The US-led coalition against ISIS has begun constructing a military base in Kobani, northern Syria, as clashes continue between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey-aligned rebel groups.
A convoy carrying construction materials and logistical reinforcements was seen heading to Kobani on Thursday, according to the SDF-affiliated North Press Agency.
The convoy included prefabricated structures, trench-digging machinery, surveillance equipment, and fuel tanks as reported by the New Region.
It comes amidst renewed violence in areas controlled by the SDF, following Turkey-backed forces' campaigns that began in late November which have resulted in significant casualties and displaced thousands of civilians.
The recent ousting of the Assad government, led by the Turkey-backed rebel coalition Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, has reshaped the region.
The collapse of Assad on December 8 marked the end of his family's five-decade rule, presenting a strategic setback for Iran.
Syria has historically served as a key conduit for Iran to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon and bolster its military allies in the region. The loss of this corridor undermines Tehran's regional influence and disrupts its long-standing strategy in the Levant.
Iran’s deep military and financial commitments in Syria now face diminishing returns. Rival actors such as Turkey and Persian Gulf Arab states are poised to fill the void, further isolating Hezbollah and compelling Tehran to reconsider its regional posture amidst intensifying domestic economic pressures.
Turkey has intensified its efforts to capture strategic locations from the SDF, including Kobani and the Tishrin Dam on the Euphrates River. Backed by Turkish warplanes, these operations underscore Ankara's intent to neutralize what it views as a security threat posed by the Kurdish-led forces. Despite these efforts, the SDF has so far resisted the advances.
As the US's primary ally in the fight against ISIS, the SDF controls nearly a quarter of Syrian territory, primarily in the northeast and east. However, Turkey continues to press for the disarmament of the group, insisting that it poses a direct risk to its national security.
“There are moments like now when the old era is dead, the old illusions are dead, and various things are killing it. And I suspect that the regime in Tehran will be gone in the next few years as well. So I think there’s a real opportunity for freedom to spread and for opportunity to spread,” he said, speaking on the Conflicted podcast on Wednesday.
He attributed the Islamic Republic’s weakening to the fallout from the 2020 US drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, a key Iranian military commander, calling it a pivotal moment that disrupted Iran’s influence across the Middle East.
“I’m always struck by how some people can be much more seminal, much more key, pivotal to an organization than you realize at the time. The reality is when Qassem Suleimani was killed in January 2020, he held in his head all the relationships, all the deals for everybody around the region,” he said.
“He was replaced, but he wasn’t really, because nobody could replace the personal 20-year relationships that he held. That’s really the unpicking. So I have to say, I know it’s not popular, but President Trump, effectively, was the trigger that began the fall of the Assad regime.”
Tugendhat highlighted growing dissent within Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), where younger members reportedly view the older leadership as corrupt and ineffective. This generational divide, he said, reflects broader frustrations with the Islamic Republic’s inability to maintain its standing both at home and abroad.
“Young members of the IRGC are saying two things. One, the old guard are corrupt and incompetent. That’s why Hezbollah has been hung out to dry and defeated. That’s why old allies like Assad have fallen ... The second thing they’re saying is that they’re hearing rumors, I don’t know how true they are, but they’re hearing rumors that the ayatollah and the government in Tehran wants to talk to the Americans to try and find a way out of this and perhaps hang on.”
He suggested that rumors of potential talks between Tehran and Washington about a new nuclear deal are further fueling tensions within the IRGC, with hardliners fiercely opposing any engagement with the US, particularly after Soleimani’s killing.
Since Soleimani’s death, Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have repeatedly vowed revenge against the US and those involved in the operation. However, the threats have largely failed to materialize into substantive action, underscoring what Tugendhat described as a diminishing capacity to project power regionally.
In Syria, where Soleimani played a crucial role in sustaining Assad’s government, the situation has shifted dramatically. Tugendhat argued that the West has a unique opportunity to help rebuild the country into a stabilizing force in the region.
“Frankly, if we get Syria right in 10 years, Syria could be absolutely not just a pole of stability but a fantastic economic powerhouse in the region, exporting stability and civilization, as it has done for quite literally tens of thousands of years, to the rest of the world again,” he said.
Tugendhat also criticized the West’s inconsistent policies in the Middle East, which he believes allowed adversaries like Russia to gain influence. He pointed to key moments, such as the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and inaction following Assad’s use of chemical weapons in 2013, as examples of missed opportunities to assert strategic leadership.