No Way Out Of Crisis For Iran Except Détente, Says Reformist

The official who requested anonymity was accompanying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his trip to Italy on Saturday. He insisted that the Israeli government knew about the talks between Tehran and Riyadh “for a long time” and was following the process.

The official said that Saudi Arabia’s decision to re-establish diplomatic ties with Iran, severed since 2016, will not have an impact on the chances of Israeli-Saudi relations.

The Netanyahu government and President Joe Biden’s administration have been trying to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, which has been holding out, making demands both on Israel and the United States.

However, since the news of the Iranian-Saudi deal broke on Friday, many commentators have seen the development as a win for China that brokered the agreement.

The Wall Street Journal in an editorial blamed Biden and the Democrats for annoying the Saudis and pushing them into China’s arms. The Journal said, “the symbolic import is hard to miss as Democrats in Washington do everything they can to harass and annoy the Saudis,” adding that getting a cold shoulder from Washington Riyadh decided to “hedge” its bets.

The Israeli official also said that in case of a decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel “is neither dependent on anyone, nor waiting for anyone’s permission.” However, he added that Israel will be happy with US political and military support and backing from European countries.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has described the resumption of ties between Tehran and Riyadh as harmful to chances of bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, saying that it is a serious defeat for Netanyahu.

Netanyahu faces serious opposition at home for his domestic policies and his critics charge that because of his entanglements at home, he missed the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement.

The senior official agreed that Israel’s internal crisis impacts its confrontation with the Islamic Republic and for this reason the political row should be ended as soon as possible.

Some Israeli media argued that the resumption of diplomatic relation will not dampen Saudi Arabia’s opposition to the Shiite regime in Iran and Riyadh remain open to joining the Abraham accords.

The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported this week that Saudi Arabia is demanding concessions from the Biden administration to join the peace accords with Israel. It wants US assistance in developing a nuclear power industry and less restrictions on arms sales to the kingdom. Many see the Chinese-brokered deal with Iran as further pressure by Riyadh on both the United States and Israel.

Some Israeli media have also reported that Saudis want Israel’s help in securing their demands from Washington.

Saudis have long said that formal diplomatic relations with Israel depend on a peaceful resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, though the two have been conducting business and security cooperation behind closed doors for some time. Saudi also opened its air space to Israel, in the wake of the Accords, signed in 2020.

Over five days of negotiations, it was agreed that the two countries will reinstate embassies and missions after seven years of deadlock.

Saudi Arabia severed relations with the Islamic Republic in January 2016 after pro-government Iranian mobs attacked and ransacked its embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad following the execution of a Saudi Shiite cleric.

Relations remained tense as Iran expanded its influence in Arab countries with substantial Shiite populations and built up its proxy forces opposed to Saudi Arabia and supporting Iran’s regional policies.

The most crucial bilateral tension was with Yemen, where Iran supported Houthi rebels against the remnants of the country’s legal government, supported by Saudi led forces. However, a truce has been holding since last year.

The Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, ‘the representative of the Supreme Leader’, Saudi Arabia’s national security advisor Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban and China’s Wang Yi, Director of the office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, all signed the deal.

China’s role in mediating the detente amid serious Western tensions with Iran signals the elevation of its status as a Middle East power player. Beijing has good relations both with Riyadh and Tehran and its success this week will irk other parties such as Qatar which has long tried to position itself as the region’s negotiator.

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Reinstating relations with the most powerful Persian Gulf nation will be seen as a huge boost to Iran which is facing serious economic problems due to the lack of a nuclear agreement with the West and US sanctions weighing heavily over its finances. This has been exacerbated since the recent protests which began in September.

Meanwhile, the revived relationship does not alleviate Saudi’s concerns for the regime’s continued expansion of its nuclear capacity. Saudi Arabia and the United States have allegedly been in talks to build Saudi’s own civilian nuclear program as fears around Iranian actions grow and even the Persian Gulf's most powerful nation seeks greater security reassurances from its allies.

In spite of tense relations between the Biden administration and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the de facto ruler, Saudi Arabia also wants fewer restrictions on US arms sales, according to the New York Times.

People close to the talks say the US is leveraging the request to force Saudi’s hand to normalize relations with Israel, furthering the Trump-negotiated Abraham Accords which saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco sign up to diplomatic ties with the Jewish state. Sudan has since joined.

Saudi has long said that formal diplomatic relations with Israel depend on a peaceful resolution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, though the two have been conducting business and security cooperation behind closed doors for some time. Saudi also opened its air space to Israel, in the wake of the Accords, signed in 2020.

However, as revelations of Iran’s growing capabilities continue and the JCPOA talks look no more likely to be revived after their collapse last year, the Kingdom is seeking other options. It is no simple process.

The US has no desire to give Saudi nuclear capabilities - Biden having already stated a desire to make the Kingdom a “pariah state” following the execution of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi embassy in Istanbul in 2018. In spite of a visit last year, relations between the two countries remain tense.

Such a deal would no doubt be greatly challenged in Congress where several Democrats have voiced a desire to downgrade not increase relations with Saudi Arabia, where dozens of executions continue each year, without trial, and human rights are still widely violated, according to rights groups.

Without the assurances of a body such as NATO, agreements to arm Saudi could be a huge risk and possibly the end of the Biden administration.

Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut and a member of the Foreign Relations Committee and a vehement campaigner to limit US arms sales to Saudi, told the New York Times: “If we’re going to enter into a relationship with the Saudis where we’re doing more significant arms sales, it should be in exchange for better behavior toward the United States, not just better behavior toward Israel.”

According to Iranian media, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his "neo-con" allies face a preponderance of hardliners who want to win power.

Ghalibaf won the speakership of the Majles (parliament) in 2020, despite the fact that his allies constituted a minority among the ultraconservative groups that control the parliament. His winning cards were his close ties to the IRGC and his kinship with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Nonetheless, those he calls "radicals" and teases as "revolutionaries" could have prevented his ascension to the Speaker's chair. They let him go forward only after he gave them concessions such as posts in and out of the parliament using his influence.

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For the next year's elections, however, some young ultraconservatives such as populist Roads and Housing Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash and radical cleric Hamid Rasaei seem to have started early campaigning that marginalizes "old” conservatives such as Ghalibaf.

According to Rouydad24 news website in Tehran, young ultraconservatives have formed the Strategic Council of the Supporters of the Islamic Revolution (Persian acronym Sharian) led by Bazrpash. A group of conservatives also formed an alliance called the "Society To Revive the Popular Institutions of the Islamic Revolution" led by Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani. The latter's opening session was attended by heavyweight hardliners such as Gholamali Haddad Adel, a former Majles speaker whose daughter is married to Khamenei's son Mojtaba.

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This group operates under the umbrella alliance called the council of Coalition of Revolutionary Forces (Persian acronym Shana).

Although both groups do not shy away from claiming that they want to monopolize political power, Sharian is better positioned as it rallied some 500 aspiring younger politicians in its general assembly, a far larger number than Shana.

Members of the older group say they are looking for unity among conservatives, an idea that failed to materialize during the past 30 years.

Young ultraconservatives, on the other hand, come from the same party that disrupted any attempt to unite conservatives during several parliamentary and presidential elections in Iran. Their party, Paydari, once close to former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, believes in networking at the bottom and bargaining for power at the top and that is what they have been successfully doing since 2005 when their name was Abadgaran Javan (Young developers).

Meanwhile, a report in Khabar Online featured photos and a long list of the leading members of the Sharian group mainly to show that they are much younger. The website tagged the next parliamentary election in Iran as a competition between young and old conservatives.

So far, the only reaction by Ghalibaf's neo-cons has been highlighting Bazrpash and Rasaei's bad records as well as the unpleasant track record of mayor Zakani in reports in the pro-Ghalibaf daily Sobh-e No and Farda News website which is also close to Ghalibaf. The daily characterized Rasaii as a critic of former IRGC Qods Force Commander Qasem Soleimani hoping it would alienate conservatives.

Khabar Online quoted some unnamed moderate conservatives as saying that one year ahead of the elections Ghalibaf cannot think of anything better than the position he already has

Meanwhile, according to centrist daily Ham-Mihan, Paydari and Sharian aim to knock Ghalibaf out of the Majles in the same way they ousted Haddad Adel a decade ago. Their message to Ghalibaf is that Raisi will definitely serve a second term as Iran's President and there is no chance for Ghalibaf to become Iran's next president. Their second message is that Ghalibaf himself may not be able to become the speaker again. His choices are limited and his days on the Speaker's seat are numbered.

In late February and on the sidelines of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Belgium’s Hadia Lahbib and Iran’s Hossein Amir-Abdollahian met to discuss the situation of Olivier Vandecasteele.

Vandecasteele, 41, was mysteriously lured back to the country last year by ‘a girlfriend’ and was subsequently detained. It is believed his arrest was an attempt to force Belgium to release Iranians in prison for terror offences.

His health is rapidly deteriorating since being in solitary confinement for a year under what is believed to be false allegations of espionage, typical of Iran’s hostage diplomacy. He has also been given a $1m fine.

Lahbib became a vocal supporter of the unrest after she cut her hair in a statement showing solidarity with the country’s ‘woman, life, freedom’ movement. She has, however, been blasted for her ongoing talks with the foreign minister as the two sides try to build bridges.

Daria Safaie, a member of the Belgian Parliament of Iranian origin, lashed out at the Belgian Foreign Minister on Wednesday that her meeting with Amir Abdollahian was “inappropriate”.

“You just kneel… and give them the message that they are more powerful and superior. They are happy with your kneeling and continue to take hostages.”

Amid a deep economic crisis, commentaries about the impact of foreign policy, meaning isolation and sanctions, on the country’s well-being have become more frequent.

Mohammad Hossein Adeli told Ham-Mihan Daily that by using these networks, Iran circumvents US sanctions. "As long as we are doing this, our situation is not normal. This is a costly way that entails high inflation for Iran."

Adeli who was the governor of Iran's Central Bank under President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and the country's ambassador to several key countries under the reformist government of President Mohammad Khatami, said Iran is a country that cannot remain isolated.

He maintained that although some “revolutionaries” advocate isolation as a way of growth, they need to know that even China owes its growth to foreign investment and a $760 billion per annum trade with the United States. Adeli added that "isolation will drag Iran into collapse and instability and its economic development depends on national power and stable and intelligent interaction with the world. That is how China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and Vietnam have successfully survived and their economies grew."

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Adeli further stressed that economic sanctions cause a bigger loss for Iran than any war. He added that Iran is under the pressure of a series of deep and complicated sanctions. The added cost of domestic and international trade under sanctions disrupts Iran's economy and increases the cost of everything.

"People are in trouble for their everyday livelihood and the country cannot develop. When there is no prospect for future, people lose their hope. As a result, law breaking becomes a norm and social relations are disrupted. That, eventually causes revolt in the country," Adeli said.

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Meanwhile, a commentary in the moderate news website Faraz daily maintained that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi's visit to Tehran quickly helped Iran’s currency to rise after the media quoted a few lines from his statement about agreement over cooperation. The commentary asked whether this would bring the government in Tehran to its senses and encourage it to recognize the link between foreign policy and people's livelihood.

According to Faraz Daily, this development clearly highlighted the importance of foreign policy on the country's economy, while Iranian officials have been insisting that their isolationist foreign policy has no impact on the people's livelihood.

At the same time, the commentary observed, that not interacting with the world during several years of economic sanctions has led to a crisis for Iran's people and government.

There are indications that at least some politicians in Iran who are usually trusted by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are encouraging the government, and in fact Khamenei, who single-handedly makes all decisions on all matters including the economy and foreign policy, to be more flexible in their interactions with the West and particularly the United States.

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Iran's former nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi said on Tuesday that Iran should show flexibility in its negotiations with the West in order to end its international isolation.

Salehi said during a speech at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, "Resistance should come along with prudence. When we face serious obstacles, we need to show intelligent flexibility in order to end our isolation." This, Salehi said, is a wise reaction. He also warned Iranian diplomats, "not to create political or diplomatic deadlocks."