Raisi’s Death May Disrupt Engineered Succession Plans in Iran

According to a detailed report by the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, “officers from Narmak police station were patrolling when they encountered a suspicious young man near his motorcycle. Upon detecting the police, the man immediately opened fire with his handgun, critically wounding one officer who subsequently succumbed to his injuries at the hospital”.

Tasnim identified the assailant as a well-known criminal involved in drug trafficking, describing him as a “top-level thug” as Iran cracks down on drug crime.

The situation escalated when police officers traced the suspect and attempted an arrest. However, the confrontation quickly turned deadly as the suspect engaged the officers with gunfire, killing two additional policemen and severely wounding two others.

“The gunman was ultimately neutralized by police fire during the shootout, ending his spree of violence,” added Tasnim.

The two officers injured in the exchange are now receiving urgent medical care in a local hospital, with their condition reported as critical.

The flight was shot down by two air-defense missiles fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on January 8, 2020, shortly after taking off from Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport, killing all 176 aboard.

The group accused him of not only being complicit in maintaining open Iranian airspace during the shooting down of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 but also in actively obstructing the victims' families' quest for truth.

In July, Britain, Canada, Sweden, and Ukraine lodged formal complaints against Iran at the International Court of Justice, accusing the Islamic Republic of intentionally shooting down the plane. Additionally, in January, these nations submitted a complaint to the UN Aviation Council, seeking to hold Iran responsible for the aircraft's downing.

The association's statement highlighted Raisi's involvement as a member of the Supreme National Security Council on the night of the downing.

“We demanded a fair trial and punishment for him to confess to his crimes and taste the punishment. This opportunity was taken from us, but it must be said that we are not sorry for his death. We neither forget nor forgive the killers of Iran's children," the association's statement said.

In April, the Tehran military court sentenced the operator responsible for firing the missiles at the plane to 13 years in prison and ordered him to pay compensation. Among the military personnel accused, none of the high-ranking military or government officials of the Islamic Republic are named.

In a message on X, Saeed remarked, "I haven't seen my mother this happy in years." The sentiment reflects the scars left by Raisi's tenure as head of the judiciary, a period characterized by repression and injustice, particularly for families like the Afkaris who suffered directly under his rule.

Navid Afkari was executed on September 12, 2020, after enduring a controversial trial marred by inconsistencies and accusations of torture that occurred during Raisi's tenure.

His execution, amid international condemnation, became a symbol of the regime's oppressive tactics against dissent and its punitive measures against those who dare to challenge its authority.

The torment endured by Navid's family continued as Saeed recounted an incident involving another brother, Vahid. He described how, after Navid’s execution, representatives from Raisi's office coerced Vahid with a life-threatening ultimatum in the shadows of Adelabad Prison in Shiraz, underscoring the impact of Raisi’s policies on countless Iranian lives.

As news of Raisi’s death spread, reactions within Iran were divided, with the majority expressing their jubilation on social media—a contrast to the official mourning period declared by the Supreme Leader. The celebrations reflect a pent-up resentment and opposition toward a regime viewed as suppressive and economically disastrous, highlighting the deep divisions within Iranian society.

The comment by Afkari comes amid an escalating use of the death penalty in Iran, following the unprecedented nationwide protests in 2022. An Amnesty International report released last month, titled "Don't Let Them Kill Us," highlighted an unprecedented surge in executions in Iran in 2023. The report noted that at least 853 individuals were executed, with a significant portion of those executed being minorities, including Kurds.

“Mr. Mokhber will manage the executive power in line with Article 131 of the Constitution and will coordinate with the heads of legislative and judicial branches to elect a new president within fifty days,” stated Ali Khamenei in a message of condolence. The swift transition underlines the regime's intent to maintain a firm grip on power amidst potential instability.

At 68, Mokhber, who has historically maintained a low profile, is stepping into the limelight under controversial circumstances. His tenure as the head of the Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order (EIKO), and former chairman of the board at Sina Bank, has been marked by ambitions overshadowed by inefficiency and opacity, particularly noted during Iran's struggle to produce a COVID-19 vaccine. Promises of widespread vaccine availability were unfulfilled, raising questions about the allocation of resources and government accountability.

EIKO is an extensive tax-exempt, "charitable" business conglomerate controlled by Khamenei's office, which has its tentacles on a range of sectors in Iran's economy.

Despite the controversies, Mokhber's academic credentials include a doctorate in international law and he has been a member of Iran’s Expediency Council since 2022. His past inclusion and subsequent removal from the European Union's sanctions list for alleged involvement in nuclear or ballistic missile activities adds a layer of international scrutiny to his new role as acting president.

Amidst the leadership upheaval, Ali Bahadori Jahromi, the government spokesman, revealed another significant appointment. Ali Bagheri Kani, previously a political deputy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a former Deputy Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has been named head of the government's Foreign Relations Committee.

Kani, known for his role in the September 2023 prisoner release deal with the United States, represents a continuity of Iran's hardline stance in its international negotiations.

The death of former foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was an opportunity for Mr. Khamenei to appoint a more seasoned and "moderate" figure to try to find some common ground with the United States over its controversial nuclear program and regional issues.

As Iran observes five days of national mourning declared by Khamenei, the recent events not only cast a shadow over Iran's internal governance but also signal potential shifts in its foreign policy approach under new leadership fraught with challenges and skepticism.

In an interview with state TV, he said the sanctions compromise Iran's access to modern aviation facilities, thus implicating the US in the Sunday chopper crash in northwestern Iran killing Ebrahim Raisi and his entourage including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

"One of the culprits behind yesterday’s tragedy is the United States, because of its sanctions that bar Iran from procuring essential aviation parts," Zarif asserted during the interview.

His statement comes amid the ongoing geopolitical tension where Iran has increasingly aligned itself with Russia and China, raising questions about its continued reliance on outdated American helicopters like the Bell 212.

The Bell 212, a civilian adaptation of the Vietnam War-era UH-1N "Twin Huey," crashed in heavy fog while traversing mountainous terrain. Developed in the late 1960s for the Canadian military and introduced in 1971, this model was designed to offer enhanced carrying capacity with its dual turboshaft engines.

However, in spite of sanctions, Iran continues to manufacture and supply its own armed forces and proxies around the region, in addition to Russia, with state of the art missiles and drones. Armed groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran’s own Quds Forces boast long range high-tech weaponry.