Hardline lawmakers poised to block Iran's Reformist ministers

Ham Mihan newspaper which supports Pezeshkian wrote on Tuesday that the combination of the cabinet eliminates any hope for change in Iran.

Sunni leader Molana Abdolhamid said that the list of Pezeshkian’s ministers has disappointed the people. Abdolhamid also wrote that not including religious and ethnic groups in the cabinet leads to disappointment and prevents national accord.

Earlier, many journalists and social media activists criticized Pezeshkian’s choices and expressed the belief that this cabinet is likely to be short-lived.

The centrist Entekhab website has quoted President Pezeshkian as saying that he and his aides have made every effort to select the most suitable candidates from the available pool.

However, critics have already expressed concerns about the appointment of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, a leftover from the previous administration and other military officials appointed to ministerial posts.

Senior Iran International analyst Morad Veisi said that the choice of ministers has proved three things: First, that the majority of people who refused to vote in the election and believed that voting will not change anything were right. Second, even the reformists who encouraged others to vote have now realized that voting has not changed anything in Iran. And third, it proved that the main problem in Iran is the system and the fact that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei controls everything.

Veisi argues that potential voters have come to realize that even changing presidents won't bring any significant change as long as Khamenei holds power. The selection of candidates in Pezeshkian's cabinet, according to Veisi, proves that the election has brought no real change.

For instance, the appointment of IRGC General Eskandar Momeni as Interior Minister suggests that the government's stance on suppressing protests and enforcing the compulsory hijab will remain unchanged. Veisi notes that Momeni's role, which includes heading the National Security Council and overseeing provincial security, will continue to be dominated by IRGC influence, just as it was under the previous administration, where key security positions were also held by IRGC generals.

Momeni's background as Iran's deputy police chief and a senior commander of the Special Forces, responsible for quelling dissent, further indicates a continuation of hardline tactics. Additionally, Veisi highlights that Momeni previously commanded the Morality Police, the main force enforcing the hijab mandate, signaling that the repressive measures against women who defy this law are unlikely to change.

"This comes after Pezeshkian had pledged during his campaign to relax the compulsory hijab rules and ease restrictions on Iranians' access to the Internet, particularly social media. Meanwhile, as debates and criticisms about the new cabinet continue, the previous cabinet remains in place. On Monday, incumbent Culture Minister Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili announced that his ministry has finalized a document to regulate movie supervision. In essence, Esmaili's statement suggests a further tightening of censorship in Iran, allowing the outgoing government to implement these measures without the new administration being held accountable."

These two examples justify the concern that is being expressed by many Iranians, particularly on social media about their fears of further repression on social activism and freedom of expression in Iran. Instead of addressing the concerns, Pezeshkian wants Iranians to wait for another four years and then judge the cabinet based on their performance, mindless of the fact that nearly all of the proposed cabinet members have already a track record of inefficiency as ministers, deputy ministers and state officials. A few have also a record of having been implicated in financial corruption cases and this leaves little hope in the future for many Iranians.

Attention is centered on the Minister of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) nominee as a possible beacon of hope amid Iran's ever increasing internet crackdowns in recent years.

But who is Sattar Hashemi?

Hashemi, 48, is an associate professor in the Electrical and Computer Engineering School at Shiraz University but previously served as the Deputy for Technology and Innovation under Mohammad-Javad Azari-Jahromi, from 2019 to 2021.

What exactly did Pezeshkian promise, and why?

During his presidential campaign, Masoud Pezeshkian repeatedly emphasized his commitment to ending internet bans, declaring: "I will make every effort to reform the ineffective filtering system...We must free the internet." He promised, "I will stand against filtering."

There was a certain appeal to this for some voters because over the past two decades, Iran has enacted widespread censorship measures, blocking access to tens of thousands of websites.

With the advent of social media, platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube have also faced stringent restrictions. Traditional media, literature, and films are similarly subject to heavy censorship, scrutinized for their adherence to Islamic principles and political content.

Iranians often resort to VPNs to gain unrestricted access to the Internet to circumvent these restrictions and bypass filters. In more open societies, VPNs are primarily used to protect user anonymity.

Millions of Iranians have been left poverty-stricken due to internet crackdowns all but obliterating their small businesses which rely on social media, especially affecting women in rural areas.

But the task is so daunting that even within Ebrahim Raisi's hardline administration, there are acknowledgments of presidential power's limitations, particularly concerning internet censorship in Iran.

The outgoing Minister of ICT, Issa Zarepour, conceded that the government lacks the authority to unilaterally lift internet restrictions imposed by the country's small, elite circle of decision-makers around the Supreme Leader. He even criticized presidential candidates who had pledged to do so.

"Those advocating for the removal of internet filtering should recognize that such decisions are often determined in meetings where government consensus does not necessarily align with the majority opinion," Zarepour remarked, alluding to the significant influence wielded by security and intelligence agencies in controlling the flow of information.

Will Hashemi be able to fulfill the promises made by Pezeshkian during his campaign?

Unlike Pezeshkian, Hashemi has not directly addressed the removal of internet filtering in Iran nor made any promises to do so. His proposed action plan simply includes measures to “reform its current implementation.”

However, on Tuesday, an MP quoted Hashemi, stating that he would act according to the system's general policies regarding internet filtering in Iran. In other words, he is unlikely to undertake the necessary efforts to explore potential changes to lift internet restrictions.

During his tenure in the ICT, Hashemi championed what appeared to be a straightforward initiative: the production of Iranian-made smartphones, touted as a means to reduce dependency on imports, create jobs, and bolster Iran's information and communications technology industry.

The Islamic Republic has invested lavishly in this endeavor for years, taking cues from China's model. This has included offering production incentives to over 100 companies last year and allocating a hefty budget for manufacturers, all accompanied by grandiose promises.

Yet, developing a domestic smartphone industry is intertwined with the Islamic Republic's broader agenda of advancing its long-term "national internet" project. The goal is to produce phones equipped with a native operating system designed to limit VPN installation while enhancing surveillance capabilities.

The industry so far has delivered little tangible benefit for the Iranian populace. Instead, it has led to squandering the nation’s budget, funneling significant financial resources into the hands of crony companies and trusted affiliates. Meanwhile, ordinary citizens bear the brunt of daily costs just to access the internet.

Alireza Kolahi Samadi, Chairman of the Industry Commission of the Chamber of Commerce, recently said of plans to have a home-grown mobile phone industry: "It’s the joke of the century that 11 licenses have been granted for mobile [phone] production. One of these units was given 360 million euros in foreign currency."

He further noted that many producers vanish after receiving financial assistance—funds ostensibly intended for creating a national mobile phone with local infrastructure, which has so far resulted in a colossal failure.

Mohammad Reza Faraji, head of the Tehran Computer Technology Union, corroborated this by stating that, as of now, no Iranian-made mobile phones are available on the market.

A time of discontent among reformists

The debate is especially noticeable in a period marked by intense dissatisfaction among pro-reform factions. The discontent reached such a peak that even Mohammad Javad Zarif, instrumental in securing President Masoud Pezeshkian's election, resigned shortly after the new president presented his cabinet list to parliament on Sunday.

Zarif expressed his regret over his inability to implement the committees' expert recommendations to identify the most suitable candidates and his failure to fulfill promises of including women, youth, and ethnic groups in the cabinet.

He disclosed that among the 19 ministers introduced, only three were the primary choices recommended by the steering committee responsible for candidate selection.

With an average age of 60, the cabinet starkly contrasts with Pezeshkian’s earlier pledge that 60% of the ministers would be under 50.

The nation watches closely to see if this youthful appointee will break with tradition or fall in line with the status quo, especially given the daunting challenge of lifting internet restrictions—a task so formidable that even hardliners have admitted it may be impossible.

Speaking on Wednesday, Khamenei underscored that any non-tactical retreat—be it military, political, or economic—invites "divine wrath," as per the Holy Quran.

Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Iran-backed Hamas, was killed in Tehran last month while attending the inauguration ceremony of the new president. He had boasted of his freedom of movement as he strolled around Tehran just hours before his assassination.

Iran has subsequently been biding its time as it weighs retaliation. "Governments that yield to the demands of today's dominant powers, regardless of the size or strength of the nations they represent, could defy these pressures if they draw on the strength of their people and accurately assess their adversaries' true, unembellished capabilities," Khamenei said.

He further criticized the longstanding habit of “exaggerating” enemy capabilities to instill fear, pointing to what he described as US, British, and Israeli efforts since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran has been leveraging its own psychological tactics, building suspense by threatening retaliation over Haniyeh's killing, yet refraining from immediate action.

Some believe that the Islamic government is apprehensive about escalation but uses the threat of an attack on Israel to get concessions from the United States, which has committed itself to preventing a wider conflict. On Thursday, President Joe Biden indicated that a Gaza ceasefire can prevent Iran's potential retaliation, while Hamas can use a cessation in hostilities to regroup and avoid a complete defeat.

As Western powers caution Iran against retaliation, urging restraint to prevent escalating regional tensions and to facilitate the release of over 100 hostages held by Iran-backed Hamas amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Iranian authorities have dismissed the warnings as "illogical and excessive."

Tehran has asserted its right to retaliate for the killing of the Hamas political chief in Tehran without seeking external permission.

Nasser Kanaani, the spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, criticized Western nations for their "apathy," claiming it has allowed Israel to commit "a myriad of international crimes, including genocide and war crimes," in the Gaza war, all while remaining "unpunished."

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Hamas is threatening to boycott the latest ceasefire talks as the possibility of an Iranian retaliation looms.

Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, also has reaffirmed Iran's right to retaliate, publicly aligning with the Supreme Leader's stance, though it is alleged that he privately expressed concerns about the impact of escalation and urged Khamenei to reconsider.

Iran's President acknowledged that war is undesirable but affirmed the right to "punitive responses against an aggressor," according to IRNA.

Meanwhile, Israel's Army Radio reported that Israel warned the US and European nations that any direct aggression from Tehran would trigger an Israeli strike on Iranian territory, emphasizing their intent to retaliate, even without Israeli casualties.

Abbas Araghchi, who has openly aligned himself with IRGC values, firmly rooted in anti-Western and anti-Israel stances, is currently defending his proposed action plan in parliament, where he seeks approval as the nominated minister.

Speaking after Araghchi's parliamentary session, MP Mohsen Fathi quoted him as stating, "The JCPOA is beyond revival. In the new government, our focus is not on restoring the nuclear deal but on lifting the sanctions. We are dedicated to a strategy integrating diplomatic efforts with military strength."

It is not clear how Tehran wants to have the sanctions lifted without a nuclear agreement, unless Araghchi was referring to using diplomatic-military pressure on the United States.

In 2015, Iran and global powers signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran's nuclear activities for sanctions relief. In 2018, then-president Donald Trump withdrew, claiming it failed to address Iran's missile program. Since then, efforts to revive the JCPOA have involved indirect talks, with European diplomats mediating between US and Iranian officials.

Araghchi's remarks mirrored those of the outgoing Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri-Kani who asserted in July that the primary objective of the JCPOA was lifting sanctions.

“We must concurrently pursue both the neutralization and the lifting of sanctions, drawing upon our experiences to refine our approach in future endeavors,” Bagheri-Kani said, suggesting the circumvention of sanctions as has been seen with Iran's illicit oil sales.

The JCPOA is set to expire in 2025 but Araghchi's assertion that the JCPOA is beyond salvage will come as no surprise at home or abroad. The Biden administration declined to resume nuclear talks with Iran under Masoud Pezeshkain's new leadership, citing Tehran's policy of supporting terrorism as a significant obstacle.

Fathi also quotes Araghchi as saying Iran’s foreign policy should be firmly oriented towards “securing the nation’s economic interests.”

“He asserted that economic diplomacy's core mandate is to facilitate global economic engagement by creating opportunities, setting strategic directions, and eliminating barriers to the country’s economic activities on the international stage,” Fathi said on Wednesday.

Tehran's increasingly assertive foreign policy, which appears to be yielding results, may be attributed to the perception of a more lenient stance by the Biden administration. Critics argue that this softer approach has allowed Iran's oil exports to surge, despite the ongoing sanctions.

Iran's oil exports have seen a considerable increase, from 400,000 barrels per day post-2019 US sanctions to over 1.5 million barrels per day currently.

Data from the analytics firm Kpler reveals a 30 percent increase in Iran's oil sales during the last quarter, propelling its fossil fuel exports to their highest level in five years.

However, as tensions rise over Iran's threats against Israel for the killing of Hamas political Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the US State Department is now considering stricter measures to curb Iran's oil exports, reflecting concerns about the broader implications of this financial flow.

In remarks to Politico, a US State Department spokesperson said on Tuesday, "As Iran continues to escalate regional tensions, we will collaborate with our partners to intensify pressure on Iran and curtail their oil exports."

The latest report from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence accuses Iran of becoming ever bolder in boasting about its nuclear weapons as the chances of a return to the JCPOA nuclear deal look to be fading away.

"There has been a notable increase this year in Iranian public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo,” the report stated.

In May, Iranian MP Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani said openly that Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon. It followed closely on the heels of remarks by Kamal Kharrazi, senior foreign policy advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had said that Tehran will change its nuclear doctrine if its archenemy Israel were to attack its atomic facilities.

As Iran exceeds 60 percent enrichment, the UN's nuclear chief, Rafael Grossi, said earlier this year that Iran could build a nuclear weapon in weeks, not months.

Iranian government supporters have attributed the wait to Iran's attempt at psychological warfare while others have suggested it is a means to determine the most effective form of response.

But while the fear and anxiety across the Middle East is not something to be taken lightly, Israelis and Iranians have eased some of their tensions with memes and jokes on social media.

Simcha Brodsky, a host for Open Source Intel, mocked the mixed messaging on the exact timing of the 'imminent' attack. He wrote on X, "Iran will attack in 24 hours...Iran will attack at 10 PM on Monday...Iran won't attack, but Hezbollah will.'

Lebanese-Israeli activist Jonathan Elkhoury, who fled Southern Lebanon 20 years ago as a child because of the persecution of Christians under Hezbollah, posted a video to Instagram after an X account reportedly linked to Iran posted an hourglass with the caption "2:00."

Many social media users were left perplexed by the meaning of "2:00." Elkhoury jokingly asked if that was AM or PM and which time zone was meant by the tweet.

Some Iranian social media users responded that it's 2am Iran time because that's the only time to "beat Tehran traffic."

Holly Dagres, a non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, said dark humor is a way for people in the Middle East to work through adversity.

"For Westerners, gallows humor doesn’t often translate and can often be seen as not politically correct because how can someone laugh at a matter that has serious implications, including war," she said.

"But for Middle Easterners who have experienced so much turmoil through wars, coups, and revolutions, it’s a way to keep themselves sane in a time of fear and uncertainty."

Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli lecturer and author joked that "Iranians are always fashionably late", referring to the time now passing since the brazen assassination on July 31.

Another reason, he wrote, was that the country's leaders "prefer to go holidaying and partying in Dubai and Antalya".

However, Iran's inaugural direct attack on Israel which followed an alleged Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, happened thirteen days after the event which killed two senior IRGC commanders and several other senior figures.

Jonathan Harounoff, an Israel-Iran expert and author of the upcoming book 'Unveiled: Inside Iran's #WomanLifeFreedom Revolt', said that jokes aside, the threats from Tehran are being taken seriously.

"Israel -- and the Iranian people -- know all too well by now that the gerontocratic elite in Tehran favor a foreign policy centered on Israel's demise far more than focusing on the country's socio-economic woes," he said.

This week, Iran branded warnings from France, Britain, and Germany against attacking Israel as "illogical and excessive," asserting that it “doesn't need permission to retaliate" for the killing of the Hamas political chief in Tehran.

On Monday, John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, told reporters “[the attack] could happen as soon as this week".

The assassination in Tehran, which Israel has not claimed responsibility for, has since led to the arrest of dozens in Iran as questions are raised as to how the security breach allowed the killing in the bedroom Haniyeh and his bodyguard were sleeping in.