Iran signals softer tone on nuclear talks, but doubts persist

Iran has struggled with a growing gasoline deficit since 2022, importing at least 1.5 billion liters (396 million gallons) of gasoline during the last fiscal year, which ended on March 20, according to an official Oil Ministry document obtained by Iran International.

Officials report that the gasoline deficit has worsened this year. Additionally, Iran is grappling with the daily smuggling of 5 million liters (1.32 m gallons) of gasoline to neighboring countries, because of the cheap subsidized price.

The Iranian government has not disclosed specific details about the volume and value of gasoline imports. However, President Masoud Pezeshkian estimated the annual import cost at $8 billion annually during an interview last month. Currently, the Free on Board (FOB) price of gasoline in the Persian Gulf exceeds 55 cents per liter, while Iran sells rationed gasoline (60 liters per month per vehicle) at just 15,000 rials (2.5 cents) per liter, and non-rationed gasoline at 5 cents a liter.

Pezeshkian's remarks suggest that a significant increase in gasoline prices may be necessary—a sensitive issue that previously triggered widespread protests and a brutal crackdown by the Islamic Republic in November 2019.

His comments also come against the backdrop of a sharp rise in the US dollar exchange rate, from 110,000 rials to 600,000 rials per dollar since November 2019, further highlighting the disparity between domestic and global gasoline prices. Additionally, the devaluation of the rial is a consequence of the Islamic Republic's economic policies, including systemic inefficiencies, a lack of investment in new refineries, outdated infrastructure, and the impact of Western sanctions. Blaming the public for the gasoline crisis under these circumstances is therefore unreasonable.

Last year, Iran's base gasoline production was approximately 97.13 million liters per day (ml/d). After blending with a significant amount of non-standard additives, this volume increased to 111 ml/d, while daily consumption stood at 115 ml/d. However, recent statements from oil officials suggest that gasoline consumption in recent weeks has been closer to 121 ml/d, with a spike in August due to a large pilgrimage to Iraq.

Pezeshkian’s call for higher gasoline prices comes despite the Oil Minister’s announcement on August 22 that no pricing changes are currently being considered to address the gasoline imbalance. Pezeshkian further stressed that Iranian economists should protest against the flawed policies being implemented, as the low price of gasoline contradicts economic principles.

One key factor deepening Iran's gasoline deficit is the lack of new refineries being added to Iran's production capacity since 2019. Additionally, around one million high-fuel-consumption domestic vehicles have been introduced annually into the market in recent years.

Pezeshkian, without acknowledging the absence of new refineries and the inefficiencies of existing ones—where one-quarter of crude oil is still converted into low-value products like bitumen and mazut (six times more than modern refineries)—criticized the low gasoline prices. He lamented, "I don’t have money for wheat, I don’t have money for livestock inputs, I don’t have financial resources to pay retirees, yet we buy gasoline at a high price and sell it cheaply."

According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran had $52 billion in hidden fossil fuel product subsidies in 2022, including natural gas and oil products such as gasoline. One-fourth of this figure represents the difference between Iran’s consumer gasoline price and global prices. In 2022, Iran ranked second worldwide, after Russia, with $127 billion in fossil fuel subsidies. The IEA has not yet published updated figures.

The post on X displayed the flag of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia group listed as terrorist by the United States, was accompanied by the statement, "Hezbollah will be victorious."

His act has sparked outrage across Austria, as the display of Hezbollah symbols is explicitly banned in the country.

The timing of Ardekani’s post could not have been more incendiary, coming shortly after Hezbollah's intensified rocket and drone attacks on Israel. Hezbollah, recognized as a terrorist organization by numerous countries, including Austria since May 2021, is notorious for its stance against Israel. The ambassador’s actions are seen as a direct violation of Austrian law.

Austrian politicians were swift in their response. Leaders from the Greens and the SPÖ expressed their fury and demanded immediate action from the foreign ministry. Green Party leader Sigrid Maurer called for the ambassador's recall, urging the ministry to "send a clear signal against terror." SPÖ deputy leader Eva-Maria Holzleitner echoed the sentiments, condemning the ambassador's disregard for Austrian law and the safety of Israel.

The Iranian embassy remained silent as the post stayed online for an extended period, further fueling the outcry. The Austrian ministry of foreign affairs eventually confirmed on August 27 that the ambassador had been summoned and was reminded of his obligation to adhere to the laws of the host country as stipulated by the Vienna Convention.

Complicating the situation is the potential clash between Austrian law and the ambassador’s diplomatic immunity, which could shield him from prosecution. Under Austrian law, Ardekani could face a fine of up to 10,000 euros or a one-month prison sentence for his post. Yet, diplomatic immunity might prevent such penalties, leaving Austria with limited recourse.

This incident is not an isolated case but rather part of a disturbing pattern of behavior by Iranian diplomats. Earlier, Ahmad Sadeghi, the Iranian ambassador to Australia, sparked outrage with an anti-Semitic post predicting the "destruction of Israel by 2027."

"It's extremely dangerous and disturbing to hear that sort of rhetoric, especially at a time when the Jewish community feels so vulnerable and threatened," Alex Ryvchin of the Executive Council of Australian Jewry told Iran International on Monday.

Ryvchin highlighted the Iranian government's long-standing strategy of dehumanizing Jews and inciting violence against them worldwide by labeling Jews and the state of Israel as a "cancer to be eradicated." He expressed grave concern over the Australian Government's "inadequate" response to this dangerous rhetoric, noting that Iran’s ambassador, despite his inflammatory statements, continues to operate freely in Canberra.

The ads published in Arabic included messages such as "Do not take up arms against the US or its partners" and "The US will protect its partners against threats from the Iranian regime and its proxies."

The advertisements which appeared on Tinder for users in Lebanon were posted along with images of warplanes and the logo of CENTCOM. "CENTCOM is fully prepared with F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters and A-10 Thunderbolt fighters already in the region."

It is not clear why the US military has chosen a dating app for its message to Iran. Hezbollah fighters are said to be banned from using cellphones as their location might be tracked. The Lebanese civilians seem to be the main audience of the message, even though they cannot do much to stop an Iran-led strike.

The warning comes amid concerns that the Iranian-Israeli tensions would lead to an all-out regional war. Iran has so far refrained from its promised retaliatory attack against Israel, while repeating the claim that it has not abandoned the plan to take revenge for the Israeli killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh.

On Monday, Iran's top general stressed that “taking revenge for this criminal act, whether by the axis of resistance, or by the Islamic Republic of Iran, is certain."

“Members of the axis of resistance, each based on their capabilities and considerations, will carry out their revenge, some of which we witnessed yesterday,” Major General Mohammad Bagheri added, referring to the attacks on Israel by Hezbollah during the weekend.

Bagheri’s remarks can be read as a sign that Iran could opt out of an attack against Israel from its soil and limit its response to ‘proxy’ operations by Hezbollah and other armed groups in the region. Still, the US is continuing to boost its military presence in the region in anticipation of a major escalation.

"It's very difficult to know what the Iranians are thinking on any given day. They may remain prepared and postured should they want to conduct some sort of large-scale attack on Israel," White House national security spokesman John Kirby told Fox News on Tuesday. "That's why we remain prepared and postured to defend against that attack and to defend our own troops and facilities in the region."

Kirby said the US has got "a couple of (aircraft) carriers there right now and there are other assets, both air and ground based, available to the US. We're prepared and postured should we need to do that. We obviously don't want to see that outcome."

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has directed two aircraft carrier strike groups to remain in the Middle East, bolstering the US military presence amid Iran-Israel tensions, the Pentagon announced on Sunday.

Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, Director of IHR, condemned the act, stating, “Public hanging is an inhumane, cruel, and degrading act that not only victimizes the defendant but also the general public.”

Amiry-Moghaddam called on the international community to “condemn this barbaric punishment in the strongest terms,” warning that “we will witness more public executions if the international community fails to respond appropriately.”

Akrami had been on death row for about a year after being convicted of murder. Mohammad Sadegh Akbari, head of the judiciary in Semnan province, confirmed that Akrami was sentenced to execution by Branch 49 of the Supreme Court, for the “intentional murder” of Mahmoudreza Jafar Aghayi using a hunting weapon, as reported by Iran’s state-affiliated ISNA news agency.

While this is the first public execution in Iran this year, the Islamic Republic has already executed at least 345 people as of August 9, according to reports from rights groups.

In 2023, Iran executed 853 people, the highest number in eight years, according to Amnesty International. This marked a 48% increase from 2022 and a 172% rise from 2021. Last year, Iran carried out seven public executions, according to IHR.

Between July 22 and August 21 alone, at least 106 individuals were executed in Iranian prisons, a reminder of the brutal measures the Islamic government has used for four decades despite international criticism, reported the US-based HRANA news agency on Thursday.

The executions have not been limited to those convicted of violent crimes. Many of those hanged were political prisoners, protesters, and individuals from ethnic and religious minority groups, often sentenced in sham trials that lack transparency and due process, the report said.

This wave of executions is part of a broader strategy by the Iranian government to instill fear and suppress any form of resistance. Since the nationwide protests in 2022, triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in morality-police custody, Iran has weaponized the death penalty as a means of crushing dissent and tightening its authoritarian grip on the nation.

The staff at the refineries of the South Pars Gas Complex (SPGC) organized a protest gathering on Tuesday, driven by economic grievances and the incomplete payment of wages, as they sought to address and pursue their demands.

On Monday, permanent employees of the Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC), a National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) subsidiary, staged a protest march in Asaluyeh, Bushehr Province, calling attention to the growing turmoil in Iran's key industries. Simultaneously, workers at the Kangan Cement Factory, also in southern Iran, continued their strike, now in its 28th day, demanding accountability from the authorities.

The striking workers at Kangan Cement have outlined several demands, including the permanent employment of contract workers, the implementation of a comprehensive job classification plan, and increased vacation days. Despite their prolonged efforts, these demands have yet to be addressed, leading to continued protest actions.

Additionally, the Council for Organizing Oil Contract Workers' Protests has been actively sharing images and reports of various protest actions within the oil and gas sector on social media, indicating a coordinated effort among labor groups. The council noted that similar actions were undertaken by Parsian Oil and Gas Holding and Fajr Jam Gas Refinery in southern Iran.

The group has outlined a series of critical demands, including the “dismissal of incompetent and corrupt officials, the removal of wage ceilings, the elimination of retirement pension restrictions, and a comprehensive revision of the Retirement Fund's regulations.”

The requests illustrated the profound and systemic issues within the oil and gas sectors, which are pivotal to Iran’s economy.

Earlier, workers overseeing drilling operations in the southern oilfields also held protests.

Workers in Iran have consistently protested against deteriorating economic conditions and inadequate wage policies, as well as late payments of salaries. However, despite the frequency of these protests in recent years, their demands have largely been ignored.

A report by the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) in April revealed that between April 2023 and April 2024, there were 428 reported labor protests.

Amidst these challenges, Iran's summer power crisis—which reduced electricity supply to industries by half and caused widespread blackouts—has now given rise to urgent warnings of an impending severe gas shortage this winter.

The strikes are not confined to southern Iran; a wave of protests has swept across the country, with Iranian nurses taking to the streets to demand better working conditions, fair pay, and respect for their profession.

These demonstrations, which began on August 5, have escalated into widespread strikes. The nurses’ demands are clear and urgent: an immediate wage increase, the elimination of mandatory overtime, proper and timely implementation of nursing tariffs, payment of overdue wages, improvement of harsh working conditions, and an end to security crackdowns on protesting nurses. These demands extend beyond financial compensation; they seek recognition of the critical role that nurses play in Iran’s healthcare system.

However, the Iranian government faces a significant budget deficit, estimated to exceed 50%, making it challenging to meet the nurses' demands. Similar grievances exist in other sectors, where most workers are struggling to survive on approximately $200 per month.