Following the recent air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, several Friday Imams in Iran called on the government to exercise caution and avoid rushing into retaliatory actions against Israel.
Hassan Ameli, the representative of the Supreme Leader in Ardebil, emphasized the need for a composed response, stating, "We will not make a decision regarding revenge against Israel based on emotional impulses." He further stressed the importance of a comprehensive strategy in determining the appropriate course of action.
Lotfollah Dezhakam, representing Ali Khamenei in Fars province, echoed similar sentiments, asserting that “Israel made a mistake that it now regrets.”
Mohammad Mehdi Hosseini Hamedani, another representative of Khamenei in Alborz province, also emphasized the importance of strategic patience in the face of provocation from adversaries.
Friday Imams' statements in Iran are commonly viewed as coordinated semi-official messages provided to them by a central office under the control of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Many analysts believe that the regime's longstanding strategy of refraining from direct conflict with Israel will persist despite recent provocations. Instead, Iran is expected to continue supporting its proxies in launching attacks on Israeli and US targets.
Iran supports various proxy groups across the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and various militias in Iraq and Yemen. Through financial, military, and ideological support, Iran aims to extend its influence, counter perceived adversaries such as Israel and the United States and promote its revolutionary ideology. The proxies often serve as a means for Iran to exert pressure on regional rivals.
Iran’s state media quoted Safavi as saying that Russia has been able to consolidate its hold over occupied territories since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel that unleashed the Gaza war.
Ali Khamenei’s advisor also reiterated statements by other Islamic Republic officials that Israel is losing the Gaza war, and the United States is losing power and influence in the Middle East.
The leaders of the clerical, military government in Iran find themselves in an uncomfortable situation since April 1, when a precision Israeli air strike killed two top Revolutionary Guard generals and five other officers in Damascus. These individuals who were apparently in charge of Tehran’s war on Israel in Lebanon and Syria, were holding a meeting in one of the buildings in Iran’s embassy compound.
Although Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials vowed revenge, many experts and observers believe Iran’s rulers are reluctant to undertake actions that could precipitate a wider war with Israel. But at the same time, they could lose credibility among their domestic followers and regional proxies, if they do not launch a military response.
Rahim Safavi highlighted apparent rifts between the Biden administration and the Israeli government, saying that “Differences have emerged even between the US President and the Zionist regime, to the extent that the American side has told Israel that if they don’t change their policies, America will have to change its approach.”
Israeli attacks have killed 18 senior IRGC officers since December, a trend that has become difficult to explain away by the Islamic Republic.
Aftab News, an agency close to more moderate factions in Iran, highlighted the dilemma the Iranian regime faces in the wake of the Israeli strike in Syria. In an analysis on Friday, the website wrote that previous threats of retaliation after Israel killed Iranian forces never materialized.
“It seems that a series of Israeli attacks on individuals and interests of the Islamic Republic, and the failure to fulfil the promise of ‘hard revenge,’ have increased dissatisfaction among its own forces. This dissatisfaction recently reached a peak with Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, leading to calls for a ‘decisive and swift response’ from various political spectra, especially the Revolutionary Guards,” Aftab News said.
However, numerous commentators in Tehran, who are allowed to speak to the government-controlled media, have urged a measured reaction to Israel's Monday attack, cautioning that the strike could be a ploy to draw Iran into direct conflict.
Others in Tehran argue that if the Islamic Republic fails to show a forceful response, Israel will become more emboldened and increase the intensity of its attacks. Mohammad Sadeq Kooshki is a professor in Tehran University who told Etemad News that if in the past 30 years Iran had shown reacted forcefully to Israeli provocations, today, it would be safer from attacks.
The Iranian regime is not just vulnerable because of Israeli strikes, but it has lost popularity among the majority of the people who have suffered from runaway inflation and overall economic regression. The danger of fresh unrest is ever present following repeated nationwide protests since 2017.
Messages sent to Iran International revealed a deep disconnect between the state-sponsored event and public sentiment. These messages paint a clear picture: Iranians are increasingly critical of government-sponsored annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day rallies, viewing them as irrelevant and hypocritical distractions from pressing domestic issues.
A veteran of the Iran-Iraq war questioned the government's priorities. "Why there is no day of recognition for Sistan-Baluchestan, Kerman, Bam, or other neglected parts of Iran?" he asked, highlighting the government's lack of interest in the plight of the residents of the most deprived Iranian cities.
Disillusionment with the regime's narrative was evident in almost all the messages. A citizen condemned the government's purported concern for Palestinians as "hypocrisy and deceit," stating, "People no longer accept either the Islamic Republic or its Quds Day."
Political commentator Ali-Hossein Ghazizadeh criticized the Quds Day ceremony on Iran International, stating, "The ceremony lacks any representation of Iranian national symbols. The music played during the event is entirely Arabic and focuses on Jerusalem. It fails to connect with the Iranian people."
The declining popularity of the rallies was also noted. Another viewer emphasized that over the past four decades, public participation in such government-led ceremonies has waned, with little sign of ordinary Iranians or those unaffiliated with the ruling apparatus attending such gatherings.
Some people pointed out the disparity between the government's emphasis on these ceremonies and its approach to Iran's domestic issues, with many criticizing its focus on its regional policies while neglecting domestic problems.
One Iranian called Quds Day "a glossy cover-up for domestic corruption," while another stated that "These ceremonies and their promises of financial aid to the people in Gaza are a smokescreen for large-scale theft by government officials."
The metaphors used by some people were particularly striking. Using a Persian proverb that is the equivalent of “being more Catholic than the Pope,” one criticized the regime’s extravagant ceremonies for Quds Day in an audio message. While another linked Quds Day’s origins to the establishment of the Islamic Republic, implying its association with "the destruction and misery of the Iranian people." Directed against Israel’s existence, Al-Quds Day was proclaimed by the founder of the Islamic Republic Ruhollah Khomeini on August 7, 1979, a few months after the establishment of the Islamic Republic.
Another message went further, arguing that the Islamic Republic's regional policies not only fail to help Palestinians or achieve "Palestinian independence," but actually worsen their situation. A citizen stated it bluntly: "The Islamic Republic's meddling has left Palestinians and Lebanese helpless. Despite this government's rhetoric, where in the region do we see peace?"
This sentiment was echoed by another who viewed Quds Day as a day of "betrayal of peace and friendship in the region" which only contributes to the Islamic Republic's "warmongering approach." They argued that since the Islamic Republic's rise to power, the region has seen only the discord.
One message highlighted the contrasting approach of the Abraham Accords, through which Israel is pursuing peaceful relations with Arab countries. The message noted that before the recent escalation ignited by Hamas's invasion of Israel on October 7, normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia were nearing completion.
The recurring theme in people’s messages was comparing the Quds Day rallies to a "carnival" masking a destructive reality: The Islamic Republic keeps proclaiming its desire to eradicate Israel from the face of the earth but prioritizes turning Iranians into "sacrificial lambs" rather than directly confronting its archnemesis.
The precision airstrike that demolished a building in the Damascus embassy compound on April 1, prompted the chief commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Hossein Salami to announce on Friday during the anti-Israel Quds Day that no attack on “our sacred system [regime] will remain unanswered.”
“We will make them regret this crime and other similar ones with the help of God,” Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, said a day after the attack."
Despite Tehran's saber-rattling, Israeli experts are skeptical that Khamenei will authorize an attack, which would be directly attributable to Tehran.
Yossi Melman, a veteran Israeli columnist for the left-leaning Haaretz, told Iran International that the Iranians “will strike but not from their territory.” He said the attacks could emanate “From Iraq and or Syria and more intensively.”
The Islamic Republic has targeted Israeli diplomats for assassination and its installations via its proxies like Hezbollah across Europe over the past four decades. A telling example, Iran’s IRGC paid a Pakistani man in Germany to assassinate pro-Israel advocates, Melman noted. He also highlighted that the “Americans are warning Iran that Iran should not be involved in war.”
In a White House readout of the Thursday conversation between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the statement said “The two leaders also discussed public Iranian threats against Israel and the Israeli people. President Biden made clear that the United States strongly supports Israel in the face of those threats.”
Melman said if the Islamic Republic launched missiles at Israel from within the territory of Iran, “Israel could use Jericho missiles for the first time because they are the only missiles that can reach Iran from Israeli soil.”
Yigal Carmon, the former counter-terrorism advisor to two Israeli Prime Ministers, told Iran International "Iran is not ready nor willing to have a direct total war with Israel. Therefore even a direct Iranian attack on an Israeli embassy abroad is not probable.”
Carmon, who is the president and founder of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), added, “Khamenei’s policies over the years show a combination of caution and cowardice. Iran’s reactions to Israeli and American attacks in the past show a pattern of escalation when they believe the adversary is weak. And they back down when they see their adversary is strong and shows deterrence, and is ready for war.”
Carmon famously predicted the Iran-backed Hamas attack on Israel in Iran International comment on September 5. He said a major attack will unfold either in September or October. Carmon is a fluent Arabic speaker and well-versed in the inner workings of the Islamic Republic.
He added that “Iran has a mega-plan, which is the vision and legacy of the founder of the Islamic Revolution, to turn the whole region gradually, in a long-term well planned process through local proxies, into a region under its Shiite hegemony.”
The Iranian regime’s imperialist reach has extended to Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria where Khamenei has cultivated terrorist movements and militias.
Carmon, who has been a sharp of critic of Netanyahu’s government for cooperating with the Islamist regime in Qatar in sending funds to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip prior to October 7, said “Contrary to what the Israeli establishment believe, that Israel’s preventive strikes deter Iran, the truth is that no attacks such as the one in Damascus deter it, in the same way that the killing of Soleimani did not deter Iran from pursuing its plans.”
The former colonel in Israel’s military intelligence, Carmon, warned that Iran “will follow their mega-plan undismayed by Israel’s attacks and move on to their next immediate target: Jordan.”
He said Iran seeks to “topple the Jordanian Kingdom” and, as part of its grand plan to reshape the Mideast to “turn Jordan from a pro-Western country into a country ruled by pro-Iran militias like Iraq.“
He warned that if the Jordanian state collapses into Iran’s yoke, Tehran “will activate the pro-Iran militias to attack Israel from the East, as well as escalate in the north and with whatever power Hamas still has in Gaza.”
Tehran-born Ben Sabti, an expert on Iran from the Israeli National Security and Strategy Institute, told Iran International “My assessment is that Iran won't attack Israel directly, because there is not any use in it.”
He said that “anything that Iran can do, their proxies can do too, so why will Iran, which has kept itself out of the war until now, suddenly should throw itself into the conflict.”