Advocate Of ‘Maximum Pressure’ On Iran Chairs Key Senate Committee

This week, Iran International and Semafor simultaneously released a report revealing that several individuals closely connected to President Joe Biden's former Iran special envoy, Robert Malley, were part of an influence network established by Iran's foreign ministry.

The president of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) recommends examining the emails and scrutinizing the subsequent actions of those involved in the influence operation.

One of the people who is named by Albright is Ali Vaez. Malley recruited Vaez to the Crisis Group in 2012. In a 2015 article on its website, the Crisis Group emphasized Vaez's role in the nuclear agreement, stating that he was trusted for his “impartiality”, leading “the US, Russia, China, Germany, the UK, and France to engage with him through telephone conversations, emails, and negotiations.”

The report names individuals like Vaez and Ariane Tabatabai as close associates of Robert Malley, whose security clearance was suspended earlier this year, leading to an FBI investigation for mishandling classified information.

The nuclear proliferation expert also expressed his willingness to engage in an open discussion about the actions of the Iranian individuals. He recalled their opposition to US positions and advocacy for Iranian interests during the JCPOA negotiations, emphasizing the need to counter their efforts both privately and publicly.

Since the report exposed the Iran-backed influence operation in Washington, many prominent Republicans in Washington have criticized the Biden administration.

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, are set to meet on October 4. The panel, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, can call for a full OPEC+ meeting if warranted.

Four OPEC+ sources who declined to be named told Reuters that the committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during Wednesday's meeting as tighter supplies and rising demand drive an oil price rally. Global crude oil prices rose about 30% in the quarter as OPEC+ production cuts squeezed supplies.

Oil has jumped towards $100 a barrel for Brent crude, the highest since 2022, over OPEC+ policy of output cuts and rising demand. The rise of about $30 for each barrel can bring about a handsome boost to Iran’s struggling economy, despite the significant discounts Tehran provides to buyers while the Biden administration has notably relaxed the enforcement of US sanctions. 

The rise can potentially increase Iran’s annual revenues by more than $10 billion annually, given that fact that the country exported close to two million barrels of crude per day in July-August.

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With oil rallying, some analysts have cited an increasing probability the Saudi voluntary cuts will be reduced. There are also speculations that the curbs to be extended into 2024. The Saudi and Russian cuts are on top of earlier curbs announced since late 2022 and expected to dominate oil prices for the remainder of this year. The next full OPEC+ meeting is not until November.

There is "increasing probability the voluntary supply cuts by Aramco are reduced," Reuters cited National Australia Bank analysts, referring to Saudi Arabia's state oil producer.

Foreign sources monitoring Iran’s oil shipments estimated in August that daily exports reached close to two million barrels per day, after climbing to above one million in 2022 and 1.5 million earlier this year. A Reuters survey published August 31 showed that OPEC’s oil output rose in August as Iranian supply jumped to its highest since 2018, despite ongoing cuts by OPEC+ alliance to support the market.

SVB International, a consultant, estimates Iran's oil production increased in August to 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd), with crude oil and condensate exports stood at just under 2 million bpd. "Iran is on the path to recover its pre-sanctions oil production," said SVB's Sara Vakhshouri.

With the discounts Iran is offering to China, its main customer, it was probably earning just under $30 billion annually earlier this year. But with more shipments and higher prices, the income can climb to above $40 billion. However, it is not clear how much it receives in cash and how much is bartered for essential imports.

Since the United States exited the JCPOA nuclear accord and imposed the sanctions in 2018, Iran has been selling its oil by clandestine methods to China. Export volumes and prices are a state secret, and all figures are estimates by industry observers and occasional bits and pieces of information from government officials.

“US officials privately acknowledge they’ve gradually relaxed some enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil sales,” Bloomberg News revealed last month. The monetary impact of these sanctions relief measures can be determined by approximating the rise in Iranian exports resulting from reduced enforcement and subsequently projecting the added value of these increased sales.

According to US-based think-tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), “Depending on the discount Iran offered to incentivize purchases from a sanctioned government, the estimated value of Tehran’s additional oil sales — the difference between its realized revenue and what it would have earned if its exports remained at the maximum pressure period’s average level — was $26.3 to $29.5 billion, a number that will continue growing while enforcement remains lax.”

The Pentagon's report stated, “North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations remain persistent threats as they continue to further pursue and develop WMD.”

Regarding Iran, the report indicated, “It is assessed that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program at this time but has the capacity to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear device in less than two weeks.”

Additionally, the report acknowledged Russia as an "acute threat" and identified China as a "pacing challenge."

“The PRC (People's Republic of China) has expanded and modernized nearly every aspect of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), with a focus on offsetting US military advantages,” added the report.

Additionally, it emphasized that China presents the "most comprehensive and urgent challenge" to the United States.

Regarding Russia, the report noted, "Russia poses the most acute nuclear, biological, and chemical threat in the near-term and will continue to retain WMD capabilities in the medium and long term."

The document expressed concerns about Russia's lack of transparency concerning its former Soviet program and its continued secrecy surrounding potentially dual-use biological research.

In the section on North Korea, the report mentioned, “Capability developments provide the DPRK with options for nuclear weapons use at any stage of conflict.”

The Islamic Republic claims it is not pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, but Western countries and Israel say that Iran's nuclear program, especially the enrichment of 60% uranium and the production of metallic uranium in Iran, has no connection to peaceful nuclear knowledge applications.

Switzerland's Federal Council added in its statement that the new punitive measures are in line with those of the European Union and include bans on the sale, supply, export and transit of components used for the manufacture and production of drones.

According to the statement, the new package also targets financial and travel sanctions against persons and entities connected with support for Iran's drone program.

“In view of Iran's continued military support for Russia's military aggression against Ukraine, which is contrary to international law, and the fact that Russia is using Iranian-made Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to support the military aggression,” the Federal Council adopted the sanctions imposed by the EU on 20 July as part of its new framework for restrictive measures. “Switzerland is incorporating these new sanctions measures into the Ordinance on Measures against the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

In July, a group of European Union candidate countries -- namely North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine, Republic of Moldova, and Bosnia and Herzegovina -- aligned themselves with an EU Council decision to introduce a fresh sanctions framework aimed at Iran's support for Russia's war on Ukraine.

Switzerland has been adopting the EU's sanctions listings regarding the supply of Iranian UAVs to Russia since autumn 2022, the last time being on 16 August.

Earlier in the week, as a fresh Ukrainian report outlined the use of Western parts in Iranian-made drones, Washington issued a set of fresh sanctions on a procurement network.

The move is the latest in a series of recent Western sanctions on Iran for supplying hundreds of kamikaze Shahed drones to Russia. Moscow has used the lethal weapon to attack civilian and infrastructure targets, as well as to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses during large missile attacks.

Iran International and Semafor this week simultaneously published similar versions of the report, shedding light on the Islamic Republic's influence network (IEI) within the United States and Western decision-making circles. The report garnered significant attention in the German media landscape. Notable publications such as Die Welt, Berliner Zeitung, Bild, and Taz have extensively covered this revelation.

Die Welt, in an article titled "A trace of the Iran network also leads to Berlin," emphasized the sensitivity of the publication’s timing and raised questions about the inclusion of a German name within the report. The publication expressed surprise at the lack of coverage by major American newspapers, including The Washington Post and The New York Times, regarding this crucial and sensitive matter.

Die Welt referring to an email sent by Adnan Tabatabai to Iranian former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in which Tabatabai offers that members IEI (Iran Experts Initiative) could write articles to be published under the names of current or former Iranian officials potentially using false authorship, to promote Iran’s views in the West.

Die Welt's perspective underscores the uniqueness of this situation, noting that among the experts mentioned in the Iran International report, only Adnan Tabatabai disputes the authenticity of the disclosed documents. Regardless of the material's authenticity, the article raises questions about the boundaries between independent experts and their areas of expertise. It emphasizes that IEI members in this context have openly advocated for a diplomatic approach in negotiations with Iran, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining independence within their respective fields of expertise.

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Berliner Zeitung has raised the possibility that one of Germany’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs partners, Adnan Tabatabai, may have acted as a "Ghost writer" for the Iranian authorities within Germany. This revelation has the potential to be a critical situation for FM Analena Baerbock.

There are suspicions that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may have also provided support to a think tank closely aligned with the Iranian government.

According to Berliner Zeitung, Adnan Tabatabai has made multiple public appearances alongside Analena Baerbock in the past, and his think tank, Carpo, has received significant funding from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Over one million euros of public tax funds have been allocated to Carpo as a partner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for various dialogue projects. Adnan Tabatabai serves as the CEO of Carpo.

The discussion surrounding this issue has also been extensively covered by Taz and Bild. Bild, published a photo of Adnan Tabatabai alongside German Foreign Minister Baerbock, raising questions about potential ties to Iranian intelligence. The article implies that Tabatabai’s interactions with the federal foreign minister go beyond mere support for Iran's authoritarian regime.

Furthermore, Bild highlights a serious suspicion that Adnan Tabatabai actively engaged with the Iranian regime to promote public relations for Iran’s nuclear program. The leaked emails provide insights into how the Iranian regime utilized initiatives to influence the foreign policies of Western nations, with some experts reportedly obtaining government positions in the United States.

Despite being the sole individual vehemently denying the contents of the Iran International report, Adnan Tabatabai has repeatedly defended and whitewashed the Islamist regime in the media in recent years.

Die Welt claims that the German MFA has not answered its questions about Adnan Tabatabai, raising more questions about the extent of IEI's influence on the relationship between the United States and Iran.

However, the German MFA sent a short reply to the Berliner Zeitung, stating, “Previous project funding never resulted in privileged, exclusive, or advisory access to the Foreign Ministry.” In a recent interview with Die Welt, Tabatabai reported on his "exchange of content with employees of Germany MFA," based on current developments and conducted in person.