Tehran faces internal disputes as US and Israel brace for potential attack

Araghchi, born in Tehran in 1962, earned his PhD in Political Science from the University of Kent in the UK.

Araghchi, who, like many Iranian officials, views former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani as "Iran’s role model" and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah as "Lebanon’s role model," joined Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) in the early days of the revolution in 1979.

In a 2013 interview with Panjereh, a weekly publication aligned with the IRGC, Araghchi reminisced about his time as a Revolutionary Guard, saying, "My heart remains with them, and I have carefully preserved the sacred uniforms from those days."

He also described Ali Khamenei as "our everything," and stated, "For me, he transcends the roles of leader and Supreme Leader; in a word, he is 'Agha' (Sire)."

Araghchi has one daughter and two sons. In the same interview, he mentioned that his son-in-law is a cleric, adding, "To me, the clerical robe is sacred; it embodies virtue and is without flaw."

In 1989, after his service with the IRGC, Araghchi worked as a diplomat in Saudi Arabia. In 1999, Araghchi was appointed as Iran's ambassador to Finland. He later served as Iran's ambassador to Japan from 2007 to 2011. Following his tenure in Japan, Araghchi returned to Iran, where he took on the role of Deputy for Asia at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and briefly served as the ministry's spokesperson.

Role in foreign ministry during President Rouhani’s administration

Araghchi served as deputy to Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during Hassan Rouhani's administration, playing a pivotal role in the negotiations that led to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. His involvement in the talks alongside Zarif brought Araghchi widespread recognition.

However, his experience in Iran's nuclear negotiations extended back to the tenures of Ali Larijani and Saeed Jalili as secretaries of the Supreme National Security Council. During the JCPOA negotiations, many viewed him as Khamenei's trusted representative on the nuclear team—a belief later validated by his subsequent appointments.

In the final days of Rouhani’s government in 2021, Araghchi, as head of the nuclear negotiation team, traveled to Vienna to lead talks on reviving the JCPOA with the Biden administration. However, the negotiations failed to produce any results, with Rouhani and Zarif attributing the failure to domestic sabotage and parliamentary interference.

When Ebrahim Raisi's administration took over, all members of Zarif's team were dismissed. However, Araghchi was appointed as the Secretary of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, a position he still holds today. The Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, established in 2006 by order of the Supreme Leader, has its members appointed directly by Khamenei.

Kamal Kharazi, head of the council, stated in October 2021, "The Leader's view on Abbas Araghchi was that he should be utilized within the council, leading to his appointment as secretary."

Under Raisi's administration, Iran’s acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri-Kani, a close associate of hardliner politician Saeed Jalili, assumed the role of chief negotiator with the West. Bagheri-Kani was reported to have adhered to Jalili's negotiation strategies, which ultimately failed to produce any agreements. In 2013, Araghchi remarked on Bagheri-Kani, saying, "We differed in our negotiation approaches, but I had, and still have, great respect for him."

Family controversies and nephew’s corruption scandal

During his tenure as Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs under President Hassan Rouhani, Abbas Araghchi was indirectly involved in a corruption case.

His nephew, Ahmad Araghchi, appointed as Deputy for Foreign Exchange at the Central Bank in August 2017, was arrested in August 2018 on charges related to a foreign currency exchange corruption case.

At the time, conservative media outlets criticized Ahmad Araghchi’s appointment at the Central Bank as an example of "nepotism and family favoritism."

Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the judiciary spokesperson at the time, accused Ahmad Araghchi of "disrupting the country’s economic, foreign exchange, and monetary system."

Ahmad Araghchi was released on bail two months after his arrest, but his legal ordeal continued. Initially, Tehran's Revolutionary Court sentenced him to eight years in prison as the case’s second defendant. However, the Supreme Court later overturned this sentence, reducing his sentence to fines, while the prison sentences of most other defendants were upheld.

Opposition to Iran’s Woman Life Freedom protests

During Iran’s "Woman, Life, Freedom" nationwide uprising, which spurred large-scale protests by the Iranian diaspora in support of demonstrators inside Iran, Abbas Araghchi, Secretary of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated, "We should not allow protests to be constantly held against us…Although I believe the Islamic Republic is stronger than this and won’t be shaken by these winds, we still must ensure that the damage does not escalate."

The new president’s prayer leader

With Masoud Pezeshkian’s confirmation as a presidential candidate, Araghchi, along with other former members of Rouhani’s government, threw his support behind him.

On June 8, 2024, during the election campaign, a photo emerged from Pezeshkian's campaign headquarters showing him and Zarif praying behind Araghchi. This image energized Pezeshkian's supporters and positioned Araghchi as the leading candidate for Minister of Foreign Affairs in the upcoming administration.

Now, with Pezeshkian’s presidency underway, Araghchi is poised to potentially return to the top position at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is expected that he will face some tough opposition in parliament for his role in the nuclear deal, but if Khamenei has already agreed to his candidacy, he will eventually receive a vote of confidance.

Pezeshkian's administration, which pledged to reduce tensions in foreign policy, faced an immediate crisis when Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran just one day after the inauguration.

The killing of Haniyeh and the possibility of Iranian retaliation against Israel could shift the primary issue on Araghchi’s desk from reviving the JCPOA to addressing regional conflict.

Since the July 31 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has been threatening to avenge his death by attacking Israel. However, media reports over the past few days pointed to internal disagreements in Iran over the dangerous escalation. There were also reports that Iran is thinking twice, following pressures by the Biden administration.

However, Israel's updated intelligence assessment is that Iran has decided to avenge Haniyeh's killing by launching a direct attack on Israel, which could happen within days, a Sunday report by Axios said citing informed sources.

"This is a change from the assessment of the last few days, which suggested that international pressure on Iran was restraining it from carrying out a direct attack against Israel," the report said.

The assassination of Haniyeh has become a flashpoint in the already volatile region. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement, both Iran and Hamas have blamed Israel for the killing. This accusation has fueled fears that the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip could spiral into a wider war, dragging other regional players into the fray.

The Israeli public broadcaster, Kann News, reported on Sunday that the prevailing understanding within the Israeli security establishment is that Iran is "determined to launch an attack soon."

While the attack's timing is not yet clear, the Axios report says it may happen before August 15, when talks were supposed to be held between Hamas and Israel over a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages.

However, Hamas said in a statement on Sunday it refuses to participate in the hostage deal negotiations on August 15.

Hamas's statement is "a tactical move ahead of a possible attack by Iran and Hezbollah and in an attempt to get better terms for the deal," an Israeli official told Axios. "If Hamas won't come to the table, we will continue decimating their forces in Gaza."

The Hezbollah factor

Adding to the tension is the involvement of Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon. According to a CNN report, Israeli intelligence believes that Hezbollah may launch an attack on Israel as early as August 12, with Iran possibly following up with a second wave of strikes shortly thereafter.

Despite suffering heavy losses in the ongoing conflict, including nearly 400 fighters and commanders killed by Israeli strikes, Hezbollah has shown no signs of backing down. In fact, the group whose senior military commander Fuad al-Shukr was recently assassinated by the IDF has only intensified its attacks on northern Israel, expanding its list of targets to include towns that had previously been spared.

Israel's preparedness

In an unusual public statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson clarified that despite the recent reports regarding Iran’s plans, there has been no change in the directives from the Home Front Command. However, the IDF and other security establishments remain on high alert, closely monitoring developments in Iran and Hezbollah.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking to new IDF troops, issued a stern warning on Sunday: "Whoever will harm us in a way that he has not acted in the past, is also likely to get hit by us in a way that we have not acted in the past. These are things we don't want but we need to prepare for them, and they may happen."

Tehran's dangerous game

Despite the warnings and ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, Iran seems determined to press ahead with its plans. According to an exclusive report by Iran International, President Masoud Pezeshkian recently met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to plead against direct military action on Israel, warning of catastrophic retaliation that could cripple Iran's already fragile economy. Yet, Khamenei appears undeterred, signaling a willingness to risk economic collapse and potential downfall in pursuit of his regional agenda.

This latest development marks a dangerous shift from the shadow war that has characterized Iran-Israel relations for years to open confrontation. On the evening of April 13, Iran launched an unprecedented assault on Israel, deploying over 300 cruise and ballistic missiles, along with drones; however, almost all of them were intercepted by a US-led coalition. Israel's response was swift and decisive, targeting a military base in Isfahan on April 19, a clear demonstration of its capability and willingness to retaliate against Iranian aggression.

However, the Israeli intelligence community's assessment confirms threats by Iranian military officials that Tehran's new strike will be "harsher" than the April attack.

Zarif revealed that of the 19 ministers introduced, only three were the first choices recommended by the steering committee responsible for candidate selection. He noted that ten of the proposed ministers were not on the council's list at all.

Zarif's resignation underscores his frustration with the process, lamenting that he was unable to implement the expert opinions of the committees formed to find the best possible candidates or fulfill his promises to include women, youth, and ethnic groups in the cabinet.

"I am not satisfied with the outcome of my work and I am ashamed that I could not achieve the expert opinion of the committees and the inclusion of women, youth, and ethnic groups as I had pledged," Zarif stated in his post. He further announced his intent to return to academia, apologizing to the Iranian people for his inability to navigate the complexities of domestic politics.

Zarif’s resignation has intensified scrutiny and criticism of Pezeshkian's cabinet choices. Azar Mansouri, head of the Reform Front, also condemned the proposed cabinet, remarking that "One should not expect miracles from this government, especially considering that more than 80% of the country's power is in the hands of other entities."

Pezeshkian’s cabinet: old faces, old problems

Pezeshkian's list of proposed ministers, sent to Parliament for approval, has drawn criticism for being a step backward. The cabinet, with an average age of 59.7 years, contradicts Pezeshkian’s earlier promise that 60% of the ministers would be under 50. In reality, only two ministers fall into this category, leading to widespread disappointment among those who expected a younger, more dynamic government.

Abbas Araghchi, introduced as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, served as the deputy to Zarif during Hassan Rouhani's presidency, playing a key role in the nuclear negotiations with the West. Meanwhile, Esmail Khatib, nominated as the Minister of Intelligence, has a negative record, including the explosion in Kerman on the death anniversary of former IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani in January, which resulted in hundreds of casualties, as well as the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

The inclusion of figures like Abdolnaser Hemmati, former Central Bank head and 2021 presidential candidate, as Minister of Economy, further underscores the lack of new blood in the cabinet.

According to an investigation by Iran International, 11 of Pezeshkian’s proposed ministers have previously served in the administrations of Raisi and Rouhani. This recycling of political figures suggests a continuation of the same policies that have led Iran into its current state of crisis.

Alireza Kazemi, proposed as the Minister of Education, is another controversial choice. Kazemi, the brother of the IRGC Intelligence Chief, has a background in seminary teaching and drug control, raising concerns about his relevance to the education ministry.

Reformist discontent and Khamenei’s influence

The proposed cabinet has drawn sharp criticism from reformists, who are dismayed by the inclusion of several conservative ministers from the Raisi administration.

Rahmatollah Bigdeli, a member of the Government’s Strategic Council, pointed out that the most important ministries have been handed over to 'Principlists,' indicating a consolidation of hardline power.

Political activist Abdollah Ramezanzadeh criticized the nomination of Eskandar Momeni as Minister of the Interior, stating, "The worst periods for the Ministry of Interior in the past 46 years have been when military personnel were in charge." This sentiment reflects broader concerns about the increasing militarization of Iran’s government.

Political analyst Reza Alijani highlighted the pervasive influence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the selection of ministers, noting that the Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Intelligence, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs are all critical points that Khamenei has secured for his loyalists. This observation underscores the limited autonomy Pezeshkian has in forming his government, with Khamenei’s shadow looming large over the process.

A cabinet under fire

The discontent surrounding Pezeshkian’s cabinet is palpable. Reformists are particularly upset by the absence of Sunni representation and the inclusion of only one woman among the proposed ministers.

Political activist Ahmad Zeidabadi pointed out that the cabinet "has two or three fundamental flaws," but if Pezeshkian believes he can work with these choices, "there is no reason for us to be more royalist than the king."

Pro-reform activist and former MP Parvaneh Salahshouri was even more direct, writing on X that Pezeshkian "has failed his first test except in a few cases." This sentiment was echoed by other reformist activists, who had warned Pezeshkian before the cabinet announcement that his selections were problematic.

Javad Emam, spokesperson for the Reform Front, criticized the continued dominance of military and paramilitary forces in Iranian politics, questioning the point of holding elections if the outcome remains unchanged.

"Ultimately, the President is responsible for his cabinet, and no lobbyist or imposing figure will take responsibility for the government. So, while there is time, reconsider," Emam urged Pezeshkian.

Even Shahram Dabiri, Pezeshkian’s Parliamentary Deputy, acknowledged the influence of Khamenei in the cabinet formation, writing on X that Pezeshkian had clearly stated that the cabinet members would be selected with Khamenei's opinion and approval.

A government of crisis

Political analyst Rouhollah Rahimpour summed up the situation by stating that Pezeshkian is starting his government with three major crises: political-security, social, and regional. The challenges facing this new administration are immense, and with a cabinet that appears to be more of the same rather than a harbinger of change, the prospects for meaningful reform in Iran look increasingly bleak.

Following repeated threats from Iranian officials to avenge the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the Islamic Republic is apparently holding a series of military exercises amid fears of a full-blown war with Israel.

Morad Babakhani, the political deputy governor of Qasr-e Shirin in Kermanshah province confirmed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been conducting military drills from August 9 to 13.

Babakhani sought to reassure local residents by linking the sound of explosions to the exercises, claiming there was "no reason for concern." However, the reassurances do little to mask the broader implications of the IRGC's maneuvers.

Preparing for war or training Russian personnel?

A new NOTAM issued on Saturday warned pilots to avoid flying over an area near Iran's Nojeh air base in Hamadan due to scheduled gunfire from August 11 to 14. It is not yet clear if the NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) issued for Hamadan air base is connected to the Sunday wargames, but the warning might suggest a scenario that is not much relevant to the ongoing Iran-Israel tension, but to the ongoing conflict in Europe.

Reuters reported on Friday that dozens of Russian personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fat’h-360 close-range ballistic missile system.

In 2016, Iran granted Russia permission to conduct air operations in Syria from the same airbase in Hamadan, and it seems a likely scenario that the Russian personnel are using the Nojeh airbase again, this time for training purposes.

In the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, Russia has tried to remain neutral and publicly called for restraint from both sides. However, according to a report by The New York Times on Monday, Iranian officials claim Russia has begun delivering advanced air defense and radar equipment to Iran following Tehran's request for these arms, increasing Tehran's preparedness for a possible war with Israel.

A dangerous game: Tehran’s aggressive posturing

Iran and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas have accused Israel of killing Haniyeh on July 31. While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the killing, the incident has heightened fears that the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip could escalate into a broader conflict across the Middle East.

The IRGC's military exercises come at a particularly precarious time. According to an exclusive report by Iran International, President Masoud Pezeshkian has recently met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to plead with him to avoid direct military action against Israel. Pezeshkian reportedly warned Khamenei that any such move could provoke Israeli retaliation, targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure and energy resources.

The potential consequences are dire: a full-blown conflict that could cripple Iran's already struggling economy and possibly lead to the clerical rulers’ collapse. Yet, despite the warnings and the calls for restraint, the Islamic Republic appears intent on escalating the situation. It has threatened to launch direct missile strikes on Israel in response to Haniyeh's assassination, a move that would almost certainly trigger a response from Tel Aviv.

Global pressure and diplomatic efforts

In recent days, international diplomatic efforts have intensified to dissuade Tehran from following through on its threats. The Guardian reported on Thursday that the Islamic Republic might be reconsidering the scale and nature of its retaliatory attack against Israel, largely due to significant diplomatic pressure aimed at preventing civilian casualties.

However, the lack of explicit support from Islamic countries for Tehran's military response does not seem to have deterred Iran. Reports from The Telegraph indicate that while the IRGC is pushing for a missile strike on Tel Aviv, Pezeshkian has suggested targeting Israeli-affiliated sites in Azerbaijan or Iraqi Kurdistan as an alternative, with prior notification to those countries.

Simultaneously, Politico reported that the Biden administration has been working through diplomatic channels to persuade Tehran to reconsider its plans for a military attack on Israel. US officials have warned Iran that a large-scale assault would only escalate tensions and increase the likelihood of a direct confrontation between the two nations.

The reality of escalation

Despite the diplomatic efforts, the situation on the ground suggests that Tehran is preparing for another serious escalation. On the evening of April 13, the Islamic Republic launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, using over 300 cruise and ballistic missiles and drones. This marked the first direct assault by Iran on Israeli soil, signaling a shift from the years-long shadow war between the two countries to open confrontation.

Israel’s response was swift and decisive. On the morning of April 19, Israeli forces targeted a military base in Isfahan, underlining their readiness to retaliate against Iranian aggression.

Iran’s security and intelligence agents are pressuring political prisoners at Evin to make false confessions against each other after a violent assault by guards on Tuesday against several female prisoners at the notorious jail, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi.

They had protested the execution of Iranian dissident Reza Rasaei. In a statement, Mohammadi’s family said that following the execution of Reza Rasaei, several prisoners gathered in the prison yard to protest against the death penalty given to Rasaei, among over 300 to have taken place since the start of the year.

“Narges and several other prisoners protested against the locked doors that were preventing critically ill inmates from being taken to the prison clinic," the statement said. "They attempted to get those in need of urgent medical attention out of the ward and to the infirmary."

The women's ward was subsequently "flooded with military forces," and an order was given to "assault the protesters", the statement said. The violent crackdown resulted in severe beatings, with some prisoners sustaining physical injuries and others experiencing nervous breakdowns.

During the assault, Mohammadi, who suffers with a heart condition, was "repeatedly punched in the chest by male military and security guards," causing her to collapse in the prison yard with intense chest pain.

Despite her condition, no efforts were made to transfer her to the infirmary or a hospital. Instead, a prison doctor entered the ward, and Mohammadi, who displayed "bruising and soreness" on her chest, arms, and right hand, announced her intention to file a lawsuit over the assault.

Although she was administered painkillers and blood pressure medication, the family expressed deep concern that the guards "might have intentionally targeted her chest" given her condition.

In a statement expressing "alarm and urgent concern" for the well being of Mohammadi and other prisoners attacked by the guards, New York-based PEN America highlighting past instances where Evin prison authorities had neglected and delayed medical care for political prisoners with fatal outcomes.

Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi also sounded the alarm over the safety of political prisoners assaulted on Tuesday.

"The lives of Narges Mohammadi, Sarvenaz Ahmadi, and all political prisoners in various prisons are in danger. They are paying the price for the insatiable totalitarianism of the Islamic Republic,” Ebadi said in a post on Instagram.

Moreover, elite students Ali Younesi and Amir Hossein Moradi, imprisoned in Evin Prison, started a hunger strike on Saturday to protest the attack on the women’s ward.

Amid growing media scrutiny and widespread condemnation following the incident, Iran's Prisons Organization issued a rare statement on Friday through Mizan, a judiciary-linked outlet, addressing the incident.

The statement claimed that a group of inmates in the women’s ward, "with the instigation of Narges Mohammadi," rushed towards a guard, broke a lock, and attempted to enter the outer courtyard.

The Prisons Organization acknowledged that security personnel intervened but insisted that guards acted to maintain order, downplaying the severity of the injuries and asserting that no prisoners were harmed. The statement also claimed that "the guards and the prison protection unit did not enter the prison or fight with the inmates."

The Prisons Organization further said that two prisoners experienced heart palpitations and stress due to the commotion but were found to have no significant health issues after being examined and were returned to the ward. The organization maintained that "the general condition of both prisoners is good."

Despite the official denial, accounts from within the prison indicate that prisoners are being denied medical care for their injuries and are being forced to give false confessions against one another.

This is not the first time guards have attacked prisoners at Evin. In 2021, a leaked CCTV video showed guards assaulting a prisoner who collapsed and was dragged away by the arms.

The ongoing abuses at Evin Prison reflect the challenges faced by the Iranian government as it continues to battle the biggest threat to its legitimacy since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979.