Iran's Top Security Official Meets Iraqi PM

Taghi Azad Armaki, a Tehran University academic argued in an interview that “the Iranian society has made a decision to disengage from the country's political system, preferring to pursue their own paths. Armaki argued that activists should not wait for the system's collapse or a potential war.”

Armaki pointed out that the new generation of Iranians primarily seeks a simple and peaceful life, devoid of political entanglements. He noted the widespread apathy towards political developments, including the upcoming elections in Iran, as people from various backgrounds and political affiliations have tirelessly strived for change over the past century, only to become disillusioned with politicians. The younger generation, in particular, tends to disregard political matters and the government altogether.

He clarified, "It is not that the Iranian society is indifferent. The issue is that the people want nothing to do with the government. Armaki attributed this disillusionment to various factors, including the perceived absurdity of elections, such as the Assembly of Experts election, where President Ebrahim Raisi is the sole candidate for his constituency and can secure a seat with just his own vote.

Reformist journalist and political activist Ahmad Zeidabadi echoed these sentiments, questioning the legitimacy of elections where a candidate can be elected with a single vote they cast themselves. "When Ebrahim Raisi can be elected to the Assembly of Experts with only one vote to represent the Southern Khorasan Province, based on what definition this can be called an election?” Zeidabadi emphasized the financial burden of such elections on the people and the futility of holding elections when the ultimate decision-making power remains outside the public's reach.

Armaki also noted that his generation was willing to take up arms against the political system before the 1979 revolution, whereas the Generation Z participants in the nationwide protests of 2022 did not entertain the idea of armed struggle.

He further highlighted that previous high voter turnouts had created an illusion of popularity among government insiders. However, recent elections with significantly lower turnout rates indicate that voters are not supporting specific candidates or political groups but seeking substantial change.

Armaki, like other academics such as Mohammad Ghasim Osmani, emphasized the growing disconnect between the Iranian people and the government. While the society still exists, it has disengaged from the government, reflecting a sense of hopelessness rather than despair. The government, on the other hand, has isolated itself within its own circles.

Referring to the current government, Armaki said: "Raisi has gathered a group of illiterate youngsters around himself. It is good to have young officials, but these officials should be able to bring about change.”

Armaki also commented on the situation of female lawmakers in the Iranian parliament, noting that they may appear as women, but often express views aligned with hardliner male counterparts. He questioned the government's emphasis on encouraging more children when it comes at a high cost. Additionally, he lamented the sight of young Iranians unable to care for their elderly relatives due to financial constraints.

Some other Iranian academics have taken a more radical stance on the situation in Iran. Bijan Abdolkarimi has even declared the Islamic revolution dead. He has criticized the government for attempting to address modern problems with outdated seminary knowledge and for lacking an understanding of freedom, leading to a dangerous widening gap between the people and the government.

Alongside the suspension of vehicles and the closure of establishments, authorities have now intensified scrutiny on ecommerce, citing concerns over "improper hijab" during the shopping period.

They have targeted images on websites and social media deemed to violate strict compulsory hijab regulations. The crackdown has affected numerous bloggers and businesses in the women's clothing sector, leading to page suspensions and post deletions, according to Didban Iran.

One women's clothing vendor, conducting both offline and online sales, spoke of being compelled to remove images following guidelines mandating closed coats and jackets, prohibiting street-location product photography, and banning the use of mini scarves. Any exposure of body parts and the use of distressed jeans is also strictly prohibited.

Reza Olfat Nasab, a member of the Union of Virtual Businesses' board of directors, said that “image regulations are just one of many concerns". She explained, "Larger issues such as internet speed and restrictions pose significant hurdles to the industry's operations.”

The increased enforcement of hijab comes in the wake of extensive protests in Iran following the death of Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in 2022 while in morality police custody. Amini's arrest in Tehran, reportedly for violating the Islamic republic’s compulsory hijab requirement, sparked one of the largest uprisings since the regime came to power. 

Women nationwide have been actively contesting the mandatory hijab, leading to heightened vigilance from hijab enforcement personnel in public areas like subway stations, schools and universities and public spaces.

In a statement, the council emphasized that despite the continued use of capital punishment, the government has failed to suppress the people of Iran who have been in the midst of the biggest anti-government unrest since the regime came to power.

"The act of execution is an inhumane, irrational, unethical practice and is the product of the will of the ruling minority, and until today, the punishment of execution has failed to subdue the people of Iran," the association statement said.

The condemnation follows Monday's outcry by over 430 civil and political activists within Iran, who criticized the execution spree, citing contradictions with the country's legal system.

The executions of four Kurdish prisoners—Pejman Fatehi, Mohsen Mazloum, Mohammad (Hazhir) Faramarzi, and Vafa Azarbar— at Ghezel Hesar Prison in Karaj, near Tehran, in late January ignited significant outrage. The men were accused of plotting to blow up a defense ministry facility in Najafabad in July 2022, as well as being labeled Israeli agents. Their executions particularly incensed many Iranians, leading to a general strike in Kurdish areas of the country.

Furthermore, the recent executions of Mohammad Ghobadlou, a protester from the 2022 demonstrations, and Farhad Salimi, a Kurdish political prisoner accused of murder, have drawn widespread condemnation from both domestic and international human rights organizations.

The surge in executions in Iran is notable, with 90 executions reported between December 22 and January 21 alone. According to UN experts' reports, Iran executed at least 834 Iranians in 2023, with eight of them reportedly linked to nationwide protests.

Last week, the Central Banks of Iran announced the issuance of special certificates of deposit with an annual profit rate of 30 percent (paid monthly), a measure aimed at incentivizing people to keep their capital in banks instead of exchanging them to other currencies and keep them at home. In February 2023, Iran had raised the interest rates from about 15 percent to about 22.5 percent exactly to prop up the rial, a move that failed to strengthen the national currency. The rial fell from 400,000 per dollar in January 2023 to 500,000 by May.

According to Ehsan Khandouzi, Iran’s Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, the Central Bank has authorized the issuance of this specific type of deposit bond with a total value of 2.8 quadrillion rials, or about$5.6 billion.

Although the timespan was announced to be only a week, some banks refused to offer the service in the early days due to several opaque issues not addressed in the central bank’s directive, such as details about the break cost and the taxation on the profit, according to Iran's leading economic newspaper Donyaye Eghtesad (World of Economy). However, according to Fararu website, about 98 percent of the total amount of bonds were sold by Monday, the fourth day of the implementation of the plan.

The rial was on a nosedive last week after an attack on a US base by Iran-backed militia in Jordan killed three US service members and injured more than 40 others. The looming shadow of a war involving Iran led to an extraordinary rise in exchange rates, bringing the price of every US dollar close to 600,000 Iranian rials. However, the rial bounced back regaining around 50 percent of the lost ground following what was perceived as limited US retaliatory strikes against a series of Iran-linked targets in Iraq and Syria, with the danger of a direct attack on Iran receding.

According to Etemad newspaper, the purpose of raising interest rates is to encourage the flow of funds in the Iranian market and preventing the conversion of rial deposits into foreign currency. Proponents of the decision argue that the financial tool was used by Russia’s central bank and was successful in managing the psychological impact of the war in Ukraine on the Russian ruble. Opponents argue that such a high interest rate will make the Iranian stock exchange market redundant as people may remove their funds and deposit it in the banks.

Nour News, a media outlet linked to Iran's Supreme Council of National Security, said that given the country’s soaring inflation rate, the decision to increase interest rates aimed at encouraging people from converting foreign currencies into rials "and control the currency markets was inevitable.”

Economist Ghodratollah Emamverdi argued that the government seeks to attract financial resources towards the banking system, essentially implementing a form of monetary contraction policy. Referring to the timing of the measure that coincided with intense ups and downs in the value of the rial, he said the devaluation "has a direct correlation with military and political insecurities in the region and the emerging threats, lack of political interactions between Iran and its neighbors and the entire world, especially with the United States.”

But the question is, how the government intends to pay the high interest to investors. Most believe that the only mechanism the central bank has is to print money.

Emamverdi believes that the government does not expect the rial to regain its value, claiming that “Money creation in the banking system has become endogenous, and, in fact, the banking system creates money out of thin air.”

Financial consultant Habil Khavari told ILNA that the especial bonds were issued to funnel people’s stray funds wandering between gold and foreign currencies, noting that the government resorts to such measures near the end of each year to make up for its budget deficit. The Iranian year ends on March 20. But this year, the total amount involved and the higher interest rate are notable.

As the special bonds were selling like hot cakes in the volatile Iranian market, the government may now have enough reason to extend the plan or allocate additional funds for it. Donyaye Eghtesad said on Monday that, considering the unexpected yet significantly positive feedback to the measure -- which led many banks to quickly reach their limits -- the Central Bank is expected to respond to the popular demand with an announcement in the coming days.

The head of the FIO, Ali Fekri, disclosed the figures on Monday, stating that the majority of direct investment from abroad came from Russia, the UAE, China, Turkey, Iraq, India and Oman.

“Over the course of the Raisi administration until December, a total of $10.6 billion in capital entered Iran, with Russia accounting for approximately $2.7 billion of the amount. The oil and gas sector saw the highest capital attraction, with five investments totaling around $4.8 billion," he said.

Comparing foreign investments, Turkey received $4.8 billion in foreign direct investments only in the first half of 2023.

Saudi Arabia is aiming to attract $3 trillion in foreign investment by 2030, to improve economic development, technology transfer, job creation, and boosting non-oil exports.

Unlike Turkey and Saudi Arabia, where foreign investments play a significant role in driving economic growth and infrastructure development, Iran faces challenges in tapping into its potential as an attractive destination for foreign capital.

The militant activities of its proxies abroad, economic sanctions, human rights abuses at home and regulatory uncertainties continue to hinder Iran's potential to attract investment.