Nigerian police blame Iran-backed Shia group for deadly attack

The sound of explosions rang out in central Kyiv on Monday morning during rush hour as Ukraine's military warned of a massive Russian missile attack following waves of drone attacks in the early hours. According to reports by Ukraine’s air force, Russia had 11 TU-95 strategic bombers in the air to launch cruise missiles.

At least three people were killed, and several were wounded with reports of damage to energy infrastructure.

The Russian military launched missiles from the Caspian Sea, with aircraft taking off from several airfields. Additionally, missiles were launched from Black Sea carriers, and a massive raid by Russian attack drones was reported in various regions in Kyiv and other cities.

More than a half of Ukraine's regions were struck Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

"Today, 15 regions were affected by a massive Russian attack. The enemy used various types of weapons: drones, cruise missiles, and Kinzhals (supersonic missiles). There are wounded and dead," Shmyhal said on the Telegram messaging app.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia attacked Ukraine with over 100 missiles, and about 100 drones, confirming that the country’s energy sector saw a lot of damage.

Russia primarily employs Iranian drones, particularly Shahed models, as suicide drones in its conflict against Ukraine. The exact number of Shahed drones used in the Monday attack is not released yet. Iran's support for Russia's military actions has drawn significant international scrutiny.

Since mid-2022, Iran has reportedly supplied Russia with over a thousand kamikaze Shahed UAVs, which have been extensively used to target civilian infrastructure and cities across Ukraine.

In March, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps accused Iran of supplying Russia with ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine, claiming the regime is a "bad influence" not only on the Middle East but also in Europe.

Approximately 15 missiles and 15 drones targeting the capital of Kyiv were downed, Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv's military administration, wrote on Telegram Monday.

Additionally, the Ukrainian president's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, called on Kyiv's allies to allow long-range attacks on Russia with Western-supplied weapons. "Such a decision will accelerate the end of Russian terror," Yermaksaid on Telegram messenger.

The Operational Command of the Polish armed forces said on X that Polish and allied aircraft had been activated after Russia launched the attack which also targeted regions in Ukraine's west near the Polish border.

Ukrainians have been expecting a major Russian missile attack for some time. The US embassy issued a warning last week of an elevated risk of attack around Ukrainian Independence Day, which Ukraine marked on Saturday.

Ukraine has itself stepped up its long-range drone attacks on Russia striking military and industrial targets. Ukraine had no powerful long-range weapons at the start of the war, but has since developed many models of long-range attack drone and used them to hit targets deep inside Russia, ranging from oil refineries, weapons depots, to military airfields.

Over the weekend, Zelenskiy said Ukraine had developed a new "drone missile" that had been used to attack Russia and was more powerful and faster than other hardware in Kyiv's arsenal.

Rather than addressing the serious vulnerabilities exposed in the National Real Estate and Housing System, the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development has opted to file a complaint against the journalist who revealed them. The name of the journalist has not been disclosed to media.

The response underscores the Islamic government’s tendency to punish truth-tellers instead of confronting its own shortcomings.

The incident began when Eghtesad Online, an Iranian news outlet, conducted an investigation into the government's much-touted National Real Estate and Housing System—a platform supposedly designed to bring transparency and accountability to property ownership in Iran.

What they uncovered was not just a glitch, but a security failure: anyone with basic information like a postal code and a national ID could register any property, even that of the Ministry itself, as their own.

To prove the point, the journalist listed the ministry’s headquarters for sale on a popular online marketplace called Divar, turning the issue into a matter of public ridicule and laughter.

Instead of responding with the urgency such a security breach demands, the Iranian government has resorted to its usual playbook of using pressure tactics. The Ministry of Roads and Urban Development’s decision to press charges against the journalist, rather than fix the broken system, is a sign of the system's priorities. This response, according to critics, sends a message to the media and to all Iranians: exposing the truth will not be tolerated, especially when it reveals the government's incompetence.

Over the past few years, the country has suffered a series of cyberattacks that have laid bare the government's inability to safeguard its most sensitive systems. Hacktivists have breached the judiciary's servers, infiltrated the notorious Evin Prison’s surveillance network, and even accessed servers belonging to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB).

Since the 2022 uprising, which shook the foundations of the Islamic Republic, there has been an increase in such activities.

The targeting of a journalist for exposing a security flaw is just the latest example of how the Iranian government prefers to shoot the messenger rather than confront the uncomfortable truths that are increasingly coming to light.

One significant outcome may be the marginalization of the ultraconservative Paydari Party, whose members had hoped to block at least four of Pezeshkian's ministerial nominees.

The "political purification" process, which began under former President Ebrahim Raisi, was intended to consolidate power within Paydari and other like-minded hardliners, aiming to transform the semi-democratic Islamic Republic into a more fundamentalist, fanatical, and totalitarian state. However, it appears that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has opted for a different strategy, steering the government through a carefully engineered political process that began with Pezeshkian's election in a lackluster contest.

Khamenei's 35-year track record as the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader suggests that he won't completely eliminate Paydari from Iran's volatile political scene. Instead, as he has done with reformists and various ultraconservative and conservative groups, Khamenei is likely to marginalize Paydari and keep it in reserve for a time when he might need the party again. This mirrors his approach with Iran's reformists, whom he sidelined for more than two decades before partially reviving them ahead of the presidential election.

Iranian journalist Sima Parvanehgohar has pointed out that Pezeshkian is the second Iranian Pesident who has had all of his cabinet ministers approved by the parliament. However, she also pointed out that former President Mohammad Khatami’s and Pezeshkian's first cabinets have nothing else in common other than getting their vote of confidence from predominantly conservative parliaments.

Like most other Iranian analysts, she also said that the vote of confidence for all of Pezeshkian's minister by a hardline conservative parliament made it clear that Iran watchers had over-estimated the Paydari Party's power as well as the capability of Pezeshkian's main political rival Saeed Jalili to form a strong opposition at the parliament.

Similarly, the voting outcome highlighted Majles Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's ability to organize and mobilize his supporters, as well as other conservatives in the Majles, to throw their weight behind Pezeshkian.

As political analyst Mostafa Najafi pointed out: "Ghalibaf is one of the few Iranian politicians who understands the rules of the political game in Iran and has the ability to adapt his approach to broader changes. This is how he transformed his major defeat in the presidential election into a significant political victory in the Majles on Wednesday—a victory likely to erase the memory of his previous setback."

Over the past week, Ghalibaf stood firm against Paydari members like Amir Hossein Sabeti, Hamid Rasai, and Malek Shariati, who tried their best to disrupt the discussions and block Pezeshkian's success. According to Parvanehgohar, the lawmakers' votes demonstrated that the Majles overwhelmingly rejected the ideology that Paydari and Jalili have been pushing forward.

Yet another implication of the votes for Pezeshkian's ministers was introducing transparency at the Majles. Pezeshkian revealed how Khamenei intervened in the process of nomination and accreditation of the cabinet ministers. Although the President has been widely criticized for his transparency, and some hardliners called on him to correct his behavior, the President's move could be a welcome first step to share information with the public.

In a Friday interview, Araghchi stated that rather than merely reviving the deal, "the agreement needs to be reopened" to allow for essential amendments. However, he clarified on Saturday that this does not imply the deal's "death."

However, Iranian experts permitted to speak in Tehran's media offer differing solutions. One expert advocates for comprehensive negotiations between Iran and the United States to resolve all outstanding issues, while another suggests that the West should accept the reality of Iran's uranium enrichment and focus on securing an agreement that prevents the development of nuclear weapons.

In 2015, Iran and major world powers (P5+1) signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aiming to curb Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief, with Araghchi playing a key role in the negotiations. In 2018, President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the accord, citing its shortcomings, including its failure to address Iran's missile program.

Efforts to revive the deal in 2021 and 2022 under the Biden administration, which opposed Trump's withdrawal, were unsuccessful. Western countries accused Tehran of rejecting proposals mediated by the European Union.

Araghchi pointed to two significant shifts in the international political landscape—the wars in Ukraine and Gaza—as key factors that have rendered the revival of the JCPOA impossible. He remarked, "The current picture differs from what it was before.”

Since mid-2022, Tehran has provided Russia with weapons, including Shahed drones used in the Ukraine conflict, prompting sanctions from the US, UK, and EU for violating UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

Following Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, Iran intensified its activities against American and Israeli interests by deploying armed groups it supports across the Middle East. Consequently, in May, the EU broadened its sanctions to include drones, missiles, and Iran's backing of armed groups in the Middle East and the Red Sea region, where Iran-backed Houthi forces have disrupted global shipping since November.

However, a former Iranian diplomat contends that Araghchi's reasons for not reviving the JCPOA are less significant than two other critical factors that complicate any attempt to restore the deal.

“First, Iran's substantial advancements in enrichment technology and related equipment over the past five years may make it challenging, if not undesirable, for Iranian officials to revert to the JCPOA's restrictions. Second, the US may struggle to re-establish the so-called one-year nuclear breakout time, potentially leading to a reluctance to reengage with the JCPOA,” Kourosh Ahmadi, a former Iranian diplomat in United Nations, told Entekhab, a Tehran-based relatively independent outlet.

In July, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked that Iran's nuclear breakout time—the period required to produce sufficient amount of 90% enriched uranium for a bomb—has likely been reduced to "one or two weeks."

Earlier this year, Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, warned that Iran could be capable of producing a nuclear weapon within weeks rather than months. Meanwhile, under the terms of the JCPOA, uranium enrichment was strictly limited to a cap of 3.67 percent.

In the interview, Ahmadi reiterated his longstanding belief that a broader, more holistic approach would best serve Iran's interests. However, in this latest discussion, he conceded that Iran may not be ready for such an expansive strategy, suggesting that the most practical step would be to rewrite the JCPOA.

Ahmadi’s holistic approach involves negotiating with the US on various issues rather than focusing solely on the nuclear file. He argued that the JCPOA was a "single-issue" agreement centered on nuclear concerns, while sanctions related to terrorism and human rights violations remain in place.

In a bold statement during a July interview, Ahmadi had gone even so far as to describe Donald Trump as a "practical" man, suggesting that Iran could have potentially struck a deal with him.

"Putting aside Trump's shortcomings, we must focus on what our national interests demand. Those interests may require us to engage in dialogue, even with adversaries. After all, even North Korea sat down to negotiate with Trump,” Ahmadi said.

Another foreign policy expert in Tehran, Abdolreza Farajirad, told the semi-official ILNA website that it would be unacceptable for the Islamic Republic to give up 60% enrichment and return to the 3.67% JCPOA limit. Therefore, the West should drop the issue of enrichment in its quest to reach an agreement with Iran. Instead, the emphasis should be a ban on developing nuclear weapons.

Farajirad also acknowledged that Iran's regional activities are a matter that must be addressed. However, his proposal for a ban on nuclear weapons overlooks the fact that if Iran is allowed to maintain a breakout time of just a few weeks, there is no guarantee it won't catch the world off guard in the future.

The congratulatory message was posted by the official account of the Islamic Republic’s foreign ministry on X Saturday. Although not unprecedented, the message this year has angered pro-Russia ultra-hardliners in Iran. They accuse the ministry of “humiliating” the country and interpret the move as “self-abasing signals to the West”.

Similar congratulatory messages were sent to Ukraine in 2021 and 2022, but none was extended in 2023. Relations between Tehran and Kyiv have deteriorated significantly since the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) shot down a Ukrainian airliner in January 2020, killing all 176 people on board. The situation has further worsened due to Tehran's provision of hundreds of Shahed suicide drones to Moscow over the past two years, which have been extensively used to target civilian infrastructure and urban centers in Ukraine.

Pro-Russia ultra-hardliners who are already critical of the newly appointed foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, and accuse him of following a “diplomacy of indignity” as opposed to his predecessor’s “dignified diplomacy”, have strongly criticized what appears to be an overture to Ukraine on social media.

“Araghchi has revived the diplomacy of humiliation right away!! The congratulatory message on the Independence Day of Ukraine, despite this country’s hostility to Iran and when it is at war with the Russians on behalf of the West, has an important message to the West and Russia!!,” an angry ultra-hardliner took to X to complain.

Nevertheless, some hardliners on social media have defended the foreign ministry’s move and argued that Russia should be rebuked because, as reported by Azerbaijani media, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov supported the establishment of a Zangezur corridor during Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Baku.

Baku has been demanding a corridor southern Armenia to connect Azerbaijan’s proper with its Nakhchivan enclave separated by Armenian territor. Moscow and Baku want Russia to monitor and control the corridor, but Yerevan and Tehran are opposed to such a scheme, and argue that even if a transport route were to be established, Armenia should have control over it.

“Observance of Russia’s current behavior indicates that Moscow is probably anticipating some kind of control over Zangezur corridor and reviving its influence in the Caucasus which albeit will not be an easy task,” moderate conservative Entekhab news website which called it “Putin’s green light for geopolitical suffocation of Iran”.

Entekhab suggested that the Islamic Republic not delay launching diplomatic efforts to avoid the loss of its current “geopolitical advantage” threatened by the establishment of the transport corridor.

Iran has always opposed the establishment of the transport corridor which will eliminate Iran's direct access to Armenia, if the corridor is not controlled by Yerevan. In a meeting with Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan on July 30, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated Iran's opposition to Zangezur corridor which he said the Islamic Republic considers it “detrimental” to Armenia’s interests.

It is not clear if the congratulatory message to Ukraine was because of a rift between Tehran and Moscow, or simply an attempt to somewhat improve Islamic Republic's image under a new president.

In December 2023, Moscow also repeated its support for negotiations between Iran and the UAE over the three disputed Islands of Abu Musa, the Greater Tunb, and the Lesser Tunb in the Strait of Hormuz, infuriating the Islamic Republic. Tehran summoned the Russian envoy after Moscow signed a joint statement with Arab nations calling for negotiations.

Russia’s long delay in signing a 20-year comprehensive cooperation agreement with Iran despite the aid Iran has offered to Russia in its war against Ukraine has also irritated the Islamic Republic.