Before Iran launched a massive missile attack against Israel, the Quds Force—the arm of the Iranian military responsible for conducting proxy warfare—reasserted its primary mission: the elimination of Israel.
Yadollah Javani, a high-ranking military figure and political deputy of the IRGC, explicitly announced this mission for the first time during a political meeting with IRGC personnel in Iran's northwestern Qazvin province, as reported by Javan Online, a publication closely aligned with the IRGC.
Tehran launched over 100 ballistic missiles against Israel on Tuesday night, stating the attack was in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and senior IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan, both of whom were killed in recent Israeli strikes.
Javani’s comments, made just before Iran’s missile strikes, reflect a shift. Traditionally, the Quds Force has relied on indirect tactics against Israel, utilizing asymmetrical warfare and proxy forces. Now, Iran appears to be moving toward more direct confrontation, signaling a bold escalation in its approach.
The IRGC official emphasized the importance of this policy, asserting that the elimination of Israel is a longstanding commitment of Iran's Islamic government – with the Quds Force having been created by the Supreme Leader in pursuit of that goal.
"The policy of the Islamic Republic is the eradication of the existence of the Zionist regime. The Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consider this a commitment. The Leader, in continuation of Imam Khomeini (may his soul rest in peace), has followed this policy, creating a force called the Quds Force, whose mission is clear,” Javani said.
“The Islamic Revolution and the new Islamic civilization have the elimination of Israel on their agenda," Javani added.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had previously vowed that Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah "will not go unavenged," was reportedly moved to a secret location in late September, according to Reuters. Tehran had previously refrained from retaliating for the widely perceived humiliating assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran guesthouse in July.
According to officials who spoke with The New York Times, conservatives in the Islamic Republic’s establishment were pushing for direct retaliation, while the so-called moderates reportedly preferred to avoid an all-out war.
On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had condemned the killing of IRGC deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut by Israel, calling it a "horrible crime" that would not go unanswered.
This week, the reformist news site Etemad Online featured an interview with an Iranian foreign policy analyst, Reza Nasri, who argued primarily against direct military confrontation with Israel, stating that such actions have historically strengthened Israel through US and international support. Instead, Nasri advocated for a "death by a thousand cuts" strategy: a prolonged effort to weaken Israel through economic, political, and demographic pressures. Nasri had further suggested focusing on creating internal instability in Israel, halting immigration, and damaging Israel's global reputation.
After the killing of Nasrallah, Nasri posted a tweet on his X page comparing the Hezbollah leader—widely known for his involvement in violent militant activities—to Nelson Mandela, a global icon of non-violence and reconciliation.
Iranian officials, including political and military figure Hossein Kanani Moghadam, who is affiliated with the IRGC, had emphasized that any decision to escalate or engage in open conflict is ultimately made by the Supreme Leader.
Speaking to centrist media Fararu, Moghadam had pointed out that Hezbollah has entered an "open-ended war" scenario, where there are no red lines for future operations against Israel, indicating that all forms of retaliation were on the table.
All options carry grave consequences for the balance of power in the region and Israel's standing in an increasingly intense conflict flaring on multiple fronts.
Israel could heed US and international pleas for calm by downplaying the attack - just as it did when Iran launched its last missile volley in April - and hold off on a major response.
It might decide to target Iran’s political and military leadership, killing key figures as it has with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In an even more extreme scenario, the Jewish state could take aim at Iran’s nuclear facilities, vital military sites, and economic infrastructure such as oil fields and refineries.
Still more devastating would be a combination of the last two options: an all-out strategy in which assassinations are paired with widespread destruction of military and economic infrastructure.
No perfect option
The first option is highly unlikely.
With the stakes so high, ignoring the attack may be seen from Israel as emboldening Iran and sending a message of weakness to its regional allies just as Israel appears to be gaining a military advantage, particularly in Lebanon.
The assassination route, while projecting unabashed strength, would not have a game-changing impact on the ground: Iran would quickly fill any personnel gaps with even more hardline cadres with redoubled hatred towards Israel.
The most extreme options also carry the most risks. Targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and infrastructure would almost certainly escalate into a full-scale war and drag the United States into the conflict - something both presidential hopefuls are on record as seeking to avoid.
The Hezbollah Factor
Iran has always been hopeful that if it faced a confrontation with Israel or the US, Hezbollah’s presence in Israel’s neighborhood would make them think twice.
But Iran’s deterrent force in Lebanon has now been significantly weakened by Israeli bombings and airstrikes. Israel systematically targeted and decimated Hezbollah’s leadership within two weeks, and its missile arsenal could be degraded next.
A hobbled Hezbollah would mean the end of Iran’s most effective deterrent force in the region. But might that lead Iran to pivot toward building a new deterrent? And what might this deterrent be other than a nuclear weapon?
This would be an enormous strategic setback for Israel and accelerate the very nightmare scenario it seeks to prevent.
One shot
For Israel, this moment presents a rare opportunity to deal a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, one that it would be reluctant to pass up.
But the bigger question remains: Will President Joe Biden support Israel’s more aggressive actions, even if it means risking a new war in the Middle East?
The answer is far from simple. If the Biden administration doesn’t back Israel, the Democratic Party could appear feckless and weak, which may not help at polls. But if it chooses to support a military strike that cripples Iran, it could alienate the left wing of his party, potentially losing some progressive votes.
Such a move might also appeal to moderate Republicans who oppose Donald Trump, creating an unexpected coalition of support. Standing with Israel could also help guarantee the backing of the influential pro-Israel lobby in Washington.
Can Israel Truly Stop Iran's Nuclear Program?
Some experts believe that Iran’s nuclear program is too deeply entrenched underground for Israeli airstrikes to eliminate it entirely. While it’s true that Israel may not be able to completely destroy the program, a well-executed attack might delay it by a few years.
Furthermore, if Israel opts for a combined assault - targeting both Iran’s nuclear facilities and its leadership - it could wound the Islamic Republic to the point where it may no longer be able to rebuild its nuclear program. In this scenario, the collapse of the whole ruling system could become a real possibility.
Israel's response to Iran’s missile attacks will not only determine the future of the Middle East but also have profound implications for the US's role in the world.
The Biden administration will weigh its options carefully. A misstep could ignite a regional conflict with global consequences, but doing nothing might risk emboldening Iran and rattling the security of the region even more.
Iran’s Fragile State
For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the current situation is precarious. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is 85 - and in declining health.
The theocratic 'system' narrowly survived a major uprising just two years ago, and the country's economic conditions have worsened significantly.
Millions of Iranians are grappling with severe economic hardship, while tens of thousands of government workers have protested in the streets over delayed salaries and unpaid wages.
Unemployment remains high, and less than three months ago, Iran held a presidential election that saw a record-low voter turnout, ushering in a president with an unprecedentedly weak mandate.
In this fragile state, and after suffering significant blows from Israel - including the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on the day of the new president’s inauguration - Iran finds itself much weakened.
The question now is: can the Ayatollahs contain the growing discontent within the country if it is drawn into a war?
Asked by reporters if the Jewish state should hit at the disputed nuclear program after Iran's greatest-ever attack on its soil, Biden said, "no".
An international consensus among world powers in the G7 group was that retaliation was warranted but should be limited, he added.
“All seven of us agree that they have a right to respond, but they have to respond proportionally."
Iran launched around 180 missiles at Israel on Wednesday, the Israeli military said. The attack was largely repulsed with US and Western help but several missiles hit their mark, including an Israeli air base.
Israel's ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon told an emergency Security Council meeting on Wednesday that an Israeli riposte was inevitable.
"Let me be clear, Israel will defend itself. We will act," he said. "And let me assure you, the consequences Iran will face for their actions will be far greater than they could ever have imagined."
Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps said the attack was in response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, warning Israel that it will strike again if there was an Israeli response.
Israel was aided in fending off a previous one-off missile fusillade from Iran in April by the United States, Western and Arab partners, after which Washington urged Israel to hold off on a counterattack.
But the US government is not trying to dissuade Israel from hitting back this time, CNN said citing two senior US officials.
"No one’s saying don’t respond. No one’s saying ‘take the win'," one source said, referring to Washington's argument to Israel in April.
War or Peace
Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian accused Israel of forcing his country to react, saying that Tehran “is not looking for war but looking forward to peace”.
"We were asked to maintain calm. For the sake of peace, we have maintained self-restraint,” he said at a joint press conference with the Emir of Qatar in Doha. “If [Israel] acts, we will react more fiercely and harshly."
Israel declared Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata for what it said was insufficient rejection of Iran's attack.
Speaking at the Security Council later in the day, Guterres condemned the Iranian barrage on Israel the previous day, adding that the “deadly cycle of tit-for-tat violence must stop.”
“Time is running out,” he warned.
Meanwhile Israel announced the deaths in combat of eight Israeli soldiers in Lebanon, days after it launched an invasion of the country it said aimed at stopping rocket fire on its border communities by Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters.
Israel has landed devastating blows against Hezbollah, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an aerial bombardment on Beirut on Friday along with much of its top leadership.
The attacks have killed up to a 1,000 people including many civilians while displacing nearly a million people.
A top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an explosion Tehran in July in an assassination widely blamed on Israel, raising Iran's ire but not immediately drawing any response at that time.
Instead, he focused on Israel's simmering conflict with Lebanon and the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, assassinated by Israel last month, stating, “I certainly have remarks regarding Lebanon and everything related to this great and beloved martyr (Nasrallah), which I will share in the near future, God willing.”
In an open and seemingly unprovoked attack on Western democracies, Khamenei accused the US and European nations of being "the root of the problem in our region—which creates conflicts, wars, concerns, and hostilities".
He said: "If they reduce their interference in this region, undoubtedly these conflicts, wars, and confrontations will completely vanish. The countries in the region can manage themselves, govern their own areas, and live together in peace, safety, and well-being.”
Unusually, he did not mention Iran's archenemy Israel in the blast.
Khamenei’s comments come at a significant moment, as there are reports that he will lead Friday prayers in Tehran this week for the first time in nearly five years. An announcement from a manager at Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Fars website confirmed that Khamenei will personally deliver the sermon, a responsibility he typically delegates to representatives such as Ahmad Khatami and Kazem Sedighi. It is significant as historically, Khamenei only steps in during critical times or significant occasions.
The last time Khamenei led Friday prayers, considered the most holy day of the week for Muslims, was on January 17, 2020, the first time in eight years. His sermon occurred during a particularly tense period, just after the killing of Iranian IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike and the subsequent downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane by Iran's military.
If confirmed, the timing of Khamenei’s appearance is noteworthy due to Iran’s second attack on Israel on Tuesday and recent killing of Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli airstrike which has seen Iran's biggest proxy hit most drastically by Israel since its creation. Around 1,500 operatives are believed to have been taken out of action after a mass infiltration of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to the group. Its top commanders have also been eliminated in a wave of assassinations.
Now, according to reports from Reuters, Khamenei has been moved to a secure location within Iran amid heightened security following Nasrallah’s shock assassination.
On Tuesday night, after the launch of nearly 200 missiles at Israel and the Israeli prime minister's promise of strong retaliation, reports indicated that he remained in a secure location. However, he appeared for a public meeting on Wednesday.
Iran launched over 180 missiles toward Israel on Tuesday, claiming it was a response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and others, including Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, killed in an air strike in Tehran in July.
Khamenei also led the funeral prayers for the slain Hamas figure, in addition to leading prayers for former president Ebrahim Raisi who died in a mysterious helicopter crash earlier this year.
Across multiple locations in Israel, barrages of missiles streaked through the sky as sirens wailed throughout the country. At least one person was killed in the West Bank, with several others injured during the attack, according to the Israeli military.
Hours after the assault, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned: “Iran made a big mistake tonight - and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies.”
The US also vowed that it would work with longtime ally Israel to ensure Iran faced "severe consequences" for Tuesday's attack.