Tehran signals defense preparedness as US weighs next steps

While the US has been pushing for resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq, talks to resume pumping crude through Turkey have collapsed for the second time in a week, official sources confirmed to Reuters.

The breakdown extends a two-year deadlock that has stalled crude flows from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port.

It also complicates President Trump’s strategy of boosting Iraqi oil supply to keep global prices in check while simultaneously increasing pressure on Iran by cutting off its access to cheap crude.

"There is strong insistence from the US side on ensuring the success of the negotiations by any means," a US government official close to the talks told Reuters.

For Baghdad, however, the standoff is part of a larger dilemma. As Trump revives his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, Iraq finds itself squeezed between two powerful allies—Washington and Tehran.

Not only is Iraq under growing pressure to restart oil exports, but also to curb Iran’s access to its financial system and restrict militia activity—moves that, in Washington’s view, would make Iraq more independent from Tehran.

Yet, for Iraq to fully align with US demands is unrealistic, given the 2,500 US troops still stationed in the country and last year’s $430 million in US military and economic aid.

Washington exerts financial pressure on Iran via Iraq

Beyond oil, the US is also tightening its grip on Iraq’s financial system in an effort to sever Tehran’s economic lifelines.

Last week, at the US Treasury’s request, Iraq’s central bank blocked five more private banks from accessing US dollars, according to Reuters. The move is part of a broader campaign to limit Tehran’s access to hard currency.

Additionally, Trump’s administration is reviewing all existing sanctions waivers that allow Iran to benefit economically, including the waiver that permits Iraq to purchase Iranian electricity and gas. If revoked, Iraq would be forced to find alternative energy sources or risk blackouts.

Iraqi leaders, however, appear to be pushing back slightly.

In an interview with Al Hadath, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein acknowledged US pressure but rejected the idea that Baghdad would fully align with Trump’s anti-Iran strategy.

“The United States proposed measures to increase pressure on Iran, but Baghdad is committed to balancing its relationships with both Washington and Tehran,” he said.

For now, there are no signs that Trump will escalate pressure immediately, but his unpredictability leaves Baghdad weighing not just whether it can rein in Iran’s influence—but whether it wants to.

“Iran is very alone at the moment” said Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.

The push for a resolution to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish Workers Party against the Turkish state comes as the Middle East's tectonic plates shift and global alliances are in flux as President Donald Trump cast upends US commitments.

"We have a completely changed strategic situation in the Middle East," said Barkey, "no one at the moment has any dominance in the Middle East and it's up for grabs."

"Iran, for the foreseeable will not be able to do what it used to do in the past," added Barkey.

After 15-months of direct combat and proxy warfare pitting Iran against Israel throughout the region, Tehran has come off worse.

It's main ally Hezbollah in Lebanon took a heavy toll from an Israeli ground invasion and air strikes. Most notably, Iran's oldest ally in Syria's Assad dynasty was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels closer to Turkey, giving Ankara a new regional ward.

How Turkey benefits from peace with the PKK

The jailed leader of the PKK Abdullah Ocalan called on its members to lay down arms in an address from his island prison near Istanbul on Feb. 27.

That announcement was followed by a ceasefire days later which ended 40 years of armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.

While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rapprochement is largely driven by domestic political considerations to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, Turkey stands to likely make gains in Northern Iraq, where many PKK fighters are stationed.

Turkey’s gains may be Iran’s losses.

“Both Turkey and Iran would like to influence Iraqi Kurds,” said Barkey.

The Turks and PKK making peace formally will help in those efforts to increase influence.

The relationship between Turkey and Iran Barkey characterized as complex, but one in which there are at least cordial ties and a stable border. Both Islamic nations, however, are revisionist with ideals of grandeur.

Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic last month that Iran's foreign policy of relying on militias led to more losses than gains.

Shifting tectonic plates

Recent diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Ankara represents a broader shift in the Middle East.

Add to the mix Turkey reportedly offering to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, contingent on the war ending with Russia – and Israel, striking southern Syria and attempting to increase ties with Syrian Kurds.

Israel says it part of a new policy to demilitarize southern Syria, but the new government led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) hardline Islamist group which is close to Turkey has denounced Israel.

“The Israelis also are risking by going too far into trying to punish the Syrians, forcing the Syrians, essentially to look for allies,” said Barkey on Eye for Iran.

One ally that Damascus will not reach out to is Tehran, maintaining its anti-Islamic republic stance.

“That’s it,” said Barkey on there being zero chance that Iran could reestablish itself in Syria, while Ankara enjoys a close relationship with the new HTS leaders.

“The Syrians and HTS blame Iran for propping Assad in power all these years, that Assad would not have succeeded in staying in power this long, or even winning the civil war if it wasn't for Iranian support.”

Reports: The offer of Turkish peacekeepers in Ukraine

Turkey is not signaling support of Ukraine by offering up peacekeepers, said Barkey.

Rather it's a chance for Erdogan to appear relevant on the world stage. Iran, on the other, despite its relationship with Russia, is irrelevant.

“Before Iran was a very useful if not a direct instrument of the Russians but a useful actor on the international scene because it created so many problems for the United States and its allies,” said Barkey.

Barkey questioned Iran's ability to send ballistic missiles to Russia after significant blows by Israel to its stockpile.

Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran over potential nuclear talks.

"No leader has done more for Russia than Trump, so Moscow could pressure Iran," Barkey told Eye for Iran.

"It is quite possible that the Russians will put some pressure on the Iranians, whether it's real or make believe," said Barkey.

The changing alliances, new world order and the stable unpredictability of Trump, may further destabilize the Islamic Republic while Turkey gains the upper hand in the region.

You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.

“The amount of rainfall in Tehran province since the start of the current water year has been the lowest in 57 years,” head of Tehran's Water and Wastewater Company Mohsen Ardakani said on Friday.

The four reservoirs supplying Tehran's water are only six percent full, he added, urging the capital's residents to bring down use.

Water consumption has surged as Iranians embark on their traditional extensive household clean-up before their New Year on March 20th.

On March 1, the city hit a record 48,000 liters per second in consumption—a 20 percent increase despite the cold weather.

“This kind of surge is something we’ve never seen before,” Tehran's water company said in a statement.

Beyond Tehran, much of Iran is struggling with severe water shortages, with nationwide rainfall dropping by 45 percent compared to last year and dam inflows down 29 percent from the five-year average.

Iran has been classified as “extremely high water stress” by the United Nations, which means the crisis may bring about lasting economic, environmental, and social consequences if the trend continues.

Protests over water and its allocation are common in Iran, especially in the country's arid central regions like Isfahan, where farmers blame the government for the mounting crisis.

The situation has also fueled regional tensions, with Iran accusing Afghanistan’s new-built Pashdan Dam of restricting critical water flow to its eastern provinces.

"I hope that Iran, and I've written them a letter saying, I hope you're going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing for them," Trump said in a segment of the interview broadcast on Friday.

"There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal because I'm not looking to hurt Iran," Trump added. "They're great people. I know so many Iranians from this country."

The letter was swiftly dismissed by an official outlet of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, a military force which along with Khamenei is a key decision-maker, as a pointless psychological operation.

Trump made a similar approach in his first term, sending a letter with Japan's prime minister at the time Shinzo Abe. The 2019 letter was disregarded by Khamenei who said it was 'not worthy' of a reply.

Tehran's UN mission in New York said no letter from Trump has been received.

Again saying Iran would not negotiate under the strengthened sanctions Trump imposed last month, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that Israel was trying to embroil the United States and the region in a foolish war.

"It is Israel's desire to involve the other countries in the region in a war. It is Israel's desire to draw America into a war," he said in an interview with AFP.

This is precisely an Israeli plan to drag America into war, and America is extremely vulnerable if it enters a war in the region. They themselves know this."

'One way or the other'

Trump added in his interview that a nuclear deal would be a victory for Iran.

"I think they want to get that letter," he said. "The other alternative is we have to do something, because you can't let another nuclear weapon."

"I'm not sure that everybody agrees with me. But we can make a deal that would be just as good as if you won militarily," US president added. "Something's going to happen one way or the other."

The letter comes after the Trump administration broke with decades of US policy to negotiate directly in recent weeks with the Iran-backed Palestinian Hamas movement it views as a terrorist organization.

Trump’s remarks come as his administration ramps up pressure on Tehran through renewed economic sanctions and enforcement measures targeting Iran’s oil exports.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined the administration’s updated "maximum pressure" campaign, saying that the goal is to push Iran’s economy to the brink by tightening restrictions on its oil trade.

"Making Iran broke again will mark the beginning of our updated sanctions policy," Bessent told the Economic Club of New York, highlighting the impact of US sanctions on the Iranian rial, which has lost half its value in the past six months.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, addressing parliament on Sunday, acknowledged increasing economic pressure, saying that Iranian tankers now face growing uncertainty in unloading their cargoes due to heightened US enforcement.

Hugo Shorter's summons came after Britain said it would put Iran's intelligence and security establishment on the highest tier of a foreign influence watchlist on Tuesday, toughening London's stance on perceived political interference by Tehran.

Under the designation, Iran and anybody acting on its behalf would be deemed a potential security threat and compelled to register their activities in the UK. Not doing so would potentially incur a five-year prison sentence.

According to Iran’s official news agency IRNA, Alireza Yousefi, assistant foreign minister and director general for Western Europe at Iran’s foreign ministry, met with Shorter on Friday.

IRNA's report added that during the meeting Yousefi told Shorter that Britian's "biased stance and unfounded allegations" contradict international law and diplomatic norms, further deepening Iranian distrust of the UK’s policies toward Iran.

The report cited Shorter as saying he would relay the message to London.

Earlier on Thursday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei also condemned the move, saying, "Any government that makes baseless accusations against the Iranian nation or takes hostile actions against them must be held accountable."

Under the new designation, Iran and any individuals acting on its behalf will be required to register their activities in the UK or face possible prison sentences of up to five years.

Referring to past British involvement in Iran’s internal affairs, Baghaei added, "You accuse Iran of what you yourselves are skilled at: interfering in the internal affairs of nations! But this is no longer the 19th century."