A CIA official has been charged with leaking classified documents allegedly revealing Israel’s plans to retaliate against Iran following an October 1 missile strike on the Jewish state, the New York Times reported on Wednesday.
Asif W. Rahman was indicted last week in a Virginia federal court on two counts of willful retention and transmission of national defense information, the newspaper reported citing court documents and informed sources.
The FBI apprehended Rahman in Cambodia on Tuesday, later transferring him to federal court in Guam to face charges.
The leaked information pertains to intelligence from US satellites detailing preparations for an Israeli air assault on Iran, aimed at retaliation for an October 1 missile attack on Israel.
Two US intelligence documents dated October 15 and 16, originally restricted to the "Five Eyes" intelligence-sharing alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States), appeared last month on the pro-Iran Telegram channel Middle East Spectator as Israel geared up to respond to the barrage of 181 ballistic missiles.
The platform’s X account lists its location as the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In a public statement, Middle East Spectator denied any direct connection to the original source of the leaks, saying, “we assume [it to be] a whistleblower within the US State Department.”
In October, Holden Tripplet, a former FBI counterintelligence official, shared his insights with Iran International, noting, “The leak, if done without official sanction by the US government, may have been intended to dissuade an Israeli strike or at least limit the overall retaliatory response.”
However, Tripplet, who served 15 years in the FBI, suggested this may be just the beginning, adding, “There may have been other documents leaked along with those, which would likely indicate someone within the US government disillusioned with US policy toward Israel. They may be attempting to damage the broader relationship.”
The leak sparked widespread criticism, with now President-elect Donald Trump taking to social media in October to intensify his attacks on the Biden-Harris administration.
“Israel has been seriously damaged and compromised … MUST FIND THE LEAKER! Israel no longer wants to share documents with the US, and who can blame them!” the former President posted on Truth Social.
Republican Senator Tom Cotton also formally appealed to President Biden, requesting biweekly briefings on the progress of the investigation into the leak.
“This leak is an outrageous betrayal of an ally and a breach of trust that will undermine our relationship with partners for years to come,” wrote Cotton, a senior member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, in a letter published by the Washington Free Beacon.
Pundits say besides a mutual wish to help bring the war in Gaza and Lebanon to an end, intertwined security interests play a decisive role in the significant but cautious recent improvement of relations between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia.
They say Tehran may be wary of the fact that Donald Trump’s presidency and an end to the war in Gaza and Lebanon may push Saudi Arabia forward in the path of joining the Abraham Pact and normalizing its relations with Israel.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which broke its diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2016, have already established normal diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv.
This, they believe, can completely isolate Tehran in the region at a time when sanctions have drastically damaged its economy and the threat of an all-out war with Israel hangs over its head.
“Trump’s foreign policy regarding the Persian Gulf region [during his first term] was generally giving carte blanche to Saudi Arabia and Israel while conducting a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran,” Javad Heiran-Nia, director of Persian Gulf Studies at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies, wrote Tuesday in an article published by the Iranian think-tank.
This situation, he said, could entail a US-led military coalition with Israel and Persian Gulf Arab countries to be formed. “In response, Iran has been trying to improve its relations with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates and prevent a unified US-Israeli-Arab air defense system from forming,” Heiran-Nia wrote, adding that that further convergence of Persian Gulf Arab states with Israel could tip the balance of power against the Islamic Republic and its allies in the region.
Heiran-Nia also argued that realizing that the United States was not going to give it military support against the Islamic Republic, Saudi Arabia wanted to be “a supporter of order in the region rather than a leader” after Iran-backed Houthis’ attack launched rockets and drones on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in Jeddah and Riadh, has pushed Saudi Arabia to adjust its policies regarding Iran with less reliance on the United States.
Besides hoping that the Saudis could help to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon to an end, some pundits have also suggested that Iran may be counting on Riadh to play a mediatory role between Tehran and Washington when Trump takes office given the Saudi's traditional good relations with US Republicans and Trump.
“Let’s keep in mind that after the Zionist regime, it is Saudi Arabia that has the most and the strongest lobbies in the power centers of the United States, whether in the Republican Party or among Democrats, and its power of playing a role in improvement or sabotaging relations between Tehran and Washington should not be underestimated,” Persian Gulf region analyst Vahid Pour-Tajrishi wrote in Tahlil-e Bazar Tuesday.
Iran's backing of Shia Houthis has been a thorny issue in Tehran-Riadh relations. Some analysts have pointed out that Riadh, in turn, may be hoping Iran would help end years of conflict with Yemen.
The normalization of Tehran-Riadh relations on political and military levels will have a positive impact on the situation in Yemen alongside the mediatory role that Oman is currently playing between Riadh and Sanaa, journalist and political analyst Salah Al-Saqladi wrote in an article Monday entitled “Saudi-Iranian Military Coordination: What Does This Mean for Yemen” in Rai al-Youm, an Arab world digital news and opinion website.
Political analyst Ruhollah Rahimpour in a tweet Wednesday has also argued that while Iran's state media present Mohammed Bin Salman’s support for Iran as an achievement for the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy, the move helps define a “leading role in the Islamic world” for the de facto Saudi ruler and leaves Iran in his debt to prevent future challenges from Tehran to this role.
Riadh broke its diplomatic relations with Tehran in 2016 when an ultra-hardliner mob attacked and vandalized the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad with Iranian security forces allegedly giving them free reign to burn diplomatic property and documents.
The attack came after Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shia cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, and the Revolutionary Guards’ promise of “harsh revenge” against the Saudis.
The two countries came nearly to the brink of a war in 2019 following the Houthis attack on Saudi oil facilities.
In 2021, Iraq initiated a mediatory effort to reconcile Tehran and Riadh which led to an agreement in March 2023 to resume their diplomatic relations. The agreement was surprisingly signed not in Baghdad but in Beijing which has deepened its relations, not only with the Islamic Republic, but also with Saudi Arabia in the past few years.
Kristi Noem is taking the helm of homeland security, John Ratcliffe as the CIA director and Pete Hegseth will be defense secretary.
Noem has been vocally supportive of Israel and branded Iran an “enemy of America”, slamming the first ever direct attack on Israel from Iran in April which saw Tehran send 350 drones and missiles to the Jewish state.
Following the attack, she posted on Instagram: “We stand with the people of Israel against this unprecedented attack. Iran is also an enemy to America. And I expect decisive action from our country on behalf of Israel.”
She was vehemently against President Barak Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, the JCPOA, and called it “poorly negotiated”.
"The Obama-era Iran deal was poorly negotiated, failed to permanently stop Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities, and undermined American security and that of our ally Israel," she said in a statement in May 2018 after Trump canned the deal.
"We should have walked away from this agreement at the very beginning, and I'm proud that President Trump has been bold enough to do so."
She had joined others in the House in voting down Obama's nuclear deal in September 2015, but the legislation was never signed into law.
With alleged attacks being plotted by Iran on US soil, Noem will be a fierce opponent as she will be closely tied to border protection, immigration and working alongside the US Secret Service.
As head of the Central Intelligence Agency, Trump loyalist John Ratcliffe will be another fierce opponent for Tehran.
As Director of National Intelligence, just weeks before the 2020 presidential election, he was among multiple officials accusing Iran of meddling in the elections. He said the Islamic Republic was responsible for a barrage of emails sent to intimidate voters.
He has accused the Biden administration of being too soft on Iran, and in the midst of Iran’s proxy war against Israel, slammed the administration for threatening to withhold weapons to the Jewish state as endangering a key regional ally.
He has been a vocal opponent of suggestions to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from the terror list in the US and has been supportive of Israel’s recent operations in Iran.
He told Fox News that "what Israel has done is essentially employ 'the Trump doctrine': a maximum-pressure campaign, understanding the only way to deter terrorists like Iran and their proxies is to put your foot on their throat. Israel has done that, we should be assisting Israel in doing so.”
Trump’s pick for defense secretary will be no less challenging for Tehran. Military veteran Pete Hegseth will no doubt reverse many of the “woke” policies he criticized the Biden administration for.
The Fox News host called for military action against Iran as early as 2020. Speaking on Fox News, he said: "They are not as capable as they want the world to believe they are. They want something to sell for internal propaganda. I totally get that. None of this though changes the calculation of this regime, which is an evil regime.”
Warning about Iran's nuclear threat, he said, "I happen to believe that we can't kick the can down the road any longer in trying to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb,” calling for targeted strikes.
“What better time than now to say, we're starting the clock, you've got a week, you've got X amount of time before we start taking out your energy production facilities. We take out key infrastructure. We take out your missile sites. We take out nuclear developments," he said at the time.
Making it clear he did not want a repeat of Iraq or Afghanistan, he said he is not calling for boots on the ground or endless war, but said “Iran has been in endless war with us for 40 years. Either we put up and shut up now and stop it”.
The new appointments come on the back of other pro-Israel, anti-Iran aides.
Trump has also announced Representative Elise Stefanik of New York is to become United Nations ambassador, Representative Mike Waltz of Florida will take over as national security advisor, and it is expected that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida will become secretary of State.
All have been supportive of a "maximum pressure" approach to Iran while backing Israel in its fight against the two allies' mutual enemy.
The criticisms come amid mounting crises: the country faces intermittent blackouts due to fuel shortages; protests by teachers, pensioners, and others fill major city streets daily; the parliament has admitted the Social Security Organization is bankrupt; the stock exchange experiences near-weekly crashes; the currency is at a historic low; and a winter fuel shortage looms as Turkmenistan has halted natural gas sales to Iran, citing unpaid bills.
One analyst remarked, "Pezeshkian promised improvement, but so far, things have only deteriorated." Seasoned politician Ali Larijani echoed this sentiment, noting that beyond issues like electricity, gasoline, natural gas, water, medicine, and bus shortages—as well as employment and education challenges—the budget deficit is as severe as it was during the critical days of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war.
Iranian journalists report that the government is framing its inability to supply electricity to households and industries as an "achievement" in environmental protection. Officials claim that blackouts are due to the shutdown of certain power plants to prevent the use of highly polluting fuels. Another journalist cautioned the government that propaganda on state media cannot resolve the country's problems and shortages.
Some conservative critics suggest that, given Pezeshkian and his government’s lack of progress over the past 100 days, any assessment of their capabilities should be postponed for another six months. Conservative MP Mohammad Saleh Jokar highlighted Pezeshkian's failure to address economic issues and lift Internet restrictions, stating, "What we have seen so far is nothing but slogans."
Jokar alleged that Pezeshkian has spent most of the past 100 days on appointments. He warned the government that the people are closely monitoring their performance.
Several conservative MPs criticized Pezeshkian's budget bill, saying it falls short of public expectations for improved living conditions. They also pointed out a lack of alignment between the budget’s resources and the government’s expenditures.
MP Mohammad Saleh Jokar remarked that, while the government claims to be in an "economic war," its current bureaucratic structure hinders any real progress.
Criticism of Pezeshkian's performance extends beyond conservative circles. Reformist commentator and political activist Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote in Ham Mihan daily, "Reviewing his first 100 days, one cannot call his performance brilliant, but he wasn’t a total failure either." Zeidabadi suggested that "more than anything, Pezeshkian needs balance."
Speaking about the much-criticized appointments in the government, Zeidabadi criticized the inclusion of hardliners as top officials in a government that supposed to bring change.
Pezeshkian has called his policy of appointments “national reconciliation,” but in effect it is nothing more than political horse trading between factions.
Referring to international tensions and crises over the past 100 days, Zeidabadi noted that “Pezeshkian has faced unprecedented bad luck,” possibly alluding to heightened confrontations with Israel and the severe setbacks experienced by Tehran's proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Centrist politician Mohsen Hashemi offered a sharp critique of Pezeshkian, stating, "The country’s situation remains largely unchanged. There’s no noticeable shift in the government’s decisions or performance."
Hashemi also criticized Pezeshkian’s approach to national reconciliation, arguing, "National reconciliation isn’t about distributing government positions; it should mean seeking acceptable shared solutions to address the country’s crises, especially the pressing issue of livelihoods."
He added that not only has Pezeshkian failed to uphold his promise to lift internet restrictions, but his government also lacks a clear plan or timeline for this initiative. Furthermore, Hashemi accused Pezeshkian of maintaining the previous administration’s entire security sector, despite pledges for change.