Iran International
The escalators do not work. What works here is hijab enforcement. Welcome to Sadeqieh subway station in western Tehran! A link between the rest of the Iranian capital and its nearest densely populated suburb Karaj.
The loudspeaker says the next train to downtown Tehran does not stop here as it is fully packed. In less than a minute, passengers are forced to step back from the edge of the platform and watch a train with its doors open dashing away in high speed as passengers inside cling onto whatever that can help keep them on board. A subway train with doors malfunctioning is another sign of breakdown in public services.
The Kayhan newspaper, a hardline daily associated with the office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, recently suggested that US President-elect Donald Trump should be assassinated, claiming that this would please Allah. Such statements are profoundly unacceptable by any standard. Yet, the government, which maintains tight control over domestic media, allows this newspaper to make threats against a foreign elected official.
The "reformist" press adopts a slightly more moderate tone. Etemad newspaper reported that 12 economists have advised President Masoud Pezeshkian to address the shortage of electricity and fuel by raising prices, suggesting that higher costs will lead to reduced demand. The suggestion comes as 40% annual inflation has impoverished one third of the population in the past five years.
Outside the station, traffic police stop women riding motorcycles. A 16th-century cleric, Mohammad Bagher Majlesi, known as Allamah, or “the most learned man” in Isfahan, issued a ruling in his interpretation of Shariah law that women should not sit on saddles, claiming they might experience unchaste sensations from the contact with the saddle. Confiscated motorcycles line the sidewalk, awaiting a male family member to come and collect them.
For many men and women, motorcycles are the most practical way to navigate Tehran’s heavy traffic. Women are allowed to ride as passengers, and Shariah law generally overlooks it when they hold onto the male driver’s waist for support. There are different rules for the driver’s seat and the passenger seat, as if there were two different Gods governing each position.
The government attempts to strictly enforce hijab regulations, at times using force, though many women continue to resist. The latest enforcement initiative is the Hijab Clinic, also called the “Clinic to Give Up Hijablessness.” The wording gives it the tone of a center for drug rehabilitation. An Iranian journalist commented on X: “This political system clings to absurd measures while grappling with multiple crises. Such a system is bound for decline; power, water, and gas shortages, along with the opening of hijab clinics, are signs of its collapse.”
Despite the government's strict stance on hijab, two of the most widely shared stories on social media this year involve scandals surrounding state officials and celebrities. While authorities say they made a few arrests in Rasht, related to a sex scandal caught on video, they have remained silent about another incriminating video involving the granddaughter of a Friday prayers Imam in a different city.
The government has attributed widespread power outages to its decision to halt the use of polluting fuels in power plants, yet residents continue to complain about the smog that settles over the city like a thick blanket. It was only after mounting criticism that Government Spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani acknowledged that some power plants are still burning mazut, one of the most harmful fuels available. An energy expert reports that Iran burned approximately 8.2 billion liters of mazut in urban areas last year. The reason: shortage of natural gas, when Iran has the world’s second-largest reserves.
Amid widespread public frustration over government inefficiency, viral photos have surfaced of five “apple polishers,” including two movie stars, a footballer, a TV presenter, and a wrestling coach, who continue to praise the government’s “achievements” in trivial areas or even compliment the President’s mannerisms. This seems to be a public tactic for naming and shaming those who turn a blind eye to the struggles of ordinary people.
Speaking of naming and shaming, one of the biggest stories circulating involves a whistleblower revealing financial corruption among several former officials, including two former heads of the Iranian Judiciary. Social media users have criticized state-controlled media for selectively covering these cases while omitting others implicated in significant corruption scandals, such as former Tehran mayors Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Alireza Zakani, as well as the city's Friday prayer Imam, Kazem Sedighi.
It is these paradoxes and hypocrisies—scandals in a political system that prides itself on chastity, financial corruption in the world’s most prominent theocracy, and a ban on love and alcohol in a land whose literary heritage celebrates both—that led one of Iran’s most renowned contemporary poets, Ahmad Shamlou, to write: “These are strange days, my darling. They flag love at the crossroads, and they smell your mouth at checkpoints to make sure you have not said: I love you.”
“Important and straightforward talks with DG @rafaelmgrossi this morning,” Araghchi wrote on X, referencing his meeting with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi on Thursday. “Differences can be resolved through cooperation and dialogue. We agreed to proceed with courage and goodwill.” However, he added that Iran would not negotiate “under pressure and intimidation.”
President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday that Tehran was prepared to cooperate with the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA to clear up "alleged ambiguities about the peaceful nuclear activity of our country", Iranian state media reported.
Grossi’s visit to Tehran, part of a high-level effort to de-escalate nuclear tensions, also included talks with Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization. IAEA's Board of Governors will hold its quarterly meeting next week, where Iran can face a resolution criticizing its lack of cooperation with the UN watchdog.
In a joint press conference, Eslami warned of immediate reciprocal actions should the IAEA Board of Governors issue a resolution targeting Iran's nuclear program.
“We have repeatedly announced that any interventionist resolution regarding Iran’s nuclear affairs will undoubtedly face immediate actions,” Eslami said. “We will not allow pressure to dictate the course of our peaceful nuclear activities.”
Later on Thursday, Tehran media reported that Grossi will visit nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz tomorrow. According to these reports, he described this visit as very important, emphasizing that it could provide him with an accurate assessment of the quality and scale of Iran's nuclear program. This marks a shift in his approach, as he did not inspect any facilities during his previous visit to Iran.
Reuters quoted some diplomats on Tuesday that European powers are advocating for a new resolution against Iran at the UN atomic watchdog's board meeting next week to pressure Tehran over its lack of cooperation.
"Our concerns about Iranian nuclear activity are well known. It feels a natural point to be asking the IAEA for a thorough report. That then provides a basis to deal with Iranian behavior," a European diplomat said.
Eslami; however, described Iran’s engagement with the IAEA as continuous and constructive. “These actions tarnish the credibility of international organizations,” he said. “The United Nations and its affiliated bodies must fulfill their responsibilities in addressing these issues.”
Grossi, addressing transparency and oversight concerns, touched upon the importance of IAEA verification, which he said requires a clear framework. He said there must be a comprehensive basis for the activities, including a detailed list of nuclear materials and clarity on capabilities, adding that this applies not only to Iran but to all nations.
On the potential for military attacks on nuclear facilities, Grossi warned of severe consequences. “Such attacks could have very serious radiological consequences,” he said. “The IAEA and its member states have previously expressed strong opposition to such actions.”
Grossi emphasized the need for tangible progress, saying, “It is indispensable to get at this point in time to some concrete, tangible, visible results that will indicate that
this joint work is improving the situation and bringing clarification to things and in a general sense is moving us away from conflict and ultimately war.”
Grossi’s visit follows his earlier warnings that diplomatic avenues to resolve Iran’s nuclear activities are narrowing. Speaking at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, he urged Iran to enhance transparency, saying, “We need to find ways of giving the agency more visibility.”
The visit comes after weeks of tensions in the region, particularly between Iran and Israel. Ahead of his trip, Grossi told AFP, “The Iranian administration must understand that the international situation is becoming increasingly tense and that it is imperative to find ways to reach diplomatic solutions.”
Meanwhile, Israel has expressed alarm over Iran’s nuclear progress, as has the international community. Donald Trump's election has added further uncertainty to the future of the 2015 nuclear deal. Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the accord unraveled its framework, despite subsequent efforts to revive it. Grossi has described the accord as an “empty shell,” calling for a new framework to address the current challenges.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), brokered between Iran and six world powers, sought to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. However, in the absence of a binding agreement, Iran’s nuclear program has significantly expanded.
According to the IAEA, Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpile has grown, with enrichment levels reaching 60%—approaching the 90% threshold required for weaponization. While Tehran denies any intention of developing nuclear weapons, the expanded program has fueled international concerns.
As more names trickle in, it has become apparent that this next administration will not follow the Biden-Harris policy of lighter sanctions and relying mainly on diplomatic overtures with Iran. More likely pressure will increase on Tehran to extract concessions and reach a more comprehensive deal on both Iran's nuclear program and its regional adventures.
The president-elect has appointed Elise Stefanik as the US Ambassador to the United Nations. As the representative of New York's 21st Congressional District and chair of the House Republican Conference, her role will focus on key UN issues, particularly regarding Israel and Iran. Stefanik has been a strong supporter of Israel and Trump's "peace through strength" policy, and recently endorsed a return to Trump's maximum pressure strategy against Iran.
Mike Waltz, the man tapped to be Trump’s national security adviser in the next White House, is known as a hardliner when it comes to the Islamic Republic. The president-elect confirmed Waltz appointment in a statement Tuesday.
The Republican congressman and former special forces soldier has echoed the president-elect's calls to “finish the job” in defeating Iran-backed Hamas. He believes in maximum pressure against Iran and ensuring that Iran does not become a nuclear power.
He also has a history of opposing President Joe Biden’s policies towards Iran.
Trump also announced Senator Marco Rubio as his choice for Secretary of State, though his appointment is yet to be confirmed. Rubio, known for his hawkish views on Iran, criticized Biden's policies and has called for Israel to be free to attack Iran’s nuclear program. These appointments suggest the new administration will take a tougher stance on Iran than the Biden administration, with Senate approval needed for many of these positions.
Maximum Pressure is Back
Trump's picks for his Cabinet and his national security team seem to align with a return to maximum pressure, said Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.
“My expectation was that Trump 2.0 would look a lot like Trump 1.0, a return to maximum pressure and an emphasis on economic and diplomatic pressure on the regime, particularly through sanctions and regional isolation,” said Brew.
Diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions would likely be on the top of Trump’s agenda according to Brew.
Trump is remembered for his aggressive policy and actions toward the Islamic Republic, including the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, the tearing up of the JSPOA also known as the Iran nuclear deal and his general maximum pressure campaign against the Ayatollahs.
There are also credible reports from US intelligence that the Iranian government tried to kill Trump, and IRGC-linked telegram channels have allegedly posted death threats against him.
The Justice Department on November 8 disclosed an Iranian murder-for-hire plot to kill Trump. The Afghan national linked to Iran was charged with planning to assassinate the president-elect.
Brew believes Trump could take those attempts on his life personally and that could factor into his decision-making process when it comes to Iran.
But that doesn’t mean talking and dialogue are out of the equation.
Alex Vatanka, the founding Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said Trump is willing to create dialogue with Iran.
In 2019, Trump tasked then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to mediate talks in a trip to Iran that turned into a failed mediation effort. He was the first Japanese leader to visit Iran in four decades, but it ended in a rebuff when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told Abe, "No negotiations with Trump."
Vatanka said now it’s time for Iran to decide on talks and if they revert to their behavior like they did with Abe, then it won’t be to Iran’s advantage.
The tough team that Trump appears to be forming has Vatanka saying that the “writing is on the wall” for Iran.
“The writing is on the wall. Iran needs to find a way to compromise with the United States on all sorts of issues and probably needs to compromise with Israel.”
Will there be war?
If talks fail, the looming question is whether there will be war with Iran. The answer might not lie in the key figures Trump has chosen to lead his administration, but rather in the ones he has chosen not to appoint.
Vatanka told Iran International that Trump’s refusal to appoint former Ambassador Nikki Haley, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, may be due to his desire not to go to war.
Trump has repeatedly said and most notably after his election victory that he doesn’t want to start a war, but rather wants to end wars.
“I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to end wars,” said Trump during his victory speech in Florida on November 6.
Both Haley and Pompeo are known as neo-conservatives that promote US global military dominance.
“I don't know what the outcome of that policy debate inside the Trump team, but if the reports are true, then clearly the ones who call themselves against Forever wars, at least as of right now," said Vatanka.
But external factors, particularly the back-and-forth missile strikes between Iran and Israel, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions, could change all of that.
“Whether he wants to go to war against Iran, whether he's willing to use military action, I think that will depend on context and circumstances, particularly the circumstances surrounding Iran's nuclear program and the potential for additional military confrontations between Iran and Israel like we've seen this year with the missile strikes,” said Brew.
Some Iranian-Americans like Trump supporter and founder of “Iranians for Trump” Sarah Raviani are overjoyed with the reported cabinet choices.
As an activist pushing to influence US policy towards Iran like the work Raviani did with NUFDI and other advocates to push through the MAHSA Act, she sees the team forming around Trump as one that is sympathetic towards the Iranian people, and tough on the Islamic Republic establishment.
“These are all individuals who have a very unique understanding of the threat that is the regime in Iran,” she told Iran International.
While there are a lot of unknowns, Trump – fresh off an election win earlier this month – is emboldening a new administration that is pro-Israel and hawkish on Iran.
Pundits say besides a mutual wish to help bring the war in Gaza and Lebanon to an end, intertwined security interests play a decisive role in the significant but cautious recent improvement of relations between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia.
They say Tehran may be wary of the fact that Donald Trump’s presidency and an end to the war in Gaza and Lebanon may push Saudi Arabia forward in the path of joining the Abraham Pact and normalizing its relations with Israel.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which broke its diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2016, have already established normal diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv.
This, they believe, can completely isolate Tehran in the region at a time when sanctions have drastically damaged its economy and the threat of an all-out war with Israel hangs over its head.
“Trump’s foreign policy regarding the Persian Gulf region [during his first term] was generally giving carte blanche to Saudi Arabia and Israel while conducting a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran,” Javad Heiran-Nia, director of Persian Gulf Studies at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies, wrote Tuesday in an article published by the Iranian think-tank.
This situation, he said, could entail a US-led military coalition with Israel and Persian Gulf Arab countries to be formed. “In response, Iran has been trying to improve its relations with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates and prevent a unified US-Israeli-Arab air defense system from forming,” Heiran-Nia wrote, adding that that further convergence of Persian Gulf Arab states with Israel could tip the balance of power against the Islamic Republic and its allies in the region.
Heiran-Nia also argued that realizing that the United States was not going to give it military support against the Islamic Republic, Saudi Arabia wanted to be “a supporter of order in the region rather than a leader” after Iran-backed Houthis’ attack launched rockets and drones on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Jeddah and Riadh, has pushed Saudi Arabia to adjust its policies regarding Iran with less reliance on the United States.
Besides hoping that the Saudis could help to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon to an end, some pundits have also suggested that Iran may be counting on Riadh to play a mediatory role between Tehran and Washington when Trump takes office given the Saudi's traditional good relations with US Republicans and Trump.
“Let’s keep in mind that after the Zionist regime, it is Saudi Arabia that has the most and the strongest lobbies in the power centers of the United States, whether in the Republican Party or among Democrats, and its power of playing a role in improvement or sabotaging relations between Tehran and Washington should not be underestimated,” Persian Gulf region analyst Vahid Pour-Tajrishi wrote in Tahlil-e Bazar Tuesday.
Iran's backing of Shia Houthis has been a thorny issue in Tehran-Riadh relations. Some analysts have pointed out that Riadh, in turn, may be hoping Iran would help end years of conflict with Yemen.
The normalization of Tehran-Riadh relations on political and military levels will have a positive impact on the situation in Yemen alongside the mediatory role that Oman is currently playing between Riadh and Sanaa, journalist and political analyst Salah Al-Saqladi wrote in an article Monday entitled “Saudi-Iranian Military Coordination: What Does This Mean for Yemen” in Rai al-Youm, an Arab world digital news and opinion website.
Political analyst Ruhollah Rahimpour in a tweet Wednesday has also argued that while Iran's state media present Mohammed Bin Salman’s support for Iran as an achievement for the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, the move helps define a “leading role in the Islamic world” for the de facto Saudi ruler and leaves Iran in his debt to prevent future challenges from Tehran to this role.
Riadh broke its diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2016 when an ultra-hardliner mob attacked and vandalized the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad with Iranian security forces allegedly giving them free reign to burn diplomatic property and documents.
The attack came after Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shia cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, and the Revolutionary Guards’ promise of “harsh revenge” against the Saudis.
The two countries came nearly to the brink of a war in 2019 following the Houthis attack on Saudi oil facilities.
In 2021, Iraq initiated a mediatory effort to reconcile Tehran and Riadh which led to an agreement in March 2023 to resume their diplomatic relations. The agreement was surprisingly signed not in Baghdad but in Beijing which has deepened its relations, not only with the Islamic Republic, but also with Saudi Arabia in the past few years.
Kristi Noem is taking the helm of homeland security, John Ratcliffe as the CIA director and Pete Hegseth will be defense secretary.
Noem has been vocally supportive of Israel and branded Iran an “enemy of America”, slamming the first ever direct attack on Israel from Iran in April which saw Tehran send 350 drones and missiles to the Jewish state.
Following the attack, she posted on Instagram: “We stand with the people of Israel against this unprecedented attack. Iran is also an enemy to America. And I expect decisive action from our country on behalf of Israel.”
She was vehemently against President Barak Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, the JCPOA, and called it “poorly negotiated”.
"The Obama-era Iran deal was poorly negotiated, failed to permanently stop Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities, and undermined American security and that of our ally Israel," she said in a statement in May 2018 after Trump canned the deal.
"We should have walked away from this agreement at the very beginning, and I'm proud that President Trump has been bold enough to do so."
She had joined others in the House in voting down Obama's nuclear deal in September 2015, but the legislation was never signed into law.
With alleged attacks being plotted by Iran on US soil, Noem will be a fierce opponent as she will be closely tied to border protection, immigration and working alongside the US Secret Service.
As head of the Central Intelligence Agency, Trump loyalist John Ratcliffe will be another fierce opponent for Tehran.
As Director of National Intelligence, just weeks before the 2020 presidential election, he was among multiple officials accusing Iran of meddling in the elections. He said the Islamic Republic was responsible for a barrage of emails sent to intimidate voters.
He has accused the Biden administration of being too soft on Iran, and in the midst of Iran’s proxy war against Israel, slammed the administration for threatening to withhold weapons to the Jewish state as endangering a key regional ally.
He has been a vocal opponent of suggestions to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the terror list in the US and has been supportive of Israel’s recent operations in Iran.
He told Fox News that "what Israel has done is essentially employ 'the Trump doctrine': a maximum-pressure campaign, understanding the only way to deter terrorists like Iran and their proxies is to put your foot on their throat. Israel has done that, we should be assisting Israel in doing so.”
Trump’s pick for defense secretary will be no less challenging for Tehran. Military veteran Pete Hegseth will no doubt reverse many of the “woke” policies he criticized the Biden administration for.
The Fox News host called for military action against Iran as early as 2020. Speaking on Fox News, he said: "They are not as capable as they want the world to believe they are. They want something to sell for internal propaganda. I totally get that. None of this though changes the calculation of this regime, which is an evil regime.”
Warning about Iran's nuclear threat, he said, "I happen to believe that we can't kick the can down the road any longer in trying to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb,” calling for targeted strikes.
“What better time than now to say, we're starting the clock, you've got a week, you've got X amount of time before we start taking out your energy production facilities. We take out key infrastructure. We take out your missile sites. We take out nuclear developments," he said at the time.
Making it clear he did not want a repeat of Iraq or Afghanistan, he said he is not calling for boots on the ground or endless war, but said “Iran has been in endless war with us for 40 years. Either we put up and shut up now and stop it”.
The new appointments come on the back of other pro-Israel, anti-Iran aides.
Trump has also announced Representative Elise Stefanik of New York is to become United Nations ambassador, Representative Mike Waltz of Florida will take over as national security advisor, and it is expected that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida will become secretary of State.
All have been supportive of a "maximum pressure" approach to Iran while backing Israel in its fight against the two allies' mutual enemy.
