Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
More than half of the tankers sanctioned three days ago by the United States for carrying Iran's oil have ceased operations outside Chinese or Iranians terminals, an investigation by Iran International reveals.
The sanctions announced on February 24 followed similar measures by the US Treasury in late 2024, targeting ultra-large crude carriers in Iran's shadow fleet.
Such vessels, widely referred to as VLCCs, or very large crude carriers, can carry up to 2 million barrels of oil, far more than what a normal or large tanker can carry.
The VLCCs are essential for Iran's oil shipment, hence their targeting by the US Treasury since October last year.
With the latest US sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, nearly two-thirds of the 126 VLCCs shipping Iranian oil have now been blacklisted, according to oil tanker tracking data, forcing a significant number to abandon Iran and turn to transporting Russian oil.
Trump administration’s long road
Although stricter sanctions have complicated oil transportation for Iran’s VLCCs, claiming that Iran’s oil exports will face severe disruption and a catastrophic decline would be an exaggeration.
United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has identified 503 tankers with a combined capacity of 61 million tons of oil (over 350 million barrels), but sanctions currently cover less than 45% of this total capacity.
An investigation by Iran International shows that to maintain an average daily oil transit of 1.3 million barrels, as observed in recent months, Iran needs 45 VLCCs. Currently, 47 VLCCs linked to Iranian oil smuggling remain unsanctioned.
Meanwhile, dozens of VLCCs worldwide have surpassed 20 years of age in the past year, with each valued at an average of $25 million. Operators of the shadow fleet could potentially purchase some of these aging vessels. Notably, the number of foreign tankers involved in smuggling Iranian oil has surged sevenfold over the past five years.
In January 2024, China banned sanctioned tankers from docking at Shandong Port, its largest terminal for Iranian crude imports, causing Iranian oil offloading to drop to 850,000 barrels per day. However, a recent policy shift privatized part of the port, facilitating the reception of sanctioned crude cargoes. As a result, Iranian oil discharges in China surged to over 1.7 million barrels per day in February, according to industry intelligence firm Kpler.
Thus, it appears that the US still has a long road ahead to achieve what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as a “90% reduction goal” in Iran’s oil exports.
Previously, several oil tanker tracking companies, in interviews with Iran International, estimated that Iran’s daily oil exports could drop by one-third in the coming months. However, they all agreed that such a scenario depends entirely on China's cooperation with the US.
Iran’s Difficult Situation
While foreign energy analysts and media mostly focus on Iran’s oil export volumes, the most critical issue for Iran—and especially for the US—is its oil export revenue.
Oil tanker tracking data from recent months indicate that Iran’s export volume has declined by around 25%. However, Iran’s domestic financial data suggests that its oil revenue has been cut in half, dropping below $1.8 billion per month.
This clearly highlights the soaring costs Iran has incurred to bypass US sanctions in recent months.
Meanwhile, Masoumeh Aghapour, an economic advisor to Iran’s president, acknowledged the country’s severe foreign currency shortages on February 25, just a day after the latest US sanctions targeted oil-related companies and tankers.
“We have a currency problem. Let’s be frank. Trump has played a major role in our forex market. The situation has become exponentially more difficult for us in the past two weeks,” she said.
Since early September, Iran’s national currency, the rial, has lost half of its value due to setbacks in the region and Trump’s election, as he has pledged to significantly cut Tehran’s oil exports.
