Iran advocates closer ties with Russia as Lavrov visits Tehran

Tehran and Moscow say Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, will discuss mutual relations, trade, and economic cooperation, as well as key international issues, including the situation in Syria, during the one-day visit.

The visit follows discussions in Ankara on Monday and comes just a week after his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Riyadh.

Delivering a message from the United States to Iran?

Iranian media, analysts, and the public have closely scrutinized recent visits by high-ranking foreign officials to Tehran, including Lavrov and the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who met with Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last week. These visits are widely interpreted as potential mediation efforts between Tehran and Washington or as channels for delivering messages from the Trump administration.

A commentary published Tuesday by Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, acknowledged that the purpose of Lavrov’s visit might extend beyond the official agenda. However, it argued that many experts doubt Lavrov is carrying a direct message from the Trump administration. Instead, it suggested that Lavrov might share his assessment of Washington’s approach to Iran and relay Iran’s desired roadmap back to the US in a similar manner.

The commentary also speculated that Lavrov could be conveying Moscow’s own message to Tehran, warning against shifting Iran’s nuclear doctrine or withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as some Iranian ultra-hardliners advocate.

Speaking to the reformist Etemad daily, foreign policy analyst Abdolreza Faraji-Rad cast doubt on the likelihood of Lavrov delivering a direct US message to Tehran.

If such a message were being conveyed, he suggested it might involve Washington offering a temporary reduction in “maximum pressure” sanctions—reimposed by Trump’s executive order on January 20—in exchange for Iran agreeing to direct negotiations over its nuclear program.

Others suggested that Lavrov is simply planning to inform the Islamic Republic about its changing relations with the Trump administration and Ukraine negotiations.

Concerns about Iran being used by Russia as a bargaining chip

Some Iranian media and analysts warned that Iran could be betrayed by Russia and become a bargaining chip in potential negotiations between the Trump and Putin administrations, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict.

A commentary published Tuesday by Khabar Online, a news outlet close to former conservative Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, compared Lavrov’s recent meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the planned Trump-Putin meeting compared by some to the Yalta Conference of February 1945, which reshaped global geopolitics. The article warned that “Iran is also in danger.”

Khabar Online also quoted former chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, who argued that Iran is merely a bargaining chip in these negotiations. “I am concerned that Iran may be sacrificed for peace [in Ukraine],” he stated.

Reza Taghizadeh, a Glasgow-based Iranian political commentator, echoed similar concerns on X, speculating that “Lavrov's goal in Tehran is to convince the Islamic Republic to surrender its nuclear program and disband the ‘axis of resistance’ in exchange for avoiding an Israeli military attack and blocking [its] oil exports! … Are the Russians securing [concessions from the US over] Ukraine while offering up Iran [in return]?”

"Iran's position in the nuclear talks is completely clear, and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions. There is no possibility of direct negotiations between us and the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this manner," Abbas Araghchi said.

He was speaking at a joint press conference with Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, on a visit to Tehran.

"Regarding Iran's nuclear issue, we will move forward and coordinate our positions in cooperation with our friends in Russia and China," Araghchi added as the trio grow ever closer.

In 2018, during his first term, Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions or JCPOA, and imposed 'maximum pressure' sanctions on Tehran, practically reducing Iran’s oil exports to less than 500,000 barrels per day and blocking the revenues in foreign banks. 

Lavrov's visit also follows a new wave of US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry, the country’s primary source of revenue.

He arrived in Tehran for discussions with his counterpart a few days after Moscow and Washington held talks in Saudi Arabia.

Earlier this month, Trump reinstated his "maximum pressure" campaign, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero—reviving Washington’s hardline approach from his first term.

However, in spite of Tehran's position, Lavrov remained optimistic. "The capacity for diplomacy regarding Iran's nuclear program still exists," state-media quoted him as saying.

Moscow and Tehran have deepened their defense ties since the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, a partnership that has increasingly drawn Western ire. China too, has become an ever stronger ally, the three conducting multiple military drills together.

Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Lavrov as a follow up to President Donald Trump’s conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on negotiations to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, according to a statement by the US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.

"President Trump wants to stop the killing; the United States wants peace and is using its strength in the world to bring countries together," Bruce said. "President Trump is the only leader in the world who can get Ukraine and Russia to agree to that."

Taghi Azad Armaki told Etemad, a pro-reform newspaper supporting President Masoud Pezeshkian, that without lifting US sanctions a wave of protests over socio-economic issues is likely.

He criticized the government for converting social and economic problems into security issues by criminalizing actions such as protests and opposition to social media censorship, rather than addressing the underlying problems.

Armaki emphasized that soaring prices, especially in housing and healthcare, along with the rapid depreciation of the Iranian currency and widespread poverty, are placing immense pressure on Iranians. He noted that while government officials occasionally acknowledge these issues, they have yet to propose any meaningful solutions.

The sociologist warned, “If this situation continues, protests are likely to erupt in the near future.” He criticized the government for downplaying serious issues in energy, housing, poverty, and social delinquency.

He urged the government to acknowledge its limitations and focus its resources on meeting the nation’s basic needs, such as ensuring the proper distribution of essentials like bread, water and energy.

Former Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli echoed these concerns, telling the press that “the extent of accumulated demands and dissent in Iran is a serious cause for concern.” He noted that the current situation is even more troubling than in 2019, when hundreds of thousands protested against rising fuel prices.

During that sudden wave of unrest in over 100 cities, the government swiftly responded with military and vigilante forces, resulting in the deaths of 1,500 protesters, according to a Reuters estimate.

Meanwhile, the IRGC-linked newspaper Javan criticized hardliners in the parliament (Majles), warning that “while protests more intense than those of 2019 loom on the horizon, opponents of President Pezeshkian and even some who backed him in the election are wasting time and energy trying to unseat him and his ministers.”

Javan warned that this could trigger a series of deep-rooted political crises in the upcoming Iranian year, which begins in about four weeks. The newspaper suggested that the situation could worsen if combined with “foreign operations,” likely referring to potential Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites.

In a similar vein, conservative commentator Mohammad Mohajeri criticized hardline lawmakers for pushing to impeach Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati, accusing him of “failing to improve the country’s economic situation.”

Mohajeri criticized the hardline lawmakers, saying, “The MPs think that dismissing the minister will improve the economic situation, but their approach is like an ugly man trying to calm a crying baby by making faces—his appearance only made the baby cry even harder.” He added, “You are the problem. It’s your actions that have created these insurmountable challenges.”

Several reports in Iranian media on Monday highlighted the severity of Iran’s economic crisis and the financial struggles facing its citizens. The conservative Nameh News website noted, “The government's inefficiency is worsening the economic crisis, compounded by significant shortcomings in sectors such as energy, housing, and healthcare.”

Economic expert and a well-known businessman, Majid Reza Hariri, told Nameh News that when he questioned some MPs about their push to impeach the economy minister, they admitted, “The situation might get worse, but we need to show our voters that we are just as dissatisfied with the current state of affairs.”

Commenting on the Pezeshkian administration's weaknesses, Hariri remarked, “I believe we effectively have no government, as no one is willing to take responsibility for the economic problems.”

Brent crude futures rose 15 cents to $74.93 a barrel by 0724 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 23 cents to $70.93 a barrel.

"In the short term, I continue to think crude oil is looking for a base. The fresh US sanctions announced on Iran overnight will likely assist with this as will the Iraqi oil minister's commitment to rein in its oversupply," Reuters quoted IG market analyst Tony Sycamore as saying.

The United States rolled out new Iran-related sanctions, the Treasury and State Departments announced on Monday, targeting companies and individuals including the head of Iran's national oil company.

The measures target over 30 brokers, tanker operators and shipping firms the treasury department accuses of facilitating the trade from which Iran derives most of its state revenue, including for regional military operations Washington opposes.

They come after President Donald Trump this month reinstated the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran from his first term, with the stated aim of driving its oil sales to zero.

Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), pumped 3.2 million barrels per day in January, according to a Reuters survey.

“The model for the country's salvation is to turn to the people. If we want to solve the economy, the solution is to turn to the private sector and entrust work to the people," Major General Mohammad Bagheri said.

Iran's armed forces, the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) in particular, have benefited from previous waves of privatisation, taking over fully or in part the companies and businesses that the government puts up for sale.

Bagheri's call comes amid reports that the Iranian Armed Forces, including the IRGC, will receive a substantial 51% (approximately €12 billion) of the government's €24 billion oil and gas export revenues in the upcoming budget.

The budget bill for the next Iranian year (starting March 21) details that while 37.5% of oil and gas revenue goes to the government, over half of that portion funds the military.

Last year, a Reuters report indicated that the IRGC already controls up to half of Iran's oil exports, funding military operations and allies.

Recent Central Bank statistics also show a significant decline in private sector involvement in foreign trade, replaced by government entities that receive the majority of foreign currency.

Customs data further shows that government-controlled petrochemical, steel, oil, and gas products dominate exports.

The country’s new budget allows the Oil Ministry to contract with third parties for oil and gas field operations to settle debts, raising fears that these contracts will fall into the hands of the so-called "Khosoulati" entities—quasi-state organizations controlled by insiders of the ruling system, rather than genuine private sector businesses.

HamMihan newspaper warned last year that such a policy risks transferring national resources to entities lacking the necessary capacity and resources, further entrenching government-linked organizations in the economy.