission as a politically motivated effort to pressure Iran.

North Korea, also an ally of Iran, accused the international community of systematically targeting Iran and called on the Human Rights Council to end its "double standards."

Allies China, Venezuela, Cuba, and Ethiopia also defended Iran’s human rights record, with Ethiopia criticizing what it called the "politicization" of the issue.

Sudan also said that Iran’s human rights situation was improving and called for respect for each country’s right to determine its own approach to human rights.

Jamal Amer told Reuters late on Monday that the Houthis would continue their actions despite US military strikes and requests from allies, including Iran.

"There will be no talk of any dialing down of operations before ending the aid blockade in Gaza. Iran is not interfering in our decision but what is happening is that it mediates sometimes but it cannot dictate things," Amer said.

This comes as two senior Iranian officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity that Tehran had delivered a verbal message to the Houthi envoy in Tehran on Friday, urging them to de-escalate. Amer said, however, that he had not been informed of any message Iran delivered to the Houthi envoy in Tehran.

Iran's Foreign Minister asked Oman, a known mediator with the Houthis, to convey a similar message during a visit to Muscat earlier this week, according to Reuters.

Iran has not made any public comment about recent outreach to the Houthis over their renewed action. Tehran says the group takes decisions independently, a statement echoed by the Houthis themselves.

"(The US) is threatening Iran and hitting Yemen. Now all scenarios are possible. We will do what they will do to us. If they are hitting us from (US aircraft carrier USS Harry S) Truman, we will retaliate by hitting Truman," the Houthi foreign minister said.

Amer acknowledged messages from other powers to de-escalate, but declared, "Now we see that Yemen is at war with the US and that means that we have a right to defend ourselves with all possible means, so escalation is likely."

US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Monday that it will be punished if its Yemeni allies the Houthis retaliate against a US air assault over the weekend, escalating his rhetoric against Tehran.

"Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Trump on Saturday ordered large-scale military strikes against dozens of targets in Yemen controlled by Tehran-backed Houthi armed group, saying the attacks aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation through shipping lanes the militants have targeted.

Earlier this week, IRGC Commander Hossein Salami denied US accusations of Iranian control over the Houthis' actions.

"We have always declared, and we declare today, that the Yemenis are an independent and free nation in their own land and have an independent national policy," Salami said.

"Ansarullah, as the representative of the Yemenis, makes its own strategic decisions, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has no role in setting the national or operational policies of any movement in the resistance front, including Ansarullah in Yemen," he added.

"Since the start of Esfand (February 19), at least 770 people have been injured in these incidents, a 26% increase compared to last year," said Babak Yektaparast, spokesperson for Iran's Emergency Organization, in an interview with state broadcaster IRIB.

He added that 91 people remain hospitalized due to severe injuries, 57 have suffered amputations, 200 sustained eye injuries, and 285 suffered burns.

The Islamic Republic’s crackdown over the years has gradually turned the ancient festival of lighting bonfires before Nowruz, known as Chaharshanbeh Suri, into a night of youth defying authorities.

Despite its evolving nature, the festival remains a deeply rooted cultural event—one that continues to reflect both the resilience of tradition and the defiance of Iran’s youth.