Iran hardliners in denial of losing presidential election

On Thursday, the US Defense Intelligence Agency said a missile launched by Houthis towards a Norwegian-flagged oil tanker in the Red Sea last December is likely to have been an Iranian-made anti-ship cruise missile.

Iran’s UN envoy on Friday denied that Iranian weapons may have been used to target commercial vessels, claiming that the Houthis have developed significant military capabilities on their own.

The Houthis began targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea after Israel began its onslaught against Gaza in response to Hamas’ attack on Israel last October. The rebel group says its only objective is to disrupt the flow of goods to and from Israeli ports. And it has to some extent succeeded at that, forcing many of the biggest logistics companies in the world to reroute.

Iran has consistently supported and praised the Houthis, but rejected claims that it has provided them with arms.

In January 2022, the French Navy intercepted an Iranian ship in the Gulf of Oman, with thousands of rifles, machine guns, and anti-tank missiles. A month later, another Iranian ship carrying ballistic missile components bound for Yemen was seized by British forces.

In late May this year, the IRGC affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that the technology for Iran's first naval ballistic missile (called Qadr) had been transferred to the Houthis. The Houthi missile "Moheet" was reportedly modeled after the Qadr.

The US Defense Intelligence Agency in its Thursday report linked Iran with the attack on the Norwegian-flagged ship, Strinda. The report seems to corroborate the findings of a Norwegian insurance company that had examined material recovered from the ship.

The Strinda, carrying a cargo of palm oil from Malaysia to the Suez Canal, was struck by a missile on December 20 last year, causing a major fire but no crew injuries. An investigation by the US military showed that parts of the missile engine found on the ship matched those of the Iranian anti-ship cruise missile, “Noor”.

The missile, developed by reverse-engineering the Chinese C-802 anti-ship missile, has a range of up to 170 kilometers, with its upgraded version, Qadr, said to be capable of reaching targets 300 kilometers away. The Houthis possess a similar missile named Mandab-2 with comparable range.

The authorities in the affected regions, Behbahan and the neighboring Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces, have reportedly struggled to contain the blazes.

Despite the deployment of two Red Crescent helicopters, local media report that the fire remains unchecked.

The fire, which ignited on Monday afternoon, has reemphasized concerns among observers about the vulnerabilities in Iran's nature reserves and the state's failure to protect these critical areas.

Azam Bahrami, an environmental activist, spoke to International, highlighting the lack of effective planning for such disasters: "There is no proper planning in place in Iran to deal with such fires," she said, pointing out flaws that exacerbate the situation in Khaeez and the broader Zagros region.

Confirming extensive damage, Hamzeh Mohaqeqzadeh, the governor of Kohgiluyeh district, reported that large areas of farms, grasslands, and plant life have been consumed by the fire.

Environmental activists have long advocated for more effective firefighting strategies, especially in terrains characterized by mountainous regions, dry vegetation, and strong winds, as these measures could help prevent such disasters.

"Khaeez is burning, and there is nothing we can do about it," said Behnam Andik, a water resources student at the University of Tehran who expressed his frustration on social media about the lack of resources.

Bahrami also criticized the state's Crisis Management Organization for its ineffectiveness, noting, "The Organization is essentially a crisis in itself, despite being a complex body with influential members, including the governor and the president."

He also pointed out that the budget, ranging from 6,000 to 7,000 billion rials (approximately 10 to 11.5 million USD), is insufficient to handle natural disasters such as fires and floods.

The ongoing fires in Khaeez, home to wildlife such as deer, goats, leopards, and caracals, highlight both an environmental catastrophe and a governance failure. Established in 1998 and spanning over 33,000 hectares, this protected area is crucial for biodiversity and the livelihoods of local and nomadic communities.

Following a fire in the Zagros forests on June 24, the state-run Tasnim News Agency quoted environmental activist Mohammad Yazdanpour, who claimed that the fires were intentionally set to convert the forest into vineyards and fig orchards.

Yazdanpour also mentioned that the Crisis Management Organization failed to convene a meeting to address the situation, which was a departure from their previous responses to such incidents.

Reza Dadmehr, a retired forestry professor, spoke to state-owned IRNA in December 2023 about the lack of modern firefighting equipment in Iran's forests.

"One of the reasons for the prolonged firefighting efforts in forests is the lack of new equipment. The obsolescence of firefighting facilities and equipment, along with economic and social challenges, are major contributors to these fires," Dadmehr said.

As Iran's forests, especially in the Zagros range, face ongoing threats from fires worsened by land-clearing, agricultural mismanagement, and inadequate crisis response, these challenges will continue to endanger one of the nation's most vital ecological and cultural resources.

Hussein emphasized to US Acting Under Secretary for Political Affairs John Bass "the need for a quick and fair solution that serves the interests of both parties and enhances financial stability in the region," according to an Iraqi Foreign Ministry statement.

This is while, in May, a senior Iranian official stated that Tehran has no blocked funds in Iraq, following sanction waivers issued by the current US administration in 2023 and earlier this year, allowing Baghdad to release these funds.

Iran exports natural gas and electricity to Iraq, but Baghdad could not pay the debt due to US banking sanctions imposed on Tehran in 2018. However, the renewal of Iraq’s waivers by both the Trump and Biden administrations has mainly been a routine matter.

Nevertheless, while exempting Iraq from sanctions on importing energy from Iran is not a new policy, Baghdad's permission to make payments in hard currency is a recent development. The Biden administration introduced this provision last year as part of the waiver and has faced backlash from US lawmakers since.

The Biden administration has stated that the funds, held in euros in Oman, can only be used for humanitarian purposes under the waiver's terms. However, critics contend that this arrangement has effectively freed up resources for Iran to support its proxies across the Middle East and advance its nuclear weapons program.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will endorse Pezeshkian and inaugurate his presidency at a ceremony on July 28. Two days later, he will be sworn in by the Parliament after which he will have two weeks to present his cabinet for a vote of confidence.

Pezeshkian's campaign has formed committees to investigate candidates for ministerial positions. Every committee, the campaign says, must include two academics and two “non-academic elite professionals", a representative of the Reforms Front, a representative of the private sector appointed by the Chamber of Commerce, two representatives of trade associations and non-governmental organizations, a representative of former ministers as well as a representative of “women and ethnic [groups] or [religious] minorities”.

The campaign has also said that at least 60 percent of the proposed ministers must be under 50 years of age, 60 percent should not have served as ministers in other governments and 20 percent must be women or belong to minorities.

Pezeshkian is first and foremost under pressure from voters who expect him to form a “different” cabinet that meets their many demands for improvement of Iran's international ties and the economy as well as more social freedoms and freedom of speech.

There are claims that Pezeshkian is under pressure from reformists and their de facto leader, former President Mohammad Khatami, to pick his cabinet members from among their candidates but neither Pezeshkian nor his campaign has commented about these claims so far.

The Sunni minority and various ethnic groups who voted for Pezeshkian expect him to give a proportionate share to their representatives in his cabinet, a difficult task given the Shiite nature of the regime. At the same time, women also expect him to appoint one or several female ministers.

Only one woman has ever been accepted as a minister in the Islamic Republic. It was under populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, before he fell from Khamenei’s favor in 2011.

Hamideh Zarabadi, Pezeshkian’s campaign spokeswoman, said Thursday that at least one woman is likely to be included in his list of proposed candidates.

Reformists' supporters have repeatedly reminded Pezeshkian of their role in his victory by chanting Khatami’s name as well as the name of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the leader of the Green Movement who has been under house arrest since 2011, during campaign and post-election gatherings.

Supporters of his rivals have also been urging him to include some of their candidates in his cabinet to prove that he is an independent as he insists he is.

Above all these pressures and demands, Khamenei has always been heavily involved in the appointment of cabinet ministers according to an unwritten law that allows him to veto the president’s choices even before the cabinet’s presentation to the parliament.

Pezeshkian canceled his press briefing with international and domestic media representatives a day after the announcement of his election win to hold a five-hour meeting with Khamenei. He is likely to have been “advised” about his future moves including forming his cabinet. 

The president’s powers in the appointment of ministers of foreign affairs, interior, defense, and intelligence are particularly limited since these ministries are considered as Khamenei’s "domain".

Reformist newspapers reported in 1997 that the conservative Ghorbanali Dorri-Najafabadi was the fourteenth option on the list of intelligence minister candidates that the reformist Mohammad Khatami proposed to Khamenei to get his approval.

Similarly, in 2011, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s insistence on replacing the intelligence minister, Heydar Moslehi, led to an eleven-day standoff between the Leader and the president. Ahmadinejad was reportedly given a choice: to keep the minister or resign.

Pezeshkian may face fewer challenges in appointing vice presidents who sit in cabinet meetings since the Parliament's approval is not required for these positions. Nevertheless, his choice of the head of the Atomic Energy Organization is considered very sensitive and likely to depend on Khamenei’s approval.

The new president and his supporters may be counting on some support from the more pragmatic hardliner Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf for helping the approval of his cabinet candidates. The latter’s bid for the presidency was aborted by ultra-hardliner rival Saeed Jalili and the Paydari (Steadfastness) Party that supported him.

Supporters of the two hardliner parliamentary factions have been blaming each other for the defeat in the snap elections and are fighting a full-on battle on social media.

"The regime in Iran is using the utmost brutal means to fight its opponents. Human rights violations occur day-to-day. This was also the case with Sharifeh Mohammadi,” Korte said in a statement.

Korbe added that “Almost two years after the murder of Jina Mahsa Amini, we Europeans must not tire of taking a principled and public stand against the crimes in Iran. We must make it clear: We are watching and protesting."

The death sentence for Mohammadi, a labor activist imprisoned in Iran on trumped-up charges of armed rebellion, has sparked widespread condemnation from activists. They maintain that the sentence is based on the pretext of her membership in an independent, public, and legal labor organization from a decade ago, highlighting the perceived unfairness of the verdict.

Mohammadi, arrested in December 2023, represents one of the latest victims in a wave of executions intended to suppress dissent. According to the United Nations, 834 Iranians were executed last year, marking a record high and a 50 percent increase from the previous year. Among those executed, at least 22 were women, positioning Iran as the world's leading executioner of women. The 2023 figures, the highest since 2014, were reported by Iran Human Rights.

Since the Woman Life Freedom movement in 2022, several members of the German parliament have been politically sponsoring Iranian political prisoners, many of whom face imminent execution on spurious charges.

During the nationwide protests in Iran, security forces conducted a severe crackdown. This response resulted in the deaths of at least 550 protesters and was condemned as a crime against humanity by a UN fact-finding mission.